Mock Draft

Gary said:
A few of those weren't "projects" though. KG, Stoudemire, and Howard weren't. Bynum, and Chandler were.

Look, just pointing out that projects have the higher ceiling, but fail to contribute more so than a player that has multiple skills. Petrie tends to draft the skilled players. In fact the only time I seen him draft a project for the Kings was Wallace, and that was when we had one of the best records in the league, and could take the chance.
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KG and Stoudemire were preps to pros and labeled major projects. Why do you think Joe Smith went first in a weak draft over KG and Amare slipped to 11th? KG didn't really blossim into a star for a few years in the NBA because he had a lot to learn. Howard was another guy who had tremendous raw talent and was a great rebounder/shotblocker but is just now developing into an offensive force. Those guys are the poster boys for projects gone right.

Dont get me wrong there are plenty of examples of the opposite (Curry, Ty Thomas, Saene, Darko, Skitishvilli?). Im just saying most of the star big men in the league are elite athletes. Drafting an average athlete is almost a guarantee not to get a star. Now if we feel we have the star power on the team already to simply continue adding average but solid guys and get to contention then Love is a great pick. I simply beleive this team needs more start power.

I think to get a star big you generally need to take a project who is slipping (amare,Bynum) or have a high high pick (Yao/Howard/Aldridge). Since we don't have a high pick, if we want a stud big we need to gamble on a project. If we want a safer shot at a star who is athletic and polished we need to draft small since we are sitting in the late lottery. This would probly mean someone from the deep and athletic PG crop.
 
as a side note I've said before I agree with Gary that there's a high high chance Kevin Love ends up a King if he is available (boy I hope he isn't available). I don't think GP would pass on him. I think given what GP has said about Gerald we won't see GP pick athletic projects much anymore.
 
Technically everyone is a project. The HS players were labeled as almost sure things coming out of HS. The HS players that weren't were usually sitting in the green room until the end of the first round.

I just don't consider the talent they had as project players because they missed a year of college (thank god for that BTW making players go to college for a year).

Anyhow, I see what you are talking about re: the high ceiling and taking chances, but I am still a skilled player kind of guy. I used to want only the raw, but after seeing int he last few years the failure rate I am "safe and steady".
 
A funny thing is that most people want a player who can lead the Kings to a winning record right now. Since it's pretty obvious the Kings won't be getting a super high draft pick, I don't think that a draft pick will turn the Kings around in one season. Therefore, I think the Kings should draft another young player/work in progress who has potential like Hawes or Gerald Wallace. Combined with the salary cap issues because of "bad contracts" I don't see the Kings making a turnaround this off season (of course, I'd love to see a turnaround).

In answering the opening question, I think Geoff Petrie will go overseas with a draft pick ala Peja or Hedo. Petrie is most likely going to disappear overseas after the season ends to do his scouting. There would be a "development time," for the drafted player but I think that would be a good thing since they will be maturing when the Kings do have flexibility to sign a big time free agent and have other young players coming into their prime.
 
Brinzotti said:
A funny thing is that most people want a player who can lead the Kings to a winning record right now. Since it's pretty obvious the Kings won't be getting a super high draft pick, I don't think that a draft pick will turn the Kings around in one season. Therefore, I think the Kings should draft another young player/work in progress who has potential like Hawes or Gerald Wallace. Combined with the salary cap issues because of "bad contracts" I don't see the Kings making a turnaround this off season (of course, I'd love to see a turnaround).

In answering the opening question, I think Geoff Petrie will go overseas with a draft pick ala Peja or Hedo. Petrie is most likely going to disappear overseas after the season ends to do his scouting. There would be a "development time," for the drafted player but I think that would be a good thing since they will be maturing when the Kings do have flexibility to sign a big time free agent and have other young players coming into their prime.
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the only two high picks from overseas are Batum, and Gallinari. The others are at best late first round. Plus those late first round intl players aren't Petrie players. Gallinari, and Batum are though.
 
Widowmaker2k said:
I played the ESPN mock lottery a few times and saw just how hard it would be for us to move up.
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Assuming we end up 12th, our chance of moving into the top three is 2.5%, and our chance of moving down to 13th (or 14th) is 4%. Otherwise we stay put. If we end up in 11th, our chance of moving into the top three goes up to 2.9%, but our chance of dropping increases to 6.4%

Except for the 14th slot (who can't move down) and the 13th slot, every team has a better probability of moving down than of moving up. The 1st-3rd slots have a better than 50% chance of moving down. The 4th and 5th slots are more likely to move down than stay put but have a less than 50% chance of moving down.

The Wikipedia article is helpful for anybody interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

It's a funny system.
 
Gary said:
the only two high picks from overseas are Batum, and Gallinari. The others are at best late first round. Plus those late first round intl players aren't Petrie players. Gallinari, and Batum are though.
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Yah, Batum is a Petrie type pick, but I can't imagine he would bring in another 2/3 unless there was another significant move made before the draft.

There are some interesting second round euros and I wouldn't be surprised if one of our second rounders was devoted to someone we could stash overseas.
 
ovrush said:
Yah, Batum is a Petrie type pick, but I can't imagine he would bring in another 2/3 unless there was another significant move made before the draft.

There are some interesting second round euros and I wouldn't be surprised if one of our second rounders was devoted to someone we could stash overseas.
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Yea, they may be uncomfortable taking a 3 without having a move tentatively in place by the draft; I don't see them shopping anyone until next trade deadline though. You never know with Petrie though, he took a 2 three drafts in a row.
 
couple of updates 4/25.

I looked at 15 mock drafts this morning (4/17), many reputable ones that generally aren't far off. But this year, those 15 mocks showed 11 different players for the Kings @ #12. Assuming the Kings don't make it into the top 3, here is the resulting list, in my order of probability:

Marreese Speights, 6-10 PF, Florida So.
Nicolas Batum, 6-8 SG/SF from France
Russell Westbrook, 6-3 PG from UCLA (note 4/25: he'll be gone by #12)
Donte Greene, 6-10 SF from Syracuse (2)
Danilo Gallinari, 6-9 SF from Italy
Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 SG from Memphis
Darrell Arthur, 6-10 F from Kansas
Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9 F, UNC (note: 4/25/08 going back to UNC)
Blake Griffin, 6-10 F, Oklahoma (note: 4/22 going back to OU)
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, Texas A&M
JaVale McGee, 7-0, Nevada-Reno

If one then takes a look at these same 15 mock drafts and their 13th selection, we add the following among others:

Kevin Love, 6-9, UCLA
D.J.Augustin, 5-11 PG, Texas
Chase Budinger, 6-7 SG, Arizona
Tywon Lawson, 6-0 PG, UNC
Anthony Randolph, 6-11 PF, LSU

So this year more than any other, a month before the draft there is virtually no concession of who the Kings should get. What do they know anyway? Not much, so its all entertainment at this point and discussion stimulation over a friendly beer. :cool:
 
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ovrush said:
What about other big athletic "projects" like Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, Tyson Chandler, KG. Admitedly, the odds of getting a bust when drafting an athlete is higher than in drafting a polished "safe" pick. But honestly unless you're picking in the top three you can't get an athletic polished big. I can't think of any big whose come out recently who was labeled as being a limited athlete who became a star. I don't think the Aldridge comparison works because he was always a pretty elite athlete.

For me, I just think taking a safe but average guy at the 12th pick when there are possible stars out there seems like a nice way to keep yourself mired in mediocrity. Teams need to have stars to progress. We have a borderline star in Kevin, if we surround him with solid but not spectacular guys do we really think that wil vault us into contention in the West given how strong it is?



Now there's no way anyone here is going to convince you that they know what kind of pro Klove will be. You already have your own perceptions. That being said, the easiest part of the debate is simply saying that a Kevin Love/Spencer Hawes starting frontcourt would simply aweful defensively in the NBA. They both offer limited shot blocking ability in the NBA, and have limited lateral quickness. Every team in the west has a star frontcourt player except the Kings and the Grizz.

You beleive Kevin Love will be a tremendous NBA rebounder. He could be, Sir Charles proved it can be done being undersized with poor jumping ability. It's going to be a challenge for him to be a solid rebounder night to night because he will be working from behind since he won't be out leaping anyone and he is shorter and slower than most of the guys he will be fighting for rebounds with. Additionally Spencer and Love have limited lateral quickness meaning off ball defense is going to be slow as well.
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I'm curious why you think that Hawes has bad or limited lateral quickness. What are you basing it on. If you watch him play he moves lateraly pretty darn well, and he runs the floor well. At the pre-draft camp he did pretty well in the lateral quickness drills. He fared better than other more notable players such as Durant and Holford, who both proved to have below average lateral quickness. His biggest weakness if you want to call it that is his hops. He's not a great leaper, but if your 7 feet tall, you don't have to jump very high to be effective. He's not an explosive leaper and that does hurt him some. I've watched him switch defensively on the pick and roll and push the pt guard out away from the key before switching back and not allowing the pt guard to round the corner. You can't do that without lateral quickness.
 
CruzDude said:
I looked at 15 mock drafts this morning (4/17), many reputable ones that generally aren't far off. But this year, those 15 mocks showed 11 different players for the Kings @ #12. Assuming the Kings don't make it into the top 3, here is the resulting list, in my order of probability:

Nicolas Batum, 6-8 SG/SF from France (picked by 3 mock drafts)
Russell Westbrook, 6-3 PG from UCLA (2)
Donte Greene, 6-10 SF from Syracuse (2)
Danilo Gallinari, 6-9 SF from Italy
Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 SG from Memphis
Darrell Arthur, 6-10 F from Kansas
Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9 F, UNC
Blake Griffin, 6-10 F, Oklahoma
Marreese Speights, 6-10 PF, Florida So.
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, Texas A&M
JaVale McGee, 7-0, Nevada-Reno

If one then takes a look at these same 15 mock drafts and their 13th selection, we add the following among others:

Kevin Love, 6-9, UCLA
D.J.Augustin, 5-11 PG, Texas
Chase Budinger, 6-7 SG, Arizona
Tywon Lawson, 6-0 PG, UNC
Anthony Randolph, 6-11 PF, LSU

So this year more than any other, a month before the draft there is virtually no concession of who the Kings should get. What do they know anyway? Not much, so its all entertainment at this point and discussion stimulation over a friendly beer. :cool:
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Well Griffin has said he's staying in school, so we can scratch him off our list. I think in a month or so, or after the pre-draft camp the lists will start making sense. I saw one mock draft that had us taking a two guard in the first round and the second round. Obviously, our current needs wern't taken into consideration. The first beer is on me by the way...


Ahhh, thats for just Cruzdude by the way. I just don't have the money for all of you..
 
Brinzotti said:
A funny thing is that most people want a player who can lead the Kings to a winning record right now. Since it's pretty obvious the Kings won't be getting a super high draft pick, I don't think that a draft pick will turn the Kings around in one season. Therefore, I think the Kings should draft another young player/work in progress who has potential like Hawes or Gerald Wallace. Combined with the salary cap issues because of "bad contracts" I don't see the Kings making a turnaround this off season (of course, I'd love to see a turnaround).

In answering the opening question, I think Geoff Petrie will go overseas with a draft pick ala Peja or Hedo. Petrie is most likely going to disappear overseas after the season ends to do his scouting. There would be a "development time," for the drafted player but I think that would be a good thing since they will be maturing when the Kings do have flexibility to sign a big time free agent and have other young players coming into their prime.
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Was reading an article by Hollinger on ESPN few weeks back, where he had mentioned that if the Euro continues to be strong against the Dollar, foreign players (coupled with the low rookie scale, particularly for secound round picks) shall have lesser incentives to come over to US. So picking foreign players carries the risk, that they might decide not to come over at all.
 
There is a PG that I am interested in.. In the second round nbamock.com has us taking Anton Ponkrashov. He is a 6'7 205lbs PG from Russia (good height for a PG).

There is also Goran Dragic who is 6'4 180lbs from Slovenia.. They are both interesting because they are NOT undersized. And I am sure they have the fundamentals because they are euro.
 
Gary said:
There is a PG that I am interested in.. In the second round nbamock.com has us taking Anton Ponkrashov. He is a 6'7 205lbs PG from Russia (good height for a PG).

There is also Goran Dragic who is 6'4 180lbs from Slovenia.. They are both interesting because they are NOT undersized. And I am sure they have the fundamentals because they are euro.
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From what i've read I think Dragic sounds very interesting. I'd be happy with that pick.

At this point I think the guy I wanted most will be gone by when we pick (Westbrook) so I'm pretty torn on what to do in the first round. All I can think is that GP always goes BPA when drafting in the late lottery. So after thinking on it I actually wouldn't be that surprised to see us wind up with eithe Batum or Gallinari regardless of how stuffed we are at the 2/3.
 
Gary said:
There is a PG that I am interested in.. In the second round nbamock.com has us taking Anton Ponkrashov. He is a 6'7 205lbs PG from Russia (good height for a PG).
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I saw Ponkrashov 8-10 times ... He is a good talented player with a serious experience already (Euro Champion, Euroleague Champion, Russian Superleague Champion, played for super monster - CSKA Moscow). I am sure he is going to be a great player because of his size, IQ, vision, skills. I heard that he has improved this season. But I think he is made for FIBA basketball because he likes slow and tactical basketball. May be I am wrong, but I can not see him playing in NBA.

Speaking about Russian PGs, I personally think that Shved is going to be a very interesting player. He is very tall also, very fast, very smart and VERY athletic. However, he is too young and raw for NBA draft.
 
CruzDude said:
I looked at 15 mock drafts this morning (4/17), many reputable ones that generally aren't far off. But this year, those 15 mocks showed 11 different players for the Kings @ #12. Assuming the Kings don't make it into the top 3, here is the resulting list, in my order of probability:

Nicolas Batum, 6-8 SG/SF from France (picked by 3 mock drafts)
Russell Westbrook, 6-3 PG from UCLA (2)
Donte Greene, 6-10 SF from Syracuse (2)
Danilo Gallinari, 6-9 SF from Italy
Chris Douglas-Roberts, 6-6 SG from Memphis
Darrell Arthur, 6-10 F from Kansas
Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9 F, UNC
Blake Griffin, 6-10 F, Oklahoma
Marreese Speights, 6-10 PF, Florida So.
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, Texas A&M
JaVale McGee, 7-0, Nevada-Reno

If one then takes a look at these same 15 mock drafts and their 13th selection, we add the following among others:

Kevin Love, 6-9, UCLA
D.J.Augustin, 5-11 PG, Texas
Chase Budinger, 6-7 SG, Arizona
Tywon Lawson, 6-0 PG, UNC
Anthony Randolph, 6-11 PF, LSU

So this year more than any other, a month before the draft there is virtually no concession of who the Kings should get. What do they know anyway? Not much, so its all entertainment at this point and discussion stimulation over a friendly beer. :cool:
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EXACTLY the point I had been trying to make.. Between about 8th or so and #14 there really isn't any kind of set order. That's one of the reasons why I love this years draft, and hate it at the same time. Also I guess it really didn't matter if we finished with the #11, or #12..

Anyhow, I believe still that it will be a PF UNLESS Westbrook is available at #12 or we get the top pick. A lot of people have forgot how well Westbrook played at the start of the year when Collison was injured. I got to see about 5-6 games with Westbrook and imo he is a better PG then Collison. No idea why they thrust Collison back into the ball handling duties so quickly upon returning. Collison is better at protecting the ball, but all around Westbrook is better, and would probably make a better NBA PG.

**AHEM** Speights would make a good pick! :)
 
We saw the same sort of disarray and disagreement between draft sites last year too, though. I think that 3/4 of those sites must be using their advertising proceeds to support their crack habits. Hansbrough a 12th pick, followed by Love at #13? They must be out of their friggin' minds.
 
hahah.. Now that's funny... Anyone want to help me write a real mock site? ;)

Hansbrough is at best a mid to late 20s pick and Love I am 99.999999% sure he will be a lottery pick.
 
Gary said:
hahah.. Now that's funny... Anyone want to help me write a real mock site? ;)

Hansbrough is at best a mid to late 20s pick and Love I am 99.999999% sure he will be a lottery pick.
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DraftExpress.com is a great site. It's not their fault that anyone can post a mock draft without any real content behind it and it appears that their opinion is equally valuable when it clearly isn't. No one knows who will be drafted where, but if you're scouting these players and keeping up on who's saying what and what teams are looking for then you can make a pretty good educated guess, especially the week of the draft. I doubt anyone can do a better job than they do at DraftExpress.
 
hrdboild said:
DraftExpress.com is a great site. It's not their fault that anyone can post a mock draft without any real content behind it and it appears that their opinion is equally valuable when it clearly isn't. No one knows who will be drafted where, but if you're scouting these players and keeping up on who's saying what and what teams are looking for then you can make a pretty good educated guess, especially the week of the draft. I doubt anyone can do a better job than they do at DraftExpress.
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Its about manpower. I feel I watch enough games (league pass, and Tivo every college game playing on TV with my many Tivos) to know what teams need, and which college players are good enough to make it in the NBA or at least give a valid rundown on college/NBA players. but to do it all alone? Heck no..

I probably couldn't run a site with a ton of content on my own. It would be too tough unless I did an RSS feed for the college news through USAToday/Rivals/ESPN/ect ect..

As for predicting I think pretty much most of us can do a reasonable job. My hobby during college season is to watch as many games as I can and write on the players.. I don't get paid for it,a nd I don't think I want to. But I have a good time doing it! So who wants a non paying job writing college player Bios?? :D
 
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BritishColumbia said:
I saw Ponkrashov 8-10 times ... He is a good talented player with a serious experience already (Euro Champion, Euroleague Champion, Russian Superleague Champion, played for super monster - CSKA Moscow). I am sure he is going to be a great player because of his size, IQ, vision, skills. I heard that he has improved this season. But I think he is made for FIBA basketball because he likes slow and tactical basketball. May be I am wrong, but I can not see him playing in NBA.

Speaking about Russian PGs, I personally think that Shved is going to be a very interesting player. He is very tall also, very fast, very smart and VERY athletic. However, he is too young and raw for NBA draft.
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Ponkrashov certainly has the experience thing going for him, but something that screams "Jiri Welsch" to me with him--he's fairly skilled, but he's not good at any one thing, and to compound matters he just doesn't have NBA athleticism or footspeed whatsoever. Maybe good for Europe, but for the NBA? I don't know. Another thing is that he's not getting much draft hype anymore--as with the case with quite a few European prospects (Tripkovic, Aleksandrov, Sakota etc.) they get hyped much early at a young age for several great games but they level off severely or face injury problems, but whatever the season they get pushed down the draft into almost becoming irrelevant. I think Ponkrashov is a casualty of that. He might be drafted because a team wants to rear a young player in Europe because their roster's full, or for saving $$$, but he's probably late 2nd round at best, honestly.
 
Arby's Roast Beef said:
Ponkrashov certainly has the experience thing going for him, but something that screams "Jiri Welsch" to me with him--he's fairly skilled, but he's not good at any one thing, and to compound matters he just doesn't have NBA athleticism or footspeed whatsoever. Maybe good for Europe, but for the NBA? I don't know. Another thing is that he's not getting much draft hype anymore--as with the case with quite a few European prospects (Tripkovic, Aleksandrov, Sakota etc.) they get hyped much early at a young age for several great games but they level off severely or face injury problems, but whatever the season they get pushed down the draft into almost becoming irrelevant. I think Ponkrashov is a casualty of that. He might be drafted because a team wants to rear a young player in Europe because their roster's full, or for saving $$$, but he's probably late 2nd round at best, honestly.
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Yes, you are right ... he is a product for Europe - similar to Papoloukas - may be, not that good :) - but similar - good vision, great size, basketball IQ and SLOW at the same time.

However, he was the best player in NBA Euro camp 2 years ago and last year, he was very good too. Obviously, he has more awards and accomplishments, and more experience than ANY OTHER player on the 08 Draft. So, I think he will be selected but IMHO he is just not an NBA type of player. He was made for Euroleague. Besides, if I am not mistaken, he wanna stay in Europe and play for CSKA again some day.
 
Here's a mock draft I made.

1.) Miami - Michael Beasley
2.) Seattle - Derrick Rose
3.) Minnesota - O.J. Mayo
4.) Memphis - Brook Lopez
5.) New York - Jerryd Bayless
6.) LA Clippers - Eric Gordon
7.) Milwaukee - Danilo Gallinari
8.) Charlotte - Kevin Love
9.) Chicago - Russell Westbrook
10.)New Jersey - DeAndre Jordan
11.)Indiana - D.J. Augustin
12.)Sacramento - Marreese Speights
13.)Portland - Nicolas Batum
14.)Golden State - Donte Greene
15.)Phoenix - JaVale McGee
16.)Philadelphia - Darrell Arthur
17.)Toronto - Chris Douglas-Roberts
18.)Washington - Roy HIbbert
19.)Cleveland - Chase Budinger
20.)Denver - Brandon Rush
21.)New Jersey - Anthony Randolph
22.)Orlando - Robin Lopez
23.)Seattle - Courtney Lee
24.)Utah - Joe Alexander
25.)San Antonio - Alexis Ajinca
26.)Houston - Serge Ibaka
27.)New Orleans - Ty Lawson
28.)Memphis - Hasheem Thabeet
29.)Detroit - Darren Collison
30.)Boston - Kyle Weaver
 
Gary said:
Its about manpower. I feel I watch enough games (league pass, and Tivo every college game playing on TV with my many Tivos) to know what teams need, and which college players are good enough to make it in the NBA or at least give a valid rundown on college/NBA players. but to do it all alone? Heck no..

I probably couldn't run a site with a ton of content on my own. It would be too tough unless I did an RSS feed for the college news through USAToday/Rivals/ESPN/ect ect..

As for predicting I think pretty much most of us can do a reasonable job. My hobby during college season is to watch as many games as I can and write on the players.. I don't get paid for it,a nd I don't think I want to. But I have a good time doing it! So who wants a non paying job writing college player Bios?? :D
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I have a bunch of worthless notes, if anyone wants them..
 
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