Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

gunks · May 24, 2015

Here are my personal "enthusiasm tiers" for this draft:

Tier 1(ecstatic): this is if one of the top prospects drops to us.

Tier 2 (hella pumped): WCS, Winslow, Mudiay

Tier 3 (optimistically intrigued): Porzingis, Johnson, Hezonja

Tier 4 (uninformed bitterness fueled by racial stereotyping): Kaminsky

bajaden · May 24, 2015

dude12 said:

Number one, the jury is still out on Stauskas. Number two, just because a player is a great athlete, it doesn't make him a great player. I love Winslow, but I'm not sure that SF is his best position, and we already drafted two SG's. Porzingis is definitely in the mix, but he's probably not going to be a great help his first year in the league. If that's OK with you, and you won't be bitching halfway through the season when Kaminsky is in the mix for rookie of the year, and Pozingis is struggling, then fine. How many times have you seen Kaminsky play? Who has outplayed him this year? Why is he a reach? Because some mock drafts decided he should go at 12 or lower? Look, as I said, I hope Cauley-Stein is there, and we pick him. And I'm not saying that if he isn't, we should take Kaminsky. What Iám saying is that he definitely should be considered. Don't be surprised if you see him move up the draft boards a little as he starts working out.

funkykingston · May 24, 2015

I don't know that anyone is looking at Mudiay as a franchise player, though given his size and athleticism at the point he has the potential.

No, I think Kings fans are resigning themselves to the fact that Towns and Russell will almost certainly be gone. Okafor too but he isn't a great fit.

Mudiay could possibly slip to #6 and there's a chance he could become a superstar. It's the most obvious way for the Kings to get a star from this draft. I love WCS but he's not going to be a superstar. Will Mudiay? I don't have any idea? Maybe Winslow or Johnson is the franchise player from this draft. Perhaps Porzingis really does become Dirk like on offense and AK47 like on defense. Maybe Kelly Oubre actually puts it all together and becomes a Paul George like player. Who knows?

But if Mudiay is there at 6 I think you have to give him a long look. The tape on him that I've seen shows a guy with bad shot mechanics but an ability to get into the lane at will. I don't see Wall/Westbrook like warp speed or Lillard's shooting or DRose's all around game. To me he seems somewhere between Tyreke and Rose when they came out of college. Of course Rose took a huge leap forward between seasons 1 & 2 and again between seasons 2 & 3 where Tyreke didn't make the same jumps. How good will Mudiay be? Hard to say.

I think Towns, Russell and Okafor are gone for sure before the Kings pick. The other two players are most likely going to be some combination of Mudiay, WCS, Winslow, or Porzingis.

If it's Mudiay and WCS then I don't know where the Kings go. If just one of them is available then I think you have to take that guy. If somehow they are both available? Hmm . . .

206Fan · May 24, 2015

bajaden said:

I personally have on the limited tape that is available on him. He looks to be very athletic, quick, and shifty. He possess great strength that he uses to shield off defenders and attack the rim. He's always looking to kick it out if he doesn't have a good chance at the rim. He plays in a very fast quick pace and I think with a combo of size and quickness, he'll be able to have a huge + vs any PG in the nba. He loves to attack the rim. His shooting will definitely need to be worked on. After seeing the collage of players in the NBA improving their jumpshot, it does give me a good sign for Mudiay. I think he's going be around a .300 3pt shooter his rookie year. I think he has good playmaking and passing skills adding along his good vision. I wouldn't go as far as saying he's going to give you 10asts a night, but I think he's good in that area of his game.
Negatives..However, he forces a lot of passes that aren't there which result in TOs. Some passes, I'm not sure come from lack of communication or what, but they just don't make it to his man. I also think that he could be a much better finisher around the rim. He often tries to draw contact too much. Think of him finishing like how Harden finishes around the rim. I think trying to draw contact is part of the problem, because he's shown that he can be a very aggressive player. I don't think finishing will be a problem, but I notice that he struggles at times through contact.

On defense, he's going to be good. No doubt. Alone, Size and quickness is the reasoning. If he has his head 100% there, he'll be a great defender.

There's a lot of NBA comps to him because he posses a little bit of everything. I think he will a name for himself the NBA because he's such a dynamic and unique player. Here are just some comparisons to current players: He has the offense ability of Tyreke, but he doesn't have the finishing touch. I also think he's a much better play maker than Tyreke is. Compared to Wall, he's not nearly the type of playmaker. However, he has a better jump shot than Wall did coming out of HS and plus Mudiay made his 3pt shots at around .340 in China.
Westbrook is an interesting comp in terms of his athleticism.

I think in all, he has a good floor along with a very high ceiling. I think it's really hard to evaluate a player playing in the CBA when you consider competition, schemes, and etc. You don't really know the circumstances for Mudiay either unless you're a personal follower of that team. There are a lot of unknowns, but Mudiay played very well in HS and in tournaments against other high recruits. He looked like a much better passer when playing in the US so I think communication in a China should be considered when you're looking at his assists/tos.

Like you, if I had the choice to pick between the 2 PGs, I'd pick Russell because of his scoring threat. Mudiay has a higher ceiling because of his physcis.

dude12 · May 24, 2015

bajaden said:

For gods sake man, because I don't share your enthusiasm for your beloved Stauskas, you get all butt hurt. The jury is out on Stauskas but they could have traded down and gotten him or if he was gone, gotten a Rodney Hood.

I don't share your enthusiasm for Kaminsky. I've seen him play. Good college player, just like Stauskas. It's not about who he has outplayed in college, it's about how a guy is goingto play at the next level....you know that, your knowledgeable. Id rather have the athletic 7 footer who can defend in WCS....I'm just not so sure he's going to be there. I think there's a chance Mudiay could fall if the Knicks take WCS and Orlando deems Payton their PG. Porzingas is a wildcard at picks 4-5 as is Winslow.

Back to Kaminsky, I'd trade down and take him if that is the pick. If your calling him a rookie of the year candidate, I'm not buying it right now.

Gilles · May 24, 2015

Kaminski is not getting on the floor a lot for a good team as a rookie for defensive purposes.

Albatros · May 25, 2015

Outside of the obvious need for an athletic shotblocker (wcs) we also desperately need shot creators, people who can actually handle the ball on the wing or from the two spot.

Way too many late shot clock situations where rudy or Ben cough up the ball because they can't handle.

Gilles · May 25, 2015

Getting back Darren would relieve Rudy of some shot-creating duties, and push Ben back into compact role offensively.
Bench need at least one such player (and it will likely be only one due to a lack of resources), who can also defend decently.

lawlman91 · May 25, 2015

Nik Stauskas is naturally a shot creator, mostly on the pick and roll. He's shown some signs, not enough yet, of that skill translating into the NBA. He should have ball-handling duties.

lawlman91 · May 25, 2015

We have to note that a big factor that determines rookie success is the style of offense/defense that their NBA coach applies. That new style, therefore, isn't necessarily the style that allowed that prospect to shine.

randymoss1881 · May 25, 2015

Albatros said:

1. Shot blocker
2. Shooting
3. Shooting
4. Shooting

bajaden · May 25, 2015

Gilles said:

On this I agree, but it's likely he won't get drafted by a good team. I get upset when people just out of hand discard a player. He was the fifth most effective player in college last season. I guess I don't understand the logic by some people that are on board with Mudiay, who they haven't even seen play, but discard Kaminsky who was one of the best players in college last year. Make no mistake, I want Cauley-Stein. All I'm trying to do is bring a little sanity to the conversation.

bajaden · May 25, 2015

dude12 said:

First off, my love for any player is based on a lot of evaluation. There were players in the last draft that I would have preferred, but they were gone by the time we picked. At that point, I liked either Stauskas or Payton, and I would have been happy with either choice. I leaned toward Stauskas because I didn't think we were in dire need of a PG, and we did need shooting. As for Kaminsky, you discard him, but don't really say why. You say you don't care what he did against college competition, a statement that makes little sense, but you only care what he'll do at the next level. So do you have a crystal ball that I don't have that lets you know that Kaminsky isn't going to be any good at the next level, even if he was the 5th most effective player in college last season, took his team to the championship game, out played every other big man he faced throughout the season, and may be the most skilled big man in the draft. My first choice is Cauley-Stein, and I think he'll be there. All I was saying that you can't just ignore what kaminsky accomplished this past season. And I'm not saying I'll be crushed if we don't draft him. There are other players that I would consider as well.

As far as rookie of the year goes, he'll have a chance to be in the running if he gets on a team that has to give him decent minutes. I didn't say he would win. More often than not, ROY is won by a PG, or a player that's going to play significant minutes and touch the ball a lot.

bajaden · May 25, 2015

Here's an article on Mudiay that's interesting.

http://upsidemotor.com/2015/04/13/e...2015-mock-towns-okafor-russell-cba-guangdong/

dude12 · May 25, 2015

bajaden said:

I think you are giving some or many members very little credit in their evaluations, and I don't believe you are doing this maliciously as its not your MO. But here's some reasons on why some of the members and people like Mudiay. Going strictly off the Draftexpress breakdown video, Mudiay's potential is in part due to his size and physical tools. He's 6'5" and 200 lbs. those are significant as he's not undersized for that position and in fact that size would be coveted. The other significant number is his age. He's 19. He mostly held his own across seas at that age. That in itself is very important. And the draft is based on trying to get a star if possible. When you pick where the Kings pick, you must, repeat must go for the potential star. It's why last year, I was hoping that Sac took Payton as he was at a premium position with elite size at that position. And the jury is out on how good the kid can be as it is on Stauskas.

For me Kaminsky's a 22 year old who will never be a star....same as Stauskas.....but they could be solid rotation guys if things work out for them. But my philosophy is you should be drafting for the potential star where the Kings pick and if said pick doesn't become a star, then hopefully, you still have a solid rotational player.

Gilles · May 25, 2015

bajaden said:

Oh, Mudiay is not getting on the floor for a PO team either. People look at him and say, he moves like Tyreke or JRue, when they drew comparisons to thier current athletic ability. Tyreke was really fast coming into the league, and Jrue was shifty and springy.

rainmaker · May 25, 2015

bajaden said:

I've come to my conclusion through my regular Pagan ritualistic activities. I can't control the vision which follows.

And I realize I'm being a smartass here. Will give a better answer later.

206Fan · May 25, 2015

rainmaker said:

witchcraft!!!!!

bajaden · May 25, 2015

dude12 said:

I agree that it's unlikely that Kaminsky will be a star, but you never know. I don't know if you remember when Nowitski came into the league, and what his first year at Dallas looked like, but he almost got booed off the floor and ran out of town. So as I said, you never know. Nowitski wasn't known for his athleticism. Neither was Pau Gasol. Point being, you never know who is going to be a star for sure. Thomas Robinson was a terrific athlete. So is McLemore, and Ben may end up being a star someday. I leave it to others to speculate on that.

All I've seen of Mudiay is whatever film I could find on the internet. Youtube is good at showing you what a player can do, but not what a player can't do. I've read Draftexpress, and I also subscribe to several scouting publications, and follow a lot of college and NBA scourts. In general they all like Mudiay and his upside, but he's not without flaws. His shooting is suspect for one thing, and, I'll admit, that I'm a stickler when it comes to shooting. I base a lot of it on a players form, and Mudiay's leaves a lot to be desired at times. My experience is, and I've been doing it for some time, is that the majority of players with bad form, and an apparent lack of touch on the ball, never become good shooters. The rule is, if their good freethrow shooters, it shows promise. However from everything I've read, he's not a good freethrow shooter either. That doesn't bode well for a team that lacks outside shooting.

The scouting report on him is that he doesn't always see the floor well, and that he has a tendecy to over dribble. He's an excellent ballandler, but in the one single game I was able to watch, I noticed that any time he drove to the basket, he was totally right handed. Not that big a deal. None of these things are on the surface, and they're all correctable, but how ready is he to step in and run the team right now? The two hardest positions in the NBA are PG and Center, with PG taking the most time to learn. It took Steve Nash five years, and at least Nash could shoot the ball. I didn't like Rubio because he couldn't shoot, and he still can't. The main reason I didn't like Marcus Smart was because he couldn't shoot, and he still can't. Although I'll cut him some slack after only one year. Some players never become good shooters, and some, like Kidd finally figure it out after 5 or 6 years in the league. Shooting may not be that big a deal to you and that's fine, but it is a big deal to me. If you can't shoot, they don't guard you. They go under the pick on the pick and roll, and don't bother defending you. It affects how good a PG you can be. Especially in the NBA.

None of what I just said means that Mudiay won't be a superstar. But it's always a good idea to see the whole picture when your making your evaluation. If we end up drafting Mudiay I'll certainly support him and hope he becomes a star. And I never meant to imply that your opinion wasn't as good as mine. Both are worth what you pay for them. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go back and continue staring at an image posted by Rainmaker. I'm convinced that it holds an important secret.

bajaden · May 25, 2015

rainmaker said:

Absolutely mesmerizing.......We must draft Mudiay, we must draft Mudiay, we must draft Mudiay, we must draft Mudiay, we must draft Mudiay......................

HndsmCelt · May 25, 2015

rainmaker said:

I support BOTH Pagan Ritual AND drafting Mudiay if he is still on the board at the 6 pick

Sac.1989 · May 25, 2015

bajaden said:

I feel like he'll easily slip to us with WCS taken either 4 or 5

Spike · May 25, 2015

HndsmCelt said:

Pagan rituals didn't work during the lottery... just sayin '.

hrdboild · May 25, 2015

bajaden said:

There's two things I don't like about this particular analysis.

(1) It sounds like he never watched Mudiay play in HS. The entirety of his pro and con assessment stems from a 12 game sample. Most of that time Mudiay was a sixth man of sorts for them and he was adjusting to a new language and a new team. I don't disregard anything that happened in China, but I've had a lot of success in the past by rating the HS and college careers of prospects equally when they're one and done, which Mudiay effectively was. Amongst his peers, Mudiay had a lot of success controlling the tempo and attacking the basket. In China he struggled finishing inside but a teenager going against full grown professional athletes should be expected to struggle with physicality, at least initially. I was impressed how quickly he adjusted. Early in the season he was borderline out of control in the paint and before the injury ended his season he was already getting better at elevating in traffic, waiting for contact and then attempting to finish the shot. One of the big things I look for is quick learning curves. Both Mudiay and Johnson impress me a lot in that area.

(2) He's one of the writers who still thinks we made a mistake trading Isaiah Thomas. I get that the stats are impressive and he looks the part of a B level star at times, but anyone who watched the Kings last season consistently knows that IT was hurting us with his shot selection and his need to be "the man" when a wiser player would have conceded that role to the big man, as Collison did this year. If this writer is going to chuck in a little aside at the end of his article about Collison being decent this year and giving up on IT being a blunder, it calls into question for me, as a Kings fan, the trustworthiness of anything else he has to say.

The two points taken together tell me this is a surface level analysis and isn't going to tell me anything I don't already know about Mudiay. It's clear why the jumpshot is inconsistent, he shoots on the way down. His release point on his pull-up jumper and set shot are in two different places. Every team in the league has somebody on their staff who can help him with that, it's mostly a matter of will he put in the work, and not just the minimum of what's required of him. Thats why you do interviews to see where his head is at. On physical tools, skill level, and understanding of the game I see no reason why he won't be a star in the NBA if he wants to be. But it can't just be a "oh that would be neat". Not in the NBA. If he wants it bad enough though, and he ends up in the right team situation, he should get there.

IfAt1st · May 25, 2015

As I mentioned in the previous WCS thread, I get really good vibes about Kaminsky.
I just don;t see how someone with his steel of nerves, ability to come through in the clutch, and BBIQ won't be successful in the NBA.
My gut tells me he's one of the more sure-bets of the draft, actually. Not to be a superstar, but to be a solid successful NBA player for years to come.
I'd feel better about getting him than a guy who played 12 games in China with a season-ending injury in-between....(especially if we could trade down and get value back by trading our #6 for a #10-12 and get Frank)

Chupacabra · May 26, 2015

I was alot more enthusiastic about Mudiay before i watched his draftexpress video. He cant shoot. At all.

dude12 · May 26, 2015

If WCS and Mudiay are off the board, I'm looking at Winslow which would set in motion deals involving Ben and/or Nik. I think there is great potential with Winslow but I'd want to know that we are getting a vet SG before turning that SG over to young guys again.

Better yet, I'd deal that pick if WCS or Mudiay are off the board.

206Fan · May 26, 2015

dude12 said:

Main difference between Ben and Winslow: one is a shooter, and one CAN be a shooter. Both aren't really good attackers.. they can only attack in a straight line drive. I think ball handling, they're the same(maybe Winslow has a slight edge), but Winslow has the better feel and he makes brighter decisions with the ball.

Ben's passive play hurts him where as Winslow lives off of it.

I feel like Ben can be a very special player soon, but his skillset is very similar to Winslow. Winslow is a better defender at this current stage which might be something the FO is looking at.Maybe we trade Ben because he's a 3 and D player just like Winslow?

Or maybe we trade Stauskas because Ben looked better than him last season? I think if we draft Winslow, we absolutely have to trade Ben or Nik.

The only problem is neither will net us back much. There aren't many teams in the NBA in need of a SG aside from a few. Most teams don't have much value on the trading block.. we'd be at a very sucky place.

Question. What would it take to dump Landry's contract?

Gary · May 26, 2015

206Fan said:

Not a huge McLemore fan. He did better this year, but I remember reading up on stats in another thread that ranked him as still being one of the worst starting SGs in the league. It doesn't surprise me, he really doesn't give us much of anything, and I would be happy to rid ourselves of him if the chance arose.

Kingster · May 26, 2015

Gilles said:

The safe assumption is that no rookie would start, regardless of whether it's any of the guards or WCS. The question then becomes, what does that rookie do for the bench, which as Funky reminds us, is "gawdawful"?

Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

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