The
contract situation in Atlanta is very intriguing. The guy I'm looking at is Onyeka Okongwu -- he's only got one year left on his rookie contract. They just extended Bogi another 4 years for $17 million per season. I would assume that retaining Dejounte Murray has to be a priority for them which would put them way into luxury tax territory before they even offer a dime to Okongwu. Either they unload a ton of salary for expirings this off-season or before the trade deadline next season (certainly possible if the team continues to under-perform) or there's no way they can match decent offers for
any of their restricted free agents. Saddiq Bey is also going to be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2024.
There's a few free agent possibilities for the SF/PF spot this summer which could help us but none that I'm comfortable paying market rates for. I'm still focused on 2024 which is going to be the best free agent crop in quite awhile. May ideal plan is to sign a short-term deal or re-sign Barnes on a front-loaded contract to try to retain as much space as we can for 2024. I would also be strongly against packaging Keegan Murray for anyone at this point -- especially knowing that we can max out a free agent in 2024 if we play our cards right and not give up any core pieces.
I don’t like the Okongwu target. He’s not a complementary piece to Fox & Sabonis considering his inability to stretch the floor.
I can get behind targeting a 2024 FA but it’d mean we’d have to shed Holmes contract, avoid signing our 2023 FAs like Lyles, Davis, etc. to 2+ year deals, and say goodbye to 1 or 2 of Barnes, Monk, Mitchell, & 2023 SAC1st.
For example, during the 2023 off-season, we could resign Barnes to a $60 mil/4 year deal and resign Lyles, Davis, & Metu to 1+1 deals giving us a 2023-24 roster of:
PG - Fox / Mitchell / Ellis
SG - Huerter / Monk / Davis
SF - Murray / Edwards / Dozier
PF - Barnes / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Metu / Holmes / Queta
2023 Picks - SAC 1st / IND 2nd / SAC 2nd
Then in the 2024 off-season, let’s say we use who we drafted with our 2023 1st to shed Holmes’ contract in a salary dump type trade, and we waive/give up bird rights to Ellis, Monk, Davis, Edwards, Dozier, Lyles, Metu, Queta, 2023 IND 2nd, & 2023 SAC 2nd, we’d only have $25.76 mil in cap space. That would allow us to offer a max of $111.06 mil/4 years (~$27.77 mil/year).
Is that enough to land a Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, or Anthony Davis? No, and not even close in my opinion. A 7-9 year max will be $42.9 mil in the 1st year. You’d likely have to sell off Barnes (and maybe Mitchell) for cap space to have a chance at one of those guys.
The next tier is likely Anunoby who would be a perfect fit with this core (both in skillset & age). Would a $27.77 mil/year contract be enough? I hope so but my gut tells me we’d be outbid.
The next tier would likely be guys like Jaden McDaniels, Devin Vassell, & Aleksej Pokusevski. However, all of these guys would be RFAs. $27.77 mil/year might be enough to convince a team not to match but are these guys really that much better than Cam Johnson, Grant Williams, PJ Washington, etc.? Would it be better to maintain a lot of our depth and have one of Cam Johnson, Grant Williams, and PJ Washington or to lose a lot of our depth and have one of Jaden McDaniels, Devin Vassell, & Aleksej Pokusevski? I’d opt for the depth and Johnson/Williams/Washington.
So that really only leaves Anunoby as the only better outcome if we punt to the 2024 offseason. He’d be a perfect fit with our guys and would really help cover a lot of our defensive shortcomings but it’d be quite the risk. There’s a lot to like about a core of…
PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray / Barnes
PF - Anunoby
C - Sabonis