King Keegan

I think we might be underselling Keegan’s shooting ability by just describing him as a “good three point shooter”. The guy is literally the most prolific rookie shooter of all time and was pretty much giving the Warriors the “Steph and Klay supernova” treatment at times by the end of the series.

The list of guys his size or bigger who are also elite movement shooters like he is is pretty much just KD and Tatum (and Tatum is debateable). It’s a ridiculously unique skill set for a forward to have and perhaps most importantly makes him the ideal fit next to Sabonis and a couple of high usage downhill guards like Fox and Monk.
I haven’t been this high on a rookie in a while but let’s chill on the Klay comparison. We’re talking about a top 3 shooter of all time with elite defense, Murray projects to being a good defender but he ain’t gonna shoot and defend like prime klay
 
I haven’t been this high on a rookie in a while but let’s chill on the Klay comparison. We’re talking about a top 3 shooter of all time with elite defense, Murray projects to being a good defender but he ain’t gonna shoot and defend like prime klay
I hear what your saying but I'm also not putting a cap on Murray hes a prototypical late bloomer type and has the mental makeup to reach his absolute peak whatever that ends up being.
 
A bigger Klay with equal shot creation maybe. Klay is not and has not been much of a shot creator for his entire career, and because of the system of the Warriors he hasn't had to be a Kobe-like shot creator for them to win several rings. If Murray is equal to Klay then he'll be tantamount to a superstar in my book. The only reason Klay isn't talked about in those terms today is amnesia on how good he was prior to his injuries. Other than Kobe or Wade what SGs have been better than Klay Thompson?

No, less shot creation. Klay is not an iso player but he absolutely could get himself open with the ball in his hands. Not so much anymore.

And you're right, Klay was amazing. Arguably the second greatest shooter of all time. Keegan is highly unlikely to reach the level of prime Klay and that's fine. My comp was more in terms of play style.

I don't want to get stuck on the point. Murray is not a creator and is not going to be, to any significant level. We didn't draft him to be one, and his ceiling is not reliant on it. He projects as a big, elite shooter who can chip in defensively and be a glue guy.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
No, less shot creation. Klay is not an iso player but he absolutely could get himself open with the ball in his hands. Not so much anymore.

And you're right, Klay was amazing. Arguably the second greatest shooter of all time. Keegan is highly unlikely to reach the level of prime Klay and that's fine. My comp was more in terms of play style.

I don't want to get stuck on the point. Murray is not a creator and is not going to be, to any significant level. We didn't draft him to be one, and his ceiling is not reliant on it. He projects as a big, elite shooter who can chip in defensively and be a glue guy.
I think it depends on what we mean in terms of a creator. I don't see Murray as a guy that will ever be great at catching the ball in iso situations on the perimeter and breaking down his man off the dribble. But incorporating some simple post ups to take advantage of mismatches? That I can see him starting to do on the NBA level as early as next season. Likewise, going from passing the ball when a defender closes out quickly to faking a shot or pass to side step into a jumper can be another growth area for Keegan.
 
I think it depends on what we mean in terms of a creator. I don't see Murray as a guy that will ever be great at catching the ball in iso situations on the perimeter and breaking down his man off the dribble. But incorporating some simple post ups to take advantage of mismatches? That I can see him starting to do on the NBA level as early as next season. Likewise, going from passing the ball when a defender closes out quickly to faking a shot or pass to side step into a jumper can be another growth area for Keegan.
Agreed. Both of these areas he can realistically add to his game.

When I think of a creator, I think of someone who can reliably create for himself and others, ie. a playmaker. Keegan can make plays, but he won't be a playmaker. I think we know what that means.
 
The Stats say Keegan is as good a three point shooter as Klay was as a Rookie. Except Keegan played more minutes than Klay as a Rookie and Keegan took more three pointers. The Kings also won more games than the W's during each players Rookie year.

The W's went 23 and 43 Klays rookie Year. Klay has also had the advantage of playing with Curry his whole carreer.

What does this mean? Well to me it means just comparing their Rookie seasons Keegan looks pretty solid compared to Klay.

I think as Keegan grows his game he will get better. He is already pretty dang good.
 
It’s kinda fun to look back on the season that Keegan had. I watched highlights of his first game and they look a lot like playoff Keegan. A lot more drives and mid range stuff mixed in with the 3s. For a long stretch of the season he was basically just taking 3s. If he had more of a mixed bag he might have been even been higher in the rookie of the year race but might have sacrificed the record in the process.

 
The Stats say Keegan is as good a three point shooter as Klay was as a Rookie. Except Keegan played more minutes than Klay as a Rookie and Keegan took more three pointers. The Kings also won more games than the W's during each players Rookie year.

The W's went 23 and 43 Klays rookie Year. Klay has also had the advantage of playing with Curry his whole carreer.

What does this mean? Well to me it means just comparing their Rookie seasons Keegan looks pretty solid compared to Klay.

I think as Keegan grows his game he will get better. He is already pretty dang good.
I don't want to take anything away from Keegan's accomplishments for making the most made 3pters as a rookie, but Keegan is a product of his time and environment. When Klay came into the NBA, the league average of 3pt attempts per game was at 18.4....this season? 34.2. Nearly double!

If you put Klay or Curry in today's game as an NBA rookie, they'd decimate the record.

Keegan also landed in the perfect environment to make all the 3s he did. There was very little pressure on him to do anything else on offense except hit open 3s. He was literally the 5th option in our starting lineup.. Fox and Sabonis drew a lot of the attention for defenses. The best wing on the opposing team guarded Barnes. Murray had a very lush life... more than any other top 10 pick (the discourse of the other rookies playing on "bad teams" is very silly when you consider everything). Keegan went into a great situation.

In Klay's rookie year, Curry only played 26 games. The Warriors were led by David Lee and Monte Ellis..... they finished 13th in the West. You bring up the Kings' record... but we probably still make the playoffs with Kessler starting. Our team has been just that good.

Keegan in his own right will be just fine.. but comparing him to Klay, even rookie Klay is a bit unfair..to Keegan.
 
I don't want to take anything away from Keegan's accomplishments for making the most made 3pters as a rookie, but Keegan is a product of his time and environment. When Klay came into the NBA, the league average of 3pt attempts per game was at 18.4....this season? 34.2. Nearly double!

If you put Klay or Curry in today's game as an NBA rookie, they'd decimate the record.

Keegan also landed in the perfect environment to make all the 3s he did. There was very little pressure on him to do anything else on offense except hit open 3s. He was literally the 5th option in our starting lineup.. Fox and Sabonis drew a lot of the attention for defenses. The best wing on the opposing team guarded Barnes. Murray had a very lush life... more than any other top 10 pick (the discourse of the other rookies playing on "bad teams" is very silly when you consider everything). Keegan went into a great situation.

In Klay's rookie year, Curry only played 26 games. The Warriors were led by David Lee and Monte Ellis..... they finished 13th in the West. You bring up the Kings' record... but we probably still make the playoffs with Kessler starting. Our team has been just that good.

Keegan in his own right will be just fine.. but comparing him to Klay, even rookie Klay is a bit unfair..to Keegan.
Totally unfair, because Keegan’s taller and more likeable.
 
I don't want to take anything away from Keegan's accomplishments for making the most made 3pters as a rookie, but Keegan is a product of his time and environment. When Klay came into the NBA, the league average of 3pt attempts per game was at 18.4....this season? 34.2. Nearly double!

If you put Klay or Curry in today's game as an NBA rookie, they'd decimate the record.
If the record is so easy to break in todays game why was the previous record from the 17/18 season and the second place was 12/13? 5 years later when every team is putting up 50 threes a game and still, It’s Keegan’s name at the top. By your logic the record should be broken nearly every year.

Klay had 500 threes in his first 3 years which was a record. 211 in his second year. Let’s not pretend they weren’t jacking up a ton of 3s on that squad.
 
If the record is so easy to break in todays game why was the previous record from the 17/18 season and the second place was 12/13? 5 years later when every team is putting up 50 threes a game and still, It’s Keegan’s name at the top. By your logic the record should be broken nearly every year.

Klay had 500 threes in his first 3 years which was a record. 211 in his second year. Let’s not pretend they weren’t jacking up a ton of 3s on that squad.
TL;DR version: NBA defenses let Keegan shoot a bunch of open catch and shoot 3s.

As I said in the rest of the post, the Kings' environment allows for Keegan to put up a bunch of 3s and open shots because he's the team's 5th option in the starting lineup. I've got some stats to back it up:

  • Keegan is top 10 among all NBA players in 3pt FG frequency %
  • 6.3 FGA out of 9.8 FGA attempts per game were from 3pt
  • 5.9 3pt attempts out of the 6.3 3pt attempts were classified as "open" or "wide open"
  • 93.6% of all Keegan's 3pt attempts were at least open... this is one of the highest in the NBA
    • He's top 10 among all NBA players in "wide open" 3pt FG frequency %
      • he averaged 3.6 3pt attempts a game where the closest defender was 6+ ft away
    • He's top 30 among all NBA players in "open" 3pt FG frequency %
      • he averaged 2.3 3pt attempts a game where the closest defender was 4-6ft away
  • Keegan is top 10 among all NBA player in catch and shoot 3pt attempts per game
    • 5.8 out of 6.3 3pt attempts were on catch and shoot
It was the perfect storm for Keegan to break the record. Two things are true: Keegan is a good 3pt shooter. Keegan also gets more open 3pt looks than most guys in the NBA. Do you blame the other team for leaving him open? They'd rather shut Sabonis and Fox down to make the rookie beat them. This paid off the for the Kings because Keegan actually did make them at a good clip.

Keegan's record will be broken in the next 5 years.. possibly next 3. Here are the scenarios where I see it being broken:
  • rookie gets the keys to the franchise and chucks up 3s (Trae/Mitchell)
  • rookie goes on a loaded team and primarily shoots open 3s (Keegan)
  • rookie is a pure 3pt specialist with a limited game (Duncan Robinson)
  • rookie is the next GOAT shooter (Curry/Klay)
All of these would require the rookie to play big minutes. Keegan played nearly 30mpg, only 5 rookies played more minutes than him this year. Most played around 15-25mpg.
 
all those points could be used in an argument that it will be tough to break because as you said it was a “perfect storm” that led to his numbers. Rookies are given the keys to the franchise every year but there really hasn’t been any of those types come close.

I do think it will be broken and it won’t be surprising if it’s in the next few years but I still think it’s silly to dismiss the accomplishment. Keegan gets open looks because he has high BBIQ. He shoots a high percentage because he is an elite shooter and never takes bad shots. He took the majority of his shots from behind the arc because that was the role he was asked to play. He played through injury and stayed on the court. He played big minutes because he impacts winning. Keegan was 12th in made threes in the entire league with only the top 4 guys having any real separation (5-12 were within a few made 3s)
 
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I don't want to take anything away from Keegan's accomplishments for making the most made 3pters as a rookie, but Keegan is a product of his time and environment. When Klay came into the NBA, the league average of 3pt attempts per game was at 18.4....this season? 34.2. Nearly double!

If you put Klay or Curry in today's game as an NBA rookie, they'd decimate the record.

Keegan also landed in the perfect environment to make all the 3s he did. There was very little pressure on him to do anything else on offense except hit open 3s. He was literally the 5th option in our starting lineup.. Fox and Sabonis drew a lot of the attention for defenses. The best wing on the opposing team guarded Barnes. Murray had a very lush life... more than any other top 10 pick (the discourse of the other rookies playing on "bad teams" is very silly when you consider everything). Keegan went into a great situation.

In Klay's rookie year, Curry only played 26 games. The Warriors were led by David Lee and Monte Ellis..... they finished 13th in the West. You bring up the Kings' record... but we probably still make the playoffs with Kessler starting. Our team has been just that good.

Keegan in his own right will be just fine.. but comparing him to Klay, even rookie Klay is a bit unfair..to Keegan.
So Klays improvement parallels Curry playing…..hhhmmm.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I think it depends on what we mean in terms of a creator. I don't see Murray as a guy that will ever be great at catching the ball in iso situations on the perimeter and breaking down his man off the dribble. But incorporating some simple post ups to take advantage of mismatches? That I can see him starting to do on the NBA level as early as next season. Likewise, going from passing the ball when a defender closes out quickly to faking a shot or pass to side step into a jumper can be another growth area for Keegan.
Yes, And he's already putting the ball on the floor and doing runners in the lane. How many 6'8" guys do that? I'd also add that ability in the shot-creator column. That along with some post ups and the fake-side step you mention fits. Also, I don't see why he couldn't do a jab step step back at the 3 point point line either. Lastly, the best thing I saw him do all season was flying around a pick set at the top of the 3 point line and stopping with perfect balance to bury a 3 point shot. You don't see that every day from 6'8" guys. There is a lot to work with there.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Yes, And he's already putting the ball on the floor and doing runners in the lane. How many 6'8" guys do that? I'd also add that ability in the shot-creator column. That along with some post ups and the fake-side step you mention fits. Also, I don't see why he couldn't do a jab step step back at the 3 point point line either. Lastly, the best thing I saw him do all season was flying around a pick set at the top of the 3 point line and stopping with perfect balance to bury a 3 point shot. You don't see that every day from 6'8" guys. There is a lot to work with there.
If Keegan learns the Dirk fadeaway, it’s ova
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
A lot of people have been projecting that Keegan can be our 3rd star. How can we ensure that his growth gets towards that?

It feels like Keegan doesn't understand just how good he is. He had a tendency to be passive and content as the 5th option out of our starting lineup. We saw that passiveness for the first 3 games of the playoffs until he finally changed it up for the rest of the series. A lot of the discourse about his future kinda reminds me of the same for O.G. Anunoby and De'Andre Hunter. Both fan bases were really excited about their bigger wings and saw them as future #2 stars. However, both guys have current plateaued. They're still good players, but haven't been anything more than complimentary role players. How can he have a similar Franz Wagner jump? In his 2nd year, Wagner has averaged an impressive 18.6pts 4.1rebs 3.5asts 1stl on 48.5/36.1/84.2.

Looking at Keegan's 2nd year, how can he progress towards stardom? Do we ask him to incorporate his college game where he absolutely dominated as a post scorer? Or do we ask him to be more of a face-up ball handler who attacks from the 3pt line? Or do we develop him as more into a Klay Thompson off-ball shooter who's primarily out in the perimeter?

Some very interesting things to think about. More important thing anything will be Keegan's mentality about having a bigger offensive role on this team.
If you watched Keegan his freshman year at Iowa, he played a very similar role that he played with the Kings his past season. He was just fitting in and trying to do what the team needed him to do. However, in his Sophomore year at Iowa, he was asked to be the star of the team, and he was. He scored from everywhere on the floor. 3 pointers, mid-range, post ups and attacking downhill at the basket. I suspect you'll see a similar jump with him next season.

He wants to be great, and he's a very hard worker. He knows where he needs to improve, and I love the fact that he said he was going to spend the summer working out with Sabonis. I'd love to see him run a two man game similar to what Huerter and Sabonis do. He does need to tighten his handle and get a little stronger. But I'm not worried about him. I think he'll eventually be an all star. He has that kind of upside.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude

Kris's combine measurements came in and since he and Keegan are identical twins, you'd think we'd finally have a pretty good sense of Keegan's measurements now but even back in their Iowa days, it always felt like Keegan was a bit longer and bigger than his brother so who knows?

(Also did not expect the Murray twins to have a bigger wingspan than Paul George.)