It's all about allowing the other team free layups to lull them into a false sense of security.Derrick Williams had a +20 and the next closest King was Andre Miller with +11
[Game] Game 63:Kings @ Hornets,3/11/15 - 4:00 pdt, 7:00 edt
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TheJewishKing
G-League
I can't really comprehend how anyone can say Casspi is garbage and isn't good enough for the Kings, honestly, sports fans have a short memory, when a player struggles for a certain period of time then he is no longer good for the team, he is trash/ garbage or whatever, it's really inappropriate nor a smart thing to say, because if we take a look on the entire season thus far, Casspi is the best player to come off the bench for the Kings this season, really excelled and flourished under coach Malone and then regressed a little bit due to certain injuries and coaching changes, when George Karl was hired Casspi was initially very well helping the Kings out and played with the same sparks and energy we used to see in the first half of the season, since the all-star weekend his field goals percentages slightly regressed, but he is still very valuable off the bench and plays with a lot of toughness and willingness.
Quite frankly it wouldn't be too much for me to say that Casspi is an integral part of the Kings bench, (excluding Miller), other than Casspi nobody had a pretty much stable contribution this season, Casspi is having a pretty decent season thus far as a Kings player, and I believe he is an important asset for the Kings.
twslam07
All-Star
I've noticed this for some time as well. He really struggles against players who can contest the peak of his shot. Gay's size, length, athleticism, & release point make it very easy for him to shoot over people, but when matched up with players who have similar length and athleticism, he has trouble. He really shouldn't be facing up and isoing against these types of players. He takes way too many bad/contested shots when going up against these guys. He needs to know that he'll have to heavily rely on using pick and rolls to get a switch or just to dislodge the defender a bit to give him the ability to take a good shot. He'll have to move off the ball to try to boost his scoring while staying efficient. And so on and so forth. It's about playing smarter, not harder (AKA forcing the issue)
I would still assume he wouldn't have the best offensive game of his life even if he's playing within himself (not isoing these players) and knows his limitations, so Gay has to go into these matchups knowing it's going to be a tough battle and that he should never force the issue. But most importantly in these matchups, he should be expending much more energy defensively. If he understands that his offensive role might be a little more limited this game, he should be getting after it defensively and use that extra energy on that side of the floor to win his matchup. You can win your matchup using either offense or defense. I think Gay sometimes might be of the mindset that winning his matchup is all about what happens on the offensive side rather than valuing both the offensive and defensive side.
Obviously, it's much easier said than done.
I like casspi's fire but would prefer we didn't rely on him as much next year unless we had better outside shooting off the bench.
TheJewishKing
G-League
You might be right, I can somewhat agree with you, Casspi, whether we like it or not, was utilized as a sixth man this season for the Kings, and if to be honest he was doing a very decent job at it in the beginning of the season under coach Malone.
If the Kings want a strong bench Casspi will not be able to be a sixth-man for the Kings anymore, and that's more than O.K., because Casspi can be a legit 8th man off the bench and still contributes and play with fire. toughness and enthusiasm, I believe the Kings should develop their bench more but I also believe that Casspi should be an integral piece of it in the next season, because he really is a very important asset for the Kings.
Let's put it this way, I would spend more than a couple million to retain him. At that price, regardless of where he is in the rotation, his energy alone may be worth it. Any more than that and he's probably taking money that could be used on a better fit.
That's assuming he doesn't improve his 3 point shot.
twslam07
All-Star
To your last point, our bench is very bad. Saying he's the best of the worst isn't really a strong argument...
Onto your first point, I too thought Casspi's decline was due to all of these coaching changes, possible injuries, etc., but now I'm starting to see a completely new story unfold.
First off, the way Casspi plays is very much inline with how Coach Karl coaches. This system they are currently using should maximize his talent, not regress it.
Secondly, you said a couple things that I found amusing:
Regressed a little bit? Slightly regressed? He's practically fallen off a cliff.
FG% by month:
Nov = 54%
Dec = 51%
Jan = 56%
Feb = 36%
Mar = 39%
FG% by coach:
Malone = 54%
Corbin = 47%
Karl = 37%
You notice how as the season has gone on, his FG% has continued to slip? I think there is another explanation to why this is. After watching Casspi this entire season, it just sort of clicked with me this past week, and when I checked the stats, it supported what my eyes were telling me. Before I go into it further, let's take a peak at Casspi's % of FGA by Distance over his career (just shows where the majority of his FGAs are coming from on the floor):
Do you notice anything strange about this year compared to every single other year in the league? His 3 PTA has dropped dramatically while his 10 footers to the 3pt line have dropped as well. In the meantime his 0-3 footers and 3-10 footers have gone up significantly.
What this says to me is that at the beginning of the year, NBA defenders had an idea of what Casspi likes to do based on his first 5 years in the league. He likes to shoot threes. So how do defenders play him? They assume he's going to take the three when the ball comes his way. However, Casspi decided to do a complete 180 of what his scouting report said. Now, he rarely shoots threes anymore and when the ball does come his way he does a quick ball fake and immediately drives to the lane.
So now after a few months in the league, the scouting report begins to change on Casspi. Defenders realize that he's not likely to shoot the three anymore. So now, defenders are easily anticipating his dribble drive and forcing him to take much more difficult shots.
Unfortunately, it looks like his 3pt shot is no longer consistent (Tyreke is having a better year from downtown!), so he can't punish defenders for respecting the dribble drive.
One trick ponies are much easier to shut down once you figure them out. It's players who bring multiple facets to the game that make defender's lives difficult. He beats the defender with whatever the defender is willing to give him.
I have nothing personal against Casspi. This is just what I haven been seeing while watching Casspi play recently. I really won't be crushed if he is back in Sac next year or not. One thing I hope if he's back next year, is that he is put in a third SF role where he doesn't see the floor except for injuries.
I know you're a huge, huge Casspi fan, so this analysis might rub you the wrong way. However, I'm just calling it as I see it...
People forget he could also be wildly erratic. I can't have been the only one who immediately flashed back on JWill when that poor woman sitting close to the court was hit in the face by a wild ball.
TheJewishKing
G-League
Stats might be lying a little bit here, Casspi field goals percentages might be lower in his stint under coach Karl than under coach Corbin but he is basically score the same amount of points, and one thing you can say about Casspi when playing under George Karl is that Casspi was able to remain consistant, he scores around 7-8 points in any given game under coach Karl, which is not bad...
Yes his field goals have decreased since the beginning of the season but it hasn't changed the fact that he is still the best bench player the Kings have, I'm aware of the fact that the Kings bench is one of the worst in the league, but considering the fact that Casspi is the best Kings player to come off the bench this season does grants him the privilege to be part of the Kings bench in the next season.
Casspi three-point shot percentages have obviously roughly decreased but Casspi was able to develop another aspect of his game which he was able to successfully execute for most of the season and the aspect is penetrating to the basket for the two points and a possibility for the and-one, I still believe that Casspi slashing to the hoop is a good decision even though his percentages have dropped, it's natural in this period of the season that the percentages won't be as decent as they were before, but I also believe Casspi's three-point percentages have slightly increased under coach Karl, so he might be getting his rhythm back on track.
And let's not forget that Casspi's FGs percentages are 46.8% which are more than a decent percentages for a small-forward.
Look I might be a huge Casspi fan, which I am and I am not ashamed to confess I am, but yet I can still value his effort he invested this season to try and make the Kings better and for some stages of the season he was able to do so while cooperating with the right coaching staff, as for now I think it's pretty late to try and change something since the season is almost over, but next season which I believe Casspi will still be a part of the Sacramento Kings I reckon that Casspi will be able to contribute for the Kings same as he was able to do in this season.
The part where you lost me is where you said his 3pt shot is no longer consistent. This year he's shooting 26% from three but he's only taken 38 of them all season. That's a frighteningly small sample size when stretched out over 49 games. For his career he's shooting 35% from three and that includes 908 total attempts. Certainly it is a bit concerning that he never found his 3pt stroke this season, but I'm not ready to say after 38 shots that he's no longer a threat from three. I am concerned that he hasn't come close to the 37% he shot in his first two seasons, primarily as a spot-up shooter. I think with a decent number of attempts though (say 150 over a season) he'd probably come close to normalizing at his career shooting rate of 35%. That's not great, but it's acceptable for a backup forward.
I tend to agree with your conclusion though that we don't need Casspi back next season and if we do re-sign him, it should be as a deeper bench option not a regular rotation player. He's a good team guy and he's versatile enough to fill several roles for us as a jack of all trades insurance option in the event of a serious injury to a regular starter. After you get past the 5 starters and a backup guard and a backup C though, there's really only minutes for 2 other players in the regular rotation and one of them needs to be a scorer. I like Omri, he was great for us early in the year back when we actually played like a team and I love that he wanted to play for Sacramento. But he didn't really do enough over the full season to prove he's a key piece that we can't afford to lose. As one of the last 3 or 4 guys on the bench? Sure.
I think people tend to forget that while most people were running away from the Kings as fast as they could, Omri WANTED to come back here. He may never be a starter or a star but he's a valuable bench player. If you look at the years of success of the Spurs, part of the reason they continue on year after year is they have those role players who know their roles, play them to the best of their ability, and don't quibble about doing it.
Agreed! I would like to have Omri back. I don't know that there are guaranteed minutes for him, but I like having him as part of the team.
twslam07
All-Star
Are we really looking at total points as your barometer for success? Your role players are supposed to be some of your most efficient players. You know why? Because defenses pay more attention to stars which often times frees up role players for easy, open looks. I could care less how many points he scores if he doesn't do it efficiently.
He could average 60 points per game and go 30/80 from the field each game. Wow, 60 points?! Yeah, but he shot 37% and his team ended up losing. Yeah, but 60 points is awesome!
Come on now. I thought the simple stuff like looking at just total points was behind everyone. You should be supplementing points with other data; otherwise, you're taking everything out of context.
What makes you say that? His field goals have stayed the same, if not increased since the beginning of the season:
FGs by Month
Oct - 2.0
Nov - 3.0
Dec - 2.3
Jan - 2.1
Feb - 2.3
Mar - 2.6
Again, we have one of the worst benches in the league. I'm not sure how you think this is a compliment. I would argue that Casspi has been the best bench player we have had this year, but recently, Miller has been our best bench player. I would even say Williams has been outplaying Casspi lately. He's been on fire shooting the ball. I could even argue with Thompson being moved to the bench, that he will become a more valuable bench player than Casspi.
If I had to choose two players to be on my bench out of Miller, Casspi, Williams, and Thompson. I'm choosing Miller and Thompson easily.
This sentence is absolutely full of it. Casspi isn't entitled to anything. He is an active member on our incredibly weak bench. There's no way I'm going to feel in debt to Casspi and offer him a contract because he was the best of the worst last year on our bench. If we find a better player, replace him. One trick ponies are a dime a dozen.
Why limit the team's ability to get better by saying we owe it to Casspi to sign him next year?
Yep, and I mentioned that in my post. However, the problem remains that there's only one thing he does adequate and is his dribble drive. If he were to maintain his shot and add a dribble drive to his repertoire, then he instantly becomes more valuable and more difficult to defend.
What I saw and what the stats backup is that defenders began to rewrite the scouting report on Casspi. Once the league figured him out, they have completely shut down his dribble drive, and since his shot has left him, he can't punish defenders for adjusting to his dribble drive. I don't know if you have every played a sport that has required any kind of man to man defense (basketball, soccer, football, etc.), but I will tell you that defense becomes incredibly easier when you make your opponent predictable. The only problem with Casspi right now is that defenders don't have to make him predictable. He does that all by himself.
I agree with you. He's been inefficient from three this year so it makes sense for him to try and take a better quality shot closer to the basket. Unfortunately, Casspi often times doesn't recognize when the shot isn't there. It's one thing if he drives into the lane notices he has nothing going for him and finds another man. However, Casspi will more than not take the shot anyway with a defender draped over him.
Earlier in the year, defenders were misinformed how to guard him which allowed him to get open in the lane and take very high percentage, good shots, but now, those good looks don't come as often for Casspi and he'll tend to force a shot up.
It's natural? Why? Any evidence to support this opinion? You're stating it like it's a known fact.
This is actually false. His percentages have been going back down under Karl. His best percentage was under Corbin, but that was only 8 3pt shots. In fact, Casspi hasn't taken that many 3pt shots this year at all (38 shots total). Some might try to chock up his decreased 3pt% to low sample sizes, but anyone who watches Casspi enough has another piece to add to this puzzle. There are plenty of times when Casspi passes up wide open threes. You can tell he's scared to shoot the ball. If he had confidence in the shooter he is, wouldn't he put up a shot when nobody is around him? Now obviously there are times he does shoot threes (I mean he has taken 38), but it seems like he almost knows that it's a bad shot for him to take now which causes him to hesitate before taking it.
3PT% by Coach
Malone - 14% (2 of 14)
Corbin - 37% (3 of 8)
Karl - 31% (5 of 16)
I agree. That is a good percentage for a season, and that's why I mentioned when looking at the entire year, Casspi has been our best bench player.
It's only until recently that we're seeing Casspi hit the wall. Again, players seem to be figuring him out. Don't be short sided and look at the overall for the season, but look at it with more granularity. You'll be surprised what you find sometimes.
And you shouldn't be ashamed. He's a very likeable guy who plays hard each game. He's just a limited basketball player with weaknesses. It doesn't mean he doesn't belong in the NBA, but it's not like we should write him on our roster in permanent ink. He is an easily replaceable player for this team, but I'm fine with bringing him back next year. I just hope we have a better backup SF (among strengthening our bench at other positions too) who plays in front of him, so we can become a more competitive team next year.
twslam07
All-Star
You're right. He hasn't taken many threes this year (only 38 total). You mentioned the 26% 3PT% being concerning. Well, I would also say the fact that he has only taken 38 threes is concerning as well.
If you watch Casspi play, he does hesitate on open threes quite a bit. It's as if his confidence in his shot has completely flown out the window. If he was a good three point shooter, I would think he would have confidence in shooting them when he's wide open. He's not a rookie like Stauskas who is still trying to process that he is in the NBA. This is a 6 year vet we're talking about. If you're not confident taking open threes by then, I don't think we can give you the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to "small sample size."
twslam07
All-Star
That's good and all that he wanted to come here, but I'm of the mindset that I don't like to settle. If an unattractive man or woman comes up to you and is interested in you, do you settle and marry him and her? No. You politely drop hints that you're not interested and move on. We're still waiting for 'the one.' Now it might be awhile until you find 'the one' so you continue to go out and date and find temporary solutions. Casspi in this case would be a temporary solution to me.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion. But this isn't about your love life. This is about having role players who, as I pointed out above, are willing to accept their role and show up every night. I think Omri does that. If you don't, then we'll agree to disagree.
Casspi is too inconsistent. He only took limited amount of 3pters because he wasn't comfortable with them...he hesitated a ton when he was wide open at the 3pt line. Saying Casspi was the best player coming off the bench isn't much of a compliment once you see our bench...
I want Casspi back, but Casspi is not a need for this team. He makes as many boneheaded plays as he does great plays.
I want Casspi back, but Casspi is not a need for this team. He makes as many boneheaded plays as he does great plays.
twslam07
All-Star
Obviously, it's not about my love life. It was an analogy to explain it in a different way.
All I was getting at is that the fact that a player wants to play for us shouldn't be the only criteria to bring a player aboard.
K
KingMilz
Guest
If Casspi wants to come back on a similar paying deal than yeah bring him back otherwise if he wants more $$ no thanks.
K
KingMilz
Guest
Whether it's a confidence thing or not is pure speculation though. I don't know why a player who used to hang his hat on three point shooting suddenly decided in his sixth season to eliminate that part of his game. Is there any precedent for a 37% three point shooter completely forgetting how to shoot in their sixth season? That seems like far too simplistic and implausible of an explanation to me.
Did you also notice that his free throw shooting went from a career average around .680 all the way up to .746 this year? Free throw shooting trends tend to follow three point shooting trends and yet these are moving dramatically in opposite directions. He took 130 free throws in only 900 minutes which is nearly twice his career free throw rate. Did he lose confidence in his shot this season or did somebody with the team encourage him to put the ball on the floor and get to the line? Whatever the reason, it's probably not irreversible. Why? Because 870 shots say he's a pretty good shooter and 38 shots say he's not. I think I'm going to go with the direction 96% of the evidence is pointing.
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twslam07
All-Star
Personally, I would rather judge where he is at this current moment as that has the greatest impact on our team.
That's all fine and dandy that he was a good 3pt shooter in the past, but this year, when he has been able to muster enough courage to actually shoot his wide open 3, he's only made 27% of them. I think it's possible that he could return to his career average as it might just be a confidence/mental issue that he needs to work through, but this season he can not be relied upon, to knock down an open three consistently (and this is what the original argument was). Whether that be taking the shot or him passing the shot up completely.
twslam07
All-Star
Agree, I'm all for bringing him back on a vet minimum deal.
Right... but I still don't think you're realizing just how small this sample size is. Peja Stojakovic made 11 of his first 38 three point shots in the NBA. He went on to make 1,749 out of 4,354 shots (or 40%) for the rest of his career. You could probably find a streak where any great shooter made only 10 out of 38 in a row. Volume shooters like Kobe have probably had a few 2 for 38 or 3 for 38 stretches mixed in too. Sure those streaks may have occurred over a dozen games instead of 49 games, but it's still a statistical anomaly. I think you're giving those shooting numbers way too much weight. Especially when his overall FG%, FT%, and TS% are all career highs this season (and involve significant samples of 263, 130, and 393 attempts respectively). If you look at his per36 numbers for his career, he's been remarkably consistent all 6 years. He's a 14, 6, and 2 guy who shoots 35% from three. Not good enough to be a starter on a good team, but a valuable role-player on most.
twslam07
All-Star
Peja also went on to only shoot 32% his first year in the league which I would not consider a reliable 3pt shooter...
No, I'm not giving those numbers too much weight. He has shot poorly this season from three. Yes, it is a small sample size, and he could just be struggling right now, but the fact that he hesitates shooting open threes is what alarms me.
As a 37% career 3pt shooter, you think he would be confident in taking that shot and thinking it's a good shot. 37% career shooters don't/shouldn't just completely shut down shooting threes after not making an efficient amount of threes through a small sample size. There's something else going on. Whether it has something to do with his form or if its something mental.
I'm not just looking at the numbers. I'm factoring in how he is behaving when an open 3pt shot presents itself to him.
Again, can you say with confidence that you can rely on Casspi to hit an open 3pt shot at this point in his career? Whether it's his percentage this year (which is small sample size) or the fact that he passes up open threes, I don't think you can say we can consistently rely on him to hit threes this year. If there's a few seconds left in the game, and we are down 3, would we even consider putting Casspi into the game? I sure wouldn't...
P
PoundForPound
Guest
You're probably the biggest Omri Casspi supporter here, TheJewishKing, so I wouldn't you to agree with me. I respect your opinion, but I disagree. Omri is valuable for 10-15 minutes off of the bench providing energy and hustle. He's not a consistent three-point threat and I've been mortified by his selfish play as of late. He's not an integral part of the Kings core or future for that matter. Trade asset? Yes.
TheJewishKing
G-League
You are definitely wrong here, why should Casspi be afraid to take an open shot, Casspi is wise enough to understand that it might be better for him to pass the open shot and try to go right to the hoop for the two points and an opportunity for an and one, look, Casspi is aware of his weaknesses (this year obviously the three-point shot) so he would much rather to pass this shot even if he has open looks, I am really sorry to inform it to you but Casspi was never a "pure shooter" therefore when he passes an open shot it's really not a big deal since you can't really be sure that he will make that open shot, I agree that many defenders in the league learned how to shut down Casspi, he had great success in the beginning of the season in slashing right to the basket for the easy points but since Casspi is not very athletic or agile like many of the players in the league it's hard for him to compete with the other players and finish his plays, Casspi will probably need to take it under consideration in the off-season where he will probably work about his rhythm from downtown because Casspi can definitely be a threat from outside but also a threat when he goes into the basket.
No doubt Casspi is a limited player, I recognize it and I believe Casspi is aware of it as well, but when Casspi will get his rhythm from the three-point line back and also assuming he will still preserve the ability of penetrating to the hoop for two points he could be a really big threat for the defense and especially when coming off the bench helping the second unit keeping the momentum when needed, let's be honest here, what are the odds that the Kings will be able to significantly strengthen their bench? not so high, Casspi can be a legitimate bench player in every NBA team, and I certainly talking about a player who can play significant amount of minutes per night, Casspi is also a very great locker room guy and very good for the team chemistry, I reckon Casspi as a bench player has more pros than cons, and he can definitely be a crucial part of the Kings in the next season.
Some very selective sample size, but under Malone and Karl, when Omri looked interested in playing, he's hit above .800 of his FTs. With him hovering about .350 from 3 for years, it seems, if he really made a concerted effort for a few months, he might get his set shot on track. Problem is every summer his playing for NT, and this year will probably not be an exception as there's Eurobasket in September. Omri will be firing on all cylinders right from the start of the season, but I wouldn't bet on his shot falling consistently next season either.
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