John Collins suspension, I would argue, is a bigger issue for the Hawks than the Kings losing Bags. I watched a number of Hawks games earlier this year, and Collins had taken a noticeable jump--especially with his 3 point shooting. Collins ability to stretch the floor with Trae Young was (and maybe will still be) a problem. Then the news hit and everything started to make sense.
The eye ball test and recent play says the Kings win this game primarily on the Fox vs. Young match up. Fox is quite literally the worse physical match up for Young--long, just as quick, more athletic, and will terrorize Young when Young is on the defensive end (having him on skates; layup line). The first game last year, Fox destroyed Young, but in the second game, Young bounced back with a more controlled game. That said, turnovers were and are still a huge issue for Young.
The stats say the following:
1. The Kings have a heavy advantage on offense, especially in 3 point attempts and 3 Pointers made. Surprising, given the common belief that Young is a gunner. Specifically, the Kings shoot 30% more threes than the Hawks and have an 18% 3 PT % advantage as well. Relative to the league average, the Kings are slightly shooting more than the league, but are hitting about the league average. This means the Hawks shoot much less 3 pointers (-21%) than the league and are also hitting (-17%) at a much lower rate.
2. Turnovers are going to be a deciding factor. The Kings have 15% less turnovers than the Hawks. Relative to the league, the Kings average 4% more turnovers per game while the Hawks are averaging 19% more--that's almost two deviations from average (depending on how you chop the range).
3. The Kings have an offensive boarding advantage. 17% delta--with the Kings +7% while the Hawks are -10% from the league average.
4. While the Kings have a decided offensive advantage, the Hawks have a noticeable defensive advantage. Specifically in the area of 3 PT% defensed, steals, and assists defended. Respectively, doing better than the Kings by 23%, 15%, and 13%. This means the Hawks are playing a defense that is fanning out on the perimeter and aggressively playing the passing lanes. Fox's drives will be key, since the middle of the defense should be empty or manned by one person only. Expect a ton of dunks from Holmes as well on pick and rolls. That said, this is going to be an issue for the second unit, who tend to stand there and pound the ball on the perimeter (especially with that Bogi, Cojo, Ariza unit that has sucked all year).
The line was -1.5 Kings. It is now -2.5. The O/U is 224, which my models are saying is the best value--historical average has the score at 205.31. My projection has the score at 202.91 (and 197.92 at a 2.5% discount). That said, the sample size is small, so I don't have a ton of faith on the 202.91 projection--it'll be closer to 224, but I don't see it going over..
Note: All raw data derived from oddsshark.com. I then transfer the data to my own models. It's a fun hobby of mine.
The eye ball test and recent play says the Kings win this game primarily on the Fox vs. Young match up. Fox is quite literally the worse physical match up for Young--long, just as quick, more athletic, and will terrorize Young when Young is on the defensive end (having him on skates; layup line). The first game last year, Fox destroyed Young, but in the second game, Young bounced back with a more controlled game. That said, turnovers were and are still a huge issue for Young.
The stats say the following:
1. The Kings have a heavy advantage on offense, especially in 3 point attempts and 3 Pointers made. Surprising, given the common belief that Young is a gunner. Specifically, the Kings shoot 30% more threes than the Hawks and have an 18% 3 PT % advantage as well. Relative to the league average, the Kings are slightly shooting more than the league, but are hitting about the league average. This means the Hawks shoot much less 3 pointers (-21%) than the league and are also hitting (-17%) at a much lower rate.
2. Turnovers are going to be a deciding factor. The Kings have 15% less turnovers than the Hawks. Relative to the league, the Kings average 4% more turnovers per game while the Hawks are averaging 19% more--that's almost two deviations from average (depending on how you chop the range).
3. The Kings have an offensive boarding advantage. 17% delta--with the Kings +7% while the Hawks are -10% from the league average.
4. While the Kings have a decided offensive advantage, the Hawks have a noticeable defensive advantage. Specifically in the area of 3 PT% defensed, steals, and assists defended. Respectively, doing better than the Kings by 23%, 15%, and 13%. This means the Hawks are playing a defense that is fanning out on the perimeter and aggressively playing the passing lanes. Fox's drives will be key, since the middle of the defense should be empty or manned by one person only. Expect a ton of dunks from Holmes as well on pick and rolls. That said, this is going to be an issue for the second unit, who tend to stand there and pound the ball on the perimeter (especially with that Bogi, Cojo, Ariza unit that has sucked all year).
The line was -1.5 Kings. It is now -2.5. The O/U is 224, which my models are saying is the best value--historical average has the score at 205.31. My projection has the score at 202.91 (and 197.92 at a 2.5% discount). That said, the sample size is small, so I don't have a ton of faith on the 202.91 projection--it'll be closer to 224, but I don't see it going over..
Note: All raw data derived from oddsshark.com. I then transfer the data to my own models. It's a fun hobby of mine.
