Players to watch: 2016/17 college season.

Alright, I wasn't very high on Jackson starting off the season, but I'm sold on him now. He's a top 3 player in this draft. There's nothing he can't do. I see his superstar potential.

I've cooled down A LOT on Lauri Markkanen. I can't see him being anything more than a role player like Channing Frye. He's seriously been such a frustrating player to scout, mostly because he's wildly inconsistent. Despite drawing a lot of fouls relative to FGA, he plays soft on both ends. On defense, his interior defense is horrible. Will not help you protect the rim at all, and doesn't show much anticipation. He can always bulk up and improve as post-defender though. He's good in guarding the perimeter, but that doesn't mean much. Willie was stouted as a player who could guard PGs, SGs, and SFs. How often has that been advantageous for the Kings? Not at all (maybe under Karls' ridiculous defense). All it means with Markkanen is that he won't get killed in PnR or switches. On offense, aside from 3pt shooting, he displays an inconsistent post game. He doesn't do much in terms of passing for a big man. On the boards, he's just average.

If it were up to the Kings, I'm not drafting him at all. This is an elite draft and I wouldn't want to sell myself short on somehow who I think is more suited to be a career role player as a 4th option than a potential #1 or #2 player. Maybe this comes off as harsh, but he's such a widely inconsistent player. I've watched 2 games in a row where he basically did nothing. Showed nothing. Extremely passive. Wasn't very assertive. It's like watching paint dry on wall.
 
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With Kings lacking any young PG talent decided to look at non-lottery ones (more like late first/second round ones) from the upcoming draft. In part it's based on argument, that I saw pro-Ball group on realgm use: he runs best offensive team in the nation, so despite Ball having only 30Ast% and 18TO%, which suggests, that he's a very good, not great playmaker, and TO-prone one as well, Lonzo deserves all the credit for his teams offensive success.
Well as of right now based on kenpom.com numbers:

team------------ORtg---Opponents DRtg--Pure ORtg
Oklahoma St.--123.8---------97.8------------ +26.0
Kansas----------122.0--------99.1------------ +22.9
Villanova-------122.5--------100.8----------- +22.7
UCLA-----------125.0--------103.1----------- +21.9

So the best offensive team in the nation is actually Okla St. and by pretty wide margin at that. What about their PG, Jawun Evans, then? Only a sophomore, though he'll be 21 by the time of the draft. Then again about 70% of the guys stay back a year now, so it's just a new norm. Evans is the main creator of his team, which evidenced by being their best scorer and play-maker at 25.7p and 7.8a per 40 minutes. His FG% at the rim is not pretty for an NBA prospect at .519 and overall TS% is just .531, but then you notice, that he made 80 unassisted rim shots, 29 from mid-range and 12 from 3 out of his 322. When more than sixth of your shots come unassisted at the rim, that's elite ability to penetrate. For Evans it's 1/4th. In other words he takes all the low percentage shots his team has to take, when possessions break down, or the other team plays excellent defense for 25 seconds straight. Evans has a strong handle to get to the rim under defensive pressure and a nice arsenal of floaters and off the glass shots to offset his lack of size around the basket. Shooting profile of .324 from mid-range and .400 from 3, but only on 3.6 shots per 40, is a bit worrisome for projecting his shooting ability, but the fact, that only 4 of his 33 mid-range makes and just half of 3s were assisted, and his shooting form/quick release give a lot of reason to be optimistic. 185 made career FTs at .808FT% offer further evidence of his solid shooting ability.
What about defensive end? Well, things are not pretty there as Okla St. doesn't bother with defense as a whole, so Evans is mostly just gambling on defensive end (2.8 steals per 40), since his team needs him so much on offense. He's most likely 6' with 6'4" wingspan, though he looks thicker than his listed 175. Maybe not as quick as, say, Darren, Evans is stronger, so he has the tools to be an average defender. As a freshman he had 14.8 DReb% and this year he has 3.3 OReb% - clearly can be a plus rebounder for a PG if his coach asks him to crash the boards. DX has him at #35 right now, but he's a solid mid-20s value at least, even late teens probably.

Second team on the list, Kansas, is powered by senior Frank Mason. At 5'11", 185 he has even worse physical profile, than Evans. And on a team, that actually plays good defense, it's pretty clear, who the weakest link is. That said Mason more than makes up for his defensive struggles with offensive production: in a league, where Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell can be rotation players, there's a place for Frank Mason, who shoots .518 from 3 on 5 attempts per 40, including 1 long-range pull-up per game and getting 3 unassisted rim shots per game (not at the level of Evans, but still absolutely elite level). His mid-range game is last resort, but .358 on pull-ups is ok. Defense is pretty bad due to lack of size, ranging from bad to matador, but he's pretty strong and tries at least. Mason will turn 23 in April, so with his defensive struggle and overall physical profile, it's no wonder, DX guys think, he will have to earn NBA spot via summer league, October camp and likely DLeague.

Not the main cog of elite offense, but third guy on my list would be Kobi Simmons from Arizona. Bench player, who is just one of hoard of athletic guards, Sean Miller throws out there every game, Simmons is nonetheless distinguished by his ability to get by his defender one-on-one with ease, and quick decision-making. Despite being 6'4" tall Simmons is just 175 pounds with only 6'6" wingspan, though that small wingspan is mostly explained by his narrow shoulders, not short arms, which his 8'4" standing reach (very good for a PG) confirms. Those measurements are 2.5 years old though, so he might be longer now. Shooting is very much work in progress, though Simmons looks like he'll at least be a decent shooter: .346 from mid-range (almost all pull-ups), .341 from 3 on 4.5 attempts per 40 (third of those were pull-ups), .802 FT%. Being third option at best most of the time Simmons doesn't have command of the offense only getting 4 assists per 40 with his limited touches, but vision and passing technique is there. Smaller wingspan does hurt a bit on defensive end as his steals numbers are low, but those are not an absolute indicator of defensive ability, and as Simmons is maturing and getting stronger, he can develop into a very good defender thanks to his exceptional quickness and very good length. With not a lot of power players among NBA SGs Simmons will likely have positional versatility as well. For now Sean Miller will look at 24 y.o. Kadeem Allen rather than 19 y.o. Simmons for stops. Kobi is very raw and weak, and unlikely to have an expanded role now that Allonzo Trier is back. Still DX believe, Simmons is declaring, and have him at #45.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
With Kings lacking any young PG talent decided to look at non-lottery ones (more like late first/second round ones) from the upcoming draft. In part it's based on argument, that I saw pro-Ball group on realgm use: he runs best offensive team in the nation, so despite Ball having only 30Ast% and 18TO%, which suggests, that he's a very good, not great playmaker, and TO-prone one as well, Lonzo deserves all the credit for his teams offensive success.
Well as of right now based on kenpom.com numbers:

team------------ORtg---Opponents DRtg--Pure ORtg
Oklahoma St.--123.8---------97.8------------ +26.0
Kansas----------122.0--------99.1------------ +22.9
Villanova-------122.5--------100.8----------- +22.7
UCLA-----------125.0--------103.1----------- +21.9

So the best offensive team in the nation is actually Okla St. and by pretty wide margin at that. What about their PG, Jawun Evans, then? Only a sophomore, though he'll be 21 by the time of the draft. Then again about 70% of the guys stay back a year now, so it's just a new norm. Evans is the main creator of his team, which evidenced by being their best scorer and play-maker at 25.7p and 7.8a per 40 minutes. His FG% at the rim is not pretty for an NBA prospect at .519 and overall TS% is just .531, but then you notice, that he made 80 unassisted rim shots, 29 from mid-range and 12 from 3 out of his 322. When more than sixth of your shots come unassisted at the rim, that's elite ability to penetrate. For Evans it's 1/4th. In other words he takes all the low percentage shots his team has to take, when possessions break down, or the other team plays excellent defense for 25 seconds straight. Evans has a strong handle to get to the rim under defensive pressure and a nice arsenal of floaters and off the glass shots to offset his lack of size around the basket. Shooting profile of .324 from mid-range and .400 from 3, but only on 3.6 shots per 40, is a bit worrisome for projecting his shooting ability, but the fact, that only 4 of his 33 mid-range makes and just half of 3s were assisted, and his shooting form/quick release give a lot of reason to be optimistic. 185 made career FTs at .808FT% offer further evidence of his solid shooting ability.
What about defensive end? Well, things are not pretty there as Okla St. doesn't bother with defense as a whole, so Evans is mostly just gambling on defensive end (2.8 steals per 40), since his team needs him so much on offense. He's most likely 6' with 6'4" wingspan, though he looks thicker than his listed 175. Maybe not as quick as, say, Darren, Evans is stronger, so he has the tools to be an average defender. As a freshman he had 14.8 DReb% and this year he has 3.3 OReb% - clearly can be a plus rebounder for a PG if his coach asks him to crash the boards. DX has him at #35 right now, but he's a solid mid-20s value at least, even late teens probably.

Second team on the list, Kansas, is powered by senior Frank Mason. At 5'11", 185 he has even worse physical profile, than Evans. And on a team, that actually plays good defense, it's pretty clear, who the weakest link is. That said Mason more than makes up for his defensive struggles with offensive production: in a league, where Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell can be rotation players, there's a place for Frank Mason, who shoots .518 from 3 on 5 attempts per 40, including 1 long-range pull-up per game and getting 3 unassisted rim shots per game (not at the level of Evans, but still absolutely elite level). His mid-range game is last resort, but .358 on pull-ups is ok. Defense is pretty bad due to lack of size, ranging from bad to matador, but he's pretty strong and tries at least. Mason will turn 23 in April, so with his defensive struggle and overall physical profile, it's no wonder, DX guys think, he will have to earn NBA spot via summer league, October camp and likely DLeague.

Not the main cog of elite offense, but third guy on my list would be Kobi Simmons from Arizona. Bench player, who is just one of hoard of athletic guards, Sean Miller throws out there every game, Simmons is nonetheless distinguished by his ability to get by his defender one-on-one with ease, and quick decision-making. Despite being 6'4" tall Simmons is just 175 pounds with only 6'6" wingspan, though that small wingspan is mostly explained by his narrow shoulders, not short arms, which his 8'4" standing reach (very good for a PG) confirms. Those measurements are 2.5 years old though, so he might be longer now. Shooting is very much work in progress, though Simmons looks like he'll at least be a decent shooter: .346 from mid-range (almost all pull-ups), .341 from 3 on 4.5 attempts per 40 (third of those were pull-ups), .802 FT%. Being third option at best most of the time Simmons doesn't have command of the offense only getting 4 assists per 40 with his limited touches, but vision and passing technique is there. Smaller wingspan does hurt a bit on defensive end as his steals numbers are low, but those are not an absolute indicator of defensive ability, and as Simmons is maturing and getting stronger, he can develop into a very good defender thanks to his exceptional quickness and very good length. With not a lot of power players among NBA SGs Simmons will likely have positional versatility as well. For now Sean Miller will look at 24 y.o. Kadeem Allen rather than 19 y.o. Simmons for stops. Kobi is very raw and weak, and unlikely to have an expanded role now that Allonzo Trier is back. Still DX believe, Simmons is declaring, and have him at #45.
Of the three, Simmons intrigues me the most. I think he has the most upside of the three. He got off to a slow start, but has gotten better as the season progressed. Another three PG's worth a look, and I won't go into detail right now because I'm feeling a bit under the weather, but I'm sure you've seen them play and have your opinion. One is Monte Morris of Iowa St. who is probably the best of the three. Decent 3pt shooter and solid defender at the college level. Another is Edmond Sumner of Xavior. He's a solid player who happens to be a terrible 3pt shooter. You'd be betting you can fix his shot. Lastly is Bryant McIntosh of Northwestern. Likely to go undrafted due to age and athleticism. But he has leadership qualities and up until this season, was an efficient scorer. All three are 2nd round picks at best. Of the six listed, I'd take a gamble on Simmons.
 
Yes, Simmons has the best physical tools and one-on-one ability. But what Evans is doing while being just a year older is nothing short of remarkable. Jawun doesn't have a lot of shake, but he's very spedy coming off a screen, so the opposing team is put under a lot of stress, and he makes rather quick decisions on whether to go all the way, release touch shot, settle for pull-up, get the ball to semi-open teammate or just pull out of the drive. Plus 2.8 steals per 40 and rebounding on both ends, even if he can't put it together in the same season means there's definitely some defensive/hustle potential there, once he doesn't have to carry the team. And again amount of shot creating around the rim is just unprecedented.

Don't like Morris as he's a huge problem defensively, just doesn't have footspeed. His only real skill is taking care of the ball.
Sumner is injured, so I doubt he goes, especially with his shooting troubles.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Yes, Simmons has the best physical tools and one-on-one ability. But what Evans is doing while being just a year older is nothing short of remarkable. Jawun doesn't have a lot of shake, but he's very spedy coming off a screen, so the opposing team is put under a lot of stress, and he makes rather quick decisions on whether to go all the way, release touch shot, settle for pull-up, get the ball to semi-open teammate or just pull out of the drive. Plus 2.8 steals per 40 and rebounding on both ends, even if he can't put it together in the same season means there's definitely some defensive/hustle potential there, once he doesn't have to carry the team. And again amount of shot creating around the rim is just unprecedented.

Don't like Morris as he's a huge problem defensively, just doesn't have footspeed. His only real skill is taking care of the ball.
Sumner is injured, so I doubt he goes, especially with his shooting troubles.
Feeling a little better tonight. Anyway, if I were to pick one of the six and wanted someone that I thought had the best chance of stepping in and playing right away, it would be Evans. I suspect that if Evans were 3 inches taller, he'd be higher on the draft boards. Simmons would be more of a long range project.. I agree that Morris doesn't have great foot speed, or explosiveness, but he has pretty good instincts when focused, and good lateral quickness. But he lacks strength which doesn't help him when fighting through screens. also hurts him when going to the basket.

If the Kings only end up with a 2nd round pick, I think Evans would look fairly attractive to them if he sitting there.
 
Jayson Tatum would look good in a Kings uniform. Good size for SF at 6'8", athletic, can shoot the three and can create his own shot. Very mature game for a freshman.
 
Jeff Green...great franchise SF...:D
Tatum definitely has some touch, though shot is very inconsistent, and handles, but he can't create a lot for himself or teammates. I guess, he does remind Green a bit. Tatum has been much more impressive defensively than on the other end.
 
Jeff Green...great franchise SF...:D
Tatum definitely has some touch, though shot is very inconsistent, and handles, but he can't create a lot for himself or teammates. I guess, he does remind Green a bit. Tatum has been much more impressive defensively than on the other end.
Didn't seem to have any trouble creating a shot in yesterday's game. If he can create a shot, then he will likely be more than a Jeff Green.
 
Jeff Green...great franchise SF...:D
Tatum definitely has some touch, though shot is very inconsistent, and handles, but he can't create a lot for himself or teammates. I guess, he does remind Green a bit. Tatum has been much more impressive defensively than on the other end.
lol I'm not the biggest fan of Tatum around here, but Green in his prime was a good SF.

Tatum needs to get his shot more consistent. I don't get why people call him a mid-range player. From all of the games I've watched, his mid game was non-existent. Seems like he's mostly an inside scorer who can shoot the 3.
 
Tatum was in the zone after 3 c&s 3pt, so he knockes long 2 and 3 more 3pt pullups after having 17 total made on the season for wonderful 30%. He's no Winslow, when it comes to shooting, but he's not a good enough shooter to be SF version of Lillard/Kyrie. One thing offensively, that actually separates him from Green, is Tatum likes to run in transition and attack non-set defenses. In other words, he hasn't shown anything, that realistically can be foundation of elite offensive skillset. Of course, it's risky to bet against a freshman, but with enough amount of attempts you can make pretty reliable conclusions.
This level of shooting is unsustainable, but activity on defense is not, which very much exceeds any Green comparison.
 
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Away game against top-50 team. Evans was only 8-17 from the field, but
  • I don't think any of his shots were assisted,
  • he didn't get any easy baskets and had to show a lot of creativity to launch some of his FGs,
  • his penetration/attention, he demanded, gave just enough room for his teammates to get open.
  • his team still can't score at all in half-court
  • Okla St closed some of the separation UCLA had in raw ORtg this week(Okla plays against much stronger defensive field), so they are still the best offensive team in Div I.
BTW Evans sprained his left shoulder (he shoots with the left hand) in December and that occasion splits his 3pt shooting into 2 distinct parts: 10-18 before and 14-45 after.

P.S. These new two-way contracts, plus 2+ times overall increase for NBADL salaries will change draft landscape as 10-15 more underclassmen will leave schools this year.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Tatum was in the zone after 3 c&s 3pt, so he knockes long 2 and 3 more 3pt pullups after having 17 total made on the season for wonderful 30%. He's no Winslow, when it comes to shooting, but he's not a good enough shooter to be SF version of Lillard/Kyrie. One thing offensively, that actually separates him from Green, is Tatum likes to run in transition and attack non-set defenses. In other words, he hasn't shown anything, that realistically can be foundation of elite offensive skillset. Of course, it's risky to bet against a freshman, but with enough amount of attempts you can make pretty reliable conclusions.
This level of shooting is unsustainable, but activity on defense is not, which very much exceeds any Green comparison.
If were being honest here, the majority of one and doner's aren't consistent outside shooters. Tatum is no exception. I'm not a huge fan of Tatum but mostly because I feel he's a simiilar player to Rudy Gay, in that, he's for the most part an Iso player. I happen to like ball movement and player movement, but if your into isolation scoring, then Tatum might be your guy. Now I hate to lock any young player into one style of play, so to be fair, if he's coachable, he might end up being more than that.

That aside, he's a very good midrange player who does defend, although I think he can improve his this area, and who rebounds. He already has close to an NBA body, and looks like he might be able to project to a stretch four in the future. All in all, he's a pretty talented player and he's young, so I wouldn't bet against him. Personally I would take either Jackson (Josh) or Isaac over him. Unfortunately I think both those guys will be gone early.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
lol I'm not the biggest fan of Tatum around here, but Green in his prime was a good SF.

Tatum needs to get his shot more consistent. I don't get why people call him a mid-range player. From all of the games I've watched, his mid game was non-existent. Seems like he's mostly an inside scorer who can shoot the 3.
You need to watch more games. Tatum loves to post up at around 15 to 17 feet and shoot a stepback fade away, very similar to Rudy Gay. Unfortunately in the Duke system, Tatum doesn't get as many touches as I would like. The offense is mostly dominated by Allen and Kennard, both of which are good outside shooters. As a result, they have Tatum going inside a lot. But he's a very capable midrange player. His three pt shot needs work however..
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Away game against top-50 team. Evans was only 8-17 from the field, but
  • I don't think any of his shots were assisted,
  • he didn't get any easy baskets and had to show a lot of creativity to launch some of his FGs,
  • his penetration/attention, he demanded, gave just enough room for his teammates to get open.
  • his team still can't score at all in half-court
  • Okla St closed some of the separation UCLA had in raw ORtg this week(Okla plays against much stronger defensive field), so they are still the best offensive team in Div I.
BTW Evans sprained his left shoulder (he shoots with the left hand) in December and that occasion splits his 3pt shooting into 2 distinct parts: 10-18 before and 14-45 after.

P.S. These new two-way contracts, plus 2+ times overall increase for NBADL salaries will change draft landscape as 10-15 more underclassmen will leave schools this year.
I agree completely on your PS. Huge change and I hope in the future they make more changes along this line. My hope is that someday, the D-League looks a lot like baseball's minor league system with similar rules.

Although I'm hoping that somehow we retain out pick, and that it's in the 7/8 area, I could live with a later pick in the 1st and Evans as our choice. Naturally, I'd rather have Fultz/Ball, or Smith Jr. but that's unlikely to happen. And if the Kings wanted a PG in the later part of the 1st rd that could step in an play right away, Evans is probably the only one capable of doing that.
 
You need to watch more games. Tatum loves to post up at around 15 to 17 feet and shoot a stepback fade away, very similar to Rudy Gay. Unfortunately in the Duke system, Tatum doesn't get as many touches as I would like. The offense is mostly dominated by Allen and Kennard, both of which are good outside shooters. As a result, they have Tatum going inside a lot. But he's a very capable midrange player. His three pt shot needs work however..
I've watched Duke at least 6 times this season, and I don't recall him being a heavy mid-range player. I don't see it. He's a player who can utilize that upper key area, but I don't see him as a mid-range player. When I think of mid-range, I think Rudy Gay or Carmelo Anthony. He does post up at the mid range, but that's something he does to set him up for a spin drive. A lot of draft reports online say that his offensive specialty is the mid-range, but I just don't see it. So after your comment, I went on Youtube and just looked at a few game highlights from games I didn't watch. Saw the same thing my eyes have been telling me lol.
Made only 1 mid range all game

Made only 1 mid range near the 3:40 mark

Made only 1 mid range

Made 3 mid ranges here:


Maybe I'm having poor luck with Tatum on his mid-range days. Not questioning your judgement at all, but I just don't see the "elite" mid-range game a lot of people are talking about. Imo, I think he's better suited if he can be a guy who can consistently hit the 3 ball while also attack inside.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I've watched Duke at least 6 times this season, and I don't recall him being a heavy mid-range player. I don't see it. He's a player who can utilize that upper key area, but I don't see him as a mid-range player. When I think of mid-range, I think Rudy Gay or Carmelo Anthony. He does post up at the mid range, but that's something he does to set him up for a spin drive. A lot of draft reports online say that his offensive specialty is the mid-range, but I just don't see it. So after your comment, I went on Youtube and just looked at a few game highlights from games I didn't watch. Saw the same thing my eyes have been telling me lol.
Made only 1 mid range all game

Made only 1 mid range near the 3:40 mark

Made only 1 mid range

Made 3 mid ranges here:


Maybe I'm having poor luck with Tatum on his mid-range days. Not questioning your judgement at all, but I just don't see the "elite" mid-range game a lot of people are talking about. Imo, I think he's better suited if he can be a guy who can consistently hit the 3 ball while also attack inside.
Well, as I said, he doesn't get the opportunities often enough to really show off all his skills. In highschool most of his game was from midrange in. Right now, I think he takes too many three's and wish he would move a little closer, but maybe that's what they want him to do. The point is, that when he does attempt a midrange shot, he's fairly successful at it, as opposed to his three point attempts. You also have to remember that Duke has him playing PF instead of SF where hé's probably more comfortable. Anyway, not worth arguing over. We're not likely to have any chance of drafting him anyway. My personal favorite is Isaac, but I certainly wouldn't pass on Jackson, who plays with a lot of intensity at both ends of the court.

I agree with you on Smith Jr. But I don't think there's a lot of difference between Smith and Ball talent wise. Just different. I would certainly take either of them, and in my opinion, the PG with the fewest weaknesses in his game is Fultz. He can score almost anytime he wants at the college level, but he has great court vision and is a very good passer. In my opinion, I wish he was more aggressive on offense and sometimes waits too long to try and take over a game. My biggest knock on him was his loss of focus on defense at times, but of late, his defense has improved. He makes the game look so easy, that's it's easy to overlook how talented he is.
 
Thoughts on Wisconsin PF, Ethan Happ??

The guy is such an amazing college player... it's really indescribable(vid posted at bottom). With that, I don't know how he'll be able to translate to the next level. His breed of offense is dying in the NBA.
6'10, 230lbs
26.6min:
- 14.5pts
- 9.2rebs
- 1blk
- 2.8asts/2tos
- 2stls
On these shooting splits:
60/0/50 -yikes.

Looking at shooting stats alone, you can tell that he has no sign of a jumper. Absolutely none, and it's backed by his poor FT%. Also looking at his stats, you can also see that he doesn't do a very good job protecting the rim. 1blk/game isn't bad, but it's not great. However, he does do a good job scoring, rebounding, passing, and stealing.
Looking past stats:
He has a decent frame, but definitely needs to put my bulk on it for the NBA. He is a good athlete who shows solid lateral quickness. His side-t0-side speed isn't nearly as quick as his straight line speed. On offense, he's an amazing post-scorer. He has elite footwork in the post. He shows a lot of patience, and knows how to direct the defender when he has his back towards him. He can turn on either shoulder, while comfortable finishing with either hand(more right hand). He has good touch at the rim, but relies more on his footwork and quickness to get him in scoring position. He has good ball handling skills for a big man(PG in HS), but he tends to get a little sloppy at times. He's a tremendous passer from the post. In the first Wisconsin vs. Indiana matchup, I counted 5 "potential" assists in the first 13minutes of the game alone. He does a good job of feeling for when the double team is coming, and passing it to the open man. He also does a good job kicking out to shooters. Here comes the biggest problem, he's a non-shooter. No jumper to speak of, and doesn't take any 3pt shots, let alone mid range(from games I've watched). He has an extremely odd FT stroke that will need mechanical fixing. Last year, he shot 64% at the FT, while only 50% this year(on the same amount of attempts). With the new wave of PFs, you definitely want a guy who can spread the floor, and this is the biggest red flag when it comes to Happ. No jumper, and struggles a lot at the FT line.

On defense, he'll need to put a bit more strength. He does a good job of holding his own in the post, but he often reverts to trying to swipe the ball away, instead of maintaining position(think of Cousins). As a perimeter defender, he doesn't do a good job for someone with his speed and athleticism. He moves his feet like a Center would, when trying to contain the perimeter. I think this could easily be coached up, because he definitely has the physical profile to guard out in the perimeter. He puts his hands up while sliding his feet. As a shot-blocker, he doesn't have great leaping ability. He relies more on anticipation. At the most, I only see him as a weak-side helper. As a rebounder, he's surprisingly really good. He's good with the fundamentals of boxing out.

Here's his highlight video vs. Rutgers. You'll see amazing footwork with a good combination of speed:

Completely opinionated:
I think he could be special in the NBA. The guy just knows how to play the game. He knows how to pick his spots on the floor, and he has one of the most advanced footwork we've seen in a long time. The thing is, I just don't know if he'll be able to fit the NBA. Post moves are nice and all, but in general, it's completely outdated from modern NBA. There are a few exceptions, but most of those exceptions are centers with post moves, not PFs. I think Happ has the athleticism and quickness to actually play SF in the NBA. He doesn't have a lot of vertical jumping, but he seems to be fairly good athlete. DX completely disagrees with this, as they say They have unranked, and as their #29 sophomore. CBS says: They have him as their #17 in latest mock.
If Happ had any glimpse of a jumper, he'd be a top 10 pick. However, if Rondo had a 3pt shot, he'd be top 10 GOAT pg. I really like him, I'm just not sure if he's NBA material. Thoughts? I actually held off on writing about him, but seeing him dominate Indiana twice, really just did it for me.
Totally forgot Kingsfans has a couple draft nuts as well! Great thread so far, will be joining with some thoughts later on.

As for Happ, I completely agree. He'll be that guy who gets taken in the mid-late first round that has everyone scratching their head as to why the heck he fell. For me, his offensive game reminds me a ton of Blake Griffin without the crazy athleticism. Fantastic ball-handling and passing for a big man, dynamite in the PnR, as you said has excellent footwork and just excellent feel for the game.

We also shouldn't be shying away from an offensive threat in the post with Boogie. Boogie lines up all over the floor and could see some really great High-low action with the two. And again, spacing doesn't always mean having guys camped at the 3pt line. Happ is an excellent cutter and has a great feel of finding holes in the defense. He's not a guy you generally want to be helping off of like teams are more than willing to do with Koufos or WCS or Barnes.

The shooting doesn't concern me as much as you might think. Yeah, basically everyone needs to be able to hit a jumper in today's NBA, but that's also the most teachable skill to learn at the NBA level. Sticking with the Blake comparison, he came into the NBA with a horrible FT shot and a horrible jumper and is now respectable with both. I'll take the guy with a quality all-around game and teach him to shoot rather than have to teach a big man with a shot how to do everything else.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
Totally forgot Kingsfans has a couple draft nuts as well! Great thread so far, will be joining with some thoughts later on.

As for Happ, I completely agree. He'll be that guy who gets taken in the mid-late first round that has everyone scratching their head as to why the heck he fell. For me, his offensive game reminds me a ton of Blake Griffin without the crazy athleticism. Fantastic ball-handling and passing for a big man, dynamite in the PnR, as you said has excellent footwork and just excellent feel for the game.

We also shouldn't be shying away from an offensive threat in the post with Boogie. Boogie lines up all over the floor and could see some really great High-low action with the two. And again, spacing doesn't always mean having guys camped at the 3pt line. Happ is an excellent cutter and has a great feel of finding holes in the defense. He's not a guy you generally want to be helping off of like teams are more than willing to do with Koufos or WCS or Barnes.

The shooting doesn't concern me as much as you might think. Yeah, basically everyone needs to be able to hit a jumper in today's NBA, but that's also the most teachable skill to learn at the NBA level. Sticking with the Blake comparison, he came into the NBA with a horrible FT shot and a horrible jumper and is now respectable with both. I'll take the guy with a quality all-around game and teach him to shoot rather than have to teach a big man with a shot how to do everything else.
You make some good points at to what to look for in a player. Of course everyone has the type of player they like to see, but, and you sort of stated it selectively, because a player may not be able to do something right now, doesn't mean he can't learn and improve in those areas. One of the most important qualities for a player to have, and it's one of those vague qualities that's hard to define, but it's feel for the game. You can see when a player doesn't have it, and the question is, can he obtain it, or is it some sort of genetic thing? When I watch McGee play, and then remember his mom was a terrific player, I'm inclined to rule out genetics.

In Happ's case, he appears to have an excellent feel for the game, and is a very skilled player. I agree that shooting is one of the most teachable skills, but there are some players that simply have no feel for shooting the ball. I'm sure that Rubio has spent countless hours working on his shot, but to little avail. He has improved a little, but he'll never be a good shooter. Marcus Smart is improving, but once again, I doubt he'll ever be a good shooter. And make no mistake, shooting is a very important skill in today's NBA. So when drafting a player that's a terrible shooter, your taking a gamble.

So if you had to choose between Happ, and John Collins of Wake Forrest, who would you take. Players of similar size and Collins just laid 31 pts and 15 boards on Duke. Neither of them shoot the three, but Collins is a better free throw shooter than Happ. Happ has a better feel for the game than Collins. Both players are sophmores. By the way, that's the reason Happ is where he is in the draft. Because there are several other players of similar size and talent in the draft. Plus, this draft is so talented, that to be at the top, you have to be pretty special in some area, and Happ isn't. That's not a knock on him. It just is what it is.
 
The ****ing incompetent Kings look to be keeping their lotto pick this year. I don't trust their judgement at all, so I'm wondering if it would be a waste of time diving deep into prospects, knowing the Kings will draft another bust. Apparently, there were better offers out there, but the Kings saw Hield as a "top 5 pick". I know you guys liked him as a prospect, but the guy has been GARBAGE in the NBA. He's been such a ginormous disappointment on all levels. Makes it worse that he's basically only 2 months younger than McLemore who's already a 4-year player. All of his pre-draft concerns have come up. Mediocre athlete. Doesn't have the quickness to get in the paint. Can't finish well enough. Horrible on defense.
lol so the Kings will have 4 SGs on the roster next year. Hield, Temple, Richardson, and Bogdanovic. Hield, Richardson, and Bogdanovic will cause a gigantic long-jam.. especially with the assumption that all 3 guys are franchise SG candidates.

Kings are currently in 11th seed. Sixers 5th seed. Are there enough games left for both Philly and the Kings to end up bottom 5? We really need Dennis Smith Jr. I think he could become better than Fultz and Ball. With Celtics, Suns, Lakers, Magic, Sixers, and Mavs all n the bottom 6-7, all of those teams need a PG. Celts less, but I don't see them passing up on Fultz. Does DSJ even last to the Kings if we pick at #5? Kings might need a top 3 pick, but I don't see that happening.

Pelican's pick looks like it'll be somewhere between 12-16.

Lots of guys I want in this draft, so I'll just go ahead and roll out the list that I don't want in the top 10. Hopefully the Kings don't draft them...AGAIN.
1. Lauri Markkanen- soft shooting big, don't see him as a franchise player
2. Malik Monk- I will seriously give up my freaking fandom if the Kings pick another SG
3. Miles Brdiges- bball IQ is horrible
4. DeAaron Fox- horrible shooter, he's a more aggressive Elfrid Payton. ball dominant PG who can't shoot or play off-ball

List of guys I don't with the Pelicans pick (12-16)
1. Harry Giles- stay away
2. Terrance Ferugson- seriously don't like him at all. don't see the upside or rave over him. again, would give up my fandom if we draft another SG.
3. Justin Jackson- screams Tyler Honeycutt, we don't need any role players with picks this high

Vlade should bring me to help him scout. I'm just as unqualified as he was when he took the GM job.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Kings are currently in 11th seed. Sixers 5th seed. Are there enough games left for both Philly and the Kings to end up bottom 5? We really need Dennis Smith Jr. I think he could become better than Fultz and Ball. With Celtics, Suns, Lakers, Magic, Sixers, and Mavs all n the bottom 6-7, all of those teams need a PG. Celts less, but I don't see them passing up on Fultz. Does DSJ even last to the Kings if we pick at #5? Kings might need a top 3 pick, but I don't see that happening.
Do they though?

Celtics already have their PG depth chart completely filled up between IT, Smart, and the "untradeable" Rozier.

Suns have Bledsoe and Knight and thus far don't seem too eager to get rid of one of those guys for some reason. Definitely do see them passing on Dennis Smith though.

Lakers are a mess (not as much as us though, yay!) but already are invested in DeAngelo and have Clarkson behind him.

The Magic, I agree, need a PG.

The Sixers also do and, injury concerns aside, are one Fultz or Ball away from being the next OKC Thunder pre-Durant cupcaking.

I have no idea what the Mavs will do. They have franchise player shaped hole in their roster but not particularly one at the PG position.

Which, assuming our pick lands around 5-10, probably means we wind up with Jonathan Isaac (Slightly less confused Brandon Ingram! If we were stuck in the 5-8 range, I'd be happy with that over the alternatives) or Frank Ntilikina (Nu-Reke! Although I would honestly enjoy watching him play in Joerger's defensive system). I'd even be fine with picking up De'Aaron. Do agree that I want nothing to do with Monk or Lauri though.
 
ok, this may sound crazy, but what if the Kings are looking to tank next year for Luka Doncic? Vlade has all of his Europe connections.
It is crazy, but that thought has actually run through my head as well...apparently Vlade knew Luka's father, who was a Croatian basketball star of Serbian ethnicity.
 
Do they though?

Celtics already have their PG depth chart completely filled up between IT, Smart, and the "untradeable" Rozier.

Suns have Bledsoe and Knight and thus far don't seem too eager to get rid of one of those guys for some reason. Definitely do see them passing on Dennis Smith though.

Lakers are a mess (not as much as us though, yay!) but already are invested in DeAngelo and have Clarkson behind him.

The Magic, I agree, need a PG.

The Sixers also do and, injury concerns aside, are one Fultz or Ball away from being the next OKC Thunder pre-Durant cupcaking.

I have no idea what the Mavs will do. They have franchise player shaped hole in their roster but not particularly one at the PG position.

Which, assuming our pick lands around 5-10, probably means we wind up with Jonathan Isaac (Slightly less confused Brandon Ingram! If we were stuck in the 5-8 range, I'd be happy with that over the alternatives) or Frank Ntilikina (Nu-Reke! Although I would honestly enjoy watching him play in Joerger's defensive system). I'd even be fine with picking up De'Aaron. Do agree that I want nothing to do with Monk or Lauri though.
If Celtics have the #1 overall pick, they're definitely drafting Fultz...or maybe Ball. BPA. The top guys in this draft are at PG. There's also Josh Jackson who's a SF. IT is 27/28, and I don't think they mind grooming a 19yearold replacement. I don't think they pick Josh Jackson because they already have Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics need a PF and a C, but there's none worth taking at #1.
I think the Suns could go towards a rebuild, while cashing in their asset on Bledsoe. If you look at their roster, they have 3-4 main vets, but also have young players like Warren, Bender, Chriss, and most importantly, Booker. Bledsoe is 26, while Booker is only 20. I think they might find a young franchise PG to pair next to Booker.
Lakers are interesting. I really loved Russell as a prospect, and I thought he would be lighting it up..... :oops:. lol turns out that his horrible lateral quickness and athleticism have limited his game at PG. While he has the ball handling, he just doesn't have the quickness to get to his spots on the floor. Lakers are probably looking to move him to SG, while drafting a franchise PG. Clarkson has been their 6th man this year, so I think that'll be his continued role.

I wouldn't mind Ntilikina, but he's definitely going to be a big project. I can't trust the Kings' development at all. If the Kings draft him, I think he ends up being a bust. At best, a Dante Exum. Defensive SG with limited offense.

DSJ is seriously special. I see a lot of CP3+Westbrook's athleticism with him. I think Isaac is a nice player, but I don't see a franchise player in him. The Kings desperately need a bottom 5 pick. If we had Cousins on the roster, then I wouldn't mind guys like Fox, Markkanen, Ntilikina, etc but since we traded him, we are basically left in the rain looking for a franchise player.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
First, I'm not about to defend this trade. I don't understand it. It makes no sense based on what we've heard has been offered for Cousins in the past. Some information has to be missing from this equation. That said, I disagree totally on 2006's description of Hield. You throw out these crazy assessments of a player as though their written in stone. The dude is a freaking rookie, and almost every rookie that comes into the league struggles at first. The one's that don't, usually become superstars. Lebron, Jordan etc. Even Kobe struggled big time his rookie year. Dirk was almost booed out of town his rookie year. So give the kid a break, OK?

I understand your not liking the trade. I don't like it either. I think Hield will be fine, but he's hardly enough along with a couple of draft picks to acquire Cousins. Tyreke probably walks at the end of the year. To be honest, the trade looks more like a salary dump than anything else. One thing is for sure, the Kings have committed to a total rebuild of the team. My advice to them is, get rid of anyone on the team that could lead to winning for the rest of the season. We need to get a pick in the top five if possible and grab one of Tatum, Isaac, or Jackson, and then with the other pick in the lottery (hopefully) go after either Ntilikina or Fox. If the Kings can come out of the draft with two of those five, it will be a good start toward the future.
 
First, I'm not about to defend this trade. I don't understand it. It makes no sense based on what we've heard has been offered for Cousins in the past. Some information has to be missing from this equation. That said, I disagree totally on 2006's description of Hield. You throw out these crazy assessments of a player as though their written in stone. The dude is a freaking rookie, and almost every rookie that comes into the league struggles at first. The one's that don't, usually become superstars. Lebron, Jordan etc. Even Kobe struggled big time his rookie year. Dirk was almost booed out of town his rookie year. So give the kid a break, OK?

I understand your not liking the trade. I don't like it either. I think Hield will be fine, but he's hardly enough along with a couple of draft picks to acquire Cousins. Tyreke probably walks at the end of the year. To be honest, the trade looks more like a salary dump than anything else. One thing is for sure, the Kings have committed to a total rebuild of the team. My advice to them is, get rid of anyone on the team that could lead to winning for the rest of the season. We need to get a pick in the top five if possible and grab one of Tatum, Isaac, or Jackson, and then with the other pick in the lottery (hopefully) go after either Ntilikina or Fox. If the Kings can come out of the draft with two of those five, it will be a good start toward the future.
We both know there's a big difference between Kobe and Hield. Kobe was an 18yearold kid coming straight out of HS. Hield is a 23yearold player coming after 4 years in college. I'm not saying Hield is set in stone, but I don't think he's a good prospect.
It takes time for rookies to adjust to the game, but he's had a green light in NO, but he's been a gigantic disappointment. This isn't the CJ McCollumn case where he was injured in his 1st year, then in his 2nd year, they had already had a full team of Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez and Afflalo. They desperately needed Hield to step up in place of Holiday and Evans. Simply put, he didn't.

Does he need the ball in his hands to dominate? Is this the Jimmer problem? Struggles to play off-ball, but not a good enough player to justify ball handling duties. I'm not a big fan of Buddy Hield. As of right now, he can't do anything except shoot.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
First, I'm not about to defend this trade. I don't understand it. It makes no sense based on what we've heard has been offered for Cousins in the past. Some information has to be missing from this equation. That said, I disagree totally on 2006's description of Hield. You throw out these crazy assessments of a player as though their written in stone. The dude is a freaking rookie, and almost every rookie that comes into the league struggles at first. The one's that don't, usually become superstars. Lebron, Jordan etc. Even Kobe struggled big time his rookie year. Dirk was almost booed out of town his rookie year. So give the kid a break, OK?

I understand your not liking the trade. I don't like it either. I think Hield will be fine, but he's hardly enough along with a couple of draft picks to acquire Cousins. Tyreke probably walks at the end of the year. To be honest, the trade looks more like a salary dump than anything else. One thing is for sure, the Kings have committed to a total rebuild of the team. My advice to them is, get rid of anyone on the team that could lead to winning for the rest of the season. We need to get a pick in the top five if possible and grab one of Tatum, Isaac, or Jackson, and then with the other pick in the lottery (hopefully) go after either Ntilikina or Fox. If the Kings can come out of the draft with two of those five, it will be a good start toward the future.
A sincere tank on our part and a season ending fist fight between AD and Boogie would solve that part of the equation. We could get two top 5 picks. ;)