Trade Bagley?
- Thread starter Sac4cwebb
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Regardless of what my original opinion of a player was, I always try and put on my objectivity hat when I reappraise him a few years later. So with that said, I really liked Bagley coming out of college, and I believe I said prior to that draft, that I would be happy with any of three players, Bagley, Doncic, and Jaren Jackson. Of course it's easy to sit here now and clearly see that Doncic, until one of the other two prove otherwise, was the best player of that threesome.
I actually watched Doncic play a lot in the European league, and there's no doubt he was a star there, but nothing he did, made me believe he would be as good as he turned out to be. As a matter of fact, I felt he wasn't in the best shape he needed to be in, and that his 3pt shot was very inconsistent. But hey, kudo's to him. He appears to be the real deal.
The general consensus on Bagley seems to be that yes, so far he hasn't lived up to being the 2nd pick in the draft, but he is improving, if slowly.
Bagley year one: 25 mpg - 14.9 ppg - 50.4% fgp - 31.3% 3pp - 69.1% ftp - 7.6 rpg - 1.0 apg - 0.5 stl's - 1.0 Blk's
Bagley year three: 25 mpg - 13.9 ppg - 50.2% fgp - 35.4% 3pp - 56.0% ftp - 7.4 rpt - 0.9 apg - 0.5 stl's - 0.5 Blk's
The stat line makes the argument of his improvement a little tough. Yes, he has improved his three point shot, and I think his on the ball defense, especially away from the basket has improved. But his off the ball defense is still terrible at times. His free throw shooting has regressed. In short, it's not the kind of jump your looking for.
Of course the counter argument is that his injuries have slowed his development, and that's a fair argument. But when your evaluating a players worth to the team, his ability to put on a uniform and get out on the floor is part of the equation. It's not about blame, its simply about facts. I always said that Jason Thompsons greatest asset to the Kings was his durability. You can be the most talented player in the league, but if you can't get on the floor and play, your value drops like a rock.
None of this means that another team doesn't think that a change of scenery won't help Bagley. And maybe it would. He wouldn't go to another team with the same expectations being put on him. So the problem with trading him isn't about his talent, but about how much he's making, and will make next season, which is 11.3 mil. The following season he has a qualifying offer of around 14 mil. That's a lot of money to take on for a still unproven player.
Would I trade Marvin for Bey? That's a hard one for me. Anyone that reads the crap I write knows that I'm a big fan of Bey's, and had him pegged as my choice for the Kings in this last draft. Of course that's before Haliburton dropped to us. Do I think Bagley will be a better player than Bey. I think he could be, but here's the thing, it doesn't matter if he's injured all the time. But I'm certainly not ready to give Bagley away for a 2nd rd pick and a bag of chips. That's nonsense!
I think the only way the Kings get value for Bagley is by staying the course, or as part of a much larger trade that makes sense. Am I willing to move on from Bagley? I think that if I could get a player that fits what the team is doing and who could help us take another step toward being competitive in the Western Conference, then yes! At the end of the day, I don't care about Bagley or any particular player, I care about winning. And when it comes to players, I go back to that old statement. "Your either part of the problem, or your part of the solution". If your not part of the solution, then goodbye!
I actually watched Doncic play a lot in the European league, and there's no doubt he was a star there, but nothing he did, made me believe he would be as good as he turned out to be. As a matter of fact, I felt he wasn't in the best shape he needed to be in, and that his 3pt shot was very inconsistent. But hey, kudo's to him. He appears to be the real deal.
The general consensus on Bagley seems to be that yes, so far he hasn't lived up to being the 2nd pick in the draft, but he is improving, if slowly.
Bagley year one: 25 mpg - 14.9 ppg - 50.4% fgp - 31.3% 3pp - 69.1% ftp - 7.6 rpg - 1.0 apg - 0.5 stl's - 1.0 Blk's
Bagley year three: 25 mpg - 13.9 ppg - 50.2% fgp - 35.4% 3pp - 56.0% ftp - 7.4 rpt - 0.9 apg - 0.5 stl's - 0.5 Blk's
The stat line makes the argument of his improvement a little tough. Yes, he has improved his three point shot, and I think his on the ball defense, especially away from the basket has improved. But his off the ball defense is still terrible at times. His free throw shooting has regressed. In short, it's not the kind of jump your looking for.
Of course the counter argument is that his injuries have slowed his development, and that's a fair argument. But when your evaluating a players worth to the team, his ability to put on a uniform and get out on the floor is part of the equation. It's not about blame, its simply about facts. I always said that Jason Thompsons greatest asset to the Kings was his durability. You can be the most talented player in the league, but if you can't get on the floor and play, your value drops like a rock.
None of this means that another team doesn't think that a change of scenery won't help Bagley. And maybe it would. He wouldn't go to another team with the same expectations being put on him. So the problem with trading him isn't about his talent, but about how much he's making, and will make next season, which is 11.3 mil. The following season he has a qualifying offer of around 14 mil. That's a lot of money to take on for a still unproven player.
Would I trade Marvin for Bey? That's a hard one for me. Anyone that reads the crap I write knows that I'm a big fan of Bey's, and had him pegged as my choice for the Kings in this last draft. Of course that's before Haliburton dropped to us. Do I think Bagley will be a better player than Bey. I think he could be, but here's the thing, it doesn't matter if he's injured all the time. But I'm certainly not ready to give Bagley away for a 2nd rd pick and a bag of chips. That's nonsense!
I think the only way the Kings get value for Bagley is by staying the course, or as part of a much larger trade that makes sense. Am I willing to move on from Bagley? I think that if I could get a player that fits what the team is doing and who could help us take another step toward being competitive in the Western Conference, then yes! At the end of the day, I don't care about Bagley or any particular player, I care about winning. And when it comes to players, I go back to that old statement. "Your either part of the problem, or your part of the solution". If your not part of the solution, then goodbye!
Imo with Bagley the most important thing is not to act with sunk cost fallacy. Wether it means overvaluing him in trade discussions or extending him to any meaningfull contract just because he was stupidly taken 2nd in the draft. That was a huge mistake the very second it happened, not just because of Luka but as a prospect he should've never been drafted that high. Before someone says "he was 2-4 in mock drafts", only thing that I can say is listen to smarter "experts" or analysts. Certain analysts had Luka in his own tier and Bagley not in the top 5. Same people had Lamelo Ball in his own tier ect.
Its Bagleys third season. We have a lot of data and film available for us. The same concerns are there: he simply is not contributing to winning. He is extremely athletic and talented but unfortunately the combination of his individual skills dont translate to wins. If he is a negative defender at 4, not above average floor spacer and unable to create for others, then its very hard for him to be a net positive player. Thats unfortunate but as the team knows that, trades should be proposed in the hopes of some gm overvaluing him. The actual trade value wont get any higher than this and extension for him should be off the table. Get anything you can and move on
Its Bagleys third season. We have a lot of data and film available for us. The same concerns are there: he simply is not contributing to winning. He is extremely athletic and talented but unfortunately the combination of his individual skills dont translate to wins. If he is a negative defender at 4, not above average floor spacer and unable to create for others, then its very hard for him to be a net positive player. Thats unfortunate but as the team knows that, trades should be proposed in the hopes of some gm overvaluing him. The actual trade value wont get any higher than this and extension for him should be off the table. Get anything you can and move on
Counter-argument: Jason Thompson's durability is directly responsible for the franchise leader in "games played" in the Sacramento era being Jason Thompson -- so maybe that's not such a good thing? 
I agree with all of this though, very nice post. The lack of any significant statistical progression from year one to year three is pretty alarming. At this point we're pretty much just waiting for a light bulb to go on with him because the development curve has either stalled out or never gotten started. ** Maybe he's one of those players who didn't realize how much improvement was going to be required at the NBA level. I would absolutely trade him for Saddiq Bey considering how badly we need wing defenders (not to mention shooting is always valuable) but I wouldn't make that trade if I'm Detroit.
Ultimately nobody is going to care where you were drafted when it comes time for that second contract. Either you've proven your value to the league or you haven't. With Marvin, I think he's a bench big on a good team right now until he proves otherwise.
**EDIT: Some might argue that Luke's short leash is what's holding him back but if that were the case we'd still be seeing statistical progression somewhere.
I agree with all of this though, very nice post. The lack of any significant statistical progression from year one to year three is pretty alarming. At this point we're pretty much just waiting for a light bulb to go on with him because the development curve has either stalled out or never gotten started. ** Maybe he's one of those players who didn't realize how much improvement was going to be required at the NBA level. I would absolutely trade him for Saddiq Bey considering how badly we need wing defenders (not to mention shooting is always valuable) but I wouldn't make that trade if I'm Detroit.
Ultimately nobody is going to care where you were drafted when it comes time for that second contract. Either you've proven your value to the league or you haven't. With Marvin, I think he's a bench big on a good team right now until he proves otherwise.
**EDIT: Some might argue that Luke's short leash is what's holding him back but if that were the case we'd still be seeing statistical progression somewhere.
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