Livinthedream
All-Star
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Welcome Davion Mitchell
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
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The college 3 isn't the NBA 3, and the defenders DM faced at Baylor aren't the ones he'll face with Sacramento. It's pretty unlikely that he'll shoot 45% from 3 in his rookie year.
But what makes 63/141 on 3s (44.7%) a "mirage"? What makes your 30% expectation more reasonable than, say, 35%?
I'm genuinely curious.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
On the flip side, NBA spacing isn't as tight as it is in college hoops and he'll probably have many more seams to attack as long as teams don't just completely lay off his shot.
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I totally enjoy Mike Schmitz player interviews and game breakdowns.
I watched a lot of them but not on Mitchell as I had no reason to think him our pick. I thought Mitchell could go before or after 9 but not to Sac.
Anyways, loved this interview, more respect for Mitchell now and in a cautious way for Monte too by going unconventional and picking who he believed BPA.
Jkbiker
Starter
If playing a 3 guard lineup, I would suggest Mitchell at the 2 and Hali at the 3
since Hali is tall enough to play SF
Fox Wright Ramsey
Mitchell Davis James
Hali Buddy Woodard
Barnes Bagley Metu
Holmes Queta Jones
Buddy and Bagley can both play off the Bench until traded
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His FT%. He shot under 70% from the line all 3 years in college. I don't know how many smaller guards have done that and have been good shooters in the NBA but I'd say the list is very short. Rondo is one player I can think of but it took him what, 10 years to become an average 3 point shooter?
If his FT% was 75 or 80% I'd say he's just a guy who took a couple years to dial his shot in but it's his efficiency at the line that makes me think he's going to be a poor shooter.
There are a lot of cases of guys having mirage type 3pt years in college. I believe Derrick Williams shot over 50% from 3 in college and that probably had a lot to do with him getting picked 1st.
In the articles and interviews I’ve read on Davion, he’s been studying Donovan Mitchell and Lillard and CP, but he spent a lot of time mastering what Don Mitchell does with his feet and the shiftiness. The hesitation dribble is fairly lethal.
Former NBA player Don McLean is on record as saying he’s never had anyone as dedicated and driven as Donovan Mitchell as far as ability and desire and drive to succeed…….until Davion Mitchell came along. I don’t think what Davion did in his senior year is an aberration or mirage. I don’t know about 45% from 3 but I think he’s the whole package.
An area he will need to improve is his floater game as his % on those types of shots was not good.
NewArena
All-Star
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
His shooting charts from last season are pretty much the platonic ideal for modern basketball: Nothing but threes and shots at the rim.
I don't know if he'll become a Donovan-level shooter (not that Donovan is particularly accurate from the perimeter himself) but any failure to shoot on Davion's part certainly wouldn't come from a lack of effort.
jcassio
Starter
I'm not even a HB fan, but this is just plain BS. "Most Kings fans despised"? What universe do you live in?
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I don't know about most but there was a vocal portion of the Kings fanbase hating on the trade, with some advocating a trade for Andrew Wiggins (LOL until this last year) or Otto Porter (LOL) instead.
Padrino
All-Star
The one where the acquisition was derided on the basis of his contract and the fact that he wasn't considered a "winning player."
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Not sure how people could even be mad about that at the time considering Harrison was expiring AND the Kings literally gave up nothing (Z-Bo never played a game again and Justin Jackson is barely in the league but a champion) for him.
I see. If that's the only basis for your guess you are GREATLY overstating the predictive power of free throw percentage. And, yes, Derrick Williams shot almost 60% from 3 in his sophomore year at AZ - on 1.9 attempts/game, vs. 4.7/game for Mitchell.
W/few exceptions, NBA players shoot worse from 3 in their rookie seasons than they did in their final college seasons. But I'll be very surprised if DM drops to 30%. We'll see!
Padrino
All-Star
Well, I'm thinking more about the fact that many were not a fan of the fact that we were going to have to pay him a bunch of money to keep him.
That wasn't a majority opinion to my recollection. No matter what the move, there will be a vocal minority, at the least, who will hate it. But it felt to me like a good majority were in big favor of the acquisition.
Jkbiker
Starter
The one where most Kings fans were amazed we were able to get a quality starting SF for JJ?
Jkbiker
Starter
Maybe a 3 guard lineup could work if other team has a smaller SF
But As long as you trade Buddy, I still think long term Fox, Hali and Mitchell Would be a very successful 3 guard Rotation
Keep Wright or TD as insurance
Fox,Hali,Mitchell at 1 and 2
Barnes (Buddy for SF player)
Bagley,Metu
Holmes, Queta
That is a good 9 man rotation
Nobody really playing out of position
Just a Buddy Trade away from a balanced roster
But As long as you trade Buddy, I still think long term Fox, Hali and Mitchell Would be a very successful 3 guard Rotation
Keep Wright or TD as insurance
Fox,Hali,Mitchell at 1 and 2
Barnes (Buddy for SF player)
Bagley,Metu
Holmes, Queta
That is a good 9 man rotation
Nobody really playing out of position
Just a Buddy Trade away from a balanced roster
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SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
He likely has the team to himself there though. The question is what happens when that isn't the case. I don't think anyone has or is doubting his potential and abilities.
I could be and I could definitely be swayed if anyone was able to provide me with examples of good 3 point shooting guards that shoot free throws as poorly as Mitchell. It's difficult to find NBA rotational guards that shoot that low at the line in general. Picking good 3 point shooters out of that short list is going to be a task.
I hope I'm wrong and he's a solid outside shooter but I just think the data so far says otherwise. I also won't solely judge him on his rookie year percentages but if he does shoot poorly his rookie year, that's just more data that backs up his lack of shooting over the one outlier statistic on his stat sheet.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Dude, almost everything I've seen is "Great pick" "but what are they doing?" "how does he fit" "oh well, don't worry about that he's a great player!"
Uh, Kings fans understand that need to worry better than anyone. It's happened time and time again. Just recently with Bogdan and Buddy. LOL.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
It's all based on usage but he's pretty much developed. 23, college champion. Haliburton has some physical upside left to go, but this is basically a core ready now and not likely to sprout wings they didn't already have.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
The logjam just got a little less jammed though. Once Buddy's gone, you've got 96 minutes to split between Fox, Hali, and Davion plus any extra minutes running a three guard lineup. If TD gets re-signed, he'll probably see some minutes at 3 like he was getting at the end of last season but the Wright move clears up a lot of that confusion if but temporarily.
Being honest, I thought most of us liked the move and were more alarmed with how Joerger decided to use him.
Ultimately, I think we all now agree he works best as a 4, but it also seemed pretty dang clear that the move was made in a way that left a huge hole at the 3 spot, and was meant to move Bagley into the starting 5.
This is a large part of the reason if even if I think Joerger was a good coach (I waffle on this, tbh) he needed to go because he was basically insubordinate after the Bagley pick came in.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
He can most certainly guard bigger players with the ball. He's a little like Mugsy Bogues back in the day where he got so far under guys every dribble was up for grabs.
Walton is Walton, but from the way Monte phrased that comment about how he's already talked about guard lineups with Luke makes me think Luke is just being a good company man in some ways last year. That would make sense in how nobody, anywhere thought the Kings should hang onto Luke. Well, he takes direction from all those analytics genius's. Who apparently don't look at net rating as a part of their equation. Monte talked about basic production when prodded during that presser about analytics. Like? He does know the college game is totally different when it comes to shot blocking right? College has no 3 second rule Monte? The floor is tighter spacing wise? Right?
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
And if it's true that they think Davion can guard 4 positions then him getting a chance will help those minutes tick up. Bottom line though, we've had this discussion every year Vlade went in and out of free agency like someone going into a grocery store looking to feed a family of 3 and coming out with enough groceries to feed a small village. "It'll be fine!" Bogdan and Buddy will be fine. Dedmon will be OK. Hill will get plenty of minutes. Yeah, no, pretty much worked out exactly as expected if the team is unwilling to go all in playing a player out of their natural position. 3 players, 2 positions. Someone is either a backup 24 mpg type, or they platoon everyone down so that that star production goes bye bye along with it's coinciding value. NBA front offices act like this is all rocket science and in turn over complicate this into infinity on their way to failure. And TD getting minutes at the 3 wasn't a good thing last year, it was a mismatch. The 4 guard lineup tricked Carlisle that one time though. Buddy was the one that didn't look terrible at the 3. In fact, the best net rating combo was Fox/Haliburton/Buddy/Barnes/Holmes. Extracting two of the key components of one of the only things that did work is sketchy.
Jkbiker
Starter
not me, I have always felt Barnes scores better and can defend better against smaller 3's
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
In the modern NBA, these positions have largely become interchangeable so it doesn't really seem to matter as long as the other 3 or 4 is big or quick enough to cover the guy Barnes can't.
Right - I guess I should clarify that his position is whatever, but I think we all thought Fox-Buddy-Bogi would split time between two positions and Barnes, Bjelica, Bagley and WCS would be our front court, old basketball thinking. Had we known the way Joerger would play Barnes we could have kept Shump - who appeared to be moved out of consideration he was entering a contract year and would appear to have been frozen out of the lineup with Barnes arrival. Shump's departure definitely had a huge effect as the wheels fell off.
