We're #8...

You're entitled to your opinion. I was high on Steven Adams during his Pitt days and wanted the Kings to draft him (and thought they would before Ben fell). Sabonis is a better player than Adams was in college. Its not even close. And I liked Adams a lot! The thing I find difficult to gauge is his size and athleticism (being fooled once by Thomas Robinson who was allegedly 6'10" before he showed up to training camp 6'8" :eek:) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.
His TS% was 3rd best in NCAA, his rebound rate was 5th best in NCAA. For a guy just turning 20, he has great hands, great footwork, great post moves with high release point. And I don't mean good, I mean great! If his size and athleticism checks out (legit 6'10 and 250 with decent speed and quickness), we should take him and send Boogie to Boston. :D
Sabonis is Tyler Hansbrough with shooting ability. Now if Hansbrough could shoot, his career might have turned out different, but he's still only a bench big even then. Any player of this size/length, who relied on his low post game in the NBA, failed. So when you strip him of his around the basket game, which can only be an occasional play here and there, you're left with some shooting with below par face-up game (dribbling and passing).
Adams is a 7-footer with excellent reach, strength and solid quickness. If a player of his dimensions and mobility is willing to apply himself on D, he's gonna be a guaranteed defensive presence. Doesn't matter, how hard Sabonis tries on D, he's gonna fail as an NBA interior defender.
 
Denzel Valentine is not worthy of #8 pick. He may not be much better than Seth Curry.
...
Potential stars IMHO at #8 are Sabonis (size and athleticism tests pending), Kriss Dunn and Jaylen Brown. One of these guys will be on the board. Marquess Chriss has some star potential but its going to take him more time than this trio I think can make more immediate contribution.
How do you figure that? (And that?)

I have a soft spot for neither of them, and I really can't favor one or the other.
My take here is that I don't see what you base such assertions on...

Knowing how draft picks eventually turn out, we should all be much more humble, IMHO. I mean - it's very close to utter guesswork.

Take your first assertion, for instance:

If we're to believe experts' opinions - mock drafts have Valentine at 12 (and Sabonis at 18). Those same mock drafts (in 2013-14) did not rank Seth Curry anywhere among the top 60. No resemblence.

If you were refering to similiarity in body measures or production - still not much supporting data. Valentine's size (6-6)* is nowhere close to Curry's (6-0), and it looks like he (Denzel) is an impressive rebounder for his size (7.5 rpg!) and his PER is through the roof (30! I believe that's higher than anyone's in the top 8 ranks, including Ingram & Simmons).

* The measurements, BTW, show that the "size-challenged" Valentine and the "size-blessed" Sabonis actually have identical wingspan (6-10.5')!! :eek:

But besides that - the "experts" themselves miss out tremedously in those mock drafts. While neither Sabonis nor Valentine were deemed "worthy of 8th spot" in the mock draft, the same was true for Kawhi Leonard (14) in his mock draft in 2011, whereas D-Will was ranked 2nd... o_O

In short - I can't even comment on your self-assured claims with the little I know. And I have a feeling that they are not that well founded.
 
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Then in a related story there is this:

The Sacramento Kings are prepared to not engage in a bidding war to keep Rajon Rondo.

Rondo had a return to form after signing a make good contract with the Kings, but they still finished outside of the playoffs.

The Kings have hired Dave Joerger to replace George Karl as head coach.

Zach Lowe/ESPN
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
I remember last year hoping that Trill would drop to us, and he did. I can't say I feel the same way with Dunn, if that is the case though, I'd consider that another gift from the basketball gods. I still think Dunn is going top 5, even if a team has no need for him, he is a great trade chip and I don't see a team that won't consider that as an option in order to invest in more draft picks.
 
Interesting. I wonder if his people feel the same way about Minnesota. Rubio is younger than Thomas and Bledsoe, after all.
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
What Sac needs to continue to do is draft guys with tremendous length and/or guys who are physically gifted and/or guys who can shoot. WCS fit that, Valentine appears to fit that, Dunn worries me in that he can't shoot but does other things well, Hield worries me as a guy who will struggle. Brown....really would like for him to fall but don't think it's going to happen. He's a guy who can contribute defensively right away.....very athletic.

What I don't want is the undersized guys we drafted for several years.....TRob, Jimmer.....or the physically weak guy in Stauskas. Bad, bad picks. WCS is a good pick....keep drafting guys like this and then the new staff develops them, that's how we get better long term. I'd keep the younger guys we draft going forward for stability.

Trade for better fitting pieces, even the role players such as Marco can bring back better fitting backups. Better yet, land a FA or 2 to fill spots and that is how you become better immediately.
 
Anyone concerned Dunn maybe trying to hide an injury here?

Wouldn't the prudent thing to do, would be to do the physical and get drafted as high as possible? Dropping 3-5 spots could cost him millions.

I know when WCS had questions on his ankle last year, he went through the physical.

This seems like a red flag to me.
 
Anyone concerned Dunn maybe trying to hide an injury here?

Wouldn't the prudent thing to do, would be to do the physical and get drafted as high as possible? Dropping 3-5 spots could cost him millions.

I know when WCS had questions on his ankle last year, he went through the physical.

This seems like a red flag to me.
I think this is more about controlling WHO gets the information. It would seem his agent wants to keep that info away from teams who already have young PGs.
 

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
I think this is more about controlling WHO gets the information. It would seem his agent wants to keep that info away from teams who already have young PGs.
Can't say I like this. At best he's worried about a competition for minutes - but if a team with an IT or a Jrue or a Mudiay drafts him, they're obviously interested in him. So why worry? But at worst there IS a problem with his shoulder. Basically, if we can't get his medicals and he drops to us, I'd be really reluctant to take him. I mean, maybe we get his medicals because he sees an open PG position here. Then we have all the info and I trust Vlade to make the right call. But if a top five guy is trying to hide from #8...
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
You're entitled to your opinion. I was high on Steven Adams during his Pitt days and wanted the Kings to draft him (and thought they would before Ben fell). Sabonis is a better player than Adams was in college. Its not even close. And I liked Adams a lot! The thing I find difficult to gauge is his size and athleticism (being fooled once by Thomas Robinson who was allegedly 6'10" before he showed up to training camp 6'8" :eek:) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.
First, I was very high on Adams as well. I remember watching him in the Jordan Brand international all star highschool game where he out played some very highly rated highschoolers from the US. Here's the thing. Sabonis was born with a basketball in his hands. Look who his father is. He grew up playing basketball. Adams on the other hand never touched a basketball until around his sophmore year of highschool. He was very new to the game, so to say that Sabonis is a better player right now than Adams was at the same time, is not a good argument in favor of Sabonis. Of course he is, and he should be. That's the reason I was high on Adams. He was new to the game, and yet out played some players his size with more experience. He's a far better athlete than Sabonis, and he's a lot taller and longer than Sabonis, who has T Rex arms.

Look, I've got nothing against Sabonis, I like him and if we were drafting somewhere begween 15 and 30, he would certainly be a player worth consideration. But first, were not in dire need of a PF, and were drafting at 8. If I'm going to reach, then I'm reaching for some one like Chriss, or Valentine.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Even if he is as advertised in terms of size at 6'10 in shoes with 6'10 wingspan it's not that exciting, and I don't think anyone would argue he is an above average NBA athlete (unlike Adams you brought up).

He was an effective scorer in college and a good rebounder (and he was great against Poetl who has NBA size and athleticism)- maybe I'm way off the mark but I can see some teams looking at him as poor-man's Kevin Love, Love was 6' 9.5 with 6' 11.25 wingspan (although I think he's a better athelete) and their stat lines are really similar:

Love: 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds (3.6 off), 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks with 2 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.1 2pt%, 35.4 3pt% (2.1 attempts), 76.7 FT% (6.6 attempts).

Sabonis: 17.5 points, 11.8 rebounds (3 off), 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.9 blocks with 2.6 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.5 2pt%, 35.7 3pt% (0.4 attempts), 76.8 FT% (5.5 attempts).

That's eerily similar, their percentages from all places are practically the same, they scored the same amount of points and almost the same amount of assists and steals.

There are differences of course- Love is the better shot blocker, has less turnovers, more offensive rebounds and gets to the line more (though both are doing very well) while Sabonis leads in total rebounds.
Of course Sabonis rarely shoot the 3, but when he does he has a decent percentage and he is a good FT shooter.

In any case it was too similar for me to not point it out :).
Yeah, as a matter of fact, in 36 games he took 14 three point shots, and most of them were wide open shots, which is why he took them. He's not someone, at least right now, that you can depend on to hit a three. He's a good shooter from about 12 feet in, and he's a decent to good passer, but he's not the passer that Love is, nor is anywhere near love when it comes to scoring away from the basket. But some of their abilities are similar.
 
What Sac needs to continue to do is draft guys with tremendous length and/or guys who are physically gifted and/or guys who can shoot. WCS fit that, Valentine appears to fit that, Dunn worries me in that he can't shoot but does other things well, Hield worries me as a guy who will struggle. Brown....really would like for him to fall but don't think it's going to happen. He's a guy who can contribute defensively right away.....very athletic.

What I don't want is the undersized guys we drafted for several years.....TRob, Jimmer.....or the physically weak guy in Stauskas. Bad, bad picks. WCS is a good pick....keep drafting guys like this and then the new staff develops them, that's how we get better long term. I'd keep the younger guys we draft going forward for stability.

Trade for better fitting pieces, even the role players such as Marco can bring back better fitting backups. Better yet, land a FA or 2 to fill spots and that is how you become better immediately.
LOL, you are all over the place. Want guys, who shoot well, but want Brown, and still you mention, that Dunn can't shoot...

player---------2pt jumpshots%--% of 2pt jumpshots assisted---3pt%---% of 3pt assisted
Brown--------------30.1-------------------------14.7-----------------30.0--------86.7
Dunn-soph--------41.8--------------------------12.5-----------------35.1--------44.4
Dunn-ju-----------29.6--------------------------20.0----------------37.5--------52.4

Everybody shoots worse on the move, than when set, so if Dunn was assisted on 86.7% of his 3-pointers, he would probably made 39% of them. Everybody likes to cite that bad miss to the left of the basket as an example of Dunn's bad shooting. I've seen 5 games of Denzel Valentine this season and saw him airball a couple of 3pt pull-ups. No one is going to accuse Valentine of inability to shoot.

P.S. and Valentine is not physically gifted. Very skilled and smart, yes, but pretty average athlete.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I disagree with the comparison... Valentine is three inches taller than Seth with a wingspan six inches longer. He's a far better rebounder and passer as well. The knock on him is his lack of athleticism preventing him from playing good defense in the NBA... Same thing was said about klay thompson and draymond green, two guys I think he compares favorably to in different ways. I want us to take Valentine at eight precisely because I feel he has the best chance of anybody in this draft outside of the top two picks of being an all star someday. The warriors were built on draft picks with similar scouting reports... High basketball iq, skilled, excellent shooter, lacking elite athleticism.
I think a better comparison defensively would Greivis Vasquez, who is similar size. Valentine is more talented offensively. I don't go on scouting reports, I go on what I see watching players play, and I saw Valentine play a lot. Believe me, I really like Valentine, but the defensive part really worries me. Now make Willie a starter and put a good defensive SF next to him, and maybe he's OK. But for a team that last in the league in defense, he's a risky choice. Scouts questioned Klay Thompsons ability to play defense in the NBA, but it's a little more than that with Valentine. But scouts have been wrong before.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I think it should be pointed out that Dunn's injury came at the beginning of his sophmore year, when I believe he played in only one game. He has since played two full seasons without a problem, while being named to all Big East team both years, and being named the Big East defensive player of the year both years. I think in Dunn's case, he wants to go to a team where he has a legit chance of starting. That would be the case with the Kings, and not so with some of the teams ahead of us. I don't blame him, most players want to start, but I'm not sure his plan will work. I hope so, I would love for him to slide to us.
 
Even if he is as advertised in terms of size at 6'10 in shoes with 6'10 wingspan it's not that exciting, and I don't think anyone would argue he is an above average NBA athlete (unlike Adams you brought up).

He was an effective scorer in college and a good rebounder (and he was great against Poetl who has NBA size and athleticism)- maybe I'm way off the mark but I can see some teams looking at him as poor-man's Kevin Love, Love was 6' 9.5 with 6' 11.25 wingspan (although I think he's a better athelete) and their stat lines are really similar:

Love: 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds (3.6 off), 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks with 2 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.1 2pt%, 35.4 3pt% (2.1 attempts), 76.7 FT% (6.6 attempts).

Sabonis: 17.5 points, 11.8 rebounds (3 off), 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.9 blocks with 2.6 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.5 2pt%, 35.7 3pt% (0.4 attempts), 76.8 FT% (5.5 attempts).

That's eerily similar, their percentages from all places are practically the same, they scored the same amount of points and almost the same amount of assists and steals.

There are differences of course- Love is the better shot blocker, has less turnovers, more offensive rebounds and gets to the line more (though both are doing very well) while Sabonis leads in total rebounds.
Of course Sabonis rarely shoot the 3, but when he does he has a decent percentage and he is a good FT shooter.

In any case it was too similar for me to not point it out :).
That's an interesting comparison (Love and Sabonis), and accurate in terms of two highly skilled players. It looks like Sabonis can palm the ball pretty easily, so that should help to compensate for having shorter arms.
 
I disagree with the comparison... Valentine is three inches taller than Seth with a wingspan six inches longer. He's a far better rebounder and passer as well. The knock on him is his lack of athleticism preventing him from playing good defense in the NBA... Same thing was said about klay thompson and draymond green, two guys I think he compares favorably to in different ways. I want us to take Valentine at eight precisely because I feel he has the best chance of anybody in this draft outside of the top two picks of being an all star someday. The warriors were built on draft picks with similar scouting reports... High basketball iq, skilled, excellent shooter, lacking elite athleticism.
More so than Buddy Hield? No way. Buddy Hield is a special player. Valentine is "meh".
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
LOL, you are all over the place. Want guys, who shoot well, but want Brown, and still you mention, that Dunn can't shoot...

player---------2pt jumpshots%--% of 2pt jumpshots assisted---3pt%---% of 3pt assisted
Brown--------------30.1-------------------------14.7-----------------30.0--------86.7
Dunn-soph--------41.8--------------------------12.5-----------------35.1--------44.4
Dunn-ju-----------29.6--------------------------20.0----------------37.5--------52.4

Everybody shoots worse on the move, than when set, so if Dunn was assisted on 86.7% of his 3-pointers, he would probably made 39% of them. Everybody likes to cite that bad miss to the left of the basket as an example of Dunn's bad shooting. I've seen 5 games of Denzel Valentine this season and saw him airball a couple of 3pt pull-ups. No one is going to accuse Valentine of inability to shoot.

P.S. and Valentine is not physically gifted. Very skilled and smart, yes, but pretty average athlete.
Valentine has size and length...granted his athleticism is in question but his agility numbers at the combine were ok....I like him.

Brown is an athlete who looks like he can contribute quickly as a defensive guy.

Thanks sunshine.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
I think this is more about controlling WHO gets the information. It would seem his agent wants to keep that info away from teams who already have young PGs.
If players/agents can keep info away from teams they don't want to sign with, then what good is the draft lottery? I think any player who registers for the draft should have to make any and all information available to ALL teams.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
LOL, you are all over the place. Want guys, who shoot well, but want Brown, and still you mention, that Dunn can't shoot...

player---------2pt jumpshots%--% of 2pt jumpshots assisted---3pt%---% of 3pt assisted
Brown--------------30.1-------------------------14.7-----------------30.0--------86.7
Dunn-soph--------41.8--------------------------12.5-----------------35.1--------44.4
Dunn-ju-----------29.6--------------------------20.0----------------37.5--------52.4

Everybody shoots worse on the move, than when set, so if Dunn was assisted on 86.7% of his 3-pointers, he would probably made 39% of them. Everybody likes to cite that bad miss to the left of the basket as an example of Dunn's bad shooting. I've seen 5 games of Denzel Valentine this season and saw him airball a couple of 3pt pull-ups. No one is going to accuse Valentine of inability to shoot.

P.S. and Valentine is not physically gifted. Very skilled and smart, yes, but pretty average athlete.
I don't get this narrative of Dunn having no outside shot. He shot 37.2% from the three. That doesn't make him elite, but it's respectable. Marcus Smart didn't have a shot. He shot under 30% (29.5%) from the three. Now if want to say that Dunn was an inconsistent three point shooter, I can go along with that. In Dunn's case, a lot of it comes down to shot selection, which he improved this past season. I mean he improved every year from his freshman year when he shot 28.6%.

I don't know how many people know this, but he didn't play PG full time at Providence until last season. When you look at his assist totals, it was an impressive season, averaging 6.2 assists. Especially when he only had one go to guy on his team, Ben Bentil. You know another player that didn't start playing PG until I believe his sophmore year in college? Stephen Curry. No, I'm not saying that he's the next Curry. Certainly can't shoot like Curry, but other parts of their games could be similar. Dunn is the better athlete. Just to show some similarities, here are some stats from both players last season in college.

Curry: 28.6 points per game - 20.2 attempts per game - 45.4% fgp - 38.7% 3pp - 5.6 assists - 3.7 turnovers - 4.4 rebounds - 2.5 steals.
Dunn: 15.4 points per game - 12.5 attempts per game - 44.8% fgp - 37.2% 3pp - 6.2 assists - 3.5 turnovers - 5.3 rebounds - 2.5 steals

Both players played three years of college ball, although technically Dunn is a senior, he missed his entire sophmore season with shoulder injuries. I think with some hard work, and he's a hard worker, Dunn will be an efficient three point shooter. His shot isn't broken, it just needs some tweaking. Of course this probably all a moot point unless the Kings move up in the draft.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
If players/agents can keep info away from teams they don't want to sign with, then what good is the draft lottery? I think any player who registers for the draft should have to make any and all information available to ALL teams.
Unfortuntely what we think, and what is, are two different things. I think all players that declare for the draft should have to participate in the combine, but it's not happening. At the same time, I'm not going to ignore a players talents because he didn't compete, or declare his medical records. If he had gone to the combine, he would have been required to declare his medical record, and that's probably the only reason he didn't go. As I pointed out earlier, Dunn suffered his shoulder injuries his sophmore year, and has since played two full seasons without incident. So on the surface, he would appear to be fine.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
Unfortuntely what we think, and what is, are two different things. I think all players that declare for the draft should have to participate in the combine, but it's not happening. At the same time, I'm not going to ignore a players talents because he didn't compete, or declare his medical records. If he had gone to the combine, he would have been required to declare his medical record, and that's probably the only reason he didn't go. As I pointed out earlier, Dunn suffered his shoulder injuries his sophmore year, and has since played two full seasons without incident. So on the surface, he would appear to be fine.
I'm not saying he should be ignored. I'm saying the league should look at this. This is just another mark against the NBA, IMHO...

1. The officiating in the playoffs is an embarrassment.
2. Potential draftees are working to circumvent the system and try and control where they end up, which is contrary to the whole idea of the draft lottery.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Can't say I like this. At best he's worried about a competition for minutes - but if a team with an IT or a Jrue or a Mudiay drafts him, they're obviously interested in him. So why worry? But at worst there IS a problem with his shoulder. Basically, if we can't get his medicals and he drops to us, I'd be really reluctant to take him. I mean, maybe we get his medicals because he sees an open PG position here. Then we have all the info and I trust Vlade to make the right call. But if a top five guy is trying to hide from #8...
Gonna disagree on this one Capt. He's played two full seasons without incident, so I doubt there's anything wrong with his shoulder, at least in the short term. I can't speak to anything that might be chronic. I do think it's a case of his wanting a chance to start. His reluctance is going to a team that already has an established young PG, and by young I think he means someone between 25 and 29 years of age. I think he doesn't want to be drafted as the PG of the future without knowing where that future is. He feels he's ready to start, or at least play significant minutes in the NBA. Now he could be wrong, but I like a player that has that kind of confidence.

I don't think hiding his medical records is going to matter to most teams, They've all seen him play, and know what he can do. I still think he'll get drafted before we choose, but if he's there, I'm taking him. He's too good to pass on. The last thing in the world this team needs is to pass on a player like Dunn, and then see him in the all star game three years from now.
 
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bajaden

Hall of Famer
I'm not saying he should be ignored. I'm saying the league should look at this. This is just another mark against the NBA, IMHO...

1. The officiating in the playoffs is an embarrassment.
2. Potential draftees are working to circumvent the system and try and control where they end up, which is contrary to the whole idea of the draft lottery.
I'm sure that if it were just up to the league, it would have been done already. However, you have to get agreement from the players association, and they don't seem to be on board. Just like the league wants to extend the entry date into the NBA to the equivalent of being a sophmore in college, which I think would be a good thing. But so far, they can't get the players association to agree to it.
 
If players/agents can keep info away from teams they don't want to sign with, then what good is the draft lottery? I think any player who registers for the draft should have to make any and all information available to ALL teams.
Is this actually happening? If so, that's certainly an unfair advantage for those receiving the info and should be addressed somehow. It's either all of nothing.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
I'm sure that if it were just up to the league, it would have been done already. However, you have to get agreement from the players association, and they don't seem to be on board. Just like the league wants to extend the entry date into the NBA to the equivalent of being a sophmore in college, which I think would be a good thing. But so far, they can't get the players association to agree to it.
I understand all that. I was merely offering a comment on the latest player to apparently attempt to work the system.

From The Sports Daily:
Normally, prospects don’t get to choose which teams they get drafted by, but Dunn’s agents might have found a way around that by avoiding certain teams. We’ll see how this strategy works out for him.
And just who is Dunn's agent?

Ty Sullivan
 
How do you figure that? (And that?)

I have a soft spot for neither of them, and I really can't favor one or the other.
My take here is that I don't see what you base such assertions on...

Knowing how draft picks eventually turn out, we should all be much more humble, IMHO. I mean - it's very close to utter guesswork.

Take your first assertion, for instance:

If we're to believe experts' opinions - mock drafts have Valentine at 12 (and Sabonis at 18). Those same mock drafts (in 2013-14) did not rank Seth Curry anywhere among the top 60. No resemblence.

If you were refering to similiarity in body measures or production - still not much supporting data. Valentine's size (6-6)* is nowhere close to Curry's (6-0), and it looks like he (Denzel) is an impressive rebounder for his size (7.5 rpg!) and his PER is through the roof (30! I believe that's higher than anyone's in the top 8 ranks, including Ingram & Simmons).

* The measurements, BTW, show that the "size-challenged" Valentine and the "size-blessed" Sabonis actually have identical wingspan (6-10.5')!! :eek:

But besides that - the "experts" themselves miss out tremedously in those mock drafts. While neither Sabonis nor Valentine were deemed "worthy of 8th spot" in the mock draft, the same was true for Kawhi Leonard (14) in his mock draft in 2011, whereas D-Will was ranked 2nd... o_O

In short - I can't even comment on your self-assured claims with the little I know. And I have a feeling that they are not that well founded.
I was NOT comparing the size of Valentine to Curry, I was projecting his overall impact on the floor. If you gave Valentine the same minutes as Curry, I doubt you get much more production. He's not an impressive player. There's no star potential there. Just a lanky dude with a decent game who will be another guy against the size, speed and strength of NBA wings. And I will be glad to have this same conversation with you after the draft, during the Summer League and next season because he's not that good. And if I am wrong I own up to it. I have a long track record of consistently right. I am probably overdue to make one mistake. :D

And it is interesting how you say the experts are wrong, and yet you want to assess the validity of my projections? So you are the expert now? I don't claim to know everything but I know talent when I see it. Sabonis is a heck of a talent. Valentine is nothing special.