OK, hear me out. Yes, Gay is a chucker. Yes, he makes ludicrous money. And yes, his defense is questionable. (Though to his credit, this year and two years ago his on/off defensive numbers from 82games.com are pretty good...last year they were terrible. So who knows?)
So why do we want him? Well, let's start by asking the question of how we get him, and see what the consequences are from there.
What could a Gay trade look like?
Memphis is reportedly looking to move Gay in order to get under the Luxury Tax threshold. If they are truly motivated to do this, they may be willing to accept a package centered around Thornton instead of a package centered around Tyreke. If they're not willing to give up Gay without getting Tyreke back, I say we decline. But, if they will, what could such a trade look like?
As it stands, the Grizz are currently $4M and change over the Tax. For any trade giving up Gay-type money, a team that will end up over the cap (like us, or just about anybody else) can only absorb $5M more than they give out, which means there's only a small salary match window that will meet Memphis' needs. For instance, this trade will get Memphis under the Tax and works under salary cap rules:
Rudy Gay ($16.46M) + Jerryd Bayless ($3M) (Total: $19.46M)
for
Marcus Thornton ($7.53M) + Aaron Brooks ($3.25M) + Travis Outlaw ($3M) + Tyler Honeycutt ($0.81M) (Total: $14.59M)
Note that Honeycutt is a required part of this deal to make it work under salary cap rules. The Bayless/Outlaw swap is transparent for this year, but saves us $2.86M over the lifetime of the contracts. I don't think it's a dealbreaker either way, but we're going to be looking for some sort of cookies for eating Rudy's contract, and it seems more likely than a draft pick or two.
Because they are at 13 players right now, the Grizzlies do not have to cut any players to make this trade.
Does Memphis do this?
I'm not going to guarantee that Memphis makes this trade, but given that they badly want to get under the luxury tax threshold, I think they get a good return. Obviously they take Tyreke if we offer him, but if we don't, can they beat this? Thornton steps into the scoring role and becomes their starting 2 immediately. Brooks takes over Bayless' slot backing up Conley, and does it better. Outlaw and Honeycutt probably don't crack the rotation, but provide some size at the 3 if necessary, the one big thing Grizz lose in this trade, because Gay is their only full-sized SF. (Then again, if they're going to trade Gay, are they guaranteed to get a full-sized SF back? It's something they may have to worry about for any Gay deal.) I'm not sure what Memphis does at the three, but they probably use a combination of Tony Allen and Wayne Ellington and Quincy Pondexter. Those options are a bit undersized but give a nice balance between offense and defense.
And they're under the tax while still having Gasol, Randolph, Conley, and now a three-point shooter to spread the floor in MT23. Maybe they do it.
What do the Kings look like after this deal?
Let's just list our players out for a few years:
2012-2013
IT/Fredette/Bayless
Tyreke/Garcia
Gay/Salmons
Thompson/Robinson/Johnson
Cousins/Hayes
We would have to pick up another player because we'd be under the minimum roster size of 13. Maybe we grab the recently-released Sam Young, maybe we grab an emergency big man, doesn't really matter.
I've bolded the obvious rotation players. There are 7 of them. At least one and probably two of Hayes/Robinson/Johnson probably sees rotation time, but this hopefully cuts our rotation down to 8.5/9 guys. This bumps us up to somewhere between $63-$64M, but still well under the tax, so no worries there.
2013/14
IT/Fredette/Bayless
Tyreke/
Gay/Salmons
Thompson/Robinson
Cousins/Hayes
(+Draft pick)
This summer, the two big questions are whether we can sign Tyreke to a long-term deal, and whether we can give Cousins an extension. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume no Cousins extension. We would be paying out about $53M for 10 players (including a first round pick, because I'm assuming we would not make the playoffs in 2013 but would pick in the 10-14 range). We can hopefully use our "hey, we got Rudy Gay" bona fides to bring Tyreke back at about $11M per, then fill out the roster from there, staying well under the tax. Bottom line, we have the money to sign Tyreke without going over the tax.
2014/2015
IT/Fredette
Tyreke
Gay
Thompson/Robinson
Cousins/Hayes
(+2013 draft pick)
Presumably the second year of this team being together (with Tyreke still improving, with Cousins still improving, with Robinson hopefully improving), it would gel enough to make the playoffs, so we wouldn't have a draft pick in 2014. This summer, we have to take care of Cousins and IT. We're in for a bit of a money crunch, because the seven players we know would be under contract would cost about $52M. Cousins' max is about $14M (up to $66M) and IT will probably be worth $5M at that point, so we'd be pushing or over the tax for just our rotation. But it's only a one-year thing, and then Gay comes off, possibly coming back for a somewhat smaller contract if everything works out. Bottom line, we have the money to sign Cousins and IT while only going over the tax for one year.
So why do we do it?
In my eyes, this is what makes it tempting:
1) We get a legit 3
2) We drop at least one man (a tiny PG, no less) out of our rotations.
3) A Cousins/Gay/Evans lineup will force defenses to make more difficult decisions than a Cousins/Evans/Thornton lineup, while having much better D/matchups
4) Despite the cost, we still have the money to keep a young, improving nucleus together
What might stop us:
1) We need to believe this young nucleus is a contending nucleus within two years
2) Is spending that kind of money scary to the Maloofs? Probably. But does Gay bump the value of the franchise for sale? Probably! So maybe the Maloofs would open the pocketbooks in this case...
Thoughts?
So why do we want him? Well, let's start by asking the question of how we get him, and see what the consequences are from there.
What could a Gay trade look like?
Memphis is reportedly looking to move Gay in order to get under the Luxury Tax threshold. If they are truly motivated to do this, they may be willing to accept a package centered around Thornton instead of a package centered around Tyreke. If they're not willing to give up Gay without getting Tyreke back, I say we decline. But, if they will, what could such a trade look like?
As it stands, the Grizz are currently $4M and change over the Tax. For any trade giving up Gay-type money, a team that will end up over the cap (like us, or just about anybody else) can only absorb $5M more than they give out, which means there's only a small salary match window that will meet Memphis' needs. For instance, this trade will get Memphis under the Tax and works under salary cap rules:
Rudy Gay ($16.46M) + Jerryd Bayless ($3M) (Total: $19.46M)
for
Marcus Thornton ($7.53M) + Aaron Brooks ($3.25M) + Travis Outlaw ($3M) + Tyler Honeycutt ($0.81M) (Total: $14.59M)
Note that Honeycutt is a required part of this deal to make it work under salary cap rules. The Bayless/Outlaw swap is transparent for this year, but saves us $2.86M over the lifetime of the contracts. I don't think it's a dealbreaker either way, but we're going to be looking for some sort of cookies for eating Rudy's contract, and it seems more likely than a draft pick or two.
Because they are at 13 players right now, the Grizzlies do not have to cut any players to make this trade.
Does Memphis do this?
I'm not going to guarantee that Memphis makes this trade, but given that they badly want to get under the luxury tax threshold, I think they get a good return. Obviously they take Tyreke if we offer him, but if we don't, can they beat this? Thornton steps into the scoring role and becomes their starting 2 immediately. Brooks takes over Bayless' slot backing up Conley, and does it better. Outlaw and Honeycutt probably don't crack the rotation, but provide some size at the 3 if necessary, the one big thing Grizz lose in this trade, because Gay is their only full-sized SF. (Then again, if they're going to trade Gay, are they guaranteed to get a full-sized SF back? It's something they may have to worry about for any Gay deal.) I'm not sure what Memphis does at the three, but they probably use a combination of Tony Allen and Wayne Ellington and Quincy Pondexter. Those options are a bit undersized but give a nice balance between offense and defense.
And they're under the tax while still having Gasol, Randolph, Conley, and now a three-point shooter to spread the floor in MT23. Maybe they do it.
What do the Kings look like after this deal?
Let's just list our players out for a few years:
2012-2013
IT/Fredette/Bayless
Tyreke/Garcia
Gay/Salmons
Thompson/Robinson/Johnson
Cousins/Hayes
We would have to pick up another player because we'd be under the minimum roster size of 13. Maybe we grab the recently-released Sam Young, maybe we grab an emergency big man, doesn't really matter.
I've bolded the obvious rotation players. There are 7 of them. At least one and probably two of Hayes/Robinson/Johnson probably sees rotation time, but this hopefully cuts our rotation down to 8.5/9 guys. This bumps us up to somewhere between $63-$64M, but still well under the tax, so no worries there.
2013/14
IT/Fredette/Bayless
Tyreke/
Gay/Salmons
Thompson/Robinson
Cousins/Hayes
(+Draft pick)
This summer, the two big questions are whether we can sign Tyreke to a long-term deal, and whether we can give Cousins an extension. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume no Cousins extension. We would be paying out about $53M for 10 players (including a first round pick, because I'm assuming we would not make the playoffs in 2013 but would pick in the 10-14 range). We can hopefully use our "hey, we got Rudy Gay" bona fides to bring Tyreke back at about $11M per, then fill out the roster from there, staying well under the tax. Bottom line, we have the money to sign Tyreke without going over the tax.
2014/2015
IT/Fredette
Tyreke
Gay
Thompson/Robinson
Cousins/Hayes
(+2013 draft pick)
Presumably the second year of this team being together (with Tyreke still improving, with Cousins still improving, with Robinson hopefully improving), it would gel enough to make the playoffs, so we wouldn't have a draft pick in 2014. This summer, we have to take care of Cousins and IT. We're in for a bit of a money crunch, because the seven players we know would be under contract would cost about $52M. Cousins' max is about $14M (up to $66M) and IT will probably be worth $5M at that point, so we'd be pushing or over the tax for just our rotation. But it's only a one-year thing, and then Gay comes off, possibly coming back for a somewhat smaller contract if everything works out. Bottom line, we have the money to sign Cousins and IT while only going over the tax for one year.
So why do we do it?
In my eyes, this is what makes it tempting:
1) We get a legit 3
2) We drop at least one man (a tiny PG, no less) out of our rotations.
3) A Cousins/Gay/Evans lineup will force defenses to make more difficult decisions than a Cousins/Evans/Thornton lineup, while having much better D/matchups
4) Despite the cost, we still have the money to keep a young, improving nucleus together
What might stop us:
1) We need to believe this young nucleus is a contending nucleus within two years
2) Is spending that kind of money scary to the Maloofs? Probably. But does Gay bump the value of the franchise for sale? Probably! So maybe the Maloofs would open the pocketbooks in this case...
Thoughts?
