Predict the Starting Lineup / Rotation
- Thread starter SLAB
- Start date
That was one of the best offensive lineups in the entire league last year. That lineup also played 425 minutes, which is pretty big sample size.
https://go.nba.com/8wie
Bagley's offensive rebounding is more than makeup for any lack of floor spacing. Looks like a proven successful lineup to me.
https://go.nba.com/8wie
Bagley's offensive rebounding is more than makeup for any lack of floor spacing. Looks like a proven successful lineup to me.
A lineup of Fox - Hield - Barnes - Bagley - Holmes had a NETRTG of +7.2 last year. A lineup of Fox - Haliburton - Hield - Barnes - Holmes had a NETRTG of +7.6 last year. That isn't elite but it's solid.
I'd likely go with a starting lineup/rotation of...
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Hield (16 min) / Haliburton (22 min) / Mitchell (10 min)
SF - Barnes (18 min) / Hield (14 min) / Haliburton (8 min) / Harkless (8 min)
PF - Bagley (30 min) / Barnes (12 min) / Harkless (6 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Hield - 30 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Bagley - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 24 min
Thompson - 18 min
Harkless - 14 min
Would be open to reducing Bagley's minutes to go to Barnes, Harkless, Hield, etc., but I think this lineup/rotation:
I'd likely go with a starting lineup/rotation of...
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Hield (16 min) / Haliburton (22 min) / Mitchell (10 min)
SF - Barnes (18 min) / Hield (14 min) / Haliburton (8 min) / Harkless (8 min)
PF - Bagley (30 min) / Barnes (12 min) / Harkless (6 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Hield - 30 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Bagley - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 24 min
Thompson - 18 min
Harkless - 14 min
Would be open to reducing Bagley's minutes to go to Barnes, Harkless, Hield, etc., but I think this lineup/rotation:
- Gives us a starting lineup that had a solid NETRTG last year to help us be competitive today
- Gives us more leverage when trying to trade Hield or Bagley since they will be in the starting lineup getting healthy minutes (the perception will be that the Kings don't view them as bench pieces around the league)
- Gives us one last look at Bagley (with high minutes) to see if we want to keep him long term (if we don't end up trading him)
- Allows us to ease Mitchell into the NBA by giving him a manageable bench role as a starting point
Last edited:
Not in the regular rotation.
If Hield is traded, it opens up a spot for him to get some minutes. Davis is on a 2 year deal so it's not like he can simply walk out the door after this offseason.
If Hield & Bagley are traded for useless veterans and picks, the rotation could look something like this:
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Haliburton (30 min) / Mitchell (10 min) / Davis (8 min)
SF - Barnes (24 min) / King (16 min) / Davis (8 min)
PF - Harkless (26 min) / Metu (16 min) / Barnes (6 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Harkless - 26 min
Mitchell - 24 min
Thompson - 18 min
Davis - 16 min
King - 16 min
Metu - 16 min
Or if you want to cut the rotation down to 9 players, you could do something like:
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Haliburton (32 min) / Mitchell (16 min)
SF - Barnes (12 min) / King (18 min) / Davis (18 min)
PF - Harkless (28 min) / Barnes (20 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Haliburton - 32 min
Barnes - 32 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 30 min
Harkless - 28 min
Davis - 18 min
King - 18 min
Thompson - 18 min
Far more likely is that we'd get a player or two back from trading Hield & Bagley that might leap frog guys like Davis, King, and/or Metu in the rotation.
If Hield is traded, it opens up a spot for him to get some minutes. Davis is on a 2 year deal so it's not like he can simply walk out the door after this offseason.
If Hield & Bagley are traded for useless veterans and picks, the rotation could look something like this:
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Haliburton (30 min) / Mitchell (10 min) / Davis (8 min)
SF - Barnes (24 min) / King (16 min) / Davis (8 min)
PF - Harkless (26 min) / Metu (16 min) / Barnes (6 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Harkless - 26 min
Mitchell - 24 min
Thompson - 18 min
Davis - 16 min
King - 16 min
Metu - 16 min
Or if you want to cut the rotation down to 9 players, you could do something like:
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Haliburton (32 min) / Mitchell (16 min)
SF - Barnes (12 min) / King (18 min) / Davis (18 min)
PF - Harkless (28 min) / Barnes (20 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Haliburton - 32 min
Barnes - 32 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 30 min
Harkless - 28 min
Davis - 18 min
King - 18 min
Thompson - 18 min
Far more likely is that we'd get a player or two back from trading Hield & Bagley that might leap frog guys like Davis, King, and/or Metu in the rotation.
Last edited:
Not sure what the rotation will be but the chances that Terrence Davis is out of the rotation is zero. I think he will fill in at the 3 during 3 guard lineups.
I think Davis and Mitchell will be spearheading any type of defensive lineups we go with.
Yeah, right now, the Kings need to create and have an identity of balls to the wall defensive effort with the deep roster.
I think Davis and Mitchell will be spearheading any type of defensive lineups we go with.
Yeah, right now, the Kings need to create and have an identity of balls to the wall defensive effort with the deep roster.
Agreed on both fronts. Davis isn't quite the 3-pt shooter Hield is or Hali has been so far, but he's a better rebounder and man defender than either right now. The rebounding, especially, will be badly needed in those 3-guard lineups.
And, yes, they now have the personnel, depth, and teaching emphasis to pull of 48 minutes of strong defensive effort. As I keep insisting, there is absolutely zero reason this team can't be an average defensive team this year - at least - while remaining a good offensive team.
Average defense + good offense = playoffs. It's a simple formula well within their reach.
And, yes, they now have the personnel, depth, and teaching emphasis to pull of 48 minutes of strong defensive effort. As I keep insisting, there is absolutely zero reason this team can't be an average defensive team this year - at least - while remaining a good offensive team.
Average defense + good offense = playoffs. It's a simple formula well within their reach.
It’s part of the problem with the Mitchell draft versus say Jalen Johnson. We have a very unbalanced roster and I agree it’s hard to allocate minutes for Richardson or Ramsey.
It’s like Monte excelled in Fantasy Basketball and has continued in that pursuit. Camp with Fox versus Mitchell should be interesting. If Mitchell can hold his own against Fox, you have to consider a Fox/Simmons trade.
It’s like Monte excelled in Fantasy Basketball and has continued in that pursuit. Camp with Fox versus Mitchell should be interesting. If Mitchell can hold his own against Fox, you have to consider a Fox/Simmons trade.
I know my recommendation above shows Mitchell getting 24 mpg, but if he shows really well early, you could either cut into the minutes allocated to Harkless or Bagley to give him some more minutes. Something like...
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Hield (12 min) / Haliburton (20 min) / Mitchell (16 min)
SF - Barnes (20 min) / Hield (18 min) / Haliburton (10 min)
PF - Bagley (30 min) / Barnes (10 min) / Harkless (8 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Hield - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Bagley - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 30 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Thompson - 18 min
Harkless - 8 min
This would result in 28 SF minutes being played by SGs (Hield & Haliburton/Mitchell) so we'd be playing small a majority of the time.
PG - Fox (34 min) / Mitchell (14 min)
SG - Hield (12 min) / Haliburton (20 min) / Mitchell (16 min)
SF - Barnes (20 min) / Hield (18 min) / Haliburton (10 min)
PF - Bagley (30 min) / Barnes (10 min) / Harkless (8 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Thompson (18 min)
Fox - 34 min
Hield - 30 min
Barnes - 30 min
Bagley - 30 min
Holmes - 30 min
Mitchell - 30 min
Haliburton - 30 min
Thompson - 18 min
Harkless - 8 min
This would result in 28 SF minutes being played by SGs (Hield & Haliburton/Mitchell) so we'd be playing small a majority of the time.
based on what Luke said yesterday - I could see Len, Harkless and Mitchell getting some run together. Also, I think Tristan Thompson and Buddy Hield are going to run together a bunch with lots screens set for Buddy.
So many players with arguments for run - we may have guys that play only one game of the back-to-backs this year.
So many players with arguments for run - we may have guys that play only one game of the back-to-backs this year.
i am going to suggest something way outside the box:
the giants have revolutionized baseball, going with a platoon system. 4 positions are set (c, ss, 3b and wherever bryant plays in the outfield) but against lefties, they play four right handed batters (flores, solano, slater, ruf) and against righties, they play four left handed batters (belt, lastella, wade, yastremski and sometimes they will "rest" longoria or bryant and play dugger or dickerson).
if a left handed pitcher is replaced by a right handed reliever, the left handed hitters start pinch hitting for the right handed hitters.
it's as revolutionary as stealing the ball at midcourt and going for an uncontested layup - but instead of taking the easy two, dribbling into the corner for a corner "three".
and, of course, the three point line was barely used in the 70's/80's - only really if a team was down 7/8 points with 30 seconds left.
and so, i present, "basketball platooning" in a format resembling hockey (where "lines" are rotated).
(primary scoring threats in caps)
for the first four minutes of each quarter, the kings play their veteran "scoring" lineup:
FOX, HIELD, barnes, thompson and holmes.
this lineup has two "reserves" (in case you need to pull someone who is not "on" that night).
the reserves are len and harkless
at the four minute mark, you use your mandatory time-out and sub in the "defensive" line:
haliburon, mitchell, DAVIS, BAGLEY and jones.
they also have two "reserves" (king and metu).
so, you go 4 minutes (veteran offensive lineup), then 3 minutes (for the "defensive" lineup), then repeat the rotation, but this time it's offense - 3 minutes, defense - 2 minutes.
you do this for at least the first three quarters, at which point the offensive rotation will have played 21 minutes, the defensive platoon 15 minutes and the last quarter you either mix and match or go with the unit that is more effective.
theoretically, if you want fox to get 33 minutes, you could play him the entire fourth quarter, but if you simply repeated the rotation, the offensive platoon would get 28, the defense 20 per which might keep ten guys happy.
let's say marvin doesn't put out on defense - sub in metu.
or davis is cold - get louie the king in there.
or holmes picks up early fouls (in with len) or buddy is hopeless defensively (sub in harkless or maybe put davis with the veteran group and harkless with the defensive line).
the reason this works for the kings is that they DO go quite deep - using an 8 or 9 man rotation would squander one of our biggest assets - the ability to put in a defensive unit that COULD press full court, since they don't have to "pace" themselves or "take plays off" to conserve stamina. you know exactly when you are coming out and can go full tilt for 2, 3 or 4 minutes at a time.
and when a line is "out", they are all sitting together on the bench, discussing switches or how the opponent is defending the pick and roll (for a few minutes, until they go back in).
yeah, it's revolutionary and walton may not have a long enough leash to try something unconventional, but we HAVE "depth", so, we should use it.
the giants have revolutionized baseball, going with a platoon system. 4 positions are set (c, ss, 3b and wherever bryant plays in the outfield) but against lefties, they play four right handed batters (flores, solano, slater, ruf) and against righties, they play four left handed batters (belt, lastella, wade, yastremski and sometimes they will "rest" longoria or bryant and play dugger or dickerson).
if a left handed pitcher is replaced by a right handed reliever, the left handed hitters start pinch hitting for the right handed hitters.
it's as revolutionary as stealing the ball at midcourt and going for an uncontested layup - but instead of taking the easy two, dribbling into the corner for a corner "three".
and, of course, the three point line was barely used in the 70's/80's - only really if a team was down 7/8 points with 30 seconds left.
and so, i present, "basketball platooning" in a format resembling hockey (where "lines" are rotated).
(primary scoring threats in caps)
for the first four minutes of each quarter, the kings play their veteran "scoring" lineup:
FOX, HIELD, barnes, thompson and holmes.
this lineup has two "reserves" (in case you need to pull someone who is not "on" that night).
the reserves are len and harkless
at the four minute mark, you use your mandatory time-out and sub in the "defensive" line:
haliburon, mitchell, DAVIS, BAGLEY and jones.
they also have two "reserves" (king and metu).
so, you go 4 minutes (veteran offensive lineup), then 3 minutes (for the "defensive" lineup), then repeat the rotation, but this time it's offense - 3 minutes, defense - 2 minutes.
you do this for at least the first three quarters, at which point the offensive rotation will have played 21 minutes, the defensive platoon 15 minutes and the last quarter you either mix and match or go with the unit that is more effective.
theoretically, if you want fox to get 33 minutes, you could play him the entire fourth quarter, but if you simply repeated the rotation, the offensive platoon would get 28, the defense 20 per which might keep ten guys happy.
let's say marvin doesn't put out on defense - sub in metu.
or davis is cold - get louie the king in there.
or holmes picks up early fouls (in with len) or buddy is hopeless defensively (sub in harkless or maybe put davis with the veteran group and harkless with the defensive line).
the reason this works for the kings is that they DO go quite deep - using an 8 or 9 man rotation would squander one of our biggest assets - the ability to put in a defensive unit that COULD press full court, since they don't have to "pace" themselves or "take plays off" to conserve stamina. you know exactly when you are coming out and can go full tilt for 2, 3 or 4 minutes at a time.
and when a line is "out", they are all sitting together on the bench, discussing switches or how the opponent is defending the pick and roll (for a few minutes, until they go back in).
yeah, it's revolutionary and walton may not have a long enough leash to try something unconventional, but we HAVE "depth", so, we should use it.
And it's up to his coach to now play that Fantasy Basketball on the floor so this has a chance of working if for nothing other than to maintain asset value. Don Nelson could be easily take this squad as is into the playoffs and probably get them up to a 5-6 seed. Long term who knows how it works but this is obviously a talented team if even wonky on paper. It's the dude making rotation decisions that has to "get it". Monte better give him all of about 20 games before he pulls the plug on him and then another 20 or so before he's starts looking to be aggressive in building a non-wonky roster.
Looks pretty reasonable. I don't think Bagley gets to 30 MPG right from the jump though, probably something closer to 23-24. And I think you nailed Mitchell too initially, 23-24 seems more correct from the jump and they'll work him up similar to Hali if he comes out the gate firing. 18 for Thompson seems somewhat aggressive, but Holmes hasn't consistently been able to jump up to 33-34 minutes yet. That will be interesting to watch if now that he's here long-term, if we're more comfortable giving him extra minutes.
I think Buddy/Barnes get those extra minutes and Hali stays consistently in the 32 minute range. That also leaves Davis/Len/Metu/King out of the rotation. Should be interesting how Walton manages this depth.
I think Buddy/Barnes get those extra minutes and Hali stays consistently in the 32 minute range. That also leaves Davis/Len/Metu/King out of the rotation. Should be interesting how Walton manages this depth.
As of now I'd go with Fox, Buddy, Barnes, Holmes and Len.
2nd unit Mitchell, Haliburton, Davis, Bagley, Thompson
You have to have Buddy with Fox to open up the floor. I saw here somewhere that Len has become a pretty respectable shooter. Holmes can still PnR with Fox, and Barnes is the corner three guy that can also drive. Len matches up with bigger centers, Holmes can switch on the perimeter. If I recall correctly, a Len Holmes pairing was a positive for us last time they played together.
2nd unit can have a more defensive mindset, can still PnR with both bigs, Bagley can also shoot, and both guards can shoot 3s. Thompson can rebound. This squad actually sounds promising in transition as well.
2nd unit Mitchell, Haliburton, Davis, Bagley, Thompson
You have to have Buddy with Fox to open up the floor. I saw here somewhere that Len has become a pretty respectable shooter. Holmes can still PnR with Fox, and Barnes is the corner three guy that can also drive. Len matches up with bigger centers, Holmes can switch on the perimeter. If I recall correctly, a Len Holmes pairing was a positive for us last time they played together.
2nd unit can have a more defensive mindset, can still PnR with both bigs, Bagley can also shoot, and both guards can shoot 3s. Thompson can rebound. This squad actually sounds promising in transition as well.
Last edited:
Nelson didn't play 90's ball, he played future ball. That "junk" ball many claimed was just that has largely become the norm. Heck, PG13 at center just wiped the defensive player of the year off the floor because of that style of junk ball. The game is broke. Is it the long term path the team should be on? Time will tell. Nobody is more disappointed than I as to how the summer worked out where plan A was apparently to run it back with the same nearly out of the league Harkless on the wing but as a guard heavy team this team has legit talent. I will cringe should Harkless get minutes over almost any of them for matchup reasons. If it happens that either means Walton is tinkering again or the guard plan failed miserably. Either option not being ideal.
The Kings set records for bad defense last year.
That means the two worst defenders get less minutes. They would be Hield and Bagley.
Mitchell is one of the best defenders the Kings have seen in awhile so he gets minutes.
Fox leads the team, Halliburton has earned the right to start. Barnes is a steady player and a good defender. Holmes is a better defender than people realize. The 3 guard, Barnes, Holmes line up is the best defensive group the Kings have. They may be over matched for size at times. Bring in Len and Thompson. They could try 3 guards and 2 centers. It should be interesting at least.
If the Kings insist on starting Hield and Bagley together, I will probably stop watching them. No one can win in the NBA with two bad defenders.
That means the two worst defenders get less minutes. They would be Hield and Bagley.
Mitchell is one of the best defenders the Kings have seen in awhile so he gets minutes.
Fox leads the team, Halliburton has earned the right to start. Barnes is a steady player and a good defender. Holmes is a better defender than people realize. The 3 guard, Barnes, Holmes line up is the best defensive group the Kings have. They may be over matched for size at times. Bring in Len and Thompson. They could try 3 guards and 2 centers. It should be interesting at least.
If the Kings insist on starting Hield and Bagley together, I will probably stop watching them. No one can win in the NBA with two bad defenders.
I think the starting five will be the same as it was last year. The back court rotation will be as it was when we had CoJo, except with Davion. Assuming Mo and TT will get most of the backup front court minutes with some scraps for Metu.
I'd like to see King, Swag, Metu, and Davis get consistent minutes but don't see that happening without injuries or a trade.
I'd like to see King, Swag, Metu, and Davis get consistent minutes but don't see that happening without injuries or a trade.
