RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Even lottery picks are a gamble that often backfires. See Kwame Brown, Stromile Swift, Darko Miličić, Adam Morrison etc.
Raymond Felton
- Thread starter RookieOfTheDay
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Even lottery picks are a gamble that often backfires. See Kwame Brown, Stromile Swift, Darko Miličić, Adam Morrison etc.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Its a gamble every GM in the league is willing to take because those high lottery picks make the franchise. You can have 12 Raymond Felton's and still be a sub .500 team. Draft one Shaq or LeBron or KD or whoever and you are in the playoffs/contention forever. And in particular given Geoff's draft record.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
But there is no Shaq or LeBron or Duncan in this year's draft. And The Kings already have what should be their cornerstones in Evans and Cousins. If a pick could yield a player who solved their PG problems, it makes sense for the team even if it's not a "superstar" PG they're getting.
One could also argue that silver (or perhaps bronze, in Felton's case) isn't going to get us a championship. We believe we've hit gold in Tyreke, we hope we've hit gold in Cousins, and one more hit (and a few years of gelling) should get us into the discussion, while silver is unlikely to. And some of us have a good deal of faith in Petrie dowsing out that gold yet again, and high first rounders don't bust out as often as lower ones.
As a further note of the value of first-round picks, see the "Ted Stepien" rule - where the NBA instituted a rule that a team could not trade away consecutive future first-rounders because they recognized Stepien was ruining the Cavs by trading draft picks left and right for silver/bronze vets. This doesn't mean you should never trade away a pick. it just indicates that the expected value of a pick is pretty high. In fact, it might be fun to look at top-5 picks that have been traded (rather than swapped for other high picks) recently to get a feel for the value.
2009: Washington traded #5 to Minnesota for Foye and Mike Miller
2007: Boston traded #5 to Seattle for Ray Allen
2004: Washington traded #5 and Stackhouse to Dallas for Jamison
2003: Memphis traded eventual #2 to Detroit for Otis Thorpe. The trade was executed in 1997, six years earlier, apparently without protection. This was probably not anticipated to be a #2 pick
2001: Clippers traded #2 to Chicago for Elton Brand
2001: Atlanta Hawks traded #3 to Vancouver for Shareef Abdur-Rahim
So that makes a total of 6 top-5 picks traded for established players in the last 10 years. One was traded 6 years beforehand in a move that lacked foresight. One netted a very disappointing return of Miller and Foye and was roundly abused at the time. The others were all for star-level players. Top-five picks are valuable, and we should treat ours as such. I personally don't believe that Felton has that kind of value.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
But you don't really need three golds to win a championship. You really need just two golds and a few silvers that compliment them well. Now that the Kings should have their two golds in place, it makes sense to add a little silver rather than chasing more gold. Sure they might get lucky and draft a great player who fits in perfectly but the odds aren't really in favor of it and Felton would solve the PG dilemma. Production wise Felton is basically Mike Bibby (barring the one year where Bibby was great) with better defense and a lot nicer contract. I'm honestly surprised you all are so down on him.
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J
jdbraver
Guest
If we are going to commit to Tyreke we need our other guard to be a shooter ala Mike Bibby. Felton isn't that plain and simple.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Bibby with The Kings only shot higher than 45% in one season and most seasons was around 43-44% which is right about where Felton is over the last few years. The only thing about Bibby that was significantly better was 3 point % (Bibby 38% Felton 32%).
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RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Awesome. I came up with a proposal that netted a total consensus rejection.
I think most people find the pick too valuable. Now, Felton and Turiaf/Azubuike/other filler for Landry and Beno, you might raise a few eyebrows. Might raise a lot. Not sure if the Knicks would do it, but Landry could definitely help them out this year.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Yeah I could see why Kings' fans would like that but I don't see any reason why The Knicks would even entertain it. Beno isn't as good as Felton and has a worse contract. And if they wanted Landry they could just wait and pursue him in FA and not have to give up anything.
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
I don't really think that anyone is arguing that they don't want Felton. They just don't want to give up that much to get him. Why don't you switch it to a future first, and not this years first. The future always looks better on paper in a trade for the team giving it up.
As an aside. If we make your trade and that first round pick ends up in Denver and they end up with the first pick in the draft and take Irving, and Felton doesn't work out for us much better than Beno, can we beat you up verbally and say I told you so for an entire year?
I don't want to say it's a slam dunk for the Knicks, but the way I see it, they're 5 games over .500, looking like a sure playoff team, and have nothing resembling a power forward since they're playing Amare at center. From here, Landry looks like a good fit, and for this year, not some future free agency. Beno's contract is only worse than Felton's in that it's a year longer, but he's actually a bit cheaper those first two years. I think again it comes down to perception of Felton. Beno's not quite the passer Felton is, and he's not as good of a defender (does D'Antoni even care?) but he's a considerably better shooter. If Beno is an overall downgrade from Felton, I don't think it's that large of a downgrade and Beno's biggest deficiency (defense) may not be terribly valued in D'Antoni's system - that in exchange for trying to haveCarl Landry help out through a playoff run seems fair to me.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I feel like now would be an apprpriate time to drop in this little note that should have been mentioned earlier:
the Knicks aren't trading Raymond Felton. Nor are they trading Landry Fields. Things are finally going well for them and they are NOT going to pee off the NY fans by trading away the favorites who have made it go well midseason. That's a good way to end up in the East River face down. They would need a big star, big pick or somethign really shiny and flashy to at all justify it. Maybe if they collapse between now and the trading deadline.
the Knicks aren't trading Raymond Felton. Nor are they trading Landry Fields. Things are finally going well for them and they are NOT going to pee off the NY fans by trading away the favorites who have made it go well midseason. That's a good way to end up in the East River face down. They would need a big star, big pick or somethign really shiny and flashy to at all justify it. Maybe if they collapse between now and the trading deadline.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Sure, I'll take full responsibility. I'm not too worried about it though because odds and history are on my side.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Ahhhh! The exact words spoken by George Armstrong Custer as he left for the Little Big horn..... His last words by the way were, "Where did all the f___king indians come from"
J
jdbraver
Guest
Exactly a 3pt specialist
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
I was a bit hasty in my thinking when I posted this. I should have said something like Next year's #1 protected pick, Landry, and Dalembert for Felton and Landry Fields. Or, #1 protected pick and Landry for Felton. That would have been more even.
RookieOfTheDay
Starter
Another way to look at is like this. Say you have about 500$ saved up and you need 1000$ to buy whatever it is you want. In that scenario, would you trade a lottery ticket that had a one in five chance of paying 500$ and a one in three chance of paying nothing for a guaranteed 150$ in cash?
Vlade4GM
All-Star
You can make that argument for even okay players. For the position our franchise is in, the abundance of lead guards in basketball right now, and the fact that Felton would not be doing as well in any other system, you have to say no to this. Sure, it's more of a gamble with the draft pick, but you have to lean towards gambling and upside when you're rebuilding. Also, even though high picks are gambles, they are young, on rookie deals, and you have control over who you get to pick. Yes, it is somewhat of a crapshoot, but it's one you can make an informed decision on. At this point, it seems our pick is probably going to be in the top 5 again, that's worth more than a good (but not elite) PG, that needs a run and gun offense (something that doesn't fit with Evans' and Cousins' styles of play) and the ball in his hands.
The potential upside of picks in the top 5 of the draft is very valuable because elite players are extremely hard to come by otherwise, especially when it comes to free agency.
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Boogie-havoc
Bench
yup I said it in the 1st page aswell, even an apparent "no brainer" for the Knicks on paper, as all Kings fans would think, would get rejected immidietly.
The Knicks wanna win now, we're on a roll and playing fantastic, we're not gonna mess that up for future picks.
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