Starting lineup going forward - Fox, Buddy, Bogs, Barnes, WCS

[NME]

The only problem I have with bringing Bagley off the bench is when Joerger waits until the 6 minute mark in both the 1st and the 3rd. That leaves only 36 total minutes to play with in the game, and it becomes difficult to give him over 30 minutes while also giving him a proper rest in those 18 minute stretches. When he ends up with 34 minutes, it means he basically has to stay in for the rest of the game once he enters in the 3rd.

 

[Cojc]

I think a lot of what Joerger is doing is trying to even out the rotation. Playing a fresh Bagley puts more pressure on the opponents defensive and when they bring in their bench Bagley is becoming a big difference maker.

Seeing more plays for Bagley inside and yes he needs to pass out to the open man more often and not force it sometimes.

I am starting to think Willie has got the message from the coach that he needs to provide toughness inside and get his points as they come to him instead. The interior defense last game was more of a problem with their guards getting penetration and not our bigs.

Was starting to wonder why all the small forwards the last couple of years aren’t really scoring and struggle to score.
After bringing Barnes in and he is struggling on offense also so maybe it’s just the way we play as I have never felt Barnes couldn’t score. You just don’t average like 19 pgm and then it stops.

 

[TaxMan]

The only problem I have with bringing Bagley off the bench is when Joerger waits until the 6 minute mark in both the 1st and the 3rd. That leaves only 36 total minutes to play with in the game, and it becomes difficult to give him over 30 minutes while also giving him a proper rest in those 18 minute stretches. When he ends up with 34 minutes, it means he basically has to stay in for the rest of the game once he enters in the 3rd.

Agreed. If you want him at 30+ min a game AND CLOSING EACH HALF, he is playing long stretches at a time. Although, to be honest I’m not sure I’ve really noticed Marvin getting tired.

 

[Gguod]

Sorry, if the stat tells me he is the worst PF in the entire league, something is wrong with the stat. Or, at the very least, it should have no predictive value at this stage in the season.

The stat doesnt tell that Bagley is the worst basketball player of all pf's. It implies that as usuall, rookies dont often contribute to winning. For what its worth, Kevin Knox has the worst RPM of small forwards, Mo Bamba has the worst RPM of all centers and Colin Sexton has the worst RPM of all point guards. If the argument is that rookies dont often contribute to winning, I would say that this stat has some predictive value when a rookie has the worst rpm of all pg's, sf's, pf's and c's

 

[TaxMan]

The stat doesnt tell that Bagley is the worst basketball player of all pf's. It implies that as usuall, rookies dont often contribute to winning. For what its worth, Kevin Knox has the worst RPM of small forwards, Mo Bamba has the worst RPM of all centers and Colin Sexton has the worst RPM of all point guards. If the argument is that rookies dont often contribute to winning, I would say that this stat has some predictive value when a rookie has the worst rpm of all pg's, sf's, pf's and c's

I'm squinting but I still don't understand the distinction in your argument. So the stat is not telling me he's the worst player, but if I want to win a game he's the worst PF option I have in the entire league?

 

[Gguod]

I'm squinting but I still don't understand the distinction in your argument. So the stat is not telling me he's the worst player, but if I want to win a game he's the worst PF option I have in the entire league?

It tells that even though he is a skilled basketball player, he still doesnt contribute to winning because he is an inexperienced rookie. It was the same thing with Fox last yeat, same thing with Knox, Bamba, Sexton ect this year. Rookies often dont contribute to winning

 

[VF21]

It tells that even though he is a skilled basketball player, he still doesnt contribute to winning because he is an inexperienced rookie. It was the same thing with Fox last yeat, same thing with Knox, Bamba, Sexton ect this year. Rookies often dont contribute to winning

This is the problem I have with going solely off statistics. They don't take into effect anything that exists but cannot be quantified. Marvin is a HUGE asset out there and a force for good for the rest of the team. Players on good teams develop symbiotic relationships with each other and it's pretty obvious this is already developing with the Kings. Bagley most definitely contributes to winning because of that relationship.

 

[NME]

It's probably accurate that in the first few months of the season, Bagley did not contribute much to winning even when he had some nice stat lines. I don't think it's true any longer since he returned from injury, and certainly over the past month or so he has been a major factor in most of the wins.

 

[Gguod]

This is the problem I have with going solely off statistics. They don't take into effect anything that exists but cannot be quantified. Marvin is a HUGE asset out there and a force for good for the rest of the team. Players on good teams develop symbiotic relationships with each other and it's pretty obvious this is already developing with the Kings. Bagley most definitely contributes to winning because of that relationship.

Rpm is a stat that is designed to measure players average contribution to the game. Its not a perfect measurement by any means but it has been pretty consistent on many things. It usually locates bad defenders pretty well, it quite consistently rates players on top that probably really has the biggest impact and it often demonstrates the fact that rookies dont usually contribute to winning. Disregarding the whole metric doesnt seem justified to me. If player is a huge asset and a force on the floor, usually that metric recognizes those players, or at least it wont rank that player last in his position. If a player is a rookie and he has a bad rpm, its just normal and predictable since even if a rookie is a skilled player, because of his inexperience he most likely wont contribute to winning.

Again, same with Fox last year. You could see he was a skilled player but still he wasnt ready/able to contribute to winning. When it comes to Bagley, its reasonable to assume that he contributes to winning more now than he did at the start of the season and if that is the case, he will most likely rise from the last spot of pf's RPM.

Also you shouldnt go soley on this one stat, no. But if the metric implies that Bagley is last among pf's, then its reasonable to assume that since he is a rookie, he just isnt conributing to winning yet.

 

[Livinthedream]

I'm squinting but I still don't understand the distinction in your argument. So the stat is not telling me he's the worst player, but if I want to win a game he's the worst PF option I have in the entire league?

Yes. That's exactly what we must conclude. It's right there in the math.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Rpm is a stat that is designed to measure players average contribution to the game. Its not a perfect measurement by any means but it has been pretty consistent on many things. It usually locates bad defenders pretty well, it quite consistently rates players on top that probably really has the biggest impact and it often demonstrates the fact that rookies dont usually contribute to winning. Disregarding the whole metric doesnt seem justified to me. If player is a huge asset and a force on the floor, usually that metric recognizes those players, or at least it wont rank that player last in his position. If a player is a rookie and he has a bad rpm, its just normal and predictable since even if a rookie is a skilled player, because of his inexperience he most likely wont contribute to winning.

Again, same with Fox last year. You could see he was a skilled player but still he wasnt ready/able to contribute to winning. When it comes to Bagley, its reasonable to assume that he contributes to winning more now than he did at the start of the season and if that is the case, he will most likely rise from the last spot of pf's RPM.

Also you shouldnt go soley on this one stat, no. But if the metric implies that Bagley is last among pf's, then its reasonable to assume that since he is a rookie, he just isnt conributing to winning yet.

I pointed out earlier that RPM is looking at his season as a whole, but if you look at metrics controlled for more recent play (such as net rating since Jan. 1), he's been contributing to winning as much as any King. Do you know of any source of RPM stats that lets you sort by timeframe?

 

[Gguod]

I pointed out earlier that RPM is looking at his season as a whole, but if you look at metrics controlled for more recent play (such as net rating since Jan. 1), he's been contributing to winning as much as any King. Do you know of any source of RPM stats that lets you sort by timeframe?

Yeah its perfectly reasonable to assume he is contributing more now than in the beginning of the season and I commented on that:

When it comes to Bagley, its reasonable to assume that he contributes to winning more now than he did at the start of the season and if that is the case, he will most likely rise from the last spot of pf's RPM.

Also I dont think there is any way to look at rpm any other way than the whole season. But if he contributes more rest of the season he should rise on that list.

 

[ockingsfan]

I'm not expecting Bagley to start this year anymore, unless the unthinkable happens and we drop out of the playoff chase.

I think Joeger will put the onus on Bagley to develop his 3 point shot this summer, to where he is a viable threat (i.e. 35% on 3 Pointers), before he inserts him into the starting line up next year.

Bagley will need to go through the D'Arron Fox 3 point and weight training program this summer and develop his 3 point shot and add some muscle. The only other option for Bagley to start is if we don't re-sign WCS and replace him with a 3 point shooting center like Vucevic or Brook Lopez this summer.

I think the Kings will re-sign WCS this summer, especially if we make the playoffs, and Bagley will need to go into the summer focusing on his 3 point shot and weight training, like Fox did last summer. If he comes into camp with an improved 3 point stroke, he will be starting at PF next year.

 

[SacTownKid]

I'm not expecting Bagley to start this year anymore, unless the unthinkable happens and we drop out of the playoff chase.

I think Joeger will put the onus on Bagley to develop his 3 point shot this summer, to where he is a viable threat (i.e. 35% on 3 Pointers), before he inserts him into the starting line up next year.

Bagley will need to go through the D'Arron Fox 3 point and weight training program this summer and develop his 3 point shot and add some muscle. The only other option for Bagley to start is if we don't re-sign WCS and replace him with a 3 point shooting center like Vucevic or Brook Lopez this summer.

I think the Kings will re-sign WCS this summer, especially if we make the playoffs, and Bagley will need to go into the summer focusing on his 3 point shot and weight training, like Fox did last summer. If he comes into camp with an improved 3 point stroke, he will be starting at PF next year.

I'm a fan of how Joerger is running his rotation right now. Bagley off the bench gives the Kings a huge boost. He's much better suited as that energy bench guy than Bogdan. Bogdan is able to get a feel for the game as a starter then come in and run the show with the bench.

As for Willie, I'd rather them look at someone with a little more beef. I think the Kings have much of what Willie brings in Giles and Bagley. What they don't have is a big body to bang with the other big bodies. That's been a huge liability with Koufos not in the rotation.

 

[VF21]

I'm a fan of how Joerger is running his rotation right now. Bagley off the bench gives the Kings a huge boost. He's much better suited as that energy bench guy than Bogdan. Bogdan is able to get a feel for the game as a starter then come in and run the show with the bench.

As for Willie, I'd rather them look at someone with a little more beef. I think the Kings have much of what Willie brings in Giles and Bagley. What they don't have is a big body to bang with the other big bodies. That's been a huge liability with Koufos not in the rotation.

I don't see that happening unless some kind of gift falls into our lap. WCS is a valuable part of our fast-paced offense. I truly think people who expect him to be gone might be barking up the wrong tree, especially if we make it to the post-season.

 

[SacTownKid]

I don't see that happening unless some kind of gift falls into our lap. WCS is a valuable part of our fast-paced offense. I truly think people who expect him to be gone might be barking up the wrong tree, especially if we make it to the post-season.

That's true and it comes as a question of price vs. need I guess but I do think there are worthwhile options to look at in FA. In looking at this roster I still don't see he and Bagley as a great duo long term. They aren't terrible but they are like a 0.2 on plus minus. Giles and Willie is slightly better at a 0.4. It should be no shock that Willie is much better with Bjelica at a 1.3.

I'm still not sure about the impact Willie's loss would have on the teams pace per se. It's not like the Kings get a ton of baskets to him in the open floor, nor does Willie bring the ball up. I think the Kings pace is slightly skewed by insane shooting runs of players like Buddy Hield and the basket to basket play of Fox. The stats back it up too. Buddy is currently 6th in fast break points per game and Fox is 8th according to nbaminer.com. Willie is ranked 104th. If anything I think getting a big that can more consistently secure the rebound and toss the ball up the floor would increase the teams PPG totals. Right now the Kings might be playing fast but they are not getting nearly the amount of points they should be getting considering. They should be at or near the top in PPG and they still sit at 9th.

 

[bajaden]

That's true and it comes as a question of price vs. need I guess but I do think there are worthwhile options to look at in FA. In looking at this roster I still don't see he and Bagley as a great duo long term. They aren't terrible but they are like a 0.2 on plus minus. Giles and Willie is slightly better at a 0.4. It should be no shock that Willie is much better with Bjelica at a 1.3.

I'm still not sure about the impact Willie's loss would have on the teams pace per se. It's not like the Kings get a ton of baskets to him in the open floor, nor does Willie bring the ball up. I think the Kings pace is slightly skewed by insane shooting runs of players like Buddy Hield and the basket to basket play of Fox. The stats back it up too. Buddy is currently 6th in fast break points per game and Fox is 8th according to nbaminer.com. Willie is ranked 104th. If anything I think getting a big that can more consistently secure the rebound and toss the ball up the floor would increase the teams PPG totals. Right now the Kings might be playing fast but they are not getting nearly the amount of points they should be getting considering. They should be at or near the top in PPG and they still sit at 9th.

Just so you know, the lineup of Willie, Bagley, Barnes, Buddy, and Fox, has the lowest defensive rating of the year. Our defensive rating has gone from 111.3 to 105.1. That amigo is a gigantic drop, and one of the reasons we've been in every game, sometimes despite terrible shooting (Miami game) since Barnes arrival. I go by the old saying, if it isn't broke, don't fix it.

 

[SacTownKid]

Just so you know, the lineup of Willie, Bagley, Barnes, Buddy, and Fox, has the lowest defensive rating of the year. Our defensive rating has gone from 111.3 to 105.1. That amigo is a gigantic drop, and one of the reasons we've been in every game, sometimes despite terrible shooting (Miami game) since Barnes arrival. I go by the old saying, if it isn't broke, don't fix it.

He's not a complete negative by any stretch and has made big defensive plays lately, but the question was the impact it would have on the teams fast paced ways. And what IS broke? Lets not forget here, the Kings still have a negative net rating. The Kings have beat expectations but I don't agree with the notion that they shouldn't aggressively look to improve themselves and offensively is where this team is going to make it's case as one of the best. Willie not being a threat to score from anywhere outside of 10 feet (although he should be able to with a little confidence in his stroke) and also not being a one on one threat inside causes plenty of problems that will inhibit this team in many ways. If Joerger had intentions of using more quick hitting pick and roll plays with Willie as the roll man I would have a different view of him and I think the Kings results offensively would be a bit better honestly. The bigs handing off or playing up high doesn't look to be leaving the playbook anytime soon and I think there are better long term investments to be had there if that's the case whether it be a bigger body better able to screen players, better passing, better one on one play, better rebounding, better shooting ability etc.

 

[VF21]

Well, so much for that lineup. It appears Bagley is cracking the starting 5 tonight.

GO KINGS!!

 

[regularkingsfan]

That's true and it comes as a question of price vs. need I guess but I do think there are worthwhile options to look at in FA. In looking at this roster I still don't see he and Bagley as a great duo long term. They aren't terrible but they are like a 0.2 on plus minus. Giles and Willie is slightly better at a 0.4. It should be no shock that Willie is much better with Bjelica at a 1.3.

I'm still not sure about the impact Willie's loss would have on the teams pace per se. It's not like the Kings get a ton of baskets to him in the open floor, nor does Willie bring the ball up. I think the Kings pace is slightly skewed by insane shooting runs of players like Buddy Hield and the basket to basket play of Fox. The stats back it up too. Buddy is currently 6th in fast break points per game and Fox is 8th according to nbaminer.com. Willie is ranked 104th. If anything I think getting a big that can more consistently secure the rebound and toss the ball up the floor would increase the teams PPG totals. Right now the Kings might be playing fast but they are not getting nearly the amount of points they should be getting considering. They should be at or near the top in PPG and they still sit at 9th.

The team is 3rd in opponent TOV and Willie is a big part of that. He is arguably the best center in generating steals and deflections.

High opponent TOV is important for us because we are 2nd in points off of TOV. I would argue that steals and deflections are more preferable than defensive rebounding because they trigger transition offense faster. Not that I am saying we should forsake defensive rebounding. We should strive be good in both playing the passing lane and defensive rebound. If we can do both then we would go from middle of the pack defensively to top 10.

Willie's skill set is pretty unique that if we are to replace him, something will have to give.

 

[sactowndog]

Still not working for all the reasons we said it wouldn’t.
1) Bogi, Barnes and Fox not shooting well currently.
2) WCS isn’t a real threat down low to cause the opposing defense to care
3) Bogi is a horrible rebounding 3.

Line-up was an awful -19.4 Net Rating with an atrocious 39% rebounding rate.

Well done coach

 

[Kings_of_California]

This lineup needs to be burned with fire. I like Barnes, but I don't like him starting at the 4.

And this Bogi starting thing is the worst of all - this experiment needs to go bye bye.

 

[FoxOnTheRun]

Quit f’ing around now, Coach.

Move Barnes to the 3 and start Giles at the 4.

 

[gunks]

We're dealing with a small sample size against top NBA teams (and the Clips, who own us)...So unless you already had an opinion on this lineup, I'd be wary of forming one based on this past stretch of 5 games.

I've always viewed this small ball thing as a band aid, maybe that's why I'm open to it. When your PG and C (and Bogi) can't shoot, you gotta get spacing somehow! As others have mentioned, down the line (2020? 21?) Fox and Bagley will hopefully both be threats from outside. Until then? Small ball... unfortunately.

Although, at this point I wouldn't mind coach letting Bjeli out of the doghouse.

You know. ... anything to get Bogi's weak *** back on the bench where he belongs.

 

[twslam07]

Net Rating for 5 man lineups that include Barnes and have played at least 30 min together:

Fox / Hield / Bogdanovic / Barnes / Cauley-Stein = +7.4 (84 min)
Fox / Hield / Barnes / Bagley / Cauley-Stein = -0.2 (39 min)
Fox / Hield / Barnes / Bjelica / Cauley-Stein = -12.9 (34 min)

I'm hearing all of this animosity for the Fox / Hield / Bogdanovic / Barnes / Cauley-Stein lineup, but it's the best performing lineup that includes Barnes. Honestly, I think Bjelica should be starting with Barnes at SF (moving Bogdanovic to the bench), but the numbers don't support that right now.

34 min is definitely on the lower side for that lineup so by no means do I think the book is closed on how effective that lineup could be. However, I'm seeing people using these numbers as evidence for saying the small-ball lineup isn't working. That's not the case at this point in time unless we're looking to cherry pick quarters or games (which makes the sample size dangerously small).

 

[sactowndog]

Net Rating for 5 man lineups that include Barnes and have played at least 30 min together:

Fox / Hield / Bogdanovic / Barnes / Cauley-Stein = +7.4 (84 min)
Fox / Hield / Barnes / Bagley / Cauley-Stein = -0.2 (39 min)
Fox / Hield / Barnes / Bjelica / Cauley-Stein = -12.9 (34 min)

I'm hearing all of this animosity for the Fox / Hield / Bogdanovic / Barnes / Cauley-Stein lineup, but it's the best performing lineup that includes Barnes. Honestly, I think Bjelica should be starting with Barnes at SF (moving Bogdanovic to the bench), but the numbers don't support that right now.

34 min is definitely on the lower side for that lineup so by no means do I think the book is closed on how effective that lineup could be. However, I'm seeing people using these numbers as evidence for saying the small-ball lineup isn't working. That's not the case at this point in time unless we're looking to cherry pick quarters or games (which makes the sample size dangerously small).

Good data. Let’s look by game:

Miami 16 min +21
Phoenix . 0 minutes but small ball with Bagley 3 min -69.6
Denver 1 min +150
@ Golden State 11 min. -16
@ OKC B2B 11 min. -17.6
@ Minn no minutes
Mil. 26 min. 31.9. (Giannis limited)
Clippers 18 min. -19.4

I think the story is if Bogdan and Barnes are shooting well (like Milwaukee) it’s a strong line-up. But if shooting how they have been for most of February we get killed on the boards.

I guess the question is do you want to stake our already slim playoff chances on Bogdan and Barnes suddenly getting hot?

 

[twslam07]

Good data. Let’s look by game:

Miami 16 min +21
Phoenix . 0 minutes but small ball with Bagley 3 min -69.6
Denver 1 min +150
@ Golden State 11 min. -16
@ OKC B2B 11 min. -17.6
@ Minn no minutes
Mil. 26 min. 31.9. (Giannis limited)
Clippers 18 min. -19.4

I think the story is if Bogdan and Barnes are shooting well (like Milwaukee) it’s a strong line-up. But if shooting how they have been for most of February we get killed on the boards.

I guess the question is do you want to stake our already slim playoff chances on Bogdan and Barnes suddenly getting hot?

I think the issue with trying to come to a conclusion on these lineups is that it has simply not been long enough.

To your bolded point, Barnes & Bogdanovic have proven time and time again they are good 3pt shooters.

Bogdanovic
2013-14: 37.0% on 135 attempts (Euro)
2014-15: 35.8% on 137 attempts (Euro)
2015-16: 37.0% on 135 attempts (Euro)
2016-17: 43.0% on 107 attempts (Euro)
2017-18: 39.2% on 329 attempts (NBA)
2018-19: 33.6% on 274 attempts (NBA)

Barnes
2012-13: 35.9% on 145 attempts
2013-14: 34.7% on 190 attempts
2014-15: 40.5% on 215 attempts
2015-16: 38.3% on 214 attempts
2016-17: 35.1% on 222 attempts
2017-18: 35.7% on 333 attempts
2018-19: 37.8% on 349 attempts (28.9% on 38 attempts w/ Kings)

If we disregard this season, Bogdanovic has made 38% of 843 3PA since 2013 & Barnes has made 37% of 1,319 3PA since 2012. I'm not going to let a cold streak sway me from what they have shown me year after year after year. Now if it's injury related (which it may be with Bogdanovic) that's a different story, but neither of us really know if there is an issue with his health. You'd like to think Joerger and his staff know but it's all speculation at this point.

 

[sactowndog]

I think the issue with trying to come to a conclusion on these lineups is that it has simply not been long enough.

To your bolded point, Barnes & Bogdanovic have proven time and time again they are good 3pt shooters.

Bogdanovic
2013-14: 37.0% on 135 attempts (Euro)
2014-15: 35.8% on 137 attempts (Euro)
2015-16: 37.0% on 135 attempts (Euro)
2016-17: 43.0% on 107 attempts (Euro)
2017-18: 39.2% on 329 attempts (NBA)
2018-19: 33.6% on 274 attempts (NBA)

Barnes
2012-13: 35.9% on 145 attempts
2013-14: 34.7% on 190 attempts
2014-15: 40.5% on 215 attempts
2015-16: 38.3% on 214 attempts
2016-17: 35.1% on 222 attempts
2017-18: 35.7% on 333 attempts
2018-19: 37.8% on 349 attempts (28.9% on 38 attempts w/ Kings)

If we disregard this season, Bogdanovic has made 38% of 843 3PA since 2013 & Barnes has made 37% of 1,319 3PA since 2012. I'm not going to let a cold streak sway me from what they have shown me year after year after year. Now if it's injury related (which it may be with Bogdanovic) that's a different story, but neither of us really know if there is an issue with his health. You'd like to think Joerger and his staff know but it's all speculation at this point.

Fair point. But there is a long time coaching axiom to go with the hot hand. That most definitely is not Barnes and Bogi. In addition, it’s a clear problem on the offensive glass.

 

[Kingster]

I'd put Brewer in that starting lineup in place of Bogs and have him play 30+ minutes/game. He's been making a very positive impact of late, unlike Bogs, and I think his length at the three could be a plus on defense and he definitely hasn't hurt this team on offense. I also think he's pretty darned quick for his size and so you wouldn't be giving up any quickness in a Brewer for Bogs exchange. So you'd have Fox, Hield, Brewer, Barnes, WCS. Brewer's length is not only good for one-on-one defense, but also for defensive switching, which Bogs certainly isn't. It's not a perfect lineup because Barnes is going to have his hands full with strong 4s, but it's superior to the lineup we currently have. It may go against the grain because the Kings would be starting a guy just gotten off the waiver wire in place of the much hallowed Bogs, but forget egos - do you want to get to the playoffs or not?

Bogs would then come off the bench with Giles in the second unit and I'd have Giles run the point, not Bogs. (Giles should play 30+ minutes also). Bogs needs to focus on shooting, moving without the ball, and defense, not playing point guard. Simplify the game for him and maybe that will help him shoot better.

 

[VF21]

I still think some people put too much emphasis on who starts. We absolutely must have someone on the bench who can give a spark to the second unit. Right now, especially without Marvin, Brewer seems to be a perfect fit for that role.

I have faith that Bogs will find his shot again. He's too good not to. I don't remember the data but I do recall way back in the ancient times when Peja went through a slump...