hammystyle
Starter
I agree. I think he'd be in real consideration as a swing for the fences type pick.
Who do you think is the "surprise player"?
- Thread starter King-Da-Yah
- Start date
I agree. I think he'd be in real consideration as a swing for the fences type pick.
Even they would be a surprise now, since Jerry has told us it will be a surprise.
Nice job of screwing with everybody's head, Jerry! I bet Geoff's giving you lessons.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Here's the thing -- we haven't even brought in any of the top guys for workouts yet, so how could Jerry make that statement as anything but pure smokescreen? And if he DID tip our hand early because of some super secret inside scoop we've got a month before the draft, well....duh.
roasthawg
Starter
I agree... Aldrich would be a great pick IF Cousins is gone.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I tend to agree with you in general. I do think he's a better player than he's been allowed to show so far. It's also highly possible that Calapari was trying to hide him for next year. Calapari did seem surprised when Orton and Bledsoe both opted for the draft this year. So Orton's limited minutes may have been by design as opposed to limited talent.. Or not..
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I think there's some truth to your statement, but there were other factors that contributed. This draft is loaded with big men, so the competition in the pecking order was pretty tough. Udoh came out of nowhere and climbed the draft boards. Monroe improved his game from the previous season. So there's a lot of good talent there. Add in that North Carolina lost Lawson and really didn't have good replacement. So Davis found himself in almost the same position that Favors was in.
I think a winning team will get you more notice. That can be a good thing or a bad thing. But how your utilitized on the team and how your able to capitalize on your opportunities is more important than the teams winning record. Davis had fewer opportunities to showcase his talent. That wasn't his fault, but it left some doubts non the less. Thus he's a little lower on the boards.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I will say this about Montiejunas -- he would appear to completely fly in the face of our toughness movement and everybody comparing him to Bargnani is scary because I absolutely detest that soft *** weenie's game and consider him borderline useless the way he plays the game. But from the few clips I have seen of Montiejunas there is a chance he could be much more. And you know everytime another of these soft Euroball seven footers come over its always the same thing that gets said. And for every Dirk there are 10 Tskitishvilis. But for whatever reason, you watch Montiejunas move -- and he really moves for a 7 footer -- and he's more fluid than Jason, he drops post moves that look suspiciously like Dirk's, and he takes guys off the dribble with speed. And he's Lithuanian -- a minor recommendation that was of no help to Martynas Andriuskevicius, but that means that he comes from the Sabonis school (in fact Sabonis is his hero, or at least his dad's) rather than the true soft *** weenie school. Sabonis school would be inside out, skilled but not necessarily soft. In any case, you can see the huge potential there if he can just escape Europe and come over someplace where they know what a weight set looks like. After you get past the Top 4 guys, he might have as much chance to become a star as sanybody in the draft. Or to be another soft Euro big fail of course. But if you are in draft a star mode, he would be a real option. And maybe just maybe not as soft as the Bargnani comparisons make him sound.
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Dime Dropper
All-Star
Just want to make a point - the best Euro big men are better than the best American white big men, and by quite some distance. Which leads me to believe that it is a thing of genetics (shock, horror) which determines "softness". Perhaps the Euro bigs are merely playing to their natural strengths.
However, I'm not disagreeing with you and I'm sure you already knew what I just said. Just thought I'd point it out. It's pretty much irrelevant to this particular discussion, and I'm not that particularly fond of Montiejunas, but we'll see how he turns out. I'm a fan of power myself, and not the finesse type play.
The softness often described is due to genetics and not merely the style of basketball played. If that were the case then the big American white guys wouldn't generally be so soft either. And believe me, Euro ball has it's fair share of big tough and rough big guys who love to do the dirty work. They just usually aren't talented enough to hit the big time.
hammystyle
Starter
For comparison's sake, they both played for the same team in Italy, Benneton Treviso. You can see Bargnani's stats, here and Motiejunas stats here.
In their last years in Benneton Motiejunas' overall production at age 19 was almost identical to Bargnani's at age 21. A couple things worth noting.
A) Motiejunas is a skinny wimp right now and he's rebounding at the same rate Bargnani did as a 245 lb 21 year old. Bargnani didn't have any more room to develop and thus was the same rebounder then as he is now. I don't know how much weight Motiejunas will add, but you've got to figure he's good for another 20-30 lbs.
B) Bargnani shot three 3 pointers a game, in Italy and that's where he was most effective. Motiejunas shot just one a game. I think this is a plus. Motiejunas was getting his points inside the arc as a 215 kid in a man's league. Bargnani didn't then and still hasn't entered the paint in the NBA. Nowitzki is a great shooter, but he's a great player because he can shoot as well as drive and post.
I don't want to extrapolate that out too far and draw too many conclusions off it, but I think its interesting. An ultra-skilled pick and pop 4 would be a real nice fit next to Reke as long as he can manage to be a solid defender and rebounder.
...here we go again...
ElRey
Starter
European/Foreign players have a label for being soft. But I think you have to take it from an individual basis. Look at Sarunas Marciulionis that dude was tough as nails! and it's not fair also to just look at a guy, say he's skinny and
he's automatically soft. Being "soft" is more mental than anything. Some guys are just tough, and some guys are just wimps. Look at the our own Spencer Hawes...he's not that underweight compared to other NBA centers, but he's a wimp!
Dime Dropper
All-Star
I'm sorry, when has this debate ever taken place on this board? Quite simply, it hasn't. And that doesn't mean I want it to. I'm just pointing out the facts, because many Americans want to pretend that lack of athleticism comes from being European and not from not being white. Sorry, but the truth hurts.
Anyway, back on topic. I'm not Motiejunas' biggest fan as already pointed out, but he does have talent. He would have value on this team as a versatile, long PF who can shoot a little and use athleticism. But he'll never be a defensive force and unless you want to turn into another finesse team, he wouldn't be a good fit unless he's paired next to a big physical center. I believe there is a guy named Cousins in this draft who could fit the bill.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
I've never had many doubts about Motiejunas' offensive upside. He obviously needs to get a lot stronger, but he's 7'0 w/o shoes, incredibly skilled for his age and height, and a very quick and agile athlete. My concern with him is his lack of defense and rebounding. I think I would take him over Monroe, just because at this point I just feel like I'd rather swing for a homerun, but I wouldn't take him over Johnson. Considering he's not very long (6'11 wingspan) for his height and he's not a great leaper, I don't know if he's a strong gamble as a rebounder and defender. He could be a very special player offensively, but if he lacks on the other end of the ball that much, that's just more we're going to have to make up with some other player at the other frontcourt position. That's a big gamble, but if we take him I can't say I'd be that upset, because Petrie would obviously have seen something in him and I don't think he would take that gamble frivolously.
His skills are really incredible though. He's a very good ball handler, he can pass, he's got a smooth looking jumper with a quick release, he's got good footwork, and a good touch around the basket with both hands. He could be like Gasol but quicker and with a smoother jump shot.
His skills are really incredible though. He's a very good ball handler, he can pass, he's got a smooth looking jumper with a quick release, he's got good footwork, and a good touch around the basket with both hands. He could be like Gasol but quicker and with a smoother jump shot.
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ElRey
Starter
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Last year, before the workouts, Jerry told Napier that he was very high on Tyreke. So there's no reason why he can't have a strong hunch on a guy before the workouts. It's happened before.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
Sounds interesting. If he is a quick player, then he should have the potential to be pretty good defensively, don't you think? I like the swing for the fences mentallity. I think they did that last year with Tyreke and it obviously went over the fence.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
Better than Gasol?! I like that
Offensive skills wise, yes, I think he could be. That's very much a pie in the sky projection though, because even though Motiejunas has the basis for a good post game, that doesn't mean he's going to develop it to an extremely high level like Gasol did. Gasol is still a good athlete in his own right and he's also 7'1, and with a longer wingspan. He may have the potential for more all around skills than Gasol, but that doesn't mean he's going to develop his perimeter game to Bosh/Dirk's level, or his post game to Gasol's level. There's a discernible level of polish that happened between all of their games and it's not something that's easy/likely to accomplish.
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Vlade4GM
All-Star
He supposedly has balance issues that he has to overcome. IMO, quickness is important, but it's only one piece of the puzzle in a player having the physical talent to become a good defender. Balance, strength, reach, and upward explosiveness are also very important.
Eh, I'd bank on his rookie season being a LOT more like Dirk's (8 and 3) than Pau's (18 and 9 and rookie of the year). In fact I'm not sure he'd pull down 3.4 boards a game like Nowitzki did. Either way, the point is that like Dirk he would come in raw and needing development.
And beyond that, he's a much more of an attack the basket player than a shoote like Bargnani or a post player like Gasol. Nowitski is probably the closest comparison but he's not as good as Dirk was coming into the NBA and Nowitzki's game improved dramatically once he was in the league.
I don't see him ever becoming a Gasol like player either, mainly because he lacks one of Pau's greatest strengths - his reach. Motiejunas has a wingspan reach than most players his size where Gasol has ridiculously long arms. That and his skill in the post make him the closest thing I've seen to Kevin McHale since Mr. 60/80 hung them up.
I don't see anything the Kings really need in Motiejunas.
And beyond that, he's a much more of an attack the basket player than a shoote like Bargnani or a post player like Gasol. Nowitski is probably the closest comparison but he's not as good as Dirk was coming into the NBA and Nowitzki's game improved dramatically once he was in the league.
I don't see him ever becoming a Gasol like player either, mainly because he lacks one of Pau's greatest strengths - his reach. Motiejunas has a wingspan reach than most players his size where Gasol has ridiculously long arms. That and his skill in the post make him the closest thing I've seen to Kevin McHale since Mr. 60/80 hung them up.
I don't see anything the Kings really need in Motiejunas.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
I think we're just talking more pure potential with these comparisons than polish or readiness.
You're right about there being a difference between Pau and DM reach wise. 6'11 wingspan on a 7 footer is not good length, he can still have a solid standing reach standing at 7'1 in shoes, but that's not a good sign.
beb0p
Starter
I'm high on Motiejunas, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be a good offensive player in the league; the question is how good - is he a superstar or more of a Toni Kukoc? And how much can you stomach a good offensive player who absolutely sucks on defense? And here's the thing, no matter how much he improves he will never be a good defender, at best he gives you Dirk type defense with less rebounding. At worse he makes Mikki Moore looks like Bill Russell. Ideally you need to surround Motiejunas with athletic and good defensive players, especially a great defensive big man to play next to him.
But here's another thing - this kid has the skill of a SF. In fact, there was talk of him playing the 3 earlier in his career, it's how skilled he is. In the high post, he plays like how you wish Greg Monroe could play like - able to knock down the jumpers consistently, able to beat your man off the dribble in either direction, and able to finish at the rim with either hand. And here's another thing I really like about Motiejunas - he can create something out of nothing. He has the ability to pick apart defenses in ways that would make Vlade Divac proud. And on top of that, Motiejunas does not shy away from the post and has very good footwork in additional to being nearly ambidextrous.
Motie is not fast but he has a very good handle - he can go left or right equally well. He has a quick first step, he can create the angle with his dribble, and with his size he only needs a little daylight to thrust himself into the lane. He is basically a walking, breathing mismatch whenever he steps on the floor. Who is going to guard a 7 footer with SF skill, moves like a 6'-8" dude, and can post up? Maybe KG can guard him, maybe a couple more but that has to be it.
I think his ceiling is just as high as Cousins or Favors, but the downside is that the risk is much greater too. What if he never gain much strength? What if he continues to suck on defense? What if he is unable to withstand the physicality of the NBA with that skinny body? And to make matters worse, he isn't as consistent as you'd like. He has a tendency to coast at times. He does disappear from games. However, there seems to be a switch that he can turn on or off at will and when that switch is on this kid is incredible. But it doesn't give teams the confidence to pick a kid who may not go hard all the time.
At #5, this would be a swing for the fence pick, no doubt about it.
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But here's another thing - this kid has the skill of a SF. In fact, there was talk of him playing the 3 earlier in his career, it's how skilled he is. In the high post, he plays like how you wish Greg Monroe could play like - able to knock down the jumpers consistently, able to beat your man off the dribble in either direction, and able to finish at the rim with either hand. And here's another thing I really like about Motiejunas - he can create something out of nothing. He has the ability to pick apart defenses in ways that would make Vlade Divac proud. And on top of that, Motiejunas does not shy away from the post and has very good footwork in additional to being nearly ambidextrous.
Motie is not fast but he has a very good handle - he can go left or right equally well. He has a quick first step, he can create the angle with his dribble, and with his size he only needs a little daylight to thrust himself into the lane. He is basically a walking, breathing mismatch whenever he steps on the floor. Who is going to guard a 7 footer with SF skill, moves like a 6'-8" dude, and can post up? Maybe KG can guard him, maybe a couple more but that has to be it.
I think his ceiling is just as high as Cousins or Favors, but the downside is that the risk is much greater too. What if he never gain much strength? What if he continues to suck on defense? What if he is unable to withstand the physicality of the NBA with that skinny body? And to make matters worse, he isn't as consistent as you'd like. He has a tendency to coast at times. He does disappear from games. However, there seems to be a switch that he can turn on or off at will and when that switch is on this kid is incredible. But it doesn't give teams the confidence to pick a kid who may not go hard all the time.
At #5, this would be a swing for the fence pick, no doubt about it.
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I'm just trying to be polite. The argument you're making is heading quickly in the direction of eugenics and I don't think it's a fair argument. We can debate all day what the causes are but to state something as "fact" which is really just a hasty observation doesn't really contribute anything. There have been all sorts of "facts" ascribed to different nationalities over the years which turn out not to be true. I just don't see the point of even going there.
Ultimately all basketball prospects are evaluated on the same criteria. Whether or not they're tough has nothing to do with what they look like and everything to do with how they play. Sure genetics plays a role in determining anyone's future as an athlete -- I wouldn't deny that. But nobody is saying we shouldn't draft Motiejunas because he's European and therefore inferior in some way. The discussion is whether, based on everything we know, Donatas Motiejunas will be one of the best NBA players in this draft. If John Wall played for Italy he would still be the #1 pick in the draft.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
As the root source of this whole debate is Jerry's comment about a surprise player. I think it should be noted that when Whitey and company started persuing who that player might be, one of them asked if it might be a foreign player. Jerry delivered a flat NO! He even said its possible that no foreign player would be drafted in the lottery. If true, then I think we can remove Motiejunas from the list. However, I do think he'll go in the lottery. Just not to us.. Unless of course its all just a smoke screen..... Naw! Jerry wouldn't do that, would he?
Vlade4GM
All-Star
It's really impossible to predict before team workouts really start to take off, but I'd probably predict Motiejunas' range anywhere between 8-20.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I don't know how many people listened to the podcast. But Jerry couldn't resist getting in his shots at Rubio. When Whitey brought up that Rubio had improved his shot and was playing at a higher level. Jerry said he watched the championship game and suddenly the other team put the great, world renown defender, Patrick Beverly on Rubio. And he quickly stole the ball and smothered Rubio defensively so bad that they took him out of the game.
Don't know if there's any truth in that. But Jerry was funny while telling the story.
Don't know if there's any truth in that. But Jerry was funny while telling the story.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
He did give Rubio trouble in that game, that is true. However, ignoring what Rubio accomplished this year based solely on one game, is very stupid. I watched many of his games and this kid is a 19 year old that stepped onto one of the highest profile teams in all of Europe and was a very integral player in their championship run. If he seriously can't give credit to what Rubio accomplished this year, then I would guess he was speaking out of bitterness towards the initial fan reaction to the Kings not taking Rubio.
This discussion has taken place before, with you as part of it, and it stops now. Race has NOTHING to do with basketball skills, and we will not delve into that ugly discussion - leads nowhere and just causes problems. Infractions will follow for those who push the issue. Fair warning.
Chupacabra
Starter
Yeah, i just dont care for European bigmen because so much of their game is played away from the basket. If youre the tallest guy on the court it makes sense to be as close to the basket as possible at all times. Thats just logic. Individual defense doesnt seem to have great value in FIBA play either. In the NBA individual defense is essential. When i think of what i want in a big I dont think of shooting ability. I think of someone who throws their body around and alters shots. No to Motiejunas.
hammystyle
Starter
That seems about dead on with the realities of his defensive potential contrasting the talent offensively. That upside is so tantalizing. Imagine in an alternate uiverse that Dallas had drafted Dirk a year after drafting 20 year old Tyreke Evans. How many finals would that duo have played in?
Fun to think about, but the reality is probly not going to approach that.
