We're #8...
- Thread starter parker
- Start date
Sounds like you are more interested in symbolic event than anything sustainable. I said this before but squeaking into the 8th seed to get dismantled by the Dubs, like the Rockets, held NO appeal to me. I think you are assuming that getting a whiff of the playoffs is a stepping stone to something greater. Maybe but maybe not. Look at the Suns who looked like up and comers only to take 2-3 steps back. Every year is new and players and teams are either evolving or devolving, getting better or regressing. The weight around the collective neck of the franchise is not lifted by one mediocre season, it will be lifted when there is a sustainable path and return to the glory days of C-Webb, Peja and Vlade. No matter what you want to contend, there is almost NO evidence that Boogie can be part of a group of players that can win with that level of frequency (60% to 70% win rate). His efficiency, effort and leadership are inadequate to date relative to fielding a team that can go deep into the playoffs. Accordingly, all possibilities have to remain on the table, including shipping him out of town.
Denzel Valentine is not worthy of #8 pick. He may not be much better than Seth Curry. You want a potential star at #8, not a pretty good rotation player in 1-2 years. Potential stars IMHO at #8 are Sabonis (size and athleticism tests pending), Kriss Dunn and Jaylen Brown. One of these guys will be on the board. Marquess Chriss has some star potential but its going to take him more time than this trio I think can make more immediate contribution.
I like Sabonis (good motor, smarts & rebounding) but what makes you think he has star potential?
Fun side note. Sabonis skipped the combine but according to the measurements from the Nike Skills Academy last year he's 6'10" in shoes but his wingspan is almost an inch shorter than the 6'3" Wade Baldwin.
Fun side note. Sabonis skipped the combine but according to the measurements from the Nike Skills Academy last year he's 6'10" in shoes but his wingspan is almost an inch shorter than the 6'3" Wade Baldwin.
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You win NoBonus. I haven't figured out how to quote someone else's post correctly.
I used to be with it. Then they changed what it was.
I used to be with it. Then they changed what it was.
just hit "reply"
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I'd tend to agree that Denzel Valentine is a reach at #8. I think he is a back end lottery pick at best who could be an option for teams like Orlando, Utah, Phoenix and Chicago. I guess some team could over draft him, and to an extent he could fill a need at SG, but there should be 'better' options available with our pick.
Currently most would say that Simmons and Ingram will go first and second overall. After that Dragan Bender (PF), Jaylen Brown (SG/SF), Kris Dunn (PG), Buddy Hield (SG), and Jamal Murray (PG/SG) are arguably the next best five players available. My hope is that Dunn or Hield manage to fall to us in the draft, but if any player from this group is available at #8 we could end up getting a very good player that could make an immediate impact.
I do like upside of Marquese Chriss, though he is raw and would need coaching up. He probably would start his career off on the bench, though if we don't make any additions to the PF spot in free agency and roll forwards with what we had on the roster last season, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up playing more under the right circumstances.
Another player who could be taken if we wanted to coach them up is Skal Labissiere, he has a ton of a potential and has the right size and athleticism to really develop into a very good player. Problem is he didn't have a good year in college and that has hurt his stock. But if this team is willing to take a risk on a player with high upside, then Skal is another player who we could consider. It's a risk, maybe even a bit of a reach, but the talents there.
Domantas Sabonis is certainly a player to consider, though he's not much more than an above average athlete. From what they say he needs to develop defensively, which doesn't make him an ideal fit on a team that struggles defensively, and his athleticism does somewhat restrict him on the defensive end. But he has the skills to make up for that and should be a solid player, and if he can develop his perimeter shooting that would be an added boost. Though I do prefer the other developmental options like Chriss and Labissiere over him. But I wouldn't be disappointed if we draft him.
Currently most would say that Simmons and Ingram will go first and second overall. After that Dragan Bender (PF), Jaylen Brown (SG/SF), Kris Dunn (PG), Buddy Hield (SG), and Jamal Murray (PG/SG) are arguably the next best five players available. My hope is that Dunn or Hield manage to fall to us in the draft, but if any player from this group is available at #8 we could end up getting a very good player that could make an immediate impact.
I do like upside of Marquese Chriss, though he is raw and would need coaching up. He probably would start his career off on the bench, though if we don't make any additions to the PF spot in free agency and roll forwards with what we had on the roster last season, it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up playing more under the right circumstances.
Another player who could be taken if we wanted to coach them up is Skal Labissiere, he has a ton of a potential and has the right size and athleticism to really develop into a very good player. Problem is he didn't have a good year in college and that has hurt his stock. But if this team is willing to take a risk on a player with high upside, then Skal is another player who we could consider. It's a risk, maybe even a bit of a reach, but the talents there.
Domantas Sabonis is certainly a player to consider, though he's not much more than an above average athlete. From what they say he needs to develop defensively, which doesn't make him an ideal fit on a team that struggles defensively, and his athleticism does somewhat restrict him on the defensive end. But he has the skills to make up for that and should be a solid player, and if he can develop his perimeter shooting that would be an added boost. Though I do prefer the other developmental options like Chriss and Labissiere over him. But I wouldn't be disappointed if we draft him.
Fair point, but note the difference in assist to turnovers:
C-Webb over his 7 seasons with the Kings was 4.4 assists to 2.8 turnovers. That's ratio of 1.6. Boogie over his 6 seasons with Kings is 2.7 assists to 3.4 turnovers. That's a ratio of 0.8. That's huge. That's giving away an extra possession and being less generous with the rock to the collective good, which is a 4 to 5 point swing potentially, which is difference between a 30 win season and 40 win season, or a 40 win season and a 50 win season.
This difference also reflects a guy who actively looked to draw and dish vs. a guy looking to get his most of the time. In defense of Boogie, he got better in drawing and making the right pass, but it has been an ongoing issue for him his whole career. Boogie is actually MORE talented than C-Webb ever was. He's more gifted, skilled and physically imposing. Not as explosive as C-Webb was before his knee, but the better overall player.
C-Webb TS% was lower, but that was in an era in which the three ball was less prominent and less fouls called, so their scoring efficiency is comparable relative to the decade, both being about average or less so. The difference between Boogie and C-Webb not reflected in your stats are (1) more consistent effort on both ends by C-Webb (2) better teammate with less disciplinary issues and far better leader. The sum of these variables is how I come to my conclusion I do. Boogie hasn't proved anything. He hasn't proved a damn thing.
As an aside, I think C-Webb underachieved over his career because like Boogie he was a little shot happy from 15 to 18 feet with that line drive jumper. C-Webb was a heck of a player but could have been better if he supplicated his ego and developed a softer touch.
C-Webb over his 7 seasons with the Kings was 4.4 assists to 2.8 turnovers. That's ratio of 1.6. Boogie over his 6 seasons with Kings is 2.7 assists to 3.4 turnovers. That's a ratio of 0.8. That's huge. That's giving away an extra possession and being less generous with the rock to the collective good, which is a 4 to 5 point swing potentially, which is difference between a 30 win season and 40 win season, or a 40 win season and a 50 win season.
This difference also reflects a guy who actively looked to draw and dish vs. a guy looking to get his most of the time. In defense of Boogie, he got better in drawing and making the right pass, but it has been an ongoing issue for him his whole career. Boogie is actually MORE talented than C-Webb ever was. He's more gifted, skilled and physically imposing. Not as explosive as C-Webb was before his knee, but the better overall player.
C-Webb TS% was lower, but that was in an era in which the three ball was less prominent and less fouls called, so their scoring efficiency is comparable relative to the decade, both being about average or less so. The difference between Boogie and C-Webb not reflected in your stats are (1) more consistent effort on both ends by C-Webb (2) better teammate with less disciplinary issues and far better leader. The sum of these variables is how I come to my conclusion I do. Boogie hasn't proved anything. He hasn't proved a damn thing.
As an aside, I think C-Webb underachieved over his career because like Boogie he was a little shot happy from 15 to 18 feet with that line drive jumper. C-Webb was a heck of a player but could have been better if he supplicated his ego and developed a softer touch.
True, that's why I'd consider players like Valentine, Beasley or Korkmaz (though theres a risk he may not come over this year?) if the top seven are off the board. They could potentially fill a need at SG (or develop into a starter) and would bring shooting to the team to help space the floor.
That said, the thing with Skal is that he does possess good shooting and a good range as well. So he could feasibly develop into that stretch four which is very valuable. WCS has certainly improved his all round game and I can't wait to see what our new coach does with him, but Skal does offer a stretch four with star potential. Before his lacklustre college career he was tipped as a top five pick this year. So there's certainly value to be had if we are willing to take a risk on upside.
I think at #8 we do have a number of options available to us. Fingers crossed we end up getting lucky with someone falling like the Heat did when Winslow fell or Utah when Hood fell to them.
That said, the thing with Skal is that he does possess good shooting and a good range as well. So he could feasibly develop into that stretch four which is very valuable. WCS has certainly improved his all round game and I can't wait to see what our new coach does with him, but Skal does offer a stretch four with star potential. Before his lacklustre college career he was tipped as a top five pick this year. So there's certainly value to be had if we are willing to take a risk on upside.
I think at #8 we do have a number of options available to us. Fingers crossed we end up getting lucky with someone falling like the Heat did when Winslow fell or Utah when Hood fell to them.
Here would be my course of action, if I were Vlade.
First, I would pray that one of these players falls to us at #8 and in this order:
1) Jamal Murray
2) Kris Dunn
3) Buddy Hield
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4) If none of these above guys are available, I look into either trading down to (#10-14) range and pick up an extra late 1st round pick or look for a trade for a veteran, i.e. Jeff Teague type player.
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If none of these options are available, I would draft at #8:
5) Denzel Valentine
Then, I look into buying an extra early 2nd round pick.
First, I would pray that one of these players falls to us at #8 and in this order:
1) Jamal Murray
2) Kris Dunn
3) Buddy Hield
======================
4) If none of these above guys are available, I look into either trading down to (#10-14) range and pick up an extra late 1st round pick or look for a trade for a veteran, i.e. Jeff Teague type player.
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If none of these options are available, I would draft at #8:
5) Denzel Valentine
Then, I look into buying an extra early 2nd round pick.
I seem to agree that if we don't get a guy we like we should trade down...
Phoenix holds 13 and 28
Denver holds 15 and 19
Boston holds 16 and 23 (and 5 2nd round picks including 31 and 35)
Even the Bucks might be a target, they only hold one first round pick but 10 and 36/38 could be intriguing.
A guy that can drop down imo is Dragan Bender, he is projected to go very high on most draft boards but he had a terrible season this year and he's not going to be able to do a ton of interviews and workouts since his season will probably end about 2 weeks before the draft.
Phoenix holds 13 and 28
Denver holds 15 and 19
Boston holds 16 and 23 (and 5 2nd round picks including 31 and 35)
Even the Bucks might be a target, they only hold one first round pick but 10 and 36/38 could be intriguing.
A guy that can drop down imo is Dragan Bender, he is projected to go very high on most draft boards but he had a terrible season this year and he's not going to be able to do a ton of interviews and workouts since his season will probably end about 2 weeks before the draft.
Not only will Sobonis not be a star, I doubt he'll ever be a starter. He's not a good athlete. He does have a nose for the ball, and is a very good rebounder, but he has no game more than 8 feet away from the basket. He's an average post player, and with his T Rex arms, will have and even harder time scoring in the NBA in the post. He's certainly not a shot blocker, and his lateral quickness is not good. Look, I like Sabonis, and I wish I had more praise for him. Unfortunately he was blessed with his fathers athleticism, but not his height.
I think you are right in most drafts (and I hope you are right in this one) but I don't really see a gap between the guys in 8 than late lottery...
Do you see a huge difference between PF/C like Poetl, Skal, Ellenson, Deyonte Davis and Chriss as prospects? who is better between Valentine, Luwawu and Korkmaz?
If all this guys are very close and I can get one of them along with Baldwin, Beasley, Ullis, Jackson or maybe even Sabonis- why wouldn't we?
If we can also get another 2nd rounder in the process to sweeten the deal it will be even better- my main point was that there are a lot of options for us to trade down.
Do you see a huge difference between PF/C like Poetl, Skal, Ellenson, Deyonte Davis and Chriss as prospects? who is better between Valentine, Luwawu and Korkmaz?
If all this guys are very close and I can get one of them along with Baldwin, Beasley, Ullis, Jackson or maybe even Sabonis- why wouldn't we?
If we can also get another 2nd rounder in the process to sweeten the deal it will be even better- my main point was that there are a lot of options for us to trade down.
In his youth Arvydas was a pretty good athlete for a guy his size.
And while Domatas isn't his dad's league he's a pretty good passer for a big himself. But I agree with you, I don't see him as a stud. On the NBA level I tend to think he'll be a rotation big that provides energy and rebounding. A Madsen or Hansborough type though I think he'll be a significantly better player than Madsen.
Sabonis was a guy that didn't jump out at me during games. In fact I was generally surprised when I saw his final stats because I didn't think he had as many points or rebounds as he ended up with.
And while Domatas isn't his dad's league he's a pretty good passer for a big himself. But I agree with you, I don't see him as a stud. On the NBA level I tend to think he'll be a rotation big that provides energy and rebounding. A Madsen or Hansborough type though I think he'll be a significantly better player than Madsen.
Sabonis was a guy that didn't jump out at me during games. In fact I was generally surprised when I saw his final stats because I didn't think he had as many points or rebounds as he ended up with.
Trading down should be an option the Vlade keeps in his back pocket.
He needs to hold onto #8 until we knows that our top targets are not available.
Then and only then do you trade down.
I think Boston (I would demand the 16, 23 and 31 for #8) and Denver would be the most likely trade partners.
Phoenix is in rebuild and want bodies, so I doubt they trade up.
He needs to hold onto #8 until we knows that our top targets are not available.
Then and only then do you trade down.
I think Boston (I would demand the 16, 23 and 31 for #8) and Denver would be the most likely trade partners.
Phoenix is in rebuild and want bodies, so I doubt they trade up.
You're entitled to your opinion. I was high on Steven Adams during his Pitt days and wanted the Kings to draft him (and thought they would before Ben fell). Sabonis is a better player than Adams was in college. Its not even close. And I liked Adams a lot! The thing I find difficult to gauge is his size and athleticism (being fooled once by Thomas Robinson who was allegedly 6'10" before he showed up to training camp 6'8" ) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.
) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.His TS% was 3rd best in NCAA, his rebound rate was 5th best in NCAA. For a guy just turning 20, he has great hands, great footwork, great post moves with high release point. And I don't mean good, I mean great! If his size and athleticism checks out (legit 6'10 and 250 with decent speed and quickness), we should take him and send Boogie to Boston.
You're entitled to your opinion. I was high on Steven Adams during his Pitt days and wanted the Kings to draft him (and thought they would before Ben fell). Sabonis is a better player than Adams was in college. Its not even close. And I liked Adams a lot! The thing I find difficult to gauge is his size and athleticism (being fooled once by Thomas Robinson who was allegedly 6'10" before he showed up to training camp 6'8" ) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.
) so Sabonis vitals and pre-draft performance will dictate a lot. Not sure why he skipped out on Chicago. Could be a red flag.
He was an effective scorer in college and a good rebounder (and he was great against Poetl who has NBA size and athleticism)- maybe I'm way off the mark but I can see some teams looking at him as poor-man's Kevin Love, Love was 6' 9.5 with 6' 11.25 wingspan (although I think he's a better athelete) and their stat lines are really similar:
Love: 17.5 points, 10.6 rebounds (3.6 off), 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.4 blocks with 2 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.1 2pt%, 35.4 3pt% (2.1 attempts), 76.7 FT% (6.6 attempts).
Sabonis: 17.5 points, 11.8 rebounds (3 off), 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.9 blocks with 2.6 TO's.
Shooting percentages: 61.5 2pt%, 35.7 3pt% (0.4 attempts), 76.8 FT% (5.5 attempts).
That's eerily similar, their percentages from all places are practically the same, they scored the same amount of points and almost the same amount of assists and steals.
There are differences of course- Love is the better shot blocker, has less turnovers, more offensive rebounds and gets to the line more (though both are doing very well) while Sabonis leads in total rebounds.
Of course Sabonis rarely shoot the 3, but when he does he has a decent percentage and he is a good FT shooter.
In any case it was too similar for me to not point it out
.I disagree with the comparison... Valentine is three inches taller than Seth with a wingspan six inches longer. He's a far better rebounder and passer as well. The knock on him is his lack of athleticism preventing him from playing good defense in the NBA... Same thing was said about klay thompson and draymond green, two guys I think he compares favorably to in different ways. I want us to take Valentine at eight precisely because I feel he has the best chance of anybody in this draft outside of the top two picks of being an all star someday. The warriors were built on draft picks with similar scouting reports... High basketball iq, skilled, excellent shooter, lacking elite athleticism.
woof.
I can't tell what's worse here -
* the incorrect use of statistics (2.4 possessions don't equal 4 to 5 points in the real world, unless you are seriously arguing that the only possessions that count against Boogie are the ones that the other teams scores with)
* or the brazenly-simplistic use of them (try using the per-36 minute stats, and include charges taken and factor in the teammates Webb was passing to vs Boogie, and Webber is even more outmatched by Boogie last year)
* or the blatant ignoring of brick's clear point (hint - he just compared Boogie quite favorably to The Best Player in Sac Kings history, and you are nitpicking and exaggerating one stat).
I can't tell what's worse here -
* the incorrect use of statistics (2.4 possessions don't equal 4 to 5 points in the real world, unless you are seriously arguing that the only possessions that count against Boogie are the ones that the other teams scores with)
* or the brazenly-simplistic use of them (try using the per-36 minute stats, and include charges taken and factor in the teammates Webb was passing to vs Boogie, and Webber is even more outmatched by Boogie last year)
* or the blatant ignoring of brick's clear point (hint - he just compared Boogie quite favorably to The Best Player in Sac Kings history, and you are nitpicking and exaggerating one stat).