CelticsFan
Bench
Sorry to disagree but yes it's true it's how the NBA restricted free agency works. Teams are allowed to match the contract offers from other teams.
Current Team Discussion and Possible Trades
- Thread starter macadocious
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I know how restricted free agency works. But that's still contingent upon the player actually signing an offer sheet; Restricted Free Agents aren't compelled to do that.
Sure, it's within the team's control to match an offer sheet, but what if the player doesn't sign one? What if they do what Monroe did, and take the Qualifying Offer, to become an Unrestricted Free Agent the following year? That's why I said that it's contingent on a set of circumstances that are not actually within the team's control.
If we trade for Smart, we're only "guaranteed" to have Smart for two years longer than we would have had Gay; I'm not convinced that Smart will have validated such a hypothetical trade within that span of time.
CelticsFan
Bench
I'm just guessing but I would say less then 3% of RFA do this.
Telemachus
Starter
You are making the mistake of thinking that Jalen Brown's value is the same as the 3rd pick in the draft. The pick has more value because the team has the choice of the player they want. The Kings wouldn't have taken Brown. They would have taken Dunn.
CelticsFan
Bench
I agree you always want to take your guy rather then another team draftin them.
With that being said what's Big Georges value? Most experts had him as a second round pick. Would you value him as a mid first round pick or a mid second
LPKingsFan
All-Star
That doesn't change the calculus for the Celtics, though.
If the Celtics wouldn't trade #3 for Rudy Gay, and the Celtics drafted Brown at #3, then the Celtics won't trade Brown for Gay.
Or, if #3 > Gay, and Brown = #3, then Brown > Gay, no? For the Celtics, at least.
Well, Qualifying Offers are generally only extended to first-round picks, so if one in 30 signs one, that'd be mathematically more than three percent.
whozit
Starter
Probably the same thing your doing with Brown. Hope that your front office had it right. Time will tell.
CelticsFan
Bench
Can you help me understand better? Excluding busts and Monroe can you name other RFA's who have done this? Did anyone do this this offseason or last?
Telemachus
Starter
His value is based on what other teams think he is worth, not where he was drafted. That could change drastically over the next couple of years, based on how he develops.
What I really want to know is what the asking price was for the Kings to move up to #3 or #4 in the draft to take Dunn.
Vlade stated pretty matter of factly that he felt that it was too high so clearly he had been told by the Celtics and/or Suns what it would take to get their pick.
Vlade stated pretty matter of factly that he felt that it was too high so clearly he had been told by the Celtics and/or Suns what it would take to get their pick.
CelticsFan
Bench
Agree 100%. You don't just trade a guy you value so high that you picked 4 weeks ago for pennies on the dollar
CelticsFan
Bench
Do you think if Celtics asked for Gay that would have been too much for the 3rd pick?
Telemachus
Starter
That isn't the point from where I'm standing. My point is that the Kings wouldn't that trade. It doesn't make them better as a team and could easily end up making them worse for a couple years.
We aren't going to be competitive this season in terms of playoffs. This year fans should see better effort, minimal drama, if any. Cousins will stay if he believes that there is a plan. Getting agreement of what that is on this forum is touch and go, so hopefully there is one and it has already been put into action?
I don't think the Celtics have an interest in Rudy Gay. But if they did I think Gay and the #8 would've been a reasonable deal.
What's interesting from the Celtics side of things is that they could have well gotten Jaylen Brown at #8 in that scenario.
PHI - Simmons
LAL - Ingram
SAC - Dunn
PHX - Bender
MIN - Murray
NOP - Hield
DEN - Chriss
BOS - Brown
Maybe it doesn't shake out exactly that way but with the Wolves having Wiggins, the Pelicans desperately needing shooting, and Denver having Chandler, Galinari etc I don't know that any of them would've taken Brown.
This draft was interesting in that after the first two I wouldn't have been surprised to see any of the next six guys taken in pretty much any order.
twslam07
All-Star
The only thing out of our control is if he accepts the qualifying offer which is highly unlikely considering the cap situation right now.
You like to play semantics. I know. It's your 'thing,' but it doesn't change the fact that (statistically speaking) if we want to keep him, we can keep him for 6-7 years.
whozit
Starter
I suspect, if that was the price, that the Kings would be all over it.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Yes! If that's all the Kings were getting in return. Brown doesn't equal Gay. In three years maybe he will. No way to know. In three years he may equal Derrick Williams.
CelticsFan
Bench
So since Simmions and Ingram aren't as good as Gay today those guys would not be a reasonable return for Gay? If this is your logic WCS is only worth a Jason Thompson type player? I disagree with you
twslam07
All-Star
That's not how trades work. It's not always about who is the better player today. It's about value, youth, contract, etc. as well.
Well, technically Eric Bledsoe did, two years ago. And then, Phoenix blinked, and signed him to the 5-year deal. Mo Harkless is expected to do it with Portland this year; no idea whether you consider him a bust or not.
According to this cite, twenty players have actually signed the Qualifying Offer, since it was added to the CBA in 1995. If every eligible player since 1995 had been issued a Qualifying Offer, that would be some mathematical fraction under three percent. However, since we know that not every eligible player is issued a Qualifying Offer (as this cite indicates that only 39 percent of the players who were eligible for a Qualifying Offer actually got one), then that suggests that the percentage of players who were issued a Qualifying Offer and actually took it is, indeed, higher than three percent. I would posit that it might be as high as five.
And anyway, the original thesis is not about how likely it is to happen, but whether the team is in control of it happening. And the team is not in control.
You are using the word "fact" incorrectly. That is not a fact. If we traded Gay for Smart we would only be guaranteed to keep Smart for two years longer than we could have kept Gay. "Statistically speaking," we could keep Gay for 6-7 years, too.
Jkbiker
Starter
If Boston thinks Crowder is better than Gay, why not give Crowder to the clips direct? Because Gay has value to Clips to score points. I agree with you that Jaylen should not be part of this trade( was never part of my proposal) but we need players to produce this year not future potential.
Orig rumor was Crowder for Gay to Clips. Gays value is more as a trade chip to Get Blake. Crowder is a real asset and any PG from Boston (who has too many) is ok.
And as to my comments on Jaylen and Rozier , I dont care about SL stats, maybe they will be great maybe not. But as you say when I take everything into account, I agree with you
"Now would I make the trade? Possibly not because both might not help us win this year and we really need to be competitive to persuade Cousins to stay (and Cousins is definitely a more important asset than Brown & Rozier)."
Sincerely
Your Freindly Lunitic Biker
twslam07
All-Star
Keep trying. I applaud the effort.
Statistically speaking, keeping Smart for 6-7 years is far more likely to happen than keeping Gay for 6-7 years. You're flat out wrong if you disagree with that statement.
Besides, I think you're missing the fact that Gay would be 36-37 towards the end. There's also the possibility that he's retired before then. Only tips the scale further in Smart's direction...
I still haven't gotten anything wrong, though? I didn't say anything about likelihood. I spoke to possibility, not probability.
Are the Celtics (or the Kings, if we trade for him) in control over whether or not Marcus Smart signs the Qualifying Offer? Yes or no?
Are the Celtics (or the Kings, if we trade for him) in control over whether or not Marcus Smart signs the Qualifying Offer? Yes or no?
whozit
Starter
Since CelticsFan responded already and didn't refute your interpretation of his post I guess I misinterpreted it. I took his post as Gay for the 3rd pick not necessarily for Brown letting the Kings chose whomever they wanted. To me, the third pick before the pick was made was worth Gay, after the fact then ?
My guess is that the asking price for the third pick wasn't Rudy Gay and #8 or I think that deal would've been done and Kris Dunn would be a King.
If that was the deal I would've jumped on it. But Gay for Jaylen Brown? I don't know that I'd be interested. Partly because (even as a Cal alum) I'm not high on Brown but maybe more importantly because his game (at least right now) doesn't mesh with Cousins' at all.
Telemachus
Starter
I don't put value on a player based on where they were picked. Jaylen Brown IMO has a much bigger chance of being a bust than either Ingram or Simmons. Personally, I would consider Dunn, Hield and Murray to be of higher value than Brown. Like I said before, the 3rd pick had more value before the pick was made.
twslam07
All-Star
No, and I've said that already. But you're focusing on something that has a very low likelihood of happening which makes your point...well...pointless.
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