Who Should We Sign? (2023 Off-Season)
- Thread starter twslam07
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I think you’d be surprised how much our offense would be impacted by replacing a good floor spacer with Okongwu (even if Huerter and Murray are still on the floor with him).
Okongwu averages 0.2 3PA per 36 min and only 1.5 FGA per 36 min from 10+ ft. As a comparison, Holmes in his career with SAC averages 0.2 3PA per 36 min and 2.7 FGA per 36 min from 10+ ft. How do you think adding someone who is less of a floor spacer than Richaun Holmes next to Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Sabonis would fair? With guys like Fox and Sabonis who are so effective at scoring in the paint, adding someone like Okongwu is just going to make their lives a lot more difficult. He’s just not a good fit on offense and we should hold out for someone who can complement this team both offensively and defensively.
Okongwu averages 0.2 3PA per 36 min and only 1.5 FGA per 36 min from 10+ ft. As a comparison, Holmes in his career with SAC averages 0.2 3PA per 36 min and 2.7 FGA per 36 min from 10+ ft. How do you think adding someone who is less of a floor spacer than Richaun Holmes next to Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Sabonis would fair? With guys like Fox and Sabonis who are so effective at scoring in the paint, adding someone like Okongwu is just going to make their lives a lot more difficult. He’s just not a good fit on offense and we should hold out for someone who can complement this team both offensively and defensively.
Why's that?
The Nets have Bridges, Finney-Smith, O'Neale, Simmons, & Harris who can all play the SF/PF position. I don't think it's unrealistic to think they'd be open to a S&T to avoid giving Johnson a big payday while picking up an asset in the process. Something like Holmes/Mitchell for Johnson or Holmes/1st for Johnson seems reasonable.
PG - Fox / Monk
SG - Huerter / Edwards
SF - Johnson / Barnes
PF - Murray / Lyles
C - Sabonis
2023 Picks - SAC 1st / IND 2nd / SAC 2nd
The Nets have Bridges, Finney-Smith, O'Neale, Simmons, & Harris who can all play the SF/PF position. I don't think it's unrealistic to think they'd be open to a S&T to avoid giving Johnson a big payday while picking up an asset in the process. Something like Holmes/Mitchell for Johnson or Holmes/1st for Johnson seems reasonable.
PG - Fox / Monk
SG - Huerter / Edwards
SF - Johnson / Barnes
PF - Murray / Lyles
C - Sabonis
2023 Picks - SAC 1st / IND 2nd / SAC 2nd
It might make more sense for the Kings to play the long game and do the following during the 2023 offseason...
PG - Fox / Mitchell / Ellis
SG - Huerter / Monk / Davis
SF - Murray / Edwards / Dozier
PF - Barnes / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Metu / Holmes / Queta
2023 Picks - SAC 1st / IND 2nd / SAC 2nd
Essentially we'd be running it back with the same team with the hopes that development from our young guys (Fox, Mitchell, Ellis, Huerter, Monk, Davis, Murray, Edwards, Queta), our draft picks (#24, #38, & #54), developing more chemistry, & having Brown's defensive schemes/rotations become 2nd nature lead to a similar season (top seed in the west).
During the 2024 offseason...
Another option is to maybe just go after a lower tiered FA (e.g., OG Anunoby, Klay Thompson, Royce O'Neale, Bol Bol, Jarred Vanderbilt, Desmond Bane, Devin Vassell, Saddiq Bey, Jaden McDaniels, Chuma Okeke, Aleksej Pokusevski, Patrick Williams, & Jalen Smith) allowing us to maybe keep all or a combo of Barnes, Monk, Mitchell, and/or #24.
The other option is to try and explore a trade for a big name piece. During the 2024 offseason, the Kings 2024 1st should have hopefully conveyed to ATL (it's only Top 14 protected in 2024) which would unlock the Kings ability to trade future 1st round picks giving us the following assets available to trade (assuming Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Sabonis aren't going anywhere):
I've said it before, but McNair doesn't get enough credit for the flexibility he has created. He has the ability to take us in many different ways and I'm sure with his contract extension in place, he's going to try and be patient until the right opportunity presents itself.
- Resign Harrison Barnes to a $60 mil/4 year contract
- Resign Trey Lyles to a $20 mil/2 year contract (non-guaranteed in 2nd year)
- Resign Terrence Davis to a $12 mil/2 year contract (non-guaranteed in 2nd year)
- Resign Chimezie Metu to a $4.5 mil/2 year contract (non-guaranteed in 2nd year)
- Draft BPA at #24, #38, & #54
PG - Fox / Mitchell / Ellis
SG - Huerter / Monk / Davis
SF - Murray / Edwards / Dozier
PF - Barnes / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Metu / Holmes / Queta
2023 Picks - SAC 1st / IND 2nd / SAC 2nd
Essentially we'd be running it back with the same team with the hopes that development from our young guys (Fox, Mitchell, Ellis, Huerter, Monk, Davis, Murray, Edwards, Queta), our draft picks (#24, #38, & #54), developing more chemistry, & having Brown's defensive schemes/rotations become 2nd nature lead to a similar season (top seed in the west).
During the 2024 offseason...
- Ellis, Monk, Davis, Edwards, Dozier, Lyles, Metu, Queta, #38, and #54 can all come off our books which would give us ~$14.5 mil in cap space.
- If we move Holmes, that goes up to ~$26.2 mil.
- If we move Barnes, that goes up to ~$39.4 mil.
- If we move Mitchell, that goes up to ~$44.6 mil.
- If we move #24, that goes up to ~$46.2 mil
Another option is to maybe just go after a lower tiered FA (e.g., OG Anunoby, Klay Thompson, Royce O'Neale, Bol Bol, Jarred Vanderbilt, Desmond Bane, Devin Vassell, Saddiq Bey, Jaden McDaniels, Chuma Okeke, Aleksej Pokusevski, Patrick Williams, & Jalen Smith) allowing us to maybe keep all or a combo of Barnes, Monk, Mitchell, and/or #24.
The other option is to try and explore a trade for a big name piece. During the 2024 offseason, the Kings 2024 1st should have hopefully conveyed to ATL (it's only Top 14 protected in 2024) which would unlock the Kings ability to trade future 1st round picks giving us the following assets available to trade (assuming Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Sabonis aren't going anywhere):
- Harrison Barnes
- Davion Mitchell
- 2023 SAC 1st (#24)
- 2025 SAC 1st
- 2027 SAC 1st
- 2029 SAC 1st
- 2031 SAC 1st
I've said it before, but McNair doesn't get enough credit for the flexibility he has created. He has the ability to take us in many different ways and I'm sure with his contract extension in place, he's going to try and be patient until the right opportunity presents itself.
I like the idea of running it back, but I still think you can improve on the Metu slot and TD slot on the cheap. Maybe you don't spend on Vezenkov, but I'd still be happy with resigning Trey, resigning Barnes, keeping Kessler Edwards option, bringing in the 23 FRP and targeting good cheaper vets like Josh Okogie and/or Mason Plumlee to shore up the bench depth at our weak-points.
Fox || Mitchell
Huerter || Monk
Keegan || Okogie
Barnes || Trey
Sabonis || Plumlee
as a playoff-type rotation and you have Kessler Edwards, the 23 FRP, Queta and Ellis as your back-end bench developmental guys. And hopefully, by the end of next season, we have a real clear picture of what Keegan and Davion are, if Edwards is a future rotation player and if Queta/Ellis can stick in the NBA
Fox || Mitchell
Huerter || Monk
Keegan || Okogie
Barnes || Trey
Sabonis || Plumlee
as a playoff-type rotation and you have Kessler Edwards, the 23 FRP, Queta and Ellis as your back-end bench developmental guys. And hopefully, by the end of next season, we have a real clear picture of what Keegan and Davion are, if Edwards is a future rotation player and if Queta/Ellis can stick in the NBA
If Okogie & Plumlee come on a 1+1 deal, I’d be fine with those targets.
But you said it…we have the ability to be patient for another season and see what we have in our young guys to get a better sense of their trajectory, development, and fit with our core allowing us to make a less risky/smarter long term decision on where to take this team next (not to mention it should be much easier/less costly to shed Holmes salary during the 2024 off-season considering he’d be an expiring contract helping us retain our assets).
For example…
But you said it…we have the ability to be patient for another season and see what we have in our young guys to get a better sense of their trajectory, development, and fit with our core allowing us to make a less risky/smarter long term decision on where to take this team next (not to mention it should be much easier/less costly to shed Holmes salary during the 2024 off-season considering he’d be an expiring contract helping us retain our assets).
For example…
- If Mitchell becomes a consistent bench scorer who can start hitting 3s at a 38% clip, perhaps it’s much easier for him to share the court with Fox and he allows us to let Monk walk (using that extra cap space elsewhere)
- If Murray takes a leap and starts to show more creation ability off the bounce and is putting up 18 PPG and 3 APG on good efficiency, perhaps we have found our 3rd star and it makes more sense to surround this core with complementary pieces vs. making a big move to find that 3rd star
- If Murray fills out and is grabbing 7+ RPG and 1+ BPG, perhaps Murray is the long term PF allowing us to open the search to a long term SF to fill out the core
- If Edwards takes a leap and becomes a legit 3&D SF who proves he is a starting caliber player in this league, perhaps it allows us to move Barnes or Lyles for a better long term fit
- If Queta proves himself an excellent backup C who is the intimidating rim protector we’d like as a backup C, perhaps we can use that cap space elsewhere
- If Ellis proves he can be a legitimate backup PG, perhaps it makes Mitchell & Monk expendable for an upgrade elsewhwre
- If our 2023 SAC 1st looks like a steal, perhaps he makes others expendable for upgrades elsewhere
I'm not saying he's going to take MLE type money but something that provides a little more wiggle room seems to be something within his character. Barnes has the type of game that will age pretty well I think. If healthy I think he's got many more good years left as a starter level player. We'll have to see if there are any teams out there able to meet a hefty price if that's what he's looking for. Taking a short term deal and trying to make his way back into the playing field next year or the year after might be better for him. It's a limited market this summer at this point.
Bojan got 4 years 73 mil at age 31 I believe. Bogi just got 4 years 68 at age 31. We are almost certainly looking at that range for Barnes considering he is durable and his game will like age well like The Kid pointed out. That’s a lot of money for a guy you are expecting to settle into your 5th best player role next season and beyond but that’s the going rate.
The other thing to consider is to double down on Fox Sabonis Keegan and Huerter and use the Barnes cash on some role players. Sign Thybulle, Naz Reid and bring over Sasha. Gives us a little more size and defense and then you still have your picks to add depth and take a swing or two. Call up Keon and give him TDs role. Start Kessler.
You are taking the risk that Keegan can take a big leap and that Kessler can grown but now all of a sudden you have 2 elite defenders (Davion/Thybulle) 2 above average defenders (Kessler/Naz) and then a second year player in Keegan who plans to use the offseason to get better defensively and Keon who has shown Davion type defense in flashes.
You are taking the risk that Keegan can take a big leap and that Kessler can grown but now all of a sudden you have 2 elite defenders (Davion/Thybulle) 2 above average defenders (Kessler/Naz) and then a second year player in Keegan who plans to use the offseason to get better defensively and Keon who has shown Davion type defense in flashes.
Well, Naz would be a good get but trading out Barnes and signing role guys is typically the move teams make that sees them have a rather quick decline unless they have a clear direct need or one of those leftover guys steps up big time. Right now, lose Barnes and what is historically considered playoff ball largely goes out the window. Barnes is one of the better contact getters on the team and replacing him with Huerter and Keegan who are basically system guys could be a big problem if it doesn't work considering you also filled up the potential wiggle room on your cap with role players. Keegan averages basically around 1 free throw a game and Huerter is about 2 per game. Nope, can't do it. Not yet and while I do think if Keegan gets more action at the rim or from the mid post he'll get to the line, there's no proof as of yet that this concern of his coming out of college is going to translate. We'll see how the playoffs shake out but I still think Monte is going to probably have to swing for anything of a 2nd/3rd star type so that Brown isn't so dependent on staggering Fox and Sabonis. Ideally those two play almost the whole game side by side without having to put in 44-48 mpg. The playoffs will reveal all of that for sure whether that means staying the course, or aggressively trying to improve the team now with another all star level talent.
Guess I need to look into Naz Reid a bit. He’s certainly gaining interest on this board as a possible off season target.
I like his age, and he fills a positional need.
Can I assume he’s an upgrade on Metu and Lyles,? Len will not return and Holmes who I would think should be doing what Reid successfully pulls off needs to be addressed.
I like his age, and he fills a positional need.
Can I assume he’s an upgrade on Metu and Lyles,? Len will not return and Holmes who I would think should be doing what Reid successfully pulls off needs to be addressed.
Naz might be one of those guys that if he finds the right team he starts putting up 20 a game. His per minute scoring numbers have been off the charts for awhile. He's such a strange player. In college he was a big, bulky Cuz/Zbo type of big. Now he's like a scoring tweener in the mold of a Carl Landry sort of player. He lost a ton of weight since college and isn't much outside of being a scorer. I think some team takes a chance on him as he's been considered one of the best value guys for a few seasons now. The Wolves I'm sure will look to bring him back but another team might offer him a starting spot. I would if I were a team like the Pistons or another young team looking for value.
yeh I love Barnes and think he is really valuable, we just have to be open to different things. The playoffs will tell us a lot. I think the big question is, will our defense be our downfall and if it is how do we improve? Sabonis and Fox are locked in to their roles. That only leaves 3 spots to “upgrade” and it’s uncertain if there are upgrades to be had for us. I think keeping the main offensive pieces in tact slabs filling out wilth tough defenders
Well... all you're talking about is offense. Granted that is the premise of your post but when we have the #1 offense (in NBA history?) and we're still nervous heading into the playoffs because our defense makes career bench players into one-night superstars you have to question whether an all-in on offense approach really has legs. This is a young core group and we have time to tinker with lineups and add/subtract role-players to find the right balance of keeping enough shooting on the floor without abandoning defense entirely.
The difference between a player like Richaun Holmes and Onyeka Okongwu is that Holmes' value comes primarily from his scoring efficiency and rebounding whereas Okongwu has elite defensive potential. He's only playing 23 minutes per game right now and he's in the top 10 in total blocks and 13th in blocks per game. He's doing that primarily as a weak-side defender erasing dribble penetration which is an aspect of the game where we're sorely lacking. Additionally, he would become the best offensive rebounder on the team immediately and hopefully cut into all the second-chance points the Kings have given up this season.
I'm not saying he's the piece to propel us to a championship, just that he's someone we should look at. I think he would shift the lineup strongly in the direction of a better balance between offense and defense which is the best way to build this team for future success. We'd still (theoretically) have Lyles or Vezenkov off the bench to help space the floor and he's got some potential to slide down to small-ball center when Sabonis is getting a rest.
The difference between a player like Richaun Holmes and Onyeka Okongwu is that Holmes' value comes primarily from his scoring efficiency and rebounding whereas Okongwu has elite defensive potential. He's only playing 23 minutes per game right now and he's in the top 10 in total blocks and 13th in blocks per game. He's doing that primarily as a weak-side defender erasing dribble penetration which is an aspect of the game where we're sorely lacking. Additionally, he would become the best offensive rebounder on the team immediately and hopefully cut into all the second-chance points the Kings have given up this season.
I'm not saying he's the piece to propel us to a championship, just that he's someone we should look at. I think he would shift the lineup strongly in the direction of a better balance between offense and defense which is the best way to build this team for future success. We'd still (theoretically) have Lyles or Vezenkov off the bench to help space the floor and he's got some potential to slide down to small-ball center when Sabonis is getting a rest.
Yeah, the playoffs show if this team is in need of talent or not and then that means everyone not named Fox or Sabonis should be on the table for the right deal. If you're on the lower tier of talent you can sign 1 million role guys and it likely won't matter. My personal opinion on the defensive side is that the system is moreso flawed than the players are incapable of defending. If it's a personnel reason why Brown isn't relying more on pressure and switch then yes, time to start looking for the right role players.
I've brought it up before but the fact that both the Warriors and Kings are slipping on that end at the same time could be that teams are better scouted for his defensive system or that both teams are indeed, missing personnel to run it. Probably a little bit of both. Notice how the Warriors couldn't wait to go get GP2 back. That said, the Warriors weren't all that great last year when they playoffs started ending up 6th and put up about a 110 rating. They were kind of in the middle on that end. This is why I think the Kings goal should be Nash era Suns level, 1 on offense, 15-18 on defense. When the Kings got up to around 20 or so this season on defense they looked legit. Like possible contender legit. Also, the Warriors do absolutely switch a lot more than the Kings do when they have to. They also have a NBA great defender in Draymond to rely on though.
Oh also, when it comes to subbing out talent with the number 1 offense for defense you have to question if you can afford to do that without suffering much on that end. This is the main reason I think potentially getting another star to go with Sabonis and Fox might be the best call. Sabonis has stretches of dominant play but dudes the PG and once he hits 20 points he usually shuts it down on that front. Fox can get you 25 a night but right now the Kings are leaning heavily on a crop of 3-4 system guys per night to make up the difference and most nights it's a merry go round as to who it will be. If the Kings formed a legit 3 star trio, then putting 2 defensive role players next to that is doable, we've seen championships won that way. The question is like with Barnes, who do you sub out for a defender and not lose out on offense with this current construction?
Oh also, when it comes to subbing out talent with the number 1 offense for defense you have to question if you can afford to do that without suffering much on that end. This is the main reason I think potentially getting another star to go with Sabonis and Fox might be the best call. Sabonis has stretches of dominant play but dudes the PG and once he hits 20 points he usually shuts it down on that front. Fox can get you 25 a night but right now the Kings are leaning heavily on a crop of 3-4 system guys per night to make up the difference and most nights it's a merry go round as to who it will be. If the Kings formed a legit 3 star trio, then putting 2 defensive role players next to that is doable, we've seen championships won that way. The question is like with Barnes, who do you sub out for a defender and not lose out on offense with this current construction?
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I think the point that is being missed is that we shouldn’t be targeting awful offensive fits just because they are a great defensive fit. Again, would we want to add someone who is worse at spacing the floor than Holmes next to Sabonis, right? Have we even played Sabonis with someone who can’t space the floor? I think we’re underestimating how much our offense would be impacted if you add someone who’s not a threat outside 10ft who occupies the same space as Fox/Sabonis offensively.
If we really want to elevate this team, we’ll need to find someone who can maintain our spacing while giving us an upgrade on defense. That’s easier said than done, but if this team really wants to become a contender, that’s the type of player they need to target.
If we really want to elevate this team, we’ll need to find someone who can maintain our spacing while giving us an upgrade on defense. That’s easier said than done, but if this team really wants to become a contender, that’s the type of player they need to target.
I appreciate your point. This offense is built around Sabonis in the middle with Fox as a threat to drive or pull-up off of hand-offs and the other three players on the floor spotted up outside the arc.
I suppose my counter-points here would be: (1) Okongwu is 22 years old and can develop a spot-up shot in time. He's improved all 3 years from the free throw line (he's up to a respectable 77% this season). He's already a threat as a backdoor cutter, a lob finisher, or punishing smallball teams in the post. (2) I think we need to find a way to get a shotblocker on the floor or we're going to continue to get eaten alive by dribble penetration. We know the lineup will include Fox, Murray, and Sabonis. Huerter appears to have nailed down that starting SG spot. How else are we going to keep a shotblocker on the floor if it's not at that PF spot next to Sabonis? Okongwu looks like the best/youngest/most obtainable option that exists right now to fill that role for us.
Really I'm just spit-balling here. I'm sure we can agree to disagree. We're unlikely to be able to get exactly what we want in free agency and we can't trade for an established talent without giving up a ton. So then the question becomes, do we compromise on offense or on defense? I would lean more in the direction of compromising the offense to boost the defense, just by personal preference, but I also think most would agree that this team doesn't really have much room for growth offensively. If we want to grow from playoff team to contender, doesn't it stand to reason we need to make that leap on defense? Surely we can afford to give up Barnes' 1.5 3pt baskets a game in exchange for having an actual defensive presence in the paint.
I suppose my counter-points here would be: (1) Okongwu is 22 years old and can develop a spot-up shot in time. He's improved all 3 years from the free throw line (he's up to a respectable 77% this season). He's already a threat as a backdoor cutter, a lob finisher, or punishing smallball teams in the post. (2) I think we need to find a way to get a shotblocker on the floor or we're going to continue to get eaten alive by dribble penetration. We know the lineup will include Fox, Murray, and Sabonis. Huerter appears to have nailed down that starting SG spot. How else are we going to keep a shotblocker on the floor if it's not at that PF spot next to Sabonis? Okongwu looks like the best/youngest/most obtainable option that exists right now to fill that role for us.
Really I'm just spit-balling here. I'm sure we can agree to disagree. We're unlikely to be able to get exactly what we want in free agency and we can't trade for an established talent without giving up a ton. So then the question becomes, do we compromise on offense or on defense? I would lean more in the direction of compromising the offense to boost the defense, just by personal preference, but I also think most would agree that this team doesn't really have much room for growth offensively. If we want to grow from playoff team to contender, doesn't it stand to reason we need to make that leap on defense? Surely we can afford to give up Barnes' 1.5 3pt baskets a game in exchange for having an actual defensive presence in the paint.
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Having a rim runner wouldn’t be a bad look for the offense as well. And I have not given up on Sabonis and Fox improving as 3pt shooters. Barnes is going to be tough to upgrade - but the defense has to get better for the Kings to make another leap.
But Jerami Grant is my favorite target right now that I think is gettable.
But Jerami Grant is my favorite target right now that I think is gettable.
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But it’s not just giving up Barnes 1.5 3pt shots a game. His presence and spacing allows his teammates to get better looks so the real question is can we afford to give up his shots AND decrease the FG% Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, etc.? This is a team sport and the fit/chemistry impacts everyone else.
Again, it would be a significant change to what we’ve observed offensively this year to have someone who’s not a threat outside 10ft share the court with Sabonis. Essentially all of Sabonis’ minutes have been next to Fox, Mitchell, Huerter, Monk, Davis, Murray, Barnes, and Lyles. All of these guys are threats outside 10ft. Adding someone like Okongwu could be a shock to our offense (and not a good shock) and make it much easier to game plan for (especially in the playoffs).
Below is a list of players (with their per 36 min stats to reference) that will be FAs either this offseason or next offseason who could be solid additions at SF/PF (I've also included the Kings SFs/PFs as a comparison):
I'd preferably want to go after who has PF size (vs. SF size like O'Neale, Hart, Bullock, Nesmith, Brooks, etc.) but this is generally the archetype we should be targeting.
Again, it would be a significant change to what we’ve observed offensively this year to have someone who’s not a threat outside 10ft share the court with Sabonis. Essentially all of Sabonis’ minutes have been next to Fox, Mitchell, Huerter, Monk, Davis, Murray, Barnes, and Lyles. All of these guys are threats outside 10ft. Adding someone like Okongwu could be a shock to our offense (and not a good shock) and make it much easier to game plan for (especially in the playoffs).
Below is a list of players (with their per 36 min stats to reference) that will be FAs either this offseason or next offseason who could be solid additions at SF/PF (I've also included the Kings SFs/PFs as a comparison):
I'd preferably want to go after who has PF size (vs. SF size like O'Neale, Hart, Bullock, Nesmith, Brooks, etc.) but this is generally the archetype we should be targeting.