Who do we draft?
- Thread starter Folsomkingsfan
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True, and that's tied to the teams in each of those slots, I believe. Typically, I don't remember them accounting for team needs this early, but they've been doing a team-needs-based mock for the Vertical.
For what it's worth, Fox is 5th on DX's top prospects/big board. Specifics will matter a lot more post-lottery.
For what it's worth, Fox is 5th on DX's top prospects/big board. Specifics will matter a lot more post-lottery.
The good news is teams dont overreact to huge games like fans do. Fox very well could go 4, but the deciding factor won't be " oh dude dropped 39 on Ball, draft him!"
This is such an interesting draft starting at 4 as I think we will see teams focus on need rather than BPA because there really isn't a BPA from the 4-11 prospects. Team order will be very important
This is such an interesting draft starting at 4 as I think we will see teams focus on need rather than BPA because there really isn't a BPA from the 4-11 prospects. Team order will be very important
Dammit, I think Fox just played himself out of our draft position. Teams may not overreact to one game but he's been the best PG in college basketball for a month already and this was just the exclamation mark at the end of it. A team hurting for a PG might take him in the top 3. I've got him ranked above Ball no question already and I guarantee you I'm not the only one. Westbrook couldn't shoot either. Kidd-Gilchrist couldn't shoot. Those guys went 4th and 2nd overall on the strength of their defense, athleticism, and intangibles. We may have to settle for Smith Jr. or Ntilikina or maybe we don't get any of them. Great game for Fox, but Philly and New Orleans making late charges with nothing to lose have really hosed our draft hopes.
Maybe not superstar, but I've seen nothing out of him that shows me he will be a bust and am not sure what you see that makes you say that. Great 3 point shot and one of the best passers I've seen come out of college in a while. He always seems to make the right play. Obviously he has some weaknesses, but if we got the 2nd pick somehow and didnt take him id be a one man riot.
People saying he's a bust probably just haven't watched him play enough. He's definitely a very talented player but I think he's been overhyped. I think he's a solid starter in the league and fringe All-Star not a franchise player. UCLA is an older team this year filled with 3rd and 4th year players who haven't won a lot. They play uptempo and Ball is great at delivering the ball to their scorers and these guys are hungry. It's a good storyline if you like that kind of thing but the system covers up a lot of Ball's weaknesses. He plays well when he can get into the open court and run but he struggles when physical guards get into him. He's surprisingly fast on the break but as a bigger guard I think his ball control in traffic still needs work. He's a willing defender but he's not strong enough and he doesn't get low to the ground on the perimeter which gives quicker guards a chance to blow by him. Some of that he makes up in length and anticipation and he'll get a fair number of blocks because of his size and athleticism but he may never be an impact player on that end.
Everyone has their weaknesses at this level. We have to remember that these are teenagers, they may be exceptionally talented but they're still going to make mistakes. I don't have Ball in my top 5 because there are players in this draft that I like more but he's an elite prospect with exceptional court vision who should be a lead guard in the NBA for a long time. Consensus top 3? Naw, I don't see it. Fun to watch when his team is rolling and he's nailing shots but for me he's in the lower half of the top 10 in this stacked draft and the 5th PG off the board after Fultz, Fox, Ntilikina, and Smith all of whom you could make a case for as the best PG in any draft since John Wall.
Everyone has their weaknesses at this level. We have to remember that these are teenagers, they may be exceptionally talented but they're still going to make mistakes. I don't have Ball in my top 5 because there are players in this draft that I like more but he's an elite prospect with exceptional court vision who should be a lead guard in the NBA for a long time. Consensus top 3? Naw, I don't see it. Fun to watch when his team is rolling and he's nailing shots but for me he's in the lower half of the top 10 in this stacked draft and the 5th PG off the board after Fultz, Fox, Ntilikina, and Smith all of whom you could make a case for as the best PG in any draft since John Wall.
Westbrook shot 40% his freshman year on a very small sample size. His sophomore year he got more minutes but still had to share the ball with Collison, Love, Shipp and Mbah a Moute. So he didn't have a permanent green light but still shot 77 threes and hit 34% of them. Fox has had much more of a green light and only shot 65 threes, hitting just 23% of them. And that's with opponents giving him space to shoot. If defenses played Ball like they played Fox he'd shoot 10 threes a game and probably shoot around 50% on them.
MKG is a better comparison. He took even fewer threes in his one year at Kentucky (55) though he hit on a slightly higher percentage (25.5%). Both guys had/have impressive physical tools. Kidd-Gilchrist is 6'6" with a 7' wingspan and a 36" vertical while carrying 233lbs at the draft. Fox has a very slight build and an average wingspan for his height but gets off the ground quickly and is among the fastest PGs I've ever watched.
Westbrook continually improved as a shooter. MKG never did. And that's certainly part of the story as to why Russ is an MVP candidate and MKG is a role player. I love Fox and I think he'll be a good NBA PG. But the difference between being a decent starter and a star is becoming a consistent threat from outside. Fox is ahead of MKG in that his shot mechanics don't look broken but I think sometimes we think it's easier for guys to become better shooters than it is. Many guys improve, but few guys make a huge leap and even when they do it often takes years. Kawhi is often brought up as the hope for other guys who were poor college shooters but Kawhi is a major outlier in NBA history.
I still am torn on Fox and Ntilikina but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't impressed with his performance last night. Looking at each score, it was all stuff he's shown before, but that he was constantly in attack mode and able to put points up when the defense sagged on him on night was good to see.
DX has us taking Fox and then Isaac and I'd love that. Isaac and Ntilikina would also make me really happy. But Philly and New Orleans are making me worried that one or both picks could be out of the top 1o when all is said and done. Especially when the Sixers have (I think) 2 more games against Brooklyn and a pretty soft schedule overall.
MKG is a better comparison. He took even fewer threes in his one year at Kentucky (55) though he hit on a slightly higher percentage (25.5%). Both guys had/have impressive physical tools. Kidd-Gilchrist is 6'6" with a 7' wingspan and a 36" vertical while carrying 233lbs at the draft. Fox has a very slight build and an average wingspan for his height but gets off the ground quickly and is among the fastest PGs I've ever watched.
Westbrook continually improved as a shooter. MKG never did. And that's certainly part of the story as to why Russ is an MVP candidate and MKG is a role player. I love Fox and I think he'll be a good NBA PG. But the difference between being a decent starter and a star is becoming a consistent threat from outside. Fox is ahead of MKG in that his shot mechanics don't look broken but I think sometimes we think it's easier for guys to become better shooters than it is. Many guys improve, but few guys make a huge leap and even when they do it often takes years. Kawhi is often brought up as the hope for other guys who were poor college shooters but Kawhi is a major outlier in NBA history.
I still am torn on Fox and Ntilikina but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't impressed with his performance last night. Looking at each score, it was all stuff he's shown before, but that he was constantly in attack mode and able to put points up when the defense sagged on him on night was good to see.
DX has us taking Fox and then Isaac and I'd love that. Isaac and Ntilikina would also make me really happy. But Philly and New Orleans are making me worried that one or both picks could be out of the top 1o when all is said and done. Especially when the Sixers have (I think) 2 more games against Brooklyn and a pretty soft schedule overall.
I disagree. They aren't comparing him to Jason Kidd in his prime. They are saying that Lonzo Ball's game mirrors Jason Kidd's early in his career and that isn't that far off. Kidd averaged 13/5/8 in his first year at Cal. Ball averaged 15/6/8. Both players are great pass first players who always seem to make the right play. Obviously Kidd was a way better defender, but Lonzo is the way better 3 point shooter. Lonzo played amazing in his first year at UCLA. He definitely has some things to work on, but he was the best guard this year outside of Fultz. I feel like most people are just finding ways to not like him since his dad is annoying AF and he seems most likely to wind up on the Lakers. I hope that doesn't happen either, but I'm not going to pretend like I don't want the guy or he played well 0nly because of who was on his team. If by some miracle we ended up with the second pick and Ball was there and we took Fox I bet most of you who say you don't want him would call for Vlade's resignation.
The more NO and Philli surg the more I want to know how much lead guard Monk has in him. After last night against GS, Hield got my hopes up he does have some ability to facilitate. Bogdan as well. If Monk has it too, then even if our picks miss out on Fox, Smith, Ntil.... we could still have two pretty decent distributing guards on the floor at all times.
Monk may go earlier than I think but Im looking for positives.
Monk may go earlier than I think but Im looking for positives.
Could be. Fox was my favorite player in this whole freshman class though even before the season started so it's actually the opposite with me. If we pick Ball over Fox or Jackson I'll be pissed. I've never understood the hype with Ball. Is he great prospect? Absolutely. But people have been talking about him all season as a cut above everyone except Fultz and I don't get that. He's a game manager. We had one of those last year and everyone hated him. Fox picks up full court defense all game every game and slithers around screens like a pro already. In my world he's a 99th percentile defensive PG and that's something I'll gush like Bill Walton over until people tune me out. 
I dont watch ESPN so i dont even really know what his father said, my opinion is based on basketball and what I have watched.
He could not get a bucket in college when his team absolutely needed it, the shot was too slow when things got tight. He was floating on defense as he has all year and just looking for cheap steals. He wont be able to hide in the league like that. He feasted on a lot of mediocre teams this year in a uptempo system and his body is no where near ready for the pros, he is far more slender than stauskas was and we all saw how teams would single out stauskas and pick on him to draw fouls or score, he was basically unplayable. The playmaking is good but in the league things are faster (like UK was last night) probing for assists is much tougher. Remember how good Kendall Marshalls passing was?
Again im just a fan who watches as everyone else on here. I dont see him as a franchise player at all and definately not a Top 3 pick in this draft. These days you have to have elite scoring from the PG position to hang with the Lillards, Kyries,Currys etc in addition to playmaking ability and I just dont see that or the potential for that.
I dont hate the kid and once he grows into his frame and works on his game he could be a solid NBA player. People say his dad talking is creating the hate well I can argue the other side. People may be becoming intrigued with Lonzo as he must be great since his father talking can create such an uproar. Im sure the 92 point cherrypicking game from his brother and all of the millions of views the high school highlights draw also dont hurt the hype either. Im just not spending a top 3 pick on him.
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