Draft Express:
One of the more disturbing cases considering the magnitude of his decision as far as his long-term development goes, we’re receiving strong indications from numerous sources that Uconn's freshman Hasheem Thabeet is seriously considering entering the draft. This has all the makings of a potential disaster, eerily reminiscent to another highly regarded Big East prospect a few years ago--Chris Taft.
Compared to Tyrus Thomas, and billed as "an athletic Mutombo" by a preseason article written by Andy Katz, Thabeet has been blocking shots at a nice rate, but everything else about him so far has been a massive disappointment. He's cracked double-digits in the scoring column just five times this season thus far--against Fairfield, Albany, Pepperdine, Coppin State and St. John's--and has used his massive 7-3 frame to pull down 10 rebounds just four times, again against the weakest competition UConn has faced. Defensively, beyond his shot-blocking, Thabeet has been lit up by every (even marginal) NBA prospect he's gone up against, whether it’s giving up 13 points and 10 rebounds to an equally raw freshman in Omar Samham (St. Mary's); 19 points, 11 rebounds to Herbert Hill(Providence); 19 points, 11 rebounds to David Padgett (Louisville); 21 points to DJ White (Indiana); or 22 points, 19 rebounds to Aaron Gray (Pitt).
Offensively, we've seen little to no progress since the beginning of the season. Thabeet still shoots the ball from the back of his hand, still doesn't understand how to properly bend his knees and go up for a simple dunk, is not able to palm the ball despite having very big hands, and is almost incapable of catching a post-entry pass due to his poor hands and non-existent reaction time. At this point, considering the way he looks, it's safe to say that he’s light years away from being able to contribute anything on this end of the floor.
Most people would tell you that's fine, because Thabeet is 7-3, has a very good frame, and moves better than 98% of the 7-footers we've evaluated...meaning he has a very good upside. "Saer Sene was drafted 10th!” they say, not realizing the difference between last year’s draft class and this one, while also failing to take into consideration the stark differences between the two players as far as their work ethic and attitudes are concerned.
The fact that he has a huge upside is probably true, but at the same time, we have to consider just what the likelihood is of Thabeet ever actually reaching his ceiling and achieving that upside, which is just as important a part of the equation, particularly if he’s to rot on an NBA bench for the next four years. That probability of reaching said upside takes a significant nose dive when you actually watch him play, look at the way he carries himself on the floor, and talk to people who have spent time watching him practice.
Thabeet seems to have little to no interest in using his size and strength to help his team as a rebounder, not playing with much energy, refusing to get dirty and go after loose balls, and displaying a very low basketball IQ in everything to do with his anticipation skills. In practice, people who have watched him have come away with the impression that Thabeet is not a hard worker at all. He makes faces when asked to do extra work, and generally acts like he's being punished by being required to do crucial drills for his development that other players don't participate in. This lack of a high-energy motor and work ethic is usually the kiss of death for a player who is as raw as he is. He will need years of individual work before anything can be expected from him at the NBA level. Once teams find out what we're learning, if they haven't already, it can be more than enough to drop a player like him into the second round. Contrary to popular opinion, the NBA is not nearly as interested in developing raw talent from scratch as many would lead you to believe, as the coaching staff just doesn’t have time to teach the fundamentals of the game during a grueling 82 game season.
Usually we would not go out of our way to blast a freshman who clearly came into college with the billing of a project, having only played basketball for a few years. The thing is: we feel that considering the unaccountable hype around him--currently projected as the #6 pick in the 2007 draft by nbadraft.net and the 16th best prospect by ESPN's Chad Ford—there needs to be another side out there to put things in proper perspective. Players, families, AAU coaches and agents process all this information and often act on it without being able to find anyone that’s able to give them a second opinion (NBA people are generally not interested in taking part in this process), but when disaster strikes, the player will have to pick the pieces up by himself while outlets like ours move onto the next batch of prospects. Chris Taft was rated similarly by the same exact people at this point in the season two years ago (ourselves included). He ended up going in the mid-second round and is currently out of the NBA.
What’s sad is that Thabeet is actually contemplating making a selfless decision that has just as much to do with his family situation as it does with himself. His mother and siblings are still in Tanzania, and his father passed away just a few years ago. It’s a difficult decision indeed for a teenager to make, especially with the lure of so much money looking so close. The question is: how much in long-term earnings will he be losing by leaving so early? No one can say that for sure, and plenty depends on Thabeet’s internal motivation.
We don't doubt the fact that Thabeet could very well end up figuring things out and reach his massive potential in a couple of years, but his chances of doing so while sitting on an NBA bench significantly lessen in our opinion, as compared with opting to stay in college and learning from his very well respected coach, Jim Calhoun. UConn has developed players like Emeka Okafor and Hilton Armstrong into lottery picks despite starting off with much less to work with in terms of pure physical attributes, but it took them three and four years in college respectively. For the final word on this topic, we'll defer to Louisville Head Coach and former NBA head coach and General Manger Rick Pitino, who has sent quite a few players to the league in his own right:
"A guy like Thabeet, who we recruited, three years from now will be one of the best players in college basketball…Or, if people put the notion in his head because he's 7-foot-3, he'll sit [on] the bench [in the NBA], he'll never make a second contract, and never make any money in his life. So, hopefully, the right people get hold of him and be intelligent."
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Just thought people could use a good reality check about him from the professionals. I don't think people realize how much he truly has to overcome.
