NBA Draft Lottery

[See_Hanks]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526738549369753600

wow

You would think we would be a better team with all that draft luck NOPE! We still suck. Meanwhile Phoenix has rebuilt 3 times and become playoff teams on all three and we're still working on our first rebuild from 2004... 18 years and counting on our rebuild..

 

[See_Hanks]

I would call the Suns trade the 4th pick and salary fillers for Ayton. He would be perfect on this team.

Oh heck no. I would never want a guy with his attitude on this team. Especially if we keep losing. This last blowup was not his first. There is something about people just quitting when they are a win away from the finals that just irks me.

 

[The_Jamal]

I see some parallels between Wagner and Murray. Both Sophmores who greatly improved their second year, late growth spurt and of similar size, both played in the big ten, had poor (for them) games to end their college careers, viewed as having limited upside and a relatively safe pick. Neither known as shot creators but both considered high IQ.

obviously they are totally different players and skill sets but interesting nonetheless

Same with Hali too. "Low ceiling, high floor, smart player, does everything well, but nothing great, ok athlete" and just comes into the NBA and is a high-level starter by year 2 that certainly has some potential all-star appearances in his future. A lot of the same generalizations just liberally being applied to Murray.

Scottie Barnes is a little more unique because of his passing and defensive versatility, but same idea. Big wing 3/4 flex guys with excellent on-ball skills/creation, good physical profile are hard to find. Murray is more scoring oriented than Franz or Scottie, but I see a lot of similar traits that make those dudes foundational high end starters for the next 10+ years.

 

[AleksandarN]

Oh heck no. I would never want a guy with his attitude on this team. Especially if we keep losing. This last blowup was not his first. There is something about people just quitting when they are a win away from the finals that just irks me.

It was the cheap ass Suns owner that didn't want to pay a top 5 center. This is on them. Ayton carried himself as well as anyone didn't complain all season . Then Monte singled him out when all other Sun's players crapped the bed. They didn't utilize him all post season.

 

[SacTownKid]

Same with Hali too. "Low ceiling, high floor, smart player, does everything well, but nothing great, ok athlete" and just comes into the NBA and is a high-level starter by year 2 that certainly has some potential all-star appearances in his future. A lot of the same generalizations just liberally being applied to Murray.

Scottie Barnes is a little more unique because of his passing and defensive versatility, but same idea. Big wing 3/4 flex guys with excellent on-ball skills/creation, good physical profile are hard to find. Murray is more scoring oriented than Franz or Scottie, but I see a lot of similar traits that make those dudes foundational high end starters for the next 10+ years.

I agree as for being a starter but that's the thing Murray is missing though, the play making. I'll say it again, if he had shown those he'd be number 1 probably. If you can run pick and roll you are almost guaranteed to live up to your potential because the game is so broken defensively.

We'll see what kind of improvements Haliburton makes physically because if he can't physically break through defenses or start finishing through contact he's going to hit his ceiling sooner. Say what you will about the shooting, but this is what would separate a Fox/Ivey duo from a Fox/Haliburton one. The next time Hali throws it down over and/or through the defense like Ivey it will be the first time. And the 2 times I watched him try he broke his wrist once and nearly did the other time when he was sent away into space by a bigger body.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Lack of size and a floor game relative to positional value is an actual thing.

Lack of first hand knowledge and regurgitating what you’ve read or heard others say are “things” too.

SMH at those of you foolishly believing you can read a mix of assessment reports, watch highlight mix videos and scour stats to determine a players future and fit with a team.

 

[SacTownKid]

Lack of first hand knowledge and regurgitating what you’ve read or heard others say are “things” too.

SMH at those of you foolishly believing you can read a mix of assessment reports, watch highlight mix videos and scour stats to determine a players future and fit with a team.

What are you talking about? I don't think there are any truly bad fits in the top 10 this year for the Kings. And those are some of the exact things you do to make determinations so I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not hahaha.

 

[kb02]

Same with Hali too. "Low ceiling, high floor, smart player, does everything well, but nothing great, ok athlete" and just comes into the NBA and is a high-level starter by year 2 that certainly has some potential all-star appearances in his future. A lot of the same generalizations just liberally being applied to Murray.

Scottie Barnes is a little more unique because of his passing and defensive versatility, but same idea. Big wing 3/4 flex guys with excellent on-ball skills/creation, good physical profile are hard to find. Murray is more scoring oriented than Franz or Scottie, but I see a lot of similar traits that make those dudes foundational high end starters for the next 10+ years.

The biggest difference between Hali, Barnes, and Murray is the connecting, Hali and Barnes are connectors while Murray is a scorer. His three point shooting is his biggest plus, but I’m not sold on his straight line bullying and interior low post bullying. Against bigger, taller defenders, I dont see the same efficiency and think he’ll be average, at best, in either area. I don’t think he’ll be an elite player unless his handles jump two levels or he provides Draymond like defense with his Barnes like offense.

 

[kb02]

What are you talking about? I don't think there are any truly bad fits in the top 10 this year for the Kings. And those are some of the exact things you do to make determinations so I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not hahaha.

What he means is everyone, but himself is unable to make determinations based on reports, videos, and watching the player on tv.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

What are you talking about? I don't think there are any truly bad fits in the top 10 this year for the Kings. And those are some of the exact things you do to make determinations so I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not hahaha.

I’m talking about your comments/ssessment of Murray throughout this thread. Pretty clearly.

As for your last comment, when have I admitted to not having extensively followed players/teams yet make determinations and argue against others as you do?

Answer: I haven’t.

 

[krylia sovetov]

murray or sharpe, should be our choice


above all attributes, essential thing i love about murrray

He just makes smart plays, rarely committing mistakes. He knows when to give it up, too, which is an important skill.

about sharpe

Willing passer who shows an effort to weaponize his scoring. He’s a score-first player, but passes like those signal that he wants to make his teammates better.

the question marks about murray

Lacks significant experience playing against high-level competition that could expose his flaws.

about sharpe

Sharpe didn’t play basketball at Kentucky, electing to sit out the year to better prepare for next season. He already lacked significant big-game exposure in high school

 

[steelevt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526678764998086656

We gotta trust monte to make the right pick based on his history. There’s a reason why they’re gms and not journalists mocking drafts. (Or randoms posting on the internet )

 

[ockingsfan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526678764998086656

We gotta trust monte to make the right pick based on his history. There’s a reason why they’re gms and not journalists mocking drafts. (Or randoms posting on the internet )

Knowing that the NBA is wing and guard dominated, I’d expect one of those “Consensus Top 3” to be available to the Kings at #4. Either Ivey, Murray or Sharpe will probably be taken top 3. The question is, do we let the big man drop past us or do we take them?

IMHO, I would take either Murray or Sharpe at #4 and pass on the falling big.

 

[funkykingston]

Knowing that the NBA is wing and guard dominated, I’d expect one of those “Consensus Top 3” to be available to the Kings at #4. Either Ivey, Murray or Sharpe will probably taken top 3. The question is, do we let them drop past us or do we take them?

IMHO, I would take either Murray or Sharpe at #4 and pass on the falling big.

We'll see. Smith and Banchero make a lot of sense for the Magic and Thunder respectively. If those two are off the board, I'm not sure which direction the Rockets go. Ivey isn't a great fit with Jalen Green (or Porter Jr, if he's part of the long term plan) so I could see them taking Sharpe, Holmgren, or Murray.

I don't see McNair taking Sharpe. If he's been given marching orders to turn the team around quickly, it's tough to gamble on a kid that not only didn't play a college game, but didn't really face elite competition in HS. He may end up being a star, but it's going to take him a lot of time to adjust to the NBA. Of course, that's part of the reason it's a bad idea to have your GM in a lame duck status with the goal of "playoffs or bust". I have no idea how good Sharpe can be, but if McNair is forced to look past a kid he thinks could be a star for someone more ready today, that's an issue.

If Holmgren is there at 4 he may have to be the pick. I don't know that he and Sabonis can make it work (Chet sacrificed some of his game to defer to Timme and it wasn't an incredibly natural pairing) or who guards big wings on the perimeter. And that's before even mentioning whether Holmgren's body can hold up to 82 games against NBA players.

But I think of the "consensus" top 3, he's the most likely to slip to 4. Unless he gets injured during the pre-draft process or some medical red flag pops up I think there's pretty close a zero chance that Jabari Smith Jr doesn't go top 3. Maybe a bit more of a chance for Banchero, but he's a good fit for all three teams in the top 3 as well.

 

[Section 101]

No to any player from Duke.

 

[midtowner]

I think there is a legit chance that Chet drops to #4. And I am very high on pairing him with Sabonis. Two skilled, unselfish players in the front court would be fun to watch.

I think Jabari is a lock at #1. Sliding him next to Wagner is just too easy.

I never know what OKC is going to do. Chet is probably the best fit - but if Presti thinks Sharpe or Ivey is a star - this may be the time for them to trade SGA for value (#4 anyone?).

Houston has Garuba and Sengun already. Porter is wild and can slot up to the 3. So I think everyone is in play. Ivey, Jalen Green and Porter together sound better to me than any other combo. I think Sharpe is the one guy they stay away from. I think Banchero and Sengun are too similar.

So - I could see a Smith, Sharpe, Ivey 1, 2, 3 where Chet falls. Or an Smith, Chet, Ivey 1, 2 3. And I don’t think you can play Banchero and Sabonis together.

Should be fun.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

No to any player from Duke.

I mean...If Banchero is still there when we pick...You would REALLY want Monte to pass him up for someone who will most likely be less effective on the defensive end, and less productive on the offensive end?

 

[Section 101]

I mean...If Banchero is still there when we pick...You would REALLY want Monte to pass him up for someone who will most likely be less effective on the defensive end, and less productive on the offensive end?

100% Duke produces more busts than any other school.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

100% Duke produces more busts than any other school.

100% Duke also produces more players drafted than any other school. I'm sorry, but if you're going to suggest avoiding a player from Duke because of your perceived increased likelihood of a bust, I'm not going to buy your logic.

 

[kb02]

100% Duke produces more busts than any other school.

I think perception has a lot to do with it. Tatum, Zion, Kyrie, Ingram kinda balances out Bagley, Okafor, and Parker. Plus Reddish, who's trending towards an average to above average career. About what you would expect for top 5 picks. Historically, the hit rate is 50/50 that you get an all star level or better player if you're drafting within the top 5.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Ivy-League/14/Duke/31/nba-draft

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Southeastern-Conference/8/Kentucky/258/nba-draft

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Pacific-12-Conference/7/UCLA/241/nba-draft

 

[ockingsfan]

We'll see. Smith and Banchero make a lot of sense for the Magic and Thunder respectively. If those two are off the board, I'm not sure which direction the Rockets go. Ivey isn't a great fit with Jalen Green (or Porter Jr, if he's part of the long term plan) so I could see them taking Sharpe, Holmgren, or Murray.

I don't see McNair taking Sharpe. If he's been given marching orders to turn the team around quickly, it's tough to gamble on a kid that not only didn't play a college game, but didn't really face elite competition in HS. He may end up being a star, but it's going to take him a lot of time to adjust to the NBA. Of course, that's part of the reason it's a bad idea to have your GM in a lame duck status with the goal of "playoffs or bust". I have no idea how good Sharpe can be, but if McNair is forced to look past a kid he thinks could be a star for someone more ready today, that's an issue.

If Holmgren is there at 4 he may have to be the pick. I don't know that he and Sabonis can make it work (Chet sacrificed some of his game to defer to Timme and it wasn't an incredibly natural pairing) or who guards big wings on the perimeter. And that's before even mentioning whether Holmgren's body can hold up to 82 games against NBA players.

But I think of the "consensus" top 3, he's the most likely to slip to 4. Unless he gets injured during the pre-draft process or some medical red flag pops up I think there's pretty close a zero chance that Jabari Smith Jr doesn't go top 3. Maybe a bit more of a chance for Banchero, but he's a good fit for all three teams in the top 3 as well.

If Holmgren drops to #4, I think the Kings should take him. IMHO, I can't see Holmgren drop past #3. I think it would be Banchero that would be the most likely to drop to us, in which case, I would stick to getting either Murray or Sharpe. Banchero seems to me to be stuck in tweener land. I see him as most likely to have a very average career out of the "consensus top 3".

Also, as far as fit next to Sabonis, I think Holmgren compliments Sabonis in his shot blocking ability and three point shooting. HB would have to play Small Forward full time for sure, but I think Holmgren at PF would fit just fine with the Fox-Ox combo.

 

[SLAB]

Parker’s legs fell off once he got into the NBA… that’s not really on Duke producing a bust, just bad luck instead of being bad like Okafor and Bagels.

 

[ESP47]

If Holmgren drops to #4, I think the Kings should take him. IMHO, I can't see Holmgren drop past #3. I think it would be Banchero that would be the most likely to drop to us, in which case, I would stick to getting either Murray or Sharpe. Banchero seems to me to be stuck in tweener land. I see him as most likely to have a very average career out of the "consensus top 3".

Also, as far as fit next to Sabonis, I think Holmgren compliments Sabonis in his shot blocking ability and three point shooting. HB would have to play Small Forward full time for sure, but I think Holmgren at PF would fit just fine with the Fox-Ox combo.

Why do you think Banchero is a tweener? He seems like a legitimate 4 to me with point forward skills.

My biggest concern with him is his shooting. His 3pt and FT percentages are both iffy. He's actually a solid shooter when he just catches and shoots without thinking about it but as soon as he pump fakes or hesitates, he shoots well below average.

 

[joemama]

If Ivey is BPA, then you take him.
If Detroit wants a pg so bad, then we hold out for Saddiq Bey.

Fox
DDV
Bey
Barnes
Sabonis

Ivey
Cade
Grant
5th pick (big that falls in draft)
Bagley

Wow, Detroit has some cr4ppy bigs.
Stone hands Dedmon
Bust Bagley
Player formerly known as Deandre Jordan

 

[sactowndog]

I agreed, I watched all the highlights and I like Ivey better. His footwork is amazing, he's like Ja Morant out there. I don't think Banchero still available at #4, I think he should be #1, he's so strong...he makes Holmgren looks like paper.

If you pick Ivy you have the Fox, Haliburton, Mitchell mess of a year ago. Plus you need a wing. I think, unless Sharpe goes before 4, you have to take the risk.

 

[joemama]

If you pick Ivy you have the Fox, Haliburton, Mitchell mess of a year ago. Plus you need a wing. I think, unless Sharpe goes before 4, you have to take the risk.

That "mess" turned into Sabonis, this time it can turn into a player like Bey.

 

[Section 101]

100% Duke also produces more players drafted than any other school. I'm sorry, but if you're going to suggest avoiding a player from Duke because of your perceived increased likelihood of a bust, I'm not going to buy your logic.

Besides Irving name one Duke player who was a key player on a championship team?

 

[sactowndog]

That "mess" turned into Sabonis, this time it can turn into a player like Bey.

Turning top 4 picks into players like Bey is why the Kings have sucked for so long. If you have a top 4 pick you should be swinging for an all-star. I would rather take Sochan than trade 4 for Bey or Grant.

 

[SLAB]

Turning top 4 picks into players like Bey is why the Kings have sucked for so long. If you have a top 4 pick you should be swinging for an all-star. I would rather take Sochan than trade 4 for Bey or Grant.

I’d be even more upset with a trade like that than taking Murray. Heck no. Absolutely not.

 

[funkykingston]

100% Duke produces more busts than any other school.

I think perception has a lot to do with it. Tatum, Zion, Kyrie, Ingram kinda balances out Bagley, Okafor, and Parker. Plus Reddish, who's trending towards an average to above average career. About what you would expect for top 5 picks. Historically, the hit rate is 50/50 that you get an all star level or better player if you're drafting within the top 5.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Ivy-League/14/Duke/31/nba-draft

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Southeastern-Conference/8/Kentucky/258/nba-draft

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Pacific-12-Conference/7/UCLA/241/nba-draft

Coach and play style also factor into things.

For better or worse Krzyzewski tends to feature his best players and make adjustments to help them succeed. Calipari on the other hand, tends to force players into the roles he wants them to play.

So on average I think Duke players can underperform relative to their draft spot. Coach K gave them a starring role on the college level and they may or may not be able to do the same in the NBA.

Kentucky players can often outperform relative to their draft spot because they often have some skills that they weren't able to feature while at Kentucky.

Each player is an individual, but their college experience does play a part in how ready (or not ready) they may be for the NBA. Certain systems will generally produce solid defenders or (like Syracuse) play primarily zone so those kids have a steeper learning curve to adjust on that side of the ball etc.