Boston perspective on Rondo trade rumors
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MassachusettsKingsFan
All-Star
Honestly, I don't think the price is that high.
IT is an obvious trade chip here, and Rondo is a direct replacement. Not worried about giving up that one. The pick, if we land another pick, won't be top 3 in all likelyhood. If that pick is in the 8-12 range I'm not all that concerned. It could be a good player, it might not be. Worth the risk I believe. And McLemore hasn't shown much of anything here. Good potential, but all the Kings really need out of their 2 when Rondo gets here is defense and shooting - If McLemore is that guy (and I have my doubts that he will ever be able to defend) then he would have underachieved anyway (scouts called him the next Ray Allen) ...
So go get Rondo, Sigh a defender type like Sefolosha or PJ Tucker (prefer tucker for the added shooting) .. try and fill in that defender gap (take a flier on Okafor?) and see what this team can do next season. Some good role playing free agents are going to be available this offseason.
The hardest piece is going to be that defender next to Cousins.
Chupacabra
Starter
I'd rather get Bradley and then go draft a shot blocker. Stop the dribble and protect them rim.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Here are some numbers to cogitate upon:
81
68
53
38
8
Note the fairly steady decline until the last year when it drops off a cliff? Those are Rondo's games played numbers for the last five years. If Vivek believes that the propensity for injury is an important factor in player personnel decisions, I would think those numbers would at least raise a red flag.
81
68
53
38
8
Note the fairly steady decline until the last year when it drops off a cliff? Those are Rondo's games played numbers for the last five years. If Vivek believes that the propensity for injury is an important factor in player personnel decisions, I would think those numbers would at least raise a red flag.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Not really fair to include the 53 in there as an example of anything because that was a lockout shortened year.
That would work but Chicago has to play ball.
Entity
Hall of Famer
Yes of course. Here is what the should look at. No chance of getting the 2014 pick. In 2015 best chance is #11. Now by taking the deal they get unconditional pick in 2016. Or if they stand pat they risk getting only 2nd rounder in 2017.
If they stand pat and we get better like I said #11 is best they can get in either 15 or 16. I think they would go for it with the chance for top 10 in 2016. Because that would be the draft after the year where we stand to lose Gay and possibly rondo if we get him.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Fair enough. Let's do it by percentage of total games played:
99%
83%
80%
46%
22% (approx of total games this year)
This is a very smart idea. Obviously PDA has something in mind, because he recently said it was not impossible to trade the 2014 pick, it was just difficult. But if you could get Chicago to play ball (and I think you could) you could make the trade a three-way deal- IT, Ben, and our 2014 to Boston, Rondo to Sac, and our 2016 to Chicago. If Chicago needs extra incentive, you could always toss in a second round pick this year (probably mid 30s) or next year.
CelticsFan
Bench
Hearing Rondo is probably sitting out tonight to let him rest. #tanking
Gary
All-Star
That's the only thing that scares me about Rondo, BUT that 46% and this year 22% are the same injury so basically he's had that one injury, otherwise he has played in about 80-90% of the games.
Just for comparison Cousins this year has played in about 85% of the games so far. I think it's worth the chance to get a guy here with championship experience.
Padrino
All-Star
i'd think that chicago would be very tentative about dealing with sacramento regarding the pick the bulls are owed. the kings' roster remains a mess, and while things are certainly looking up on the talent front, the result could cut either way in the next couple of seasons, really. sacramento could make smart trade deadline moves, smart draft day decisions, and smart offseason transactions this year, and they could be headed in the direction of the playoff conversation. or they could fail to properly build around demarcus cousins and rudy gay, and gay could opt out this summer or bolt in '15, and cousins could eventually demand a trade as the whole thing collapses...
i'm optimistic that this team's fortunes are going to turn around, but from another team's perspective, particularly an eastern conference team's perspective? i'd think that the bulls would view the kings as a bit of a wild card, and would elect to take a stab at the kings improving enough to give chicago solid draft position in 2015 (when the pick they're owed is only top-10 protected) rather than trade for an unprotected 2016 kings' draft pick with the hope that the kings are still bottom-feeders in '16 (when the original pick they're owed would still have been only top-10 protected, anyway). i suppose it would depend on chicago's desire to be certain of when that draft pick would be conferred to them. if they value the stability of that knowledge, maybe the kings could swing a deal by throwing in some sweetener. otherwise, i think it's hard to imagine chicago playing ball, but perhaps i'm underestimating PDA's creativity...
i'm optimistic that this team's fortunes are going to turn around, but from another team's perspective, particularly an eastern conference team's perspective? i'd think that the bulls would view the kings as a bit of a wild card, and would elect to take a stab at the kings improving enough to give chicago solid draft position in 2015 (when the pick they're owed is only top-10 protected) rather than trade for an unprotected 2016 kings' draft pick with the hope that the kings are still bottom-feeders in '16 (when the original pick they're owed would still have been only top-10 protected, anyway). i suppose it would depend on chicago's desire to be certain of when that draft pick would be conferred to them. if they value the stability of that knowledge, maybe the kings could swing a deal by throwing in some sweetener. otherwise, i think it's hard to imagine chicago playing ball, but perhaps i'm underestimating PDA's creativity...
Entity
Hall of Famer
Well they 2014 is out. Pick will be top 10 this year. 2015 who knows and 2017 it turns into 2nd rounder.
Right now for Chicago best case #11 2015. Worst case 2nd rounder 2017.
With my proposed deal best case #1 2016 worst case #30 2016.
My proposition gives a better best case and a better worst case. Because they will not get 2014 pick either way
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I agree with Reynolds: those knee injuries to guards can have a lot more effect on their games than the bigs. Quickness is more important to a guard's game than strength.
twslam07
All-Star
This is a very weak argument. Rondo has been a very durable player throughout his career.
06-07: 78/82 games = 95%
07-08: 77/82 games = 94%
08-09: 80/82 games = 98%
09-10: 81/82 games = 99%
10-11: 68/82 games = 83%
11-12: 53/66 games = 80%
12-13: The year he tore his ACL
Other than his one big injury last year, he has played in at least 80% of his team's games. And if you roll-up those first 6 seasons he plays in 92% of the games per season.
Feel free to speculate on if Rondo can come back healthy from his ACL tear, but it's a fool's argument to insinuate he has been an injury plagued player over the course of his career.
EDIT: Another thing to keep in mind is the amount of games he has played in the playoffs.
07-08: 26/26 games = 100%
08-09: 14/14 games = 100%
09-10: 24/24 games = 100%
10-11: 9/9 games = 100%
11-12: 19/20 games = 95%
For a grand total of 92/93 games = 99%
He's only missed one playoff game in his career. That's pretty impressive considering how grueling and demanding playoff games are compared to regular season games. If you want to count regular season and playoff games together, these are what his percentages are:
06-07: 78/82 games = 95%
07-08: 103/108 games = 95%
08-09: 94/96 games = 98%
09-10: 105/106 games = 99%
10-11: 77/91 games = 85%
11-12: 72/86 games = 84%
12-13: The year he tore his ACL
Now his worst season was at 84%. And his per season average went up to 93%. So I say again, feel free to speculate all you want about if he will be healthy coming back from his injury, but using his past seasons as a gauge of his injury risk is an argument that does not hold true.
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whozit
Starter
Kingster is a IT fan. Rondo coming here at the cost of IT probably is just a little distasteful. Just my opinion of motivation which could be wrong.
CelticsFan
Bench
Nice post! Boston or Sac could give up a 2nd round pick to the Bulls as a sweetener too if needed.
CelticsFan
Bench
FYI Rondo is not playing tonight they are being careful with his return. # tanking
Kingster
Hall of Famer
What have you done for me lately? Is it fair to weigh the latter half more than the former half? I think it is. Ask OKC and the Bulls if they think it's fair to weigh the more recent time period as opposed to the early years. Those fans are looking at two dead horses with max contracts. You can't say you weren't given a "warning."
More properly, the question is: Is Rondo fully recovered and free of future complications from the ACL or not? That's all. Games played per season doesn't need to even be brought up because it doesn't bear on the situation.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
That's a pretty grossly distorting things.
Here, I'll say the same thing, but in a way that actually makes sense: he tore his ACL. Hence the ENTIRE explanation for last year's % and this year's %. One injury. The same injury.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Why why I include Exum to my top 4 list of potential draftees then? Those dots don't connect.
Do you seriously want to give up major consideration (certainly Boston wouldn't be asking for minor) for a guard who had an ACL? Doesn't the Westbrook and Rose experience give you pause? Buying Rondo isn't exactly like buying Johnson & Johnson stock; more like a small cap with an iffy balance sheet. How much do you want to pay for that?
Kingster
Hall of Famer
ACL's do tend to distort year's of a player's performance. That's sort of the point.
twslam07
All-Star
I agree with you that his injury is a concern, but looking at his past seasons and drawing the conclusion that he's injury prone is foolish. If you want to say he's a risk because he tore his ACL, I'm fine with that, but again he doesn't have a history of being injured.
You had the right idea of saying it is a risk to trade for a player like Rondo, but your evidence to support your claim was terribly used.
twslam07
All-Star
No it's not the point. He got hurt mid year least year. ACLs usually take a year to recover from hence he missed the 2nd half of 2012-2013 and the 1st half of 2013-2014. He's not like other injury prone players who go from one injury to the next. He had one really bad injury. That's enough to worry about his performance going forward. There is no need to try to manipulate his games played the past few seasons to support your point that it is a risk to trade for him. We already know it is! But give the man credit for being a very durable player up until his ACL injury.
CelticsFan
Bench
Rondo has been a very durable player throughout his career. I agree it's fair to be concerned if he is fully healthy but if he was the price would be higher, the buy low window is now for Rondo. Rondo is not the first guy to come back from this injury. If Rondo was fully healthy Boston would probably get multiple first rounders or at the very least a very good young established talent and a pick. McLemore isn't exactly lighting up the league you could argue he has been a little bit of a disappointment so far, he's a top pick coming off the bench on a team with 17 wins.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I'll be honest with you. If I can get Lowry cheaper, then I'll take Lowry. Lowry is a two way player, which Rondo hasn't been in the past. The difference between the two isn't so great that I would give up the bank to get him. My suggestion was going to be that I'd do the deal if the Celtics were willing to give us the Hawks 1st round pick in exchange for ours. That way you get a high pick, and we still retain a lower pick. But according to you, their not willing to even let go of that pick. In which case, I doubt we make a deal.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
If there is a deal in place where the Bulls get our 2015 1st round pick because we end up retaining this years pick by finishing in the bottom 12, then we still can't trade this years pick, because you can't trade first round picks two years in a row. Which would be the case if the Bulls have our 2015 pick.
LPKingsFan
All-Star
Trade is really the only way the Kings could get Lowry, anyway, no? Unless PDA magically makes several contracts disappear, the Kings won't have cap space to sign Lowry or anyone of his ilk.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
IT, Ben, and a 1st? Seems like too much to me. Like one Ben McLemore or one 1st rounder too much. Rondo could be a difference maker but it's not a no brainer to trade IT and assets away for him IMO.
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