Trading Our Cap Space

[Capt. Factorial]

#6 or 7 Is the only trade that actually gives the Kings a shot at an Alpha Scorer.

Agreed.

I would do it, if all we had to do was absorb Wiggins contract with ZBo or Shumpert going out. I might even include WCS, if the Twolves sends back a pick.

Wiggins is a legit 20 ppg scorer in the league. Jimmy Butler (Coach Thibs favorite) took a lot of Wiggins shots away this past year and stunted his scoring potential. Wiggins is a legit #1 or #2 scorer. He is an overpay at $29 mil, but who else could the Kings get in Free Agency next year or in a trade with his firepower? Nobody really.

I think this is a key to why we might consider taking a wild chance like this (assuming it were on the table). We have very little chance outside of the draft to land a franchise-level player, and if the current crop of players have ANY chance of being a championship core then we have no draft stock left (as our 2019 pick is gone and, again, if the core is good enough our 2020 pick won't be lotto anyway). Maybe it's really time to roll the dice on Fox/Bogdan/Hield/Bagley/Giles and assume they really are the core we are looking for. If so, the obvious hole is at the SF. How do we fill it without a top draft pick and without being a free-agent destination, and without trading away any of the core?

Buy low. That's how. Buy low on a guy who was a #1 overall pick and who, if you squint, might develop to be a top-20 player in the league. It won't necessarily be fun, but we can survive his contract. The only thing is, will he pan out? If he will, we should jump after him. I just don't know if he will.

 

[Kingster]

I don't like most of these. Let me put down what I would consider a summary of the trades, leaving out players I think are truly irrelevant salary dumps:

6) Kings get: Wiggins, no more Z-bo
Kings lose: Have to pay Wiggins $146M
This is the Russian Roulette of trades. We need a SF. Wiggins is 23, under (expensive) control for 5 years, and a former #1 overall pick that plays SF. But he hasn't been good. If our talent evaluators can come back and say, "Look, the kid has got what it takes, but he's been misused in Minny. He fits the system we want to put together anyway, and we can seriously build with him as a piece, and I promise he'll look like a top-5 pick within a year or two", then pull that trigger and hope the chamber is empty. Otherwise, pass. You just can't lock up a quarter of your salary cap for five years on a guy unless he's the real deal. My inclination would be to pass, but barring one of the other trades stumbling into a pick that hits the lottery, it's really the only deal that has a chance of being a championship-delivering deal. It just has a huge chance to bury the franchise as well.

So, to sum up: The only deals I would even look at in this bunch are #2 and #6. #2 is kind of an overpay on Layman in trying to stopgap SF for a few years, with a pick. It's not a disaster, but I don't think it would really move any needles in the end. #6 is a true high-risk, high-reward, high-catastrophe bargain. If we really truly think that reward outweighs catastrophe, then I'm intrigued (but reward probably doesn't outweigh catastrophe).

Capt., you're a smart salary cap/FA kind of guy. How would you structure a better deal for Wiggins so that you would mitigate the risk? It seems like this is a red/black roulette situation with that kind of a deal. How do you make the odds better than 50-50 in your favor?

 

[Sactown ExPat]

I’ve talked myself into Wiggins. I don’t think it will take more than a salary dump. Who else is trading for him? We’re the only potential buyers, and I think things are already caustic enough for Wiggins with Thibs and Butler that Thibs would just dump him. This would be VERY reminiscent of our Webber acquisition. Sacramento has a way of turning careers around.

Also, we would have pretty great intel. You know who is familiar with the inner workings of the TWolves locker room and coaching staff? Bjelica. And Bjelica knows exactly what Vlade is looking for in a player.

I think Wiggins is a guy who could turn it around at his next destination if shown the trust to carry a scoring load and challenged to guard the other team’s top wing.

 

[burekijogurt]

Wiggings 17.7 on 15.9 attempts.
Buddy 13.5 on 11.7 attempts.
Bogdan 11.8 on 9.9 attempts.

Instead of giving Wiggins 100+million and Minnesotta one of Buddy/Bogdan just give Buddy/Bogdan the extra shot attempts and they will outscore Wiggins. Besides, as Wiggins starts chucking up shot after shot while better shooters are standing open, sactowndog is going to have an aneurysm..

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Capt., you're a smart salary cap/FA kind of guy. How would you structure a better deal for Wiggins so that you would mitigate the risk? It seems like this is a red/black roulette situation with that kind of a deal. How do you make the odds better than 50-50 in your favor?

Well, the trade as proposed was Z-bo and McLemore for Wiggins straight up. Obviously I have no idea whether Minnesota would put this sort of deal on the table or not. I think this may be a more interesting deal from the Minnesota side than it is from the Sacramento side. From the Minnesota side, they're looking at signing Towns to a max extension, and having to resign Butler and Teague potentially next year. If they want to do all that, they'll be capped out and approaching the tax with only 8 players starting next year. Now, if they're willing to let Teague go, or somehow decide to go with Wiggins instead of Butler it's pretty moot, but otherwise they'll definitely want to get rid of Wiggins and the only question is what they're willing to give up to get out from under his contract.

From our side, we don't really have ANY bad contracts. Obviously Z-bo and Shumpert are taking up almost $23M that we don't want to spend on them, but they're only under contract this year. Starting next year we literally have nobody under contract that we aren't interested in having under contract as it stands right now. The biggest dump-back we can plausibly do would be something like Z-bo + Shumpert + McLemore - but I just don't see additionally dumping Shumpert's contract for this year as moving the needle that much. He's gone after this year anyway and we're probably off the FA market at this point so his $11M is really a drop in the bucket compared to Wiggins' $146M. The only thing we can really do to make a trade for Wiggins more palatable to us would appear to be to wrest some draft compensation out of them. But I don't think they're that desperate, not yet.

In fact, I'd say that odds are that they're not really ready to pull the trigger on a Wiggins trade just yet, so they'd have to see something better coming back than the usual salary dump fare. In that case, if we would have to sweeten the pot and not them, then I don't really see how to make the odds move in our favor.

In the end, this is the type of trade where talent evaluation is utterly crucial. Some deals you look at are by-the-numbers deals, and those are pretty easy to gauge whether it's a good value or not. Here, if Wiggins turns into a perennial All-Star, it's a great deal. If he continues on his current career arc, it's an unmitigated disaster. And there's no way that the roulette on the deal falls on anything other than the talent evaluation. There's just no way to mitigate against a $146M flop.

 

[Kingster]

Well, the trade as proposed was Z-bo and McLemore for Wiggins straight up. Obviously I have no idea whether Minnesota would put this sort of deal on the table or not. I think this may be a more interesting deal from the Minnesota side than it is from the Sacramento side. From the Minnesota side, they're looking at signing Towns to a max extension, and having to resign Butler and Teague potentially next year. If they want to do all that, they'll be capped out and approaching the tax with only 8 players starting next year. Now, if they're willing to let Teague go, or somehow decide to go with Wiggins instead of Butler it's pretty moot, but otherwise they'll definitely want to get rid of Wiggins and the only question is what they're willing to give up to get out from under his contract.

From our side, we don't really have ANY bad contracts. Obviously Z-bo and Shumpert are taking up almost $23M that we don't want to spend on them, but they're only under contract this year. Starting next year we literally have nobody under contract that we aren't interested in having under contract as it stands right now. The biggest dump-back we can plausibly do would be something like Z-bo + Shumpert + McLemore - but I just don't see additionally dumping Shumpert's contract for this year as moving the needle that much. He's gone after this year anyway and we're probably off the FA market at this point so his $11M is really a drop in the bucket compared to Wiggins' $146M. The only thing we can really do to make a trade for Wiggins more palatable to us would appear to be to wrest some draft compensation out of them. But I don't think they're that desperate, not yet.

In fact, I'd say that odds are that they're not really ready to pull the trigger on a Wiggins trade just yet, so they'd have to see something better coming back than the usual salary dump fare. In that case, if we would have to sweeten the pot and not them, then I don't really see how to make the odds move in our favor.

In the end, this is the type of trade where talent evaluation is utterly crucial. Some deals you look at are by-the-numbers deals, and those are pretty easy to gauge whether it's a good value or not. Here, if Wiggins turns into a perennial All-Star, it's a great deal. If he continues on his current career arc, it's an unmitigated disaster. And there's no way that the roulette on the deal falls on anything other than the talent evaluation. There's just no way to mitigate against a $146M flop.

This is a tough one. Normally, the "seller" knows more about the commodity, so the Wolves if they choose to trade him would be trading him for good reason. But then sometimes a trade can really "wake up" the player to take his play to a higher level. To my mind, Wiggins has extraordinary talent. I really think he could be something like a Leonard, an outstanding two-way player, if he put his mind to it. But then I've seen him play totally going through the motions like he did at times against the Kings last year. You would really have to know what is between his ears to feel comfortable on taking on that kind of liability. This seems to have more to do with a psych evaluation than a talent evaluation.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I really think he could be something like a Leonard, an outstanding two-way player, if he put his mind to it. But then I've seen him play totally going through the motions like he did at times against the Kings last year. You would really have to know what is between his ears to feel comfortable on taking on that kind of liability. This seems to have more to do with a psych evaluation than a talent evaluation.

That's fair enough - by talking about evaluating talent I didn't intend to exclude the mental side of talent, I rather was excluding the paper-pushing side of things. There's no paper-pushing that could make this trade OK. It's all about on-court results, specifically requiring improvement (perhaps vast improvement) in on-court results. If that could come from working harder or if it could come from being in a different mental place, I don't think is too important.

 

[AleksandarN]

I have been wanting to trade for Wiggins for a while now. I would love a deal like JJ, WCS and Skal for Wiggins

 

[ESP47]

Just food for thought. During Wiggins "best" year the year before last where he scored 23.6ppg....he had nearly the same impact that Arron Afflalo had for us that same year. I think we all remember how awful AA was that year. On the Kings squad, only BMac was worse than Wiggins that year.

He has never been ranked better than a theoretical replacement player. In other words, you lose more basketball games when you add Wiggins to your squad. Basically if the Kings were expected to win 30 games this year and they added Hezonja, they would probably win 30-31 games. If they added Wiggins, they would drop from 30 wins to 28 or 29 wins and be on the hook for about $150mil for the next 5 years. Basically paying $30mil a year to lose an extra couple games. At best, he improves to the point where he helps them win 1 extra game at some point in the future. In the end they'd more than likely be paying $150mil to win no extra games for the next 5 years. I can't think of a bigger waste of money and a worse way to stay in mediocrity than to acquire Wiggins.

 

[The_Jamal]

I have been wanting to trade for Wiggins for a while now. I would love a deal like JJ, WCS and Skal for Wiggins

People aren't really understanding how much Wiggins can flat out cripple this franchise for the next half-decade. We'd be taking a MAJOR leap of faith that he turns it on and becomes the all-star everyone thought he'd be.

He's just flat out bad honestly. There's nothing in his stat profile from his first 4 years that show me he's even going to be a good player in this league, much less a star. He's regressed over the last 2 seasons. And he's making 146 mil over the next 5 years. That contract 100% costs us at least one of Bogdan or Buddy (possibly both?) down the line, and ruins our money to retain WCS or Skal if we wanted to. Fox/Giles/Bagley would probably be ok since they're still so far from their extensions but still.

I wouldn't flip them a single young asset and I'd want at least 1 first rounder back (ask for 2, maybe accept 1). If they don't like it, then cool, have fun paying a bad player an insane amount of money and losing Jimmy Butler in the process. Even then, I probably just go ahead and pass. We aren't starving for young talent so much where we have to take on such a high probability bust.

 

[AleksandarN]

People aren't really understanding how much Wiggins can flat out cripple this franchise for the next half-decade. We'd be taking a MAJOR leap of faith that he turns it on and becomes the all-star everyone thought he'd be.

He's just flat out bad honestly. There's nothing in his stat profile from his first 4 years that show me he's even going to be a good player in this league, much less a star. He's regressed over the last 2 seasons. And he's making 146 mil over the next 5 years. That contract 100% costs us at least one of Bogdan or Buddy (possibly both?) down the line, and ruins our money to retain WCS or Skal if we wanted to. Fox/Giles/Bagley would probably be ok since they're still so far from their extensions but still.

I wouldn't flip them a single young asset and I'd want at least 1 first rounder back (ask for 2, maybe accept 1). If they don't like it, then cool, have fun paying a bad player an insane amount of money and losing Jimmy Butler in the process. Even then, I probably just go ahead and pass. We aren't starving for young talent so much where we have to take on such a high probability bust.

How does that cost us Bogdan or Buddy?

 

[The_Jamal]

How does that cost us Bogdan or Buddy?

Because you have to make cuts somewhere when a guy is going to be making $29.2 mil in 2 years; when Bogdan and Buddy are FA eligible.

 

[AleksandarN]

Because you have to make cuts somewhere when a guy is going to be making $29.2 mil in 2 years; when Bogdan and Buddy are FA eligible.

After trading for him what cuts in two years we have to make? Explain it to me I don't get it

 

[AleksandarN]

Given how Vlade managed our caproom we have a lot of flexibility to accommodate a trade like this where it doesn't impede us going forward. Hence the risk is more mitigated .

 

[CelticsFan]

I have been wanting to trade for Wiggins for a while now. I would love a deal like JJ, WCS and Skal for Wiggins

I don't get these Wiggins trades people are proposing. The kid is 23 years old, why would the Wolves who are competing for a high end playoff spot trade a 23 year old kid for a bunch of spare parts? How does that help them win this season? There was talk at one point about a DeRozen swap which would make sense. Why would the Wolves need the cap space this year? Who are they targeting to sign? Don't get me wrong I could see them trading him but not for spare parts, more for someone that can help them win today.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't get these Wiggins trades people are proposing. The kid is 23 years old, why would the Wolves who are competing for a high end playoff spot trade a 23 year old kid for a bunch of spare parts? How does that help them win this season? There was talk at one point about a DeRozen swap which would make sense. Why would the Wolves need the cap space this year? Who are they targeting to sign? Don't get me wrong I could see them trading him but not for spare parts, more for someone that can help them win today.

The rumors are that there is a lot of tension between Wiggins, KAT and Butler and that Wiggins hasn't lived up to his contract so he's movable.

But yeah, I don't see it just being a salary dump, they're going to want a replacement level talent.

 

[Jkbiker]

I think it comes down to timing. If Minny thinks it is critical to salary dump Wiggins now or by Feb We have the cap and the enders to do it.
but I suppose other teams could still make a trade if they could send 25 mil in salary to match. Could be hard to do, but if a team had two enders to add up would Minny really care who? We could be that easy solution if things got ugly between KAT,Butler,Wiggins between training camp and Feb.

Of course after this year there will be a lot of teams with cap, a lot of players coming off 1 yr deals, and a lot of possible trades/Dumps would be available. then we would have to offer deals with good players and get no picks

 

[Jkbiker]

The other thing from Minny's side is if Butler is serious about being UFA next year to find a team with Kyrie
Minny needs to keep Wiggins , get KAT to sign extension and maybe trade Butler?

nightmare senario , trade Wiggins now to appease Butler, KAT doesnt sign Extension, Butler leaves to play with Kyrie.
Without some sort of commitment from Butler , not sure Minny would dump Wiggins

 

[Iced Espresso]

Seven Trades that Utilize the Kings Remaining Cap Space

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nb...lize-the-kings-remaining-cap-space/ar-BBL386a

Which one? Hmmmm discuss?

I like the portland #1 trade

Trade one Mahinmi for WCS + we get 2019 first, and a second in 2022 & 2023 . No way I'm waiving Davis. I'd trade Davis for a top 55 protected before I just ate his salary. No way I'm giving up a prospect like WCS and giving cap relief. I'd tell them to take their choice of Randolph or KK.

Portland trade one

Decline, not absorbing salary and sending out a better prospect for a lesser one and a first.

Portland trade 2

Are you kidding me? Kosta out for bad multi year loot and I have to give up two seconds to get a first? Hang up phone.

Miami trade

Atrocious, get an albatross who will opt in next year at positions of strength and have to include a second to get a first?

Nope

Trade for Harkless for absorbing Leonard and including WCS, no thanks

Wiggins? By the end of his contract we'd be paying him like 33 million per. Nope

No don't think I'll take any of those.

A simple rule about absorbing bad money.

You don't send out a prospect or pick for the priveliage of someone else dumping money. Even for a pick upgrade.

 

[Kingster]

The other thing from Minny's side is if Butler is serious about being UFA next year to find a team with Kyrie
Minny needs to keep Wiggins , get KAT to sign extension and maybe trade Butler?

nightmare senario , trade Wiggins now to appease Butler, KAT doesnt sign Extension, Butler leaves to play with Kyrie.
Without some sort of commitment from Butler , not sure Minny would dump Wiggins

Your post highlights for me that the Wolves success or lack thereof next year is going to be crucial to whether these fractures become larger or smaller. There seems to be considerable pressure on this franchise, despite the fact that they currently have some good pieces in place.

 

[AleksandarN]

The rumors are that there is a lot of tension between Wiggins, KAT and Butler and that Wiggins hasn't lived up to his contract so he's movable.

But yeah, I don't see it just being a salary dump, they're going to want a replacement level talent.

That’s why I suggested three youth pieces for wiggins. It wouldn’t be just a cap dump. They get value in return

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That’s why I suggested three youth pieces for wiggins. It wouldn’t be just a cap dump. They get value in return

I mean they get three players on rookie contracts none of whom are "value". Honestly I think if we offered one of Bogs/Buddy plus pick of WCS/Skal, they hang up laughing.

 

[AleksandarN]

I mean they get three players on rookie contracts none of whom are "value". Honestly I think if we offered one of Bogs/Buddy plus pick of WCS/Skal, they hang up laughing.

I don't think so. I think that would be too much. WCS is an attractive peace for them. plus they get a huge trade exemption as well

 

[Jkbiker]

So after Clint signing they are 13 mil over lux cap. with a 2.4 vet min deal for Melo they are 15.4M over
Tax on the 13 over is 23.8 mil, maybe 28.2 with Melo

We stretch KK
Rockets trade Ryan 20.421 Mil 2 future 1sts unprotected for Ben 5.460

They Save 15 sal this yr,Plus 28.2 Tax, Plus 21.264 Next year = 64M total saved

We spend up to cap this yr
Zbo,Shump come off books next yr22.7m
Ryan 21M following year

Fox,Yogi,Mason
Bogi,Buddy,Shump
Beli,JJ
Bagley, Skal, Ryan,Zbo
Wcs,Giles,Davis

2019 drop shump,Zbo
add 1 FA, 1st pick

 

[Iced Espresso]

So after Clint signing they are 13 mil over lux cap. with a 2.4 vet min deal for Melo they are 15.4M over
Tax on the 13 over is 23.8 mil, maybe 28.2 with Melo

We stretch KK
Rockets trade Ryan 20.421 Mil 2 future 1sts unprotected for Ben 5.460

They Save 15 sal this yr,Plus 28.2 Tax, Plus 21.264 Next year = 64M total saved

We spend up to cap this yr
Zbo,Shump come off books next yr22.7m
Ryan 21M following year

Fox,Yogi,Mason
Bogi,Buddy,Shump
Beli,JJ
Bagley, Skal, Ryan,Zbo
Wcs,Giles,Davis

2019 drop shump,Zbo
add 1 FA, 1st pick

I doubt Houston wants to trade 2 future firsts. They'll just pay the tax this year and look to move Ryno next off season or draft day for a pick if someone wants him.

 

[Jkbiker]

I doubt Houston wants to trade 2 future firsts. They'll just pay the tax this year and look to move Ryno next off season or draft day for a pick if someone wants him.

Hey its only 139m salary and 28m Tax total 167M vs 124m
Whats 43m extra and if you figure similar # for next yr sal and tax Prob 86 mil over two years All for Ryan who does not play much and 2 high 1st picks, glad Im not payin the bills over there

Sal/tax totals
OKC 240M, GSW 195M,Rockets 167M
but Rockets have deadweight salary OKC and GSW does not

I guess top 3 teams in West all have deep pockets

Kings $90M, hey at least tickets wont go up much

 

[Iced Espresso]

Hey its only 139m salary and 28m Tax total 167M vs 124m
Whats 43m extra and if you figure similar # for next yr sal and tax Prob 86 mil over two years All for Ryan who does not play much and 2 high 1st picks, glad Im not payin the bills over there

Sal/tax totals
OKC 240M, GSW 195M,Rockets 167M
but Rockets have deadweight salary OKC and GSW does not

I guess top 3 teams in West all have deep pockets

Kings $90M, hey at least tickets wont go up much

If they could reinvest Ryno's loot it would be easier. Let's say they tried to keep Ariza, but they probably knew how much it would cost to offload Anderson without a lot of salary in. So no point in paying the costs to trade him.

I'm sure they will be offering a 2020 first to everyone with cap space next year though.

Same with the Lakers & Deng, Same thing with Washington and Mahinmi.

We waited too long.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Denver was our chance, we should of jumped on it, first this year from them, first next year for one of the above.

 

[Jkbiker]

If they could reinvest Ryno's loot it would be easier. Let's say they tried to keep Ariza, but they probably knew how much it would cost to offload Anderson without a lot of salary in. So no point in paying the costs to trade him.

I'm sure they will be offering a 2020 first to everyone with cap space next year though.

Same with the Lakers & Deng, Same thing with Washington and Mahinmi.

We waited too long.

So what is the difference to save 42m for next year they offer a 1st rd pick vs 2 years saving of 84M for 2 picks

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Low first rounders in a terrible draft for $42M of Ryan Anderson is a colossally bad idea. Sit tight, wait for Beal/Jaylen Brown/McCollum to shake loose.