Bajaden's early 2022 Mock Draft: Don't bet money on it!

[hrdboild]

I agree that Suggs didn't light the league on fire and was perhaps the biggest flop in the top 10 right now so you're either doubling down on a mistake with the chance that you'll get two guys that were at the top of their classes who have played together and may have that certain chemistry that unlocks both to the best of their ability.

Or you go 0-2 with top 5 picks back to back

Orlando is in a tough spot. They're stuck in a loop of taking gambles on high upside players who struggle long enough to eat up their rookie contract and then start to turn it around just as they get expensive (or just after Orlando trades them for basically nothing). They've got Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Markelle Fultz as potential lead guards. If they draft Holmgren they'd have Wendell Carter, Mo Bamba, and Chet Holmgren at C. They've got the Wagners and Jonathan Isaac (if he ever gets healthy) as their forwards which means they don't really have a place for Banchero or Smith either without sitting somebody. Will they ever develop an identity or are they going to spend another decade developing talent for other teams? How can you have 6 top 10 picks on your team and win 22 games?

I think if I were Orlando's GM I'd try and trade the #1 pick and possibly one or two of those other top prospects who haven't quite panned out for somebody I could build around. Maybe Brooklyn wants out of the Ben Simmons game already. Maybe go after Ayton in a sign and trade (obviously they would have to wait until 30 days after their draft pick signs a contract so that's a little tricky). Sam Presti loves draft picks, maybe he'd trade Shai to lock up both of the top picks in this draft. I don't think bringing in another 19 year old and initiating them into that culture of losing is likely to change much for them.

 

[funkykingston]

Orlando is in a tough spot. They're stuck in a loop of taking gambles on high upside players who struggle long enough to eat up their rookie contract and then start to turn it around just as they get expensive (or just after Orlando trades them for basically nothing). They've got Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Markelle Fultz as potential lead guards. If they draft Holmgren they'd have Wendell Carter, Mo Bamba, and Chet Holmgren at C. They've got the Wagners and Jonathan Isaac (if he ever gets healthy) as their forwards which means they don't really have a place for Banchero or Smith either without sitting somebody. Will they ever develop an identity or are they going to spend another decade developing talent for other teams? How can you have 6 top 10 picks on your team and win 22 games?

I think if I were Orlando's GM I'd try and trade the #1 pick and possibly one or two of those other top prospects who haven't quite panned out for somebody I could build around. Maybe Brooklyn wants out of the Ben Simmons game already. Maybe go after Ayton in a sign and trade (obviously they would have to wait until 30 days after their draft pick signs a contract so that's a little tricky). Sam Presti loves draft picks, maybe he'd trade Shai to lock up both of the top picks in this draft. I don't think bringing in another 19 year old and initiating them into that culture of losing is likely to change much for them.

Markelle Fultz (1st overall by PHI)
Mo Wagner (25th overall by LAL)
Wendell Carter Jr (7th overall by CHI)
Jonathan Isaac (6th overall by ORL)
Mo Bamba (6th overall by ORL)
RJ Hampton (24th overall by MIL)
Cole Anthony (15th overall by ORL)
Chuma Okeke (16th overall by ORL)
Jalen Suggs (5th overall by ORL)
Franz Wagner (8th overall by ORL)

The Magic have 10 former 1st round picks from the last 5 drafts and seven of them were lottery picks. And if they keep their pick they are going to add a #1 overall pick to that list.

But other than Franz Wagner, I don't think any of them has shown without a doubt that they deserve a starting role, and a few haven't shown conclusively to be NBA caliber players. So IF Orlando stays at #1 I don't think they can afford to care how the player they pick fits with what they have. They are likely moving on from Bamba regardless, none of Suggs, Fultz, or Anthony should have a clearly defined role going into next season, and Isaac hasn't shown he can stay healthy, though he's shown a lot of flashes when he was.

They've got a lot more questions than answers right now. And the only reason I'd say they shouldn't trade the pick is that they don't have a core to build around, so they need to finally hit on somebody. The counter argument is simply, "but do you trust them to get it right this time?"

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Markelle Fultz (1st overall by PHI)
Mo Wagner (25th overall by LAL)
Wendell Carter Jr (7th overall by CHI)
Jonathan Isaac (6th overall by ORL)
Mo Bamba (6th overall by ORL)
RJ Hampton (24th overall by MIL)
Cole Anthony (15th overall by ORL)
Chuma Okeke (16th overall by ORL)
Jalen Suggs (5th overall by ORL)
Franz Wagner (8th overall by ORL)

The Magic have 10 former 1st round picks from the last 5 drafts and seven of them were lottery picks. And if they keep their pick they are going to add a #1 overall pick to that list.

But other than Franz Wagner, I don't think any of them has shown without a doubt that they deserve a starting role, and a few haven't shown conclusively to be NBA caliber players. So IF Orlando stays at #1 I don't think they can afford to care how the player they pick fits with what they have. They are likely moving on from Bamba regardless, none of Suggs, Fultz, or Anthony should have a clearly defined role going into next season, and Isaac hasn't shown he can stay healthy, though he's shown a lot of flashes when he was.

They've got a lot more questions than answers right now. And the only reason I'd say they shouldn't trade the pick is that they don't have a core to build around, so they need to finally hit on somebody. The counter argument is simply, "but do you trust them to get it right this time?"

Jeeez, when you look at it like that, it feels like they can't not pick Jabari just because he seems to have the lowest floor. And yet that could also feed into a narrative later when whichever one of the next 3-4 picks becomes a bigger star.

 

[funkykingston]

Jeeez, when you look at it like that, it feels like they can't not pick Jabari just because he seems to have the lowest floor. And yet that could also feed into a narrative later when whichever one of the next 3-4 picks becomes a bigger star.

Chet Holmgren fits what the FO is normally looking for as John Hammond likes long, defensive players with upside, but I do wonder if they feel like they they can't take the risk given where they currently are.

 

[hrdboild]

Markelle Fultz (1st overall by PHI)
Mo Wagner (25th overall by LAL)
Wendell Carter Jr (7th overall by CHI)
Jonathan Isaac (6th overall by ORL)
Mo Bamba (6th overall by ORL)
RJ Hampton (24th overall by MIL)
Cole Anthony (15th overall by ORL)
Chuma Okeke (16th overall by ORL)
Jalen Suggs (5th overall by ORL)
Franz Wagner (8th overall by ORL)

The Magic have 10 former 1st round picks from the last 5 drafts and seven of them were lottery picks. And if they keep their pick they are going to add a #1 overall pick to that list.

But other than Franz Wagner, I don't think any of them has shown without a doubt that they deserve a starting role, and a few haven't shown conclusively to be NBA caliber players. So IF Orlando stays at #1 I don't think they can afford to care how the player they pick fits with what they have. They are likely moving on from Bamba regardless, none of Suggs, Fultz, or Anthony should have a clearly defined role going into next season, and Isaac hasn't shown he can stay healthy, though he's shown a lot of flashes when he was.

They've got a lot more questions than answers right now. And the only reason I'd say they shouldn't trade the pick is that they don't have a core to build around, so they need to finally hit on somebody. The counter argument is simply, "but do you trust them to get it right this time?"

I think the only chance they have of salvaging this mess is packaging some of this "potential" for a proven player. If they really think someone in this draft is going to be the difference maker, by all means keep getting younger but this looks like a treadmill to oblivion to me. Maybe trading down and getting a proven player and a lower pick and targeting someone like Keegan Murray or Tari Eason could work out for them as well. But just taking someone at #1 and asking them to carry this AAU team for the next 4 years is probably going to kill that player's career, whoever it is. (See also: Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, possibly De'Aaron Fox)