What's your pick today? (June 11, 2018)

[funkykingston]

That's fair. I've been in the position of defending Doncic a lot on this board mostly because I don't think it's fair to assume that he's going to struggle because he's not a freak athlete and that's the direction the conversation has gone but I like a lot of players in this draft too. I have my own rankings but regardless of who we pass over to get them, I would be pretty thrilled with adding Jaren Jackson, Mo Bamba, DeAndre Ayton, Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges, or even Marvin Bagley who isn't my favorite prospect here but he's got a lot of points in his favor. So that's 7 guys already and more than that -- I don't see how you take them at #2 over all these guys -- but I see a lot of sleeper potential with Wendell Carter and Collin Sexton too. The only guys projected in the top 10 that I wouldn't be happy with are Trae Young and Michael Porter.

The toughest part about this draft for me is that I want more than 1 of these guys! The other tough thing is that every one of them comes with a slight caveat which makes you talk yourself out of them. Ayton watching players dribble by him for layups just a little too much, Doncic occasionally looking like he's tripping over his own feet when pressured, Jackson making some of the dumbest reach-in fouls this side of Jason Thompson, Bamba missing too many shots at the rim for a guy with a 9'8" (!!) standing reach, Bagley almost single-handily blowing up Duke's zone defense with his poor awareness and/or lack of effort, Miles Bridges trying to be the rare 6'5" tweener forward to succeed in the NBA. I'll toy with picking each of them and then one of these factors will plant a seed of doubt in my mind and then I start thinking somebody else looks really good. I don't have anything negative to say about Mikal Bridges though -- so maybe he's the guy?

My big fear is that the mouthpieces of the Kings seem to be indicating that the Kings are barreling towards drafting Michael Porter Jr at #2. Again, I always freely acknowledge that I could be (and frequently am) wrong, but while I have some reservations with Doncic I'd absolutely take him over Porter Jr.

And while I really like Bamba, I chuckled a bit at your mention of him missing bunnies. I've saw him a few times this season get a pass under the rim or grab an offensive rebound and go up to dunk and get blocked by the rim. How is that even possible?

 

[206Fan]

Doncic. The only way I see the Kings passing up on him is if they truly think Bagley is AD 2.0... OR Doncic doesn't want to come here.

 

[funkykingston]

Doncic. The only way I see the Kings passing up on him is if they truly think Bagley is AD 2.0... OR Doncic doesn't want to come here.

Jaren Jackson has a better chance of being AD 2.0.

Bagley could be Chris Bosh with Faried's motor.

 

[hrdboild]

My big fear is that the mouthpieces of the Kings seem to be indicating that the Kings are barreling towards drafting Michael Porter Jr at #2.

And while I really like Bamba, I chuckled a bit at your mention of him missing bunnies. I've saw him a few times this season get a pass under the rim or grab an offensive rebound and go up to dunk and get blocked by the rim. How is that even possible?

Seriously though! It's almost like he's got a negative vertical leap or something. Just stand on your tiptoes and drop it in dude!

 

[206Fan]

Jaren Jackson has a better chance of being AD 2.0.

Bagley could be Chris Bosh with Faried's motor.

I meant offensively. His offense reminds me a lot of AD coming out of Kentucky. Just 2-3 years ago we were having the debate of Cousins vs. Davis and many said Cousins because Davis couldn't create his offense at all. They said he relied a ton on his teammates creating looks for him..lob/garbage man.

 

[funkykingston]

I meant offensively. His offense reminds me a lot of AD coming out of Kentucky. Just 2-3 years ago we were having the debate of Cousins vs. Davis and many said Cousins because Davis couldn't create his offense at all. They said he relied a ton on his teammates creating looks for him..lob/garbage man.

Yeah, I can see that. But if anything I think Bagley will develop his offense way faster than Davis did. He's already got better shot mechanics and he just looks so much more fluid on offense than Davis did coming out. I like JJJ but he has a bit of that young AD in terms of rumbling towards the basket while Bagley busts out a eurostep to go around a guy lays it in softly. He's so smooth on offense and while I kept wanting to see him pull up for a jumper off the dribble (just to see if he could) I realized that almost never had to because he could get past or around pretty much every big on the NCAA level.

It's funny, I can talk myself into pretty much every one of the top prospects except Porter or Young.

 

[hrdboild]

I meant offensively. His offense reminds me a lot of AD coming out of Kentucky. Just 2-3 years ago we were having the debate of Cousins vs. Davis and many said Cousins because Davis couldn't create his offense at all. They said he relied a ton on his teammates creating looks for him..lob/garbage man.

Yeah, that's a big oops isn't it? Those were the dying last days of post offense. I'm pretty sure we weren't thrilled about Cousins launching 3 triples a game also the first time that happened and you're borderline unplayable at this point if you shoot less than that. I wonder if 10 years from now my kids are going to ask me "Dad, what is a hook shot?"

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Here's the thing, we built this team around a superstar big man for 5+ seasons, it got us nothing.

I agree with most everything you said except the above. The Kings didn’t ‘build’ anything around Cousins. THAT was the problem. The same exact thing will happen with a wing if they keep drafting players that are out of the league in 3-4 years and can’t attract worthwhile free agents.

You swap any wing in the league with Cousins from 2010 - 2017 and that player wasn’t leading this franchise any further amid all the ownership/relocation chaos, coaching changes, blown draft picks, and poor trades/ free agent signings.

Wasn’t gonna happen.

 

[VF21]

Yeah, that's a big oops isn't it? Those were the dying last days of post offense. I'm pretty sure we weren't thrilled about Cousins launching 3 triples a game also the first time that happened and you're borderline unplayable at this point if you shoot less than that. I wonder if 10 years from now my kids are going to ask me "Dad, what is a hook shot?"

I can remember a certain guy with a bat who went into near-catatonic fits when Brad Miller did it even once.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I agree with most everything you said except the above. The Kings didn’t ‘build’ anything around Cousins. THAT was the problem. The same exact thing will happen with a wing if they keep drafting players that are out of the league in 3-4 years and can’t attract worthwhile free agents.

You swap any wing in the league with Cousins from 2010 - 2017 and that player wasn’t leading this franchise any further amid all the ownership/relocation chaos, coaching changes, blown draft picks, and poor trades/ free agent signings.

Wasn’t gonna happen.

Ok how about the team was inept at building around a big? And yeah, that really isn't Vlade's fault and maybe he thinks he can do it. I'm just saying I'd rather follow the current trends in the NBA right now than try to be the one team to successfully build around a big this decade. Because the closest things so far are Davis (playoff bottom feeder but a team going nowhere) and Embiid (which according to Colangelo's wife is Simmons's team )

 

[206Fan]

Yeah, I can see that. But if anything I think Bagley will develop his offense way faster than Davis did. He's already got better shot mechanics and he just looks so much more fluid on offense than Davis did coming out. I like JJJ but he has a bit of that young AD in terms of rumbling towards the basket while Bagley busts out a eurostep to go around a guy lays it in softly. He's so smooth on offense and while I kept wanting to see him pull up for a jumper off the dribble (just to see if he could) I realized that almost never had to because he could get past or around pretty much every big on the NCAA level.

It's funny, I can talk myself into pretty much every one of the top prospects except Porter or Young.

Bagley is raw, but I just know he'll be able to develop a 3pt shot. He's a very special talent. I hate that there are so many Kings fans on social media that are adamantly against him. Not even sure why considering most of them just watch highlights, and Bagley is a human highlight reel.

The only thing I see preventing Young from reaching star status in the NBA is if he's unable to handle the physicality. However, he's reportedly up to 183lbs now which will help with his slight frame. He can score at all 3 levels. His shot creating ability is the best among this class. He's a near-elite shooter. I like his offensive potential a lot. I think he's a player who can carry a franchise. I see mixes of Curry/Dame/Nash in him. At worst, he's Kemba Walker. I'm extremely high on him and have him as my #2 player in this class. Defense will be a big problem for him, but elite PGs in this league don't need defense..even if I heavily disagree with it.

MPJ is a guy who many seem to either like, or don't like. His skillset is intriguing, but the back poses as a big risks. I can see why some aren't high on him. 6'11 SF who has good, but not great athleticism. Doesn't have good ball handling for a SF. Relies heavily on his jumpshot. Needs to get stronger. Needs polish all-around. I won't argue as hard as I did in favor of MPJ, but I do think he has some of the best intangibles in terms of mentality and mindset. He knows he's great. He has 100% confidence in himself. He's not vocal, but he lets his game speak for himself.

At this point, I would be ok with Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Young, or Porter Jr at #2.

 

[hrdboild]

I can remember a certain guy with a bat who went into near-catatonic fits when Brad Miller did it even once.

I don't remember that, but if Brad did it I bet it was the right move at the time. He's famed for his good judgment after all...

... Oh my, how did that get there?

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Ok how about the team was inept at building around a big? And yeah, that really isn't Vlade's fault and maybe he thinks he can do it. I'm just saying I'd rather follow the current trends in the NBA right now than try to be the one team to successfully build around a big this decade. Because the closest things so far are Davis (playoff bottom feeder but a team going nowhere) and Embiid (which according to Colangelo's wife is Simmons's team )

See, I think it’s better and smarter to take a different approach than to follow current trends. Most of the 29 other franchises are doing that and it makes it harder.

5 years ago, the Warriors went against current trends and ended up winning in a different way. Other franchises before them have done the same.

Instead of competing with every other team for the same types of players to run the same type of perimeter oriented offense and likely never have the personnel to do it better than teams like GSW, Houston and Boston, I’d rather see them try to find players that can punish those teams for playing small. More of a hybrid approach, if you will. Incorporate the new with the old.

 

[Blob]

https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2018...s-hes-a-great-defender-but-has-a-lot-to-learn

The Kings tested Bagley's perimeter skills yesterday. Bagley said it was a significant focus. I think the Kings wanted to be convinced whether he could play three. Did he pass the test? I don't know but if he showed polished skills I think it will go a significant way to whether he will be the pick. If the Kings are confident Bagley can spend time at small forward, and exploit his height and length advantage there, he becomes a more viable candidate. The second player in this draft should be multi-positional and if it is discerned he is not ready to play small ball 5 (yet) he should be versatile and talented enough the slide to small forward. Even setting aside the idea of 3/4/5, the question is how comfortable is he defending in space and making face up moves from the three point line and in. There were questions about Jayson Tatum perimeter game after he made 34% of threes at Duke. He undoubtedly impressed Danny in pre-draft and went onto shoot 43% from behind the arc. Tatum's and Bagley's game are nothing alike but the point is what a player can do is not always on full display. I noticed Doug Christie was on the sideline yesterday so it will be interesting to hear what he has to say about Bagley. I think reading between the lines will be indicative of whether Bagley flourished or flopped.

This is encouraging to me. Bagley displays small forward skills in this clip.

 

[funkykingston]

My current Kings draft board:

1. Marvin Bagley III
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jaren Jackson Jr
4 . DeAndre Ayton
5. Mo Bamba
6. Miles Bridges
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

 

[roasthawg]

https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2018...s-hes-a-great-defender-but-has-a-lot-to-learn


This is encouraging to me. Bagley displays small forward skills in this clip.

He's fluid and explosive, great athlete.

 

[roasthawg]

My current Kings draft board:

1. Marvin Bagley III
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jaren Jackson Jr
4 . DeAndre Ayton
5. Mo Bamba
6. Miles Bridges
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Ayton at #4 seems crazy low and I don't know about six and seven. I like the rest though.

 

[Ozymandias]

Seriously though! It's almost like he's got a negative vertical leap or something. Just stand on your tiptoes and drop it in dude!

He can touch 12'6"... That might be higher than anyone in the NBA currently can touch....

 

[Joshoua]

https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2018...s-hes-a-great-defender-but-has-a-lot-to-learn


This is encouraging to me. Bagley displays small forward skills in this clip.

He’s not playing SF man it’s PF/C your big needs to be able to play on the perimeter that’s why they wanted him to show that

 

[funkykingston]

Ayton at #4 seems crazy low and I don't know about six and seven. I like the rest though.

I'm not high on Ayton. I think Bagley's defensive issues will be mitigated by him guarding more perimeter oriented guys on the next level while Ayton will have to be the defensive anchor. And he often looked disinterested in giving effort on that end.

If I was sure Bamba would add weight/strength I'd likely have him over Ayton too.

 

[funkykingston]

He can touch 12'6"... That might be higher than anyone in the NBA currently can touch....

This is true. It is also true that Bamba was blocked by the rim multiple times this season when trying to go straight up for a dunk.

My takeaway from that us that Mo isn't vertically explosive from a standstill but is pretty explosive with a bit of momentum.

JJJ isn't vertically explosive from a standstill or on the run.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

See, I think it’s better and smarter to take a different approach than to follow current trends. Most of the 29 other franchises are doing that and it makes it harder.

5 years ago, the Warriors went against current trends and ended up winning in a different way. Other franchises before them have done the same.

Instead of competing with every other team for the same types of players to run the same type of perimeter oriented offense and likely never have the personnel to do it better than teams like GSW, Houston and Boston, I’d rather see them try to find players that can punish those teams for playing small. More of a hybrid approach, if you will. Incorporate the new with the old.

But I think the "trends" are because shifts in the rules and how they are called. Big men are less effective because they foul out more often. Their bodies also break down sooner over the rigors of a season. The 3pt shot efficiency has become so high that it doesn't make sense to shoot 50% from inside anymore if you can hit 35%+ from 3.

It's like the NFL used to be run dominated for 25 years and they decided to make it more pass oriented and next thing you know most teams won't touch running backs in the first round of the draft, only want backs that can catch, the fullback is a dying breed, etc.

It used to be that you got a big like Cousins, Davis, Towns and it didn't matter you destroyed all in your path. But it doesn't work that way. Are those guys just not good or is it just a new game now?

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Bagley seems like the guy who would be everyone’s #2 in the draft war room, and could easily become the compromise pick if consensus cannot be built around the other candidates. He’s an easy culture fit, addresses some major needs, and has a great pedigree.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

He can touch 12'6"... That might be higher than anyone in the NBA currently can touch....

If the rim was at 12 feet, that might mean something.

 

[roasthawg]

Bagley seems like the guy who would be everyone’s #2 in the draft war room, and could easily become the compromise pick if consensus cannot be built around the other candidates. He’s an easy culture fit, addresses some major needs, and has a great pedigree.

He seems like a safe pick, that's usually the way teams go.

 

[Suicide King]

I haven't watched as much of Doncic as some but I've watched 6 or 7 full games as well as the normal highlight videos etc.

Almost no rookies are good team defenders from day one. And given that Luka wasn't aggressive in his rotations and closeouts in the Euroleague I find it hard to believe that he'll be markedly improved starting out in the NBA. That said, he has very good instincts and timing so I think in time he will be a decent team defender. As for an individual defender? Poor lateral quickness, rarely in a good defensive stance, doesn't fight hard through screens and generally doesn't give as much effort on that end of the floor.

Doncic struggles to beat guys off the dribble now and often uses up a lot of clock with crossovers from the perimeter to try and get some kind of opening to compensate for not being able to put his head down and get a shoulder past his defender. Again, if his shot develops (and he has very good/simple mechanics) then I could see him being a decent scorer when playing off of a primary scoring option. But I don't see a kid where you can say, "go get a bucket" and he can do that each time. I'm a big Doncic fan, but I think he's a very high level complimentary player and not the best player on a playoff team.

Maybe if Fox takes a huge leap, Giles stays healthy and really is a stud, WCS finally comes to play each night and Hield and Bogdanovic continue to improve THEN Doncic might be the engine to something special.

The problem is that I think the Kings are much farther off than that and don't currently have any real building blocks. I think there are guys from this draft that will be perennial all-stars and make all-NBA teams. I'm just not sure Luka is one of them. I think he's likely a high level starter who is a ton of fun to watch, makes winning plays and makes one or two all-star games in his career. I'd like to be wrong though because I love watching him play.

Excellent post. As a Luka fan, I agree with everything you laid out. Only if who we now have on the roster can make some leaps, which they will inevitably, does what he brings have a chance at us winning a chip.

When you have the #2 pick in an excellent and top heavy draft, you make a move to win a chip. Not the last move, just one you may never see again.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

Wait....we got the #2 pick???!!!!!!

 

[ockingsfan]

Bagley seems like the guy who would be everyone’s #2 in the draft war room, and could easily become the compromise pick if consensus cannot be built around the other candidates. He’s an easy culture fit, addresses some major needs, and has a great pedigree.

Good points.

I think Vlade is big on fit and the desire a player has to be in Sacramento. I think that scored big point for D'Arron Fox last year. Bagley coming in for a personal workout may push him over the top, if the Kings aren't able to get a definitive health clearance on MPJ and are still lukewarm to Luka.

It's good to see Bagley hit some perimeter shots in the private workout.

Bagley is kinda like a saftey valve pick at #2. You know you will get a hard worker, ultra athletic and good production from him. You really can't go wrong with him. I don't know if he has the highest ceiling, but he definitely has a high floor.

I think it will come down to Doncic, MPJ, and Bagley on draft night.

 

[KingsCitizen]

In 2004, the Magic selected Howard (a high school phenom) over Okafor who was beasting the NCAA tournaments himself. Okafor was the safe pick for #1 on that, IMO. But Dwight has the most potential for the same reason that I can see in Bamba. Dwight's footspeed and jump timing are much better than any big man of this draft. Then there's the length and knack for blocking shots.
Howard "during his prime years" would be still be very productive in the way the NBA is played now.
Another factor that boosted Howard's career over Okafor was that he eventually played under a solid big man coach in Van Gundy.
Georger is one of the few coaches left who knows how to keep is big effective and dominant, that itself is a big plus on why a guy like Bamba is what the Kings should pick.

 

[ParniValjak]

Too many questions, I focus on the last one. Yes.

Joking aside, you didn't see Doncic play.
Why poor team defender? Why poor individual defender? He's a go to scorer as well, in case of need. Not the kind of player who care about his personal stats.

Go to scorer in Europe is not the same as the go to scorer in the NBA. That is what many of my fellow Europeans don’t seem to get. It is a much higher level of competition. Navarro was as big a go to scorer in Europe as there has been in recent times but in the NBA he was a good solid, scoring 6th man for Memphis. Not comparing Dončić to Navarro but the principle is the same.

I love Dončić’a game but for where the team is now, I am not sure he is exactly what the team needs at this point in time. If we already had a franchise guy on our team, Dončić is my pick all day every day and twice on Sundays.

Kings don’t really have a tendency of getting big name FAs