[Grades] Grades v. Warriors 11/28/2015

When will you become a Warriors fan?

  • A few more losses like this...

    Votes: 2 3.6%
  • When they win another title

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • When the pain becomes too much

    Votes: 2 3.6%
  • When they trade for DeMarcus

    Votes: 8 14.5%
  • Already am

    Votes: 4 7.3%
  • When pigs fly

    Votes: 7 12.7%
  • They can bite me

    Votes: 18 32.7%
  • Screw that, I hope the whole damn place sinks into the ocean

    Votes: 14 25.5%

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Meanwhile the Spurs are quietly 14 and 3 while being 26th in pace. Vlade!!! please help!!!

You know why the Spurs are 26th in pace? because Popovich realized his players do not fit that mold and instead is having them commit to defense and half court offense. You don't see LeMarcus Aldridge chucking up 3's left and right and running up and down the court. Ahh how I envy them...must be nice to be able to accept what you have and adapt along the way instead of living in denial.
 
You know why the Spurs are 26th in pace? because Popovich realized his players do not fit that mold and instead is having them commit to defense and half court offense. You don't see LeMarcus Aldridge chucking up 3's left and right and running up and down the court. Ahh how I envy them...must be nice to be able to accept what you have and adapt along the way instead of living in denial.

It's what allowed them to get Aldridge. They assured him they weren't going to force him into the system they've been running the last half decade. Recognizing Parker couldn't be relied upon to run a up tempo system anymore and instead transitioning to a half court team built around Aldridge and Leonard. Watching them this season you'd never guess that just a couple years ago they won a championship with Diaw at center.
 
You know why the Spurs are 26th in pace? because Popovich realized his players do not fit that mold and instead is having them commit to defense and half court offense. You don't see LeMarcus Aldridge chucking up 3's left and right and running up and down the court. Ahh how I envy them...must be nice to be able to accept what you have and adapt along the way instead of living in denial.

Great post! That is exactly the thing that makes a coach a great coach. Being able to analyze your roster and understanding what they are able to do best. David Blatt of the Cavaliers is similar, but it is more difficult to see because of Bron's dominance.
 
All I can say is we need to decide what we want and do it. We are too dependent on Cousins for him to be getting hurt all the time. So either slow it down or trade him. This year is just like last. We still can't win despite the hype pre season. The 49ers are losing. I just can't get no satisfaction.
 
All I can say is we need to decide what we want and do it. We are too dependent on Cousins for him to be getting hurt all the time. So either slow it down or trade him. This year is just like last. We still can't win despite the hype pre season. The 49ers are losing. I just can't get no satisfaction.

I can only imagine what would have happened if the Warriors did that a few years ago with Curry, or the Pelicans were to do it now with Davis.
 
Nobody is going faster than us on offense.

We lead the entire league in Pace.

Woohoo! We #1! What basketball geniuses we have been inflicted with.

Why is it that other teams appear to me to be playing as fast or faster on offense than we are? Half the time Rondo is quite deliberate bringing the ball into the front court and also often equally deliberate when he gets there. I guess "Pace" is a standard number written on the wall some place and each team has his own, I am not familiar with the stat. Because of these reasons I have a hard time believing we are fastest on offense, and if we are, because of the observations above, it can't be that big of a deal. There s a disconnect here, somewhere.
 
Why is it that other teams appear to me to be playing as fast or faster on offense than we are? Half the time Rondo is quite deliberate bringing the ball into the front court and also often equally deliberate when he gets there. I guess "Pace" is a standard number written on the wall some place and each team has his own, I am not familiar with the stat. Because of these reasons I have a hard time believing we are fastest on offense, and if we are, because of the observations above, it can't be that big of a deal. There s a disconnect here, somewhere.

Well the formula for PACE seems to be:

48 * ((Team Poss + Opp Poss) / (2 * (Team MP / 5))) according to http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
So what does this mean?

In a Kings game, there tend to be a lot of possessions. That's basically all this stat shows.
And you have to take into account, that possessions are defined as follows:

Possessions (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); the formula for teams is 0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV)).

So as far as I understand this mess things like turnovers, freethrows and rebounds count into the possession stat.

It doesn't show, when the Kings offense is at her best. And that's the interesting part, because I tend to agree with your observation, that Rondo slows things down quite often.
But more importantly we seem to be most efficient, when running breaks and when our first set play leads to a good look. We run into trouble, when the first play is defended well and we need to create something new with 12 seconds or less on the shotclock. Than we fall back to ISO Gay, ISO Cuz or even the horrible attempt to ISO Collison and the possession ends with a contested shot more often than not.
Of course we take ill advised shots early in the clock sometimes, but that doesn't seem to be the norm. From my point of view most shots, that we take early in the clock, are decent looks.
And no matter how you put it - the best shot in basketball is the open shot (Ok not for Rondo and Willie, but those two pass up open looks regularly).

I don't know, if the whole PACE thing is really that important as the discussion here seems to indicate.
 
I don't know, if the whole PACE thing is really that important as the discussion here seems to indicate.

Pace is actually rather critical to everything we are talking about.

1) Pace DOES create more open shots...for both teams. It is thus an offensive gooser for statheads who only see half the floor.

2) BUT it makes it much harder to lock up a team defensively because the defense is constantly scrambled and so many plays are "numbers" plays in th open or semi-open court

3) and it PARTICULARLY dilutes the defensive (and offensive) effectiveness of big men, who are slower to get up and down the court, and who's looming presence inside in a halfcourt defense is largely wasted in an open court game.


Thus given our team structure pace is intimately involved in our inability to get control of things defensively. Pace is a choice, and one that Karl has made consistently almost no matter what for 20 years now. Some further notes:

4) in order to be effective defensively in a hyper-paced system normally you have to be an aggressive, gambling, scrambling mess of a defense You should be a defense notching huge numbers of steals and blocks and other surface defensive stats, while conceding the occasional open shot when the gambles fail. That's the way Karl has liked to coach defense since the 90s. BUT, we don't have the personnel for that. On our whole team we only have three players who have ever been or could ever be defensively disruptive (Moreland = possibly the 4th), but those days appear largely behind Rondo, the coach won't even play WCS consistently, and even Boogie has been saving himself from foul trouble by keeping his hand out of the cookie jar -- a good thing unless you are trying to scramble things on defense. In short, we don't have many defensive playmakers. Given our personnel a much more conservative defensive philosophy emphasizing staying big, playing defense in the halfcourt, and using our length (if everybody is at their natural positions) to cover ground and squeeze the open gaps in the defense would be a much more natural fit. But Karl isn't trying to design a defense to fit our personnel.

5) I don't recall all this switch switch switch everything all the time stuff as being part of the Karl lexicon. Maybe its always been and I just wasn't paying attention, maybe its new. Either way it works much much better if you have a bunch of midsized players bunched between 6'4" to 6'10" let's say, all capable of fighting in the post and moving on the perimeter. You could adopt that tactic with a team like Atlanta for instance. But once again our roster is particularly ill suited for it with out of our main rotation players, 2 of the 9 being little scrawny PGs, and 3 of them being near 7 footers. Less than half the rotation is a mid-sized jalopy, and the rest of the guys are all players who classically get taken advantage of in a switch (WCS has potential to not do so).

6) and of course the last Pace note is this: Pace is very often used as a disguise for lack of talent. Any athlete can run, and in a pace game a lot of shots are open shots and layups that talented and not so talented players are both going to hit. So if you don't have anybody who can create, get out and run and you can generate offense that way even without effective halfcourt players. All it takes is a willingness to lose defensive control. On the other hand when you have one of the league's preeminent floor generals running the team, and one of its 10 best players at center, as well as another 1 on 1 scoring specialist at SF, you CAN score in the halfcourt. You don't need the gimmick. In fact one of the huge and unsung advantages of having a superstar is precisely that they can score against a set defense, thus allowing you NOT to have to speed up the game, thus allowing you to play a better defensive game, while still getting enough points from your stars on offense.

So for all of the above reasons the question of pace is intimately involved in the question of a lot of what is going on with the Kings. Its a choice, and not one made to benefit our players, but rather to benefit an naive casual fan/entertain me with ooh dunk!! owner and an old ideologue of a coach who knows nothing else.
 
Pace is actually rather critical to everything we are talking about.

1) Pace DOES create more open shots...for both teams. It is thus an offensive gooser for statheads who only see half the floor.

2) BUT it makes it much harder to lock up a team defensively because the defense is constantly scrambled and so many plays are "numbers" plays in th open or semi-open court

3) and it PARTICULARLY dilutes the defensive (and offensive) effectiveness of big men, who are slower to get up and down the court, and who's looming presence inside in a halfcourt defense is largely wasted in an open court game.

Is Cousins effective shooting percentage down appreciably from a year ago? If not, how would you measure "effectiveness" of him before pace and after pace.
 
4) in order to be effective defensively in a hyper-paced system normally you have to be an aggressive, gambling, scrambling mess of a defense

Let's take a bit of a step away from the ledge here. Our "hyper-paced" system averages 99.8 possessions per game, which translates to using 14.4 seconds on the shot clock on average. The league average pace is 96.4 possessions per game, which translates to using 14.9 seconds on the shot clock on average.

We're playing a bit faster than the rest of the league, but we're talking 1.03 times faster. Mountain, meet mole hill.
 
Thanks, Brck. Very interesting, very informative and very persuasive respons to the several themes, mine and others. The defensive impact s the biggest negative it seems to me. I'll hang n there with Karl a least until his ways have had a thorough vetting which may be a while with key players limping as much as they have. Your response helps me better understand where you are coming from. Thanks.
 
Is Cousins effective shooting percentage down appreciably from a year ago? If not, how would you measure "effectiveness" of him before pace and after pace.

Offesnively? Cousins is doing fine, by the numbers at least. That's really a testament to his unique versatility, although it should be noted that if you watch games, he amusingly kind of plays things at his own pace and comes up the court last. I also have a raised eyebrow about the entire approach -- its gimmicky. I have never believed a 33% 3pt shooter = a 50% 2pt shooter, and a big part of that is the effect on the defense of all those extra missed shots and potential runouts. I also have long believed that you get extra value out of great post players by the collapsing defenses on them and open shots that generates, and we aren't getting that either, so Cuz is scoring, but is it helping other guys get open?

The hard thing to assess though is how he would be doing without Rondo, because that's something he's never had in years past, and Rondo is getting him several free hoops a game with passing brilliance. Cuz's turnovers are also well down, and again Rondo handling the ball instead should be helping there.
 
Pace is one problem. Another is our perimeter oriented offense when our two top offensive threats are better inside the arc. Puts an entirely different pressure on defenses when you attack inside or out of the high post with someone like Cuz.

Our halfcourt sets are atrocious. I'm even a little surprised by it and thought Karl with all his creativity would do a fair amount better there. But the screens are rare, the off ball cuts/slashes almost non-existent and playing off the attention Cuz would attract, not a focal point. We get an incredibly small number of good looks off the attention Cuz draws and playing thru him. Inexcusable.

What the pace stats don't show is Karl's intent to look for the first open perimeter shot. Hurts our defense as we're less organized recovering in transition. The pace also causes more turnovers which also effects our defense. When you combine that with our elementary switch everything game plan, it's no wonder we're so poor defensively.

If there was a stat for how quickly we jack up a shot without getting a touch in/off the post, we'd be near the top of the league. No one can convince me we wouldn't be better off in a more Rick style offense which we had in our golden era, transition quickly when the opportunity is there but if not, play off the post/elbow with far more misdirection/screens/cuts off the ball. We also need to see more Rondo/Cuz and Rudy/Cuz P&Rs. There is far, far too much of Marco/Ben/Rudy/DC in particular stuck on the perimeter resorting to creating 1v1. Hell, that's how we use Cuz the majority of the time. If Rick used Webb that way we wouldn't have had the success we did.
 
Pace is one problem. Another is our perimeter oriented offense when our two top offensive threats are better inside the arc. Puts an entirely different pressure on defenses when you attack inside or out of the high post with someone like Cuz.

Our halfcourt sets are atrocious. I'm even a little surprised by it and thought Karl with all his creativity would do a fair amount better there. But the screens are rare, the off ball cuts/slashes almost non-existent and playing off the attention Cuz would attract, not a focal point. We get an incredibly small number of good looks off the attention Cuz draws and playing thru him. Inexcusable.

What the pace stats don't show is Karl's intent to look for the first open perimeter shot. Hurts our defense as we're less organized recovering in transition. The pace also causes more turnovers which also effects our defense. When you combine that with our elementary switch everything game plan, it's no wonder we're so poor defensively.

If there was a stat for how quickly we jack up a shot without getting a touch in/off the post, we'd be near the top of the league. No one can convince me we wouldn't be better off in a more Rick style offense which we had in our golden era, transition quickly when the opportunity is there but if not, play off the post/elbow with far more misdirection/screens/cuts off the ball. We also need to see more Rondo/Cuz and Rudy/Cuz P&Rs. There is far, far too much of Marco/Ben/Rudy/DC in particular stuck on the perimeter resorting to creating 1v1. Hell, that's how we use Cuz the majority of the time. If Rick used Webb that way we wouldn't have had the success we did.

I've been trying to analyze what kind of offense were playing, and to be honest, it's a bit confusing at times. I know the dribble drive offense pretty well. I watch a lot of Kentucky basketball and that's the offense they run, although last year they went away from it quite a bit because they had so many big men on the team. I'm a fan of run when you can, but don't force it. More often than not, you force yourself into making a mistake than the other team. The thing is, you can only run effectively when you get a defensive stop. Most of our break points come off of stops. So defense should be our top priority if we want to be running all the time.

I loved Adelman's offense. Ball movement combined with player movement and double screens. Very similar to what the Spurs run. I like Cousins in the high post more than the low post, although I'm not against posting up low with the right matchup. I just think Cousins can operate more effectively out of the high post because it gives him so many options, and he's a lot harder to defend there. He can see the floor better from there, and if the other team wants to double him there and leave the basket open, good luck. So far, I only see two players that look like their playing the dribble drive offense and that's Rondo and Casspi. And now that I think of it, Koufos. In a normal dribble drive offense, the big man is the clean up man who lurks near the basket. WCS does that, but is largely ignored, and too often, gets outmuscled at the basket.

I think Gay is trying to play the way Karl wants, but it's just not working. He's obviously uncomfortable and more often than not, he gets himself into untenable situations. Some people seem to have a misconception about Cousins, saying he needs to get more touches etc. Truth is, he's actually shooting the ball more this year than at any other time in his career. He's averaging 20 shots a game. The criticism should be, if anyone has a criticism, that he's taking too many jumpshots. Personally, if he can continue to shoot 38% from the three, I have a hard time being critical of that. Although I'm still in a "Oh No" frame of mind until it goes in.

Lastly, I'm not against the type of defense were attempting to play. It's basically a semi zone defense. The problem with it, is that it doesn't work well with small players on the floor. With our switches, were going to end up in mismatches and with Ben, Rondo, and Collison on the floor at the same time, which has happened, it's a buffet of choices for the other team as to who they want on the mismatch. It actually worked well for a while against the Warriors in the first quarter because they were essentially going with a three guard line up, inserting Rush in for Barnes. We have a lot of problems..
 
I've been trying to analyze what kind of offense were playing, and to be honest, it's a bit confusing at times. I know the dribble drive offense pretty well. I watch a lot of Kentucky basketball and that's the offense they run, although last year they went away from it quite a bit because they had so many big men on the team. I'm a fan of run when you can, but don't force it. More often than not, you force yourself into making a mistake than the other team. The thing is, you can only run effectively when you get a defensive stop. Most of our break points come off of stops. So defense should be our top priority if we want to be running all the time.

I loved Adelman's offense. Ball movement combined with player movement and double screens. Very similar to what the Spurs run. I like Cousins in the high post more than the low post, although I'm not against posting up low with the right matchup. I just think Cousins can operate more effectively out of the high post because it gives him so many options, and he's a lot harder to defend there. He can see the floor better from there, and if the other team wants to double him there and leave the basket open, good luck. So far, I only see two players that look like their playing the dribble drive offense and that's Rondo and Casspi. And now that I think of it, Koufos. In a normal dribble drive offense, the big man is the clean up man who lurks near the basket. WCS does that, but is largely ignored, and too often, gets outmuscled at the basket.

I think Gay is trying to play the way Karl wants, but it's just not working. He's obviously uncomfortable and more often than not, he gets himself into untenable situations. Some people seem to have a misconception about Cousins, saying he needs to get more touches etc. Truth is, he's actually shooting the ball more this year than at any other time in his career. He's averaging 20 shots a game. The criticism should be, if anyone has a criticism, that he's taking too many jumpshots. Personally, if he can continue to shoot 38% from the three, I have a hard time being critical of that. Although I'm still in a "Oh No" frame of mind until it goes in.

Lastly, I'm not against the type of defense were attempting to play. It's basically a semi zone defense. The problem with it, is that it doesn't work well with small players on the floor. With our switches, were going to end up in mismatches and with Ben, Rondo, and Collison on the floor at the same time, which has happened, it's a buffet of choices for the other team as to who they want on the mismatch. It actually worked well for a while against the Warriors in the first quarter because they were essentially going with a three guard line up, inserting Rush in for Barnes. We have a lot of problems..

Great post. I think you're spot-on about the biggest flaw with the defense. Switching off of picks isn't necessarily a problem if you do it well -- Miami's big three comes to mind -- but when combined with the extreme small ball lineups we've been running it puts us into unwinnable match ups like Rondo or Collison isolated against the other team's PF and C in the post, which is happening far too often. And the defense was pretty effective early on against GS and also the first few minutes after halftime. We couldn't match their physicality though and as the game went on their reinforcements came in fresh and completely outclassed our over-matched bench unit (which has been playing as many minutes as the starters have most nights so it's unrealistic to expect more energy from them). Theoretically having mobile bigs like Cousins and Cauley-Stein who can slide their feet well enough to stay in front of most guards would work to our advantage, but only if they're on the floor of course. And that still doesn't help you when their C is posting up our PG. If we're going to stick with the switching defense, when and how we send the extra help defender is going to be the key to making it work.

Also, I posted in the last game thread that Willie Cauley-Stein needs to get stronger to hold position in the post and you reacted negatively, but you basically said the same thing here. He's getting out-muscled under the basket too often. Most young PFs and Cs need to get stronger to match the physicality of the NBA game though. I didn't mean it as a knock on him or his preparation, it's just a drawback of making a rookie into a key part of the rotation early on. We saw the same thing with Ben (who still needs to get stronger) and Nik to a lesser extent.
 
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A point of order about Karl and Pace:

Coaches would have been idiotic to give up the unique advantage they have in Denver - they can get many wins simply by out-running their opponents, due to the mile-high elevation and decreased oxygen in Denver.
But he's not in Denver at elevation - he's in Sacramento.

I'm beginning to wonder if Karl even realizes the effect/advantage he had in Denver, that he doesn't have here.

BTW - if we're #1 in pace this year but losing bad, what excuse/rationale does Vivek/Karl have in promoting pace?
What would their reasoning be to continue pushing the pace?

"If only we were faster than the #1 pace, we'd start winning more."
 
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