Miller: The Worst Defending Center in the NBA

[uopmatt]

How the hell can Brad even complain about the fans being fairweather?
How the hell does he allow a guy like Olowokandi who is averaging 4.3 points a game come in and light the kings up for 16. The same can be said of foyle who looked like a young Olajawon against Brad. And Morning is a decent player, much better in his youth, but the way he dominated on the inside against our center. One of the worst stat lines against Brad was when they played Toronto and Rafael Araujo (Who?) who hasn't scored more than 8 points any other game goes for 14 points and 6 rebounds both season highs. ANother career high night by Mark Jackson (Who does he play for?) when he had 21 points and 9 rebounds, also both season highs.
Lets face it. Until we can get someone who can guard the post better than Brad we are never going to shut someone down. We can even shut down average center. I'll take someone who can play a little defense over 5 assists and 50% shooting any day. There is no way we should have to be double teaming guys like Jackson to shut them down. I believe a move needs to be made. What do you guys think?

 

[kingsfan916]

Duh! Brad and the rest of the Kings are Offense only. If they had defense Webber would have been much happier

 

[Kings113]

"only"

k...

 

[6th]

For God's sake......how many threads about Brad and his play or his fair weathered fan comments do we need? Use the ones that are already in existence.

 

[kingsboi]

Brad Miller Played Terrible Last Night, True That...But You Can't Go And Blame The Guy And The Statement He Made May Even Be False, And If It Really Is True He Didn't Mean It...So Let The Guy Be And Let's Hopefully See Progress From Him, Which Won't Happen Most Likely, That's Why I Say Trade Him If He Does Not Make Progress And It's Simple As This: START KENNY THOMAS!!

 

[Vlad]

boo to this thread.

GO BRAD, GO KINGS

 

[D-Mass]

Geez...one comment that may or may not have been taken out of context but was certainly made in frustration and now Miller is the enemy of Kings fans. Sure, he's not the greatest defender in the world, but please...this is nuts.

 

[Bricklayer]

This is a different point form the comments Brad made. Or at least it is now -- the fairweather thing has gotten stupid.

On the main topic, Brad's defense HAS gotten completely pathetic. Its a fair enough topic. If he ends up leaving town its not going to be because of some stupid offhand comment, its going to be because we simply cannot stop anybody inside when Brad is in the game. He does a lot of things very well for us, but I just see no hope for him, or us with him, defensively. He has no answers to even the most basic post moves, let alone the help defense.

Actually in some ways such an open an s shut case I don't know exactly what you discuss in a topic dedicated to the matter. His defense sucks, just the way it is. See no real hope of improvement. So...what is there to say?

 

[ForlornKing]

On A better note,

SAR shut down Garnett

 

[D-Mass]

This is a different point form the comments Brad made. Or at least it is now -- the fairweather thing has gotten stupid.

On the main topic, Brad's defense HAS gotten completely pathetic. Its a fair enough topic. If he ends up leaving town its not going to be because of some stupid offhand comment, its going to be because we simply cannot stop anybody inside when Brad is in the game. He does a lot of things very well for us, but I just see no hope for him, or us with him, defensively. He has no answers to even the most basic post moves, let alone the help defense.

Actually in some ways such an open an s shut case I don't know exactly what you discuss in a topic dedicated to the matter. His defense sucks, just the way it is. See no real hope of improvement. So...what is there to say?

I agree, which is why I would not be surprised to see his time as a King cut short soon...but the coincidence of this thread appearing right after his comments is a bit too much to overlook.

 

[AleksandarN]

His defensive is very poor but another thing that worries me about Brad is his fortitude he always seems to break down every March. It is like his body can not hold up. The bigger problem who do we get to replace him if he does get moved?

 

[Bricklayer]

His defensive is very poor but another thing that worries me about Brad is his fortitude he always seems to break down every March. It is like his body can not hold up. The bigger problem who do we get to replace him if he does get moved?

Here's the deal I think -- Brad is the perfect Princeton center. And by perfect, I mean the epitome of the guy coachie invented the offense for. Brad's just a slightly bigger version of the types of guys an Ivy League coach could recruit. Shaq wasn't coming to Princeton, but a tall smart, horribly unatheltic kid willing to work on his shot might.

But the Princeton system in Sacto, even with Petrie as its patron saint, may be on the way out. When Rick goes who knows what replaces it? And I suspect if Rick goes, coachie will finally take that opportunity top retire back here to the East Coast as he has talked about for the last few years. If we stick with an assistant, or go with Porter, parts of it will remain. But it won't be the same and the new coach will either replace it or put his own stamp on it.

When that happens, Brad's value to us goes into steep decline. He' still one of the few overall quality centers in the league, but if the Princeton is cut back, he's no longer a unique entity as one of only a handful of big guys who can run our offense. In fact in a lot of offenses, his primary skills would be largely wasted. So if Rick goes, and the system after him, all of a sudden swapping out Brad becomes a much more practical and entirely possible exercise. All of a sudden there are all sorts of adequate possibilities.

 

[GoGoGadget]

the fairweather thing has gotten stupid.

Gotten?

 

[BMiller52]

Yeah he sucks on D. So does SAR, PEJA, AND MIKE.

This I think reminds me a lot of in Portland when Bonzi said something about not caring about the fans and that they'd still want their autograph(don't remember exactly what it was). Honestly, I don't think this is as bad as that or a big deal. You all are like OHMIGOD BRAD SAID SOME OF US ARE FAIRWEATHER FANS!? (bleep) HIM!

If you say that about a comment that wasn't directed TOWARDS YOU as a person than yeah, I guess the glove does fit. What we all need to do is show him we aren't fairweather fans by cheering him the next game. Don't boo. It's not something that happened a lot in ARCO during the past, give our players support. Yeah we want more effort but why should they even give us that now when we actin like we hate em?

 

[BigSong]

This is a different point form the comments Brad made. Or at least it is now -- the fairweather thing has gotten stupid.

On the main topic, Brad's defense HAS gotten completely pathetic. Its a fair enough topic. If he ends up leaving town its not going to be because of some stupid offhand comment, its going to be because we simply cannot stop anybody inside when Brad is in the game. He does a lot of things very well for us, but I just see no hope for him, or us with him, defensively. He has no answers to even the most basic post moves, let alone the help defense.

Actually in some ways such an open an s shut case I don't know exactly what you discuss in a topic dedicated to the matter. His defense sucks, just the way it is. See no real hope of improvement. So...what is there to say?

move him to the 4 and get a shot blockin center out of peja

 

[chrisforbes]

Vladioe 21 Could Do A Better Job

 

[nbrans]

Brad's defense is seriously alarming. I actually think that Peja and SAR have been playing average-to-good defense and Bonzi has been playing good defense, and overall the defensive effort is better than last season. But Brad's inability to both grab a board and guard normally-terrible centers is going to pose a major problem as long as he's on the roster. I don't think Brad's problem is lack of effort, he's just even less athletic since he broke his leg. Vlade could compensate for his lack of athleticism late in his career because he was 7'1". Brad's 6'11", and he just gets abused.

Brad's not getting any more athletic! I'd say his peak trade value is fast approaching...

 

[SacDoug]

When the Kings traded for him the buy line was that he would play defense and do the dirty work inside such as grab rebounds, block shots and post up. I guess one out of four isn't bad.

 

[Bricklayer]

When the Kings traded for him the buy line was that he would play defense and do the dirty work inside such as grab rebounds, block shots and post up. I guess one out of four isn't bad.

Hmmm...I never saw that byline, but if it was out there somebody should be sued for deceptive advertising. Brad has NEVER blocked shots or had a post game. Or even close really. But he used to be a solid rebounder -- no idea what the hell happened there. And there was an impression, perhaps false, that he might be a tough grumpy thuggish guy inside. I think that impression for me cememented by Shaq trying to kill him with that haymaker. But I have come to the conclusion over the last few years that Brad is basically a follower inside, and it was playing alongside Oak, and Artest, and J.O'Neal that both made him look better defensively than he was and perhaps made him display a tougher attitude. Think his defense was still weak, but think that maybe he was inspired by the people around him to at least lay somebody out. Let's just say that playing next to Peja + SAR, arguably the softest forward combo in the league, is more likely to inspire one to crochet than to knock somebody to the floor.

 

[Bricklayer]

Gotten?

Sure thang purty little lady!

 

[nbrans]

Let's just say that playing next to Peja + SAR, arguably the softest forward combo in the league, is more likely to inspire one to crochet than to knock somebody to the floor.

Ok, this is off topic, but I really think it's time to put the tired old SAR-is-soft thing to bed. The guy is not soft. He shut down your boy KG and he showed a ton of veteran savvy keeping him away from his spots and getting in his face. I don't see how the Kings' most consistent performer and a solid defender can be called soft.

If you look at the production by position numbers on the Kings "production by percentage" page of 82games.com, not only are the Kings outscoring teams at the PF position, if you look at SAR's individual numbers, when he's playing power forward the opposing power forwards are shooting an eFG (factors in 3 pointers) of .395. Barely 40%!!! Meanwhile, he's shooting over 50%. Those are some good numbers. He's also playing great help defense.

He's getting slightly outrebounded, which sucks, but not nearly as bad as Miller. Miller is getting outboarded by 4.6, and it's not like he's been playing against rebounding machines, and opposing centers are shooting 60%. That's gotta change. But for the love of god, don't blame Miller's troubles on SAR's alleged "softness."

 

[Bricklayer]

Ok, this is off topic, but I really think it's time to put the tired old SAR-is-soft thing to bed. The guy is not soft. He shut down your boy KG and he showed a ton of veteran savvy keeping him away from his spots and getting in his face. I don't see how the Kings' most consistent performer and a solid defender can be called soft.

If you look at the production by position numbers (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SAC5.HTM), not only are the Kings outscoring teams at the PF position, if you look at SAR's individual numbers, when he's playing power forward the opposing power forwards are shooting 32%. 32%!!! Meanwhile, he's shooting over 50%. Those are some good numbers. He's also playing great help defense.

He's getting slightly outrebounded, which sucks, but not nearly as bad as Miller. Miller is getting outboarded by 4.6, and it's not like he's been playing against rebounding machines, and opposing centers are shooting 60%. That's gotta change. But for the love of god, don't blame Miller's troubles on SAR's alleged "softness."

SAR is NOTORIOUSLY soft. I know you've been oddly fascinated with him even before he arrived, but I believe it to be a fascination based on his "niceness" (he seems to be) and "prettiness" to his offensive game (it is pretty). He is a blown up SF. He does not rebound. Does not block shots. Does not body anybody. Fades into passivity. And loses. And that last thing is not unattached to the first things. He has not ever done ANY of the little things to help teams win. He scores. End of story.

He and Peja are the worst reboudning pair of forwards in the league. Unless I am missing sombody, the worst shotblocking pair of forwards in the league (Murphy/Dunleavy are similar). And certainly the least intimidating pair of forwards in the league physically. Just nudge me the next time EITHER guy puts a body on the ground. KT is a midget amongst PFs, but he's twice as tough. Corliss is smaller still, but he's twice as tough again. SAR is the "PF" version of Peja, all pretty scoring ability. And if Peja can be soft while showing solid positional man on man defensive ability (and he is), than so can SAR. It is the extent of his resume.

And while my Miller guess is just a guess, it fits Brad's career pattern -- he may feed off of and reflect the attitudes of the players around him. Oak and Artest would scare Peja and SAR into the powder room, and thus while playing alongside them Brad looks "tough" and joins the physical play and borderline cheapshots. Then he plays alongside our softies, and all of a sudden he is soft as well. Its merely a hypothesis, but its one that fits the available data. Means Brad is a follower, not a tonesetter.

P.S. And that SAR shutting down KG thing is just kind of the laughable successor to the Peja shutting down this or that bunk we've endured so often before on this board. SAR did a good job, he stayed in front of KG + impeded him. That's it. KG just looked flat and missed shots. He missed them agaisnt Thomas and Skinner too. Unless of course you wouold like to argue that our three headed SAR/Thomas/Skinner monster is abruptly the long sought after KG-cryptonite.

 

[nbrans]

SAR is NOTORIOUSLY soft. I know you've been oddly fascinated with him even before he arrived, but I believe it to be a shallow fascination based on his "noicness" and "prettiness" to his offensive game. He is a blown up SF. He does not rebound. Does not block shots. Does not body anybody. And loses. And that last thing is not unattached to the first things. He has not ever done ANY of the little things to help teams win. He scores. End of story.

He and Peja are the worst reboudning pair of forwards in the league. Unless I am missing sombody, the worst shotblocking pair of forwards int the league. And certianly the least intimidating pair of forwards int he league physically. Just nudge me the next time EITHER guy puts a body on the ground. KT is a midget, but he's twice as tough. Corliss is smaller still, but he's twice as tough again. SAR is the "PF" version of Peja, all pretty scoring ability. And if Peja can be soft while showing solid positional man on man defensive ability (and he is), than so can SAR. It is the extent of his resume.

Just because you say SAR is soft until your throat hurts doesn't mean that it's true or that it's an actual reputation or that he's NOTORIOUSLY soft. You can't dispute those defensive percentages, which, if you look at the rest of the stats, are one of the few bright spots defensively. He doesn't do ANY of the little things? Gee, I can't think of a player I've seen diving for loose balls and giving extra effort than SAR, not even Bonzi.

And seriously, knocking people to the floor has to be one of the most overrated events in all of basketball. Do you really think it intimidates players, professionals and have been knocked to the floor hundreds of times in their careers? Or maybe pisses them off and motivates them more?

He needs to board better, plain and simple. But come on, you can admit he's defending well and still not like him. It won't kill you!

P.S. Give SAR credit for cooling down KG, for the love of god. That won't kill you either. And yes, KG started hitting his shots when KT was guarding him in the 4th quarter. When KT was in in the first half KG was on the bench. SAR's and KG's minutes tracked one another until the 4th.
P.P.S. In an article for ESPN John Hollinger gave SAR an A-, but said his defense is soft. I maintain that Hollinger probably hasn't been watching all the games, but I guess I was wrong about SAR not having that reputation

 

[CruzDude]

Brad is not now and never has been quick of feet nor a jumper. Remember his mentor was Vlade. BUT that being said, where are the defensive rotations that are supposed to be there to prevent layups or at least get in the way of easy layups?? Brad is doing what Brad does. Same today as the past 3 years. Kings just had better rotations on defense.

 

[rexb_kings]

move him to the 4 and get a shot blockin center out of peja

agreed..but not all out on trading Peja. Peja's still recovering from his hand injury. would be better if we put Skinner,BMiller,Rahim,Bonzi,Bibby as our starting five then have Peja come in off the bench. this is for the time being that Peja is still recovering and we badly needed interior defense. just hope RA tries some mix and matching on what the team has and what the players can give.

 

[Kings113]

I'd be alright with that, rex. But from Rick's words recently, I don't know.

 

[Zyphen]

Ok, this is off topic, but I really think it's time to put the tired old SAR-is-soft thing to bed. The guy is not soft. He shut down your boy KG and he showed a ton of veteran savvy keeping him away from his spots and getting in his face. I don't see how the Kings' most consistent performer and a solid defender can be called soft.

If you look at the production by position numbers (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SAC5.HTM), not only are the Kings outscoring teams at the PF position, if you look at SAR's individual numbers, when he's playing power forward the opposing power forwards are shooting an eFG (factors in 3 pointers) of .395. Barely 40%!!! Meanwhile, he's shooting over 50%. Those are some good numbers. He's also playing great help defense.

He's getting slightly outrebounded, which sucks, but not nearly as bad as Miller. Miller is getting outboarded by 4.6, and it's not like he's been playing against rebounding machines, and opposing centers are shooting 60%. That's gotta change. But for the love of god, don't blame Miller's troubles on SAR's alleged "softness."

I clicked the link and it's broken. I don't know how you got those fictional numbers but I went on the site and clicked under SAR and found http://www.82games.com/0506/05SAC11D.HTM:

[SIZE=-1]Effective FG% Allowed[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]50.5%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]47.9%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]+2.6%[/SIZE]

So, no. Even with the abberation on KG, he's doing a worse job on opposing front courts than they are on him.

 

[nbrans]

I clicked the link and it's broken. I don't know how you got those fictional numbers but I went on the site and clicked under SAR and found http://www.82games.com/0506/05SAC11D.HTM:

[SIZE=-1]Effective FG% Allowed[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]50.5%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]47.9%[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]+2.6%[/SIZE]

So, no. Even with the abberation on KG, he's doing a worse job on opposing front courts than they are on him.

The number I got was when guarding opposing PFs: http://www.82games.com/0506/05SAC11C.HTM. His overall number is skewed by his time playing center, where he's obviously not as effective -- all the more reason Adelman shouldn't have him playing center.

P.S. Way to give me the benefit of the doubt, Zyphen.

 

[Bricklayer]

I was goign to leave this alone...but:

1) I could not find the page you were referring to either. The corrected link heads to a page with collected numbers for Kings PFs.

2) It is largely irrelevant to the issue in any case -- Peja is butter soft despite being able to stay in front of his man too.

3) He has barely had to play anybody, and with the exception of the KG aberration, the few upper echelon PFs he has guarded (Duncan, Bosh, even Marion) had no problems whatsoever. So far we have avoided many of the best scoring PFs -- no Boozer's, Randolphs, J.Oneal's, Gasol's, Nowitzki's, Webber's, Brand's, Amare's etc. David West, Juwann Howard & Troy Murphy oh my.

4) As usual for Reef's career, his defensive plus/minus when he is on the court or off of it sucks. Per 100 possessions (just 82 games' standard number) teams score 107.7 pts against us with him on the court, and only 101.4 with him off the court. And their "Effective FG%" is 50.5% compared to 47.9 when he's on the bench. His 101.1 pts against/per48 (average of what the other team scores per 48min of time Reef is ont he floor) is dead last on the team. All of which is to say that even if he is a solid individual defender, he is Peja -- doesn't do enough of anything else, doesn't help his teammates, and hence is soft and we get scored on because of it.

5) I have mentioned an article by 82games stats-geek Dan Rosenblaum before in regards to Peja, who according to the numbers was the 2nd worst defending SF in the league for the past three seasons, despite beign a competent man to man defender. Well the same article finds another prominent King on the lists as the 9th worst (of 57) PF defender over the same span. And for the same reason. Soft, does not board. Does not block shots. Does not rotate strong or play physical. Note the methodology of the study. I do not present it as gospel (not being a fan of made up combo stats), but it is a strong attempt at quantification. http://www.82games.com/rosenbaum3.htm .

 

[nbrans]

I was goign to leave this alone...but:

1) I could not find the page you were referring to either. The corrected link heads to a page with collected numbers for Kings PFs.

2) It is largely irrelevant to the issue in any case -- Peja is butter soft despite being able to stay in front of his man too.

3) He has barely had to play anybody, and with the exception of the KG aberration, the few upper echelon PFs he has guarded (Duncan, Bosh, even Marion) had no problems whatsoever. So far we have avoided many of the best scoring PFs -- no Boozer's, Randolphs, J.Oneal's, Gasol's, Nowitzki's, Webber's, Brand's, Amare's etc. David West, Juwann Howard & Troy Murphy oh my.

4) As usual for Reef's career, his defensive plus/minus when he is on the court or off of it sucks. Per 100 possessions (just 82 games' standard number) teams score 107.7 pts against us with him on the court, and only 101.4 with him off the court. And their "Effective FG%" is 50.5% compared to 47.9 when he's on the bench. His 101.1 pts against/per48 (average of what the other team scores per 48min of time Reef is ont he floor) is dead last on the team. All of which is to say that even if he is a solid individual defender, he is Peja -- doesn't do enough of anything else, doesn't help his teammates, and hence is soft and we get scored on because of it.

5) I have mentioned an article by 82games stats-geek Dan Rosenblaum before in regards to Peja, who according to the numbers was the 2nd worst defending SF in the league for the past three seasons, despite beign a competent man to man defender. Well the same article finds another prominent King on the lists as the 9th worst (of 57) PF defender over the same span. And for the same reason. Soft, does not board. Does not block shots. Does not rotate strong or play physical. Note the methodology of the study. I do not present it as gospel (not being a fan of made up combo stats), but it is a strong attempt at quantification. http://www.82games.com/rosenbaum3.htm .

1) Sorry for the broken links, for some reason some pages on that site work when I copy the link, some don't.

2) I suppose you can arbitrarily call someone soft, and we can argue till the cows come home about that label, I just think that SAR is defending well, and the numbers happen to back that up.

3) Duncan and Bosh scored a point or two above their season averages (but didn't exactly go off), Marion and KG scored below theirs. Overall, according to the stats on 82games.com, the SAR/KT combo is better defensively against opposing PFs than Webber/Songaila. (.419% opposing efg vs. .500%). I'm with you that the rebounding sucks, but something is working on the interior, and we all know it's not Brad.

4) This is just a personal bias, but the overall plus/minus thing is kind of dubious to me because so much of it depends on substitution rotations -- if a player happens to spend a disproportionate amount of time with the second unit, as SAR does, or, if you're looking at career numbers, if a player has spent time with crappy teams it's going to bring down the +/- number. I prefer to look at individual matchups. But that's just me.

Regarding the qualities you tick off as evidence of softness, I agree that he doesn't block shots well, but his perimeter rotating help defense is awesome, and one of the reasons teams have a hard time penetrating and getting layups against the Kings. He needs to board better, but that's a team effort. And I'm sorry, he hasn't hesitated to bang with anyone.

I've expressed this before, but those Rosenbaum numbers are utterly worthless. Matt Harpring the worst defending SF? Ben Gordon the second best defending SG? Cliffy the second worst defending PF? I mean, come on. Sure, some of the usual suspects are at the top and bottom, but he could have done better throwing darts.

To keep the Miller theme of this thread, I'll say this: whatever lapses there have been on interior defense, including rebounding (SAR is mostly a wash compared to opposing PFs) can be lain at Miller's earth-bound feet.

P.S. SAR is leading the team in PER differential. He scores a PER of 19.5 compared to 12.1 for his opponents. Miller, meanwhile, is allowing opposing centers score an astounding 22.5 compared to his own 19.1, meaning there's statistical evidence that he's turning opposing centers into All-Stars.
(Finding this info under the "Roland Ratings" section of 82games.com -- these numbers are through 12/5)
P.P.S. Just for fun, Webber's PER is 18.7, and his opponents are 16.5.