NBA Draft Lottery
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Same with Hali too. "Low ceiling, high floor, smart player, does everything well, but nothing great, ok athlete" and just comes into the NBA and is a high-level starter by year 2 that certainly has some potential all-star appearances in his future. A lot of the same generalizations just liberally being applied to Murray.
Scottie Barnes is a little more unique because of his passing and defensive versatility, but same idea. Big wing 3/4 flex guys with excellent on-ball skills/creation, good physical profile are hard to find. Murray is more scoring oriented than Franz or Scottie, but I see a lot of similar traits that make those dudes foundational high end starters for the next 10+ years.
Scottie Barnes is a little more unique because of his passing and defensive versatility, but same idea. Big wing 3/4 flex guys with excellent on-ball skills/creation, good physical profile are hard to find. Murray is more scoring oriented than Franz or Scottie, but I see a lot of similar traits that make those dudes foundational high end starters for the next 10+ years.
I agree as for being a starter but that's the thing Murray is missing though, the play making. I'll say it again, if he had shown those he'd be number 1 probably. If you can run pick and roll you are almost guaranteed to live up to your potential because the game is so broken defensively.
We'll see what kind of improvements Haliburton makes physically because if he can't physically break through defenses or start finishing through contact he's going to hit his ceiling sooner. Say what you will about the shooting, but this is what would separate a Fox/Ivey duo from a Fox/Haliburton one. The next time Hali throws it down over and/or through the defense like Ivey it will be the first time. And the 2 times I watched him try he broke his wrist once and nearly did the other time when he was sent away into space by a bigger body.
We'll see what kind of improvements Haliburton makes physically because if he can't physically break through defenses or start finishing through contact he's going to hit his ceiling sooner. Say what you will about the shooting, but this is what would separate a Fox/Ivey duo from a Fox/Haliburton one. The next time Hali throws it down over and/or through the defense like Ivey it will be the first time. And the 2 times I watched him try he broke his wrist once and nearly did the other time when he was sent away into space by a bigger body.
The biggest difference between Hali, Barnes, and Murray is the connecting, Hali and Barnes are connectors while Murray is a scorer. His three point shooting is his biggest plus, but I’m not sold on his straight line bullying and interior low post bullying. Against bigger, taller defenders, I dont see the same efficiency and think he’ll be average, at best, in either area. I don’t think he’ll be an elite player unless his handles jump two levels or he provides Draymond like defense with his Barnes like offense.
We gotta trust monte to make the right pick based on his history. There’s a reason why they’re gms and not journalists mocking drafts. (Or randoms posting on the internet
)
IMHO, I would take either Murray or Sharpe at #4 and pass on the falling big.
We'll see. Smith and Banchero make a lot of sense for the Magic and Thunder respectively. If those two are off the board, I'm not sure which direction the Rockets go. Ivey isn't a great fit with Jalen Green (or Porter Jr, if he's part of the long term plan) so I could see them taking Sharpe, Holmgren, or Murray.
I don't see McNair taking Sharpe. If he's been given marching orders to turn the team around quickly, it's tough to gamble on a kid that not only didn't play a college game, but didn't really face elite competition in HS. He may end up being a star, but it's going to take him a lot of time to adjust to the NBA. Of course, that's part of the reason it's a bad idea to have your GM in a lame duck status with the goal of "playoffs or bust". I have no idea how good Sharpe can be, but if McNair is forced to look past a kid he thinks could be a star for someone more ready today, that's an issue.
If Holmgren is there at 4 he may have to be the pick. I don't know that he and Sabonis can make it work (Chet sacrificed some of his game to defer to Timme and it wasn't an incredibly natural pairing) or who guards big wings on the perimeter. And that's before even mentioning whether Holmgren's body can hold up to 82 games against NBA players.
But I think of the "consensus" top 3, he's the most likely to slip to 4. Unless he gets injured during the pre-draft process or some medical red flag pops up I think there's pretty close a zero chance that Jabari Smith Jr doesn't go top 3. Maybe a bit more of a chance for Banchero, but he's a good fit for all three teams in the top 3 as well.
I don't see McNair taking Sharpe. If he's been given marching orders to turn the team around quickly, it's tough to gamble on a kid that not only didn't play a college game, but didn't really face elite competition in HS. He may end up being a star, but it's going to take him a lot of time to adjust to the NBA. Of course, that's part of the reason it's a bad idea to have your GM in a lame duck status with the goal of "playoffs or bust". I have no idea how good Sharpe can be, but if McNair is forced to look past a kid he thinks could be a star for someone more ready today, that's an issue.
If Holmgren is there at 4 he may have to be the pick. I don't know that he and Sabonis can make it work (Chet sacrificed some of his game to defer to Timme and it wasn't an incredibly natural pairing) or who guards big wings on the perimeter. And that's before even mentioning whether Holmgren's body can hold up to 82 games against NBA players.
But I think of the "consensus" top 3, he's the most likely to slip to 4. Unless he gets injured during the pre-draft process or some medical red flag pops up I think there's pretty close a zero chance that Jabari Smith Jr doesn't go top 3. Maybe a bit more of a chance for Banchero, but he's a good fit for all three teams in the top 3 as well.
I think there is a legit chance that Chet drops to #4. And I am very high on pairing him with Sabonis. Two skilled, unselfish players in the front court would be fun to watch.
I think Jabari is a lock at #1. Sliding him next to Wagner is just too easy.
I never know what OKC is going to do. Chet is probably the best fit - but if Presti thinks Sharpe or Ivey is a star - this may be the time for them to trade SGA for value (#4 anyone?).
Houston has Garuba and Sengun already. Porter is wild and can slot up to the 3. So I think everyone is in play. Ivey, Jalen Green and Porter together sound better to me than any other combo. I think Sharpe is the one guy they stay away from. I think Banchero and Sengun are too similar.
So - I could see a Smith, Sharpe, Ivey 1, 2, 3 where Chet falls. Or an Smith, Chet, Ivey 1, 2 3. And I don’t think you can play Banchero and Sabonis together.
Should be fun.
I think Jabari is a lock at #1. Sliding him next to Wagner is just too easy.
I never know what OKC is going to do. Chet is probably the best fit - but if Presti thinks Sharpe or Ivey is a star - this may be the time for them to trade SGA for value (#4 anyone?).
Houston has Garuba and Sengun already. Porter is wild and can slot up to the 3. So I think everyone is in play. Ivey, Jalen Green and Porter together sound better to me than any other combo. I think Sharpe is the one guy they stay away from. I think Banchero and Sengun are too similar.
So - I could see a Smith, Sharpe, Ivey 1, 2, 3 where Chet falls. Or an Smith, Chet, Ivey 1, 2 3. And I don’t think you can play Banchero and Sabonis together.
Should be fun.
I think perception has a lot to do with it. Tatum, Zion, Kyrie, Ingram kinda balances out Bagley, Okafor, and Parker. Plus Reddish, who's trending towards an average to above average career. About what you would expect for top 5 picks. Historically, the hit rate is 50/50 that you get an all star level or better player if you're drafting within the top 5.
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Ivy-League/14/Duke/31/nba-draft
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Southeastern-Conference/8/Kentucky/258/nba-draft
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Pacific-12-Conference/7/UCLA/241/nba-draft
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Ivy-League/14/Duke/31/nba-draft
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Southeastern-Conference/8/Kentucky/258/nba-draft
https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Pacific-12-Conference/7/UCLA/241/nba-draft
If Holmgren drops to #4, I think the Kings should take him. IMHO, I can't see Holmgren drop past #3. I think it would be Banchero that would be the most likely to drop to us, in which case, I would stick to getting either Murray or Sharpe. Banchero seems to me to be stuck in tweener land. I see him as most likely to have a very average career out of the "consensus top 3".
Also, as far as fit next to Sabonis, I think Holmgren compliments Sabonis in his shot blocking ability and three point shooting. HB would have to play Small Forward full time for sure, but I think Holmgren at PF would fit just fine with the Fox-Ox combo.
Also, as far as fit next to Sabonis, I think Holmgren compliments Sabonis in his shot blocking ability and three point shooting. HB would have to play Small Forward full time for sure, but I think Holmgren at PF would fit just fine with the Fox-Ox combo.
Why do you think Banchero is a tweener? He seems like a legitimate 4 to me with point forward skills.
My biggest concern with him is his shooting. His 3pt and FT percentages are both iffy. He's actually a solid shooter when he just catches and shoots without thinking about it but as soon as he pump fakes or hesitates, he shoots well below average.
My biggest concern with him is his shooting. His 3pt and FT percentages are both iffy. He's actually a solid shooter when he just catches and shoots without thinking about it but as soon as he pump fakes or hesitates, he shoots well below average.
If Ivey is BPA, then you take him.
If Detroit wants a pg so bad, then we hold out for Saddiq Bey.
Fox
DDV
Bey
Barnes
Sabonis
Ivey
Cade
Grant
5th pick (big that falls in draft)
Bagley
Wow, Detroit has some cr4ppy bigs.
Stone hands Dedmon
Bust Bagley
Player formerly known as Deandre Jordan
If Detroit wants a pg so bad, then we hold out for Saddiq Bey.
Fox
DDV
Bey
Barnes
Sabonis
Ivey
Cade
Grant
5th pick (big that falls in draft)
Bagley
Wow, Detroit has some cr4ppy bigs.
Stone hands Dedmon
Bust Bagley
Player formerly known as Deandre Jordan
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Coach and play style also factor into things.
For better or worse Krzyzewski tends to feature his best players and make adjustments to help them succeed. Calipari on the other hand, tends to force players into the roles he wants them to play.
So on average I think Duke players can underperform relative to their draft spot. Coach K gave them a starring role on the college level and they may or may not be able to do the same in the NBA.
Kentucky players can often outperform relative to their draft spot because they often have some skills that they weren't able to feature while at Kentucky.
Each player is an individual, but their college experience does play a part in how ready (or not ready) they may be for the NBA. Certain systems will generally produce solid defenders or (like Syracuse) play primarily zone so those kids have a steeper learning curve to adjust on that side of the ball etc.
For better or worse Krzyzewski tends to feature his best players and make adjustments to help them succeed. Calipari on the other hand, tends to force players into the roles he wants them to play.
So on average I think Duke players can underperform relative to their draft spot. Coach K gave them a starring role on the college level and they may or may not be able to do the same in the NBA.
Kentucky players can often outperform relative to their draft spot because they often have some skills that they weren't able to feature while at Kentucky.
Each player is an individual, but their college experience does play a part in how ready (or not ready) they may be for the NBA. Certain systems will generally produce solid defenders or (like Syracuse) play primarily zone so those kids have a steeper learning curve to adjust on that side of the ball etc.