Well this is how I see it:
GSW, Spurs, Houston (Houston won 56 games- the 2nd seed- last year with Beverley missing 26 games playing washed up players, and just got deeper through the draft with Dekker and Harrell) and Memphis (55 games lat year, basically staying the same team with the addition of Matt Barnes and replacing Koufos with Brandan Wright) are the sure things here after having pretty stable, or in the case of San Antonio- awesome, off-season.
OKC- I really think they belong to the top tier here, but I put them here because it seems like many people think they won't make the playoffs... this team would have made the playoffs even without an healthy Durant last year if they had Westbrook a little more- they were tied with the Pelicans in wins, in a season in which Westbrook came rusty after an injury and didn't play 15 games, Serge Ibaka missed 18 games and Kevin Durant missed 55 games, and they were still very close to make the playoffs...
That's ain't gonna happen again- and they are going to be in.
Clippers- I know they basicaly replaced DeAndre Jordan with JaVale McGee. but while Doc GM sucks, Coach Doc is pretty damn good. and the additions of Lance Stephenson (the equivalent to us signing Rondo, only lance never tore is ACL) and Paul Pierce (giving this team an option to go super-small with Pierce at the 4 and Blake at the 5) to a team that already have the best PG in the league, a top 5 NBA player, perennial 6th man of the year contender and one of the best shooters in the league- lead by one of the best coaches in the league, should be enough for them to clinch a playoff spot.
New Orleans Pelicans- again, they had a lot of injuries- Jrue Holiday missed the better half of the season, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon sat out for more than 20 games and even AD missed 14 games... they had a weird off season, paying way too much to Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca- but they made a really big improvement this summer- on the sidelines.
The gap between Monty Williams to Alvin Gentry is huge, and with that and a little more luck with injuries they belong in the playoffs.
We got 7 teams already in:
1. GSW
2. Spurs
3. Houston
4. OKC
5. Memphis
6. Clippers
7. Pelicans
Now the 8th seed remaining there are a number of teams in the running for it- Mavericks, Suns, Jazz and of course the Kings.
If I had too rank between those teams it will probably look like that:
1. Jazz
2. Mavericks
3. Kings
4. Suns
The Jazz went 19-10 after the Kanter trade while being the best defense in the league, they kept the same team (points for stability) while adding Trey Lyles and pretty much gaining another major part of their rotation with Alec Burks who played 27 games last year is healthy again, but maybe most importantly their core of young players just had another year of growing... I think they are going to be good, and they are the safe bet for the 8th seed.
Dallas- for all their faults, with Monta having a pretty bad season last year and Rondo screwing up team chemistry they still won 50 games, again, they got JJ Barea back and they are in the running for Jeremy Lin (I assume they won't get him, otherwise they might be higher), they have some holes but DeAndre is a perfect fit there- Dallas is finishing big-men heaven, just look what they have done to Brandan Wright.
They have a very good coach and made some nice pick ups with minimum deals, the only reason I'm putting them out of the playoffs is that I hate to gamble on a guy that's coming of an Achilles injury, if Matthews is healthy this team is gonna be in the playoffs.
Kings- I think we know enough about the Kings here, I think they are not a safe bet because there are a ton of things that can go wrong, or to put it better- a lot of things need to go right for us, Rondo regains is older form and not clashing with anyone, Karl drama solved, Karl not insisting on playing small-ball with a team filled with 7 footers, Cousins and Koufos working well together on the floor, WCS being able to contribute quality minutes as a rookie...
This team is absolutely better than it was last year but to jump from 29 to near 50 is a huge leap for a team, if everything click it is possible- but it's not a given that everything will click.