NBA Draft Lottery
- Thread starter QWERTYLICIOUS
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That is always a possibility before the actual draft. But, I was more so asking about the lottery itself, not necessarily what we will actually be doing on draft day.
Realizing that I could have, and should have, worded my question better, what I meant to ask, and what I am most interested in knowing, is what everyone PREDICTS our draft position to be at the conclusion of the lottery, knowing very well that the pick can be dealt at some point leading up to the actual draft.
Realizing that I could have, and should have, worded my question better, what I meant to ask, and what I am most interested in knowing, is what everyone PREDICTS our draft position to be at the conclusion of the lottery, knowing very well that the pick can be dealt at some point leading up to the actual draft.
If somehow the lottery wound up that way and the Magic did take Chet or Paulo #1, I think Jabari Smith is the the best fit for the Kings.
I am bearish on Smith's star potential but he'd be a day one floor spacer who wouldn't be awful defensively and has the ability to be good on that end.
Another option would be offering #2 to OKC for #6 and #12.
Based on Tankathon's mock the Kings could have Shaedon Sharpe and Tari Eason with those picks . . .
I am bearish on Smith's star potential but he'd be a day one floor spacer who wouldn't be awful defensively and has the ability to be good on that end.
Another option would be offering #2 to OKC for #6 and #12.
Based on Tankathon's mock the Kings could have Shaedon Sharpe and Tari Eason with those picks . . .
I am sorry, but I am pretty tired of this take that we have no lottery luck. We have had about the same type of lottery luck you would expect for a team in the lottery every year. We can't draft worth a damn, (last two years notwithstanding) but our recent lottery luck has been pretty average. In fact, the last time we moved down in the lottery was 2014, when we fell from 7 to 8, and drafted Stauskas.
2014- fell from 7 to 8, drafted Stauskas
2015- stayed at 6- drafted Willie
2016- stayed at 8 - traded down to 13 to draft Papa G
2017- moved up from 8 to 3 (and ultimately down to 5 because of the trade with Philly) - drafted Fox
2018- moved up from 7 to 2- drafted Bagley
2019- stayed at 14- no pick
2020- stayed at 12- drafted Tyrese
20210 stayed at 9- drafted Davion
So in the past 8 years we have moved up 25% of the time (2/8), moved down 12.5% of the time (1/8) and stayed put 62.5% of the time (5/8). That is actually pretty consistent with the actual odds, especially when you consider that we have never been positioned higher than 6th going into the lottery and routinely have pretty low odds of moving up (especially before they flattened the odds).
Our luck over the past 5 has been even better- moved up 2 times and stayed put 3 times. No move downs. So we've had better than average luck, especially for having the 7th, 8th, 9th, 12th, and 14th worst records those years.
So don't cry about luck; cry about what we've done with our relatively favorable or (at worst) neutral luck.
2014- fell from 7 to 8, drafted Stauskas
2015- stayed at 6- drafted Willie
2016- stayed at 8 - traded down to 13 to draft Papa G
2017- moved up from 8 to 3 (and ultimately down to 5 because of the trade with Philly) - drafted Fox
2018- moved up from 7 to 2- drafted Bagley
2019- stayed at 14- no pick
2020- stayed at 12- drafted Tyrese
20210 stayed at 9- drafted Davion
So in the past 8 years we have moved up 25% of the time (2/8), moved down 12.5% of the time (1/8) and stayed put 62.5% of the time (5/8). That is actually pretty consistent with the actual odds, especially when you consider that we have never been positioned higher than 6th going into the lottery and routinely have pretty low odds of moving up (especially before they flattened the odds).
Our luck over the past 5 has been even better- moved up 2 times and stayed put 3 times. No move downs. So we've had better than average luck, especially for having the 7th, 8th, 9th, 12th, and 14th worst records those years.
So don't cry about luck; cry about what we've done with our relatively favorable or (at worst) neutral luck.
Lottery luck would be defined as having greater odds to draft outside of the top 3, but moving up into the top 3. So, based on your logic, that's 25% of the time, which is not too bad at the end of the day, so I will give you that much.
But I am not buying your notion that "luck" is defined as staying put. There's nothing "lucky" about doing exactly what you're supposed to be doing to begin with.
I'm still crying.
But I am not buying your notion that "luck" is defined as staying put. There's nothing "lucky" about doing exactly what you're supposed to be doing to begin with.
I'm still crying.
I agree that saying put isn't good luck. I think it is neutral luck. But that is better than bad luck. I would say that moving into the top 4 today would be good luck, staying at 7 is neutral luck, falling to 8 is bad luck, falling to 9 is really bad luck, and falling to 10 is catastrophically bad luck. So my point is that we haven't had "bad" lottery luck in 8 years. Which maybe means we are due... [knocking wood everywhere...]
In the span that we’ve missed the playoffs (16 years), the Cavs have had THREE 1st overall picks, the T-Wolves 2, the Pels 2, and all of them have gone through multiple rebuilds while we’ve languished in the same one. To suck this long without ever managing to rise up to the 1st overall pick is quite the spate of bad luck, I’d say.
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