You're one of the people here who's highest on Porter so I'm curious if you can answer this for me....
I watched the McDonald's All American game and while Porter did win the MVP award, he made only 6 shots in that game, missed all 4 of his threes, and of those 6 shots 1 of them was a cherry picking dunk, 1 was an alley-oop, four were right under the basket, and 1 was a nice dribble drive and layup. Most of his drives got cut off and he was basically 0 for 7 on anything more than 5 feet from the hoop. For a guy billed as a smooth wing athlete, he sure looked a lot like a tweener PF in that game. Collin Sexton was the standout star of the night for me and my opinion of Porter actually went down after that performance.
Then I watched the Nike Hoop Summit. He did make a pull-up three in that game but other than that it was the same story. Free throws and open-court dunks. I have no doubts about his ability to finish plays above the rim or take advantage of mistakes under the basket because of his size and hops but so far in these two marquee games he's 1 for 8 on threes with a funky shooting motion that doesn't strike me as conducive to high percentage repeatability in the NBA and he's living at the line on some questionable contact calls rather than making tough shots. He's getting to the basket but when he does get there he's getting stuffed like crazy.
Now that's two games and there's some All-Star game matador defense played on both sides there, but it's at least against elite competition. High school games don't really tell me much because some of the competition is truly awful. I still remember watching Perry Jones play in High School and thinking "wow, this kid is going to be the next Tracy McGrady!" and then after a disappointing two years at Baylor it turns out he's not even an NBA player. Anybody 6'9" or taller who can jump like that and handle the ball in the open floor is going to be a monster against High School competition. Things get considerably more difficult when height alone is no longer the ultimate trump card and Porter has a similarly skinny frame.
So I said there'd be a question in here didn't I? This is what I'm wondering -- because you said you've watched Porter play a ton and I take your word for it -- do you think these high-ceiling projections for him are really reflective of his overall skill level or is it possible the dazzling athleticism, ability to finish above the rim in the open floor, and pull-up in the midrange (because even a high school three is an NBA midrange jumper) where his high release makes him basically unblockable in High School is inflating his value just a bit? Huge scoring numbers are nice but it's High School, the real question is does he look like an NBA star? I don't watch a lot of high school ball outside of the big All Star games so the few times I've been able to watch him play I see a guy who doesn't hustle on defense, struggles to put the ball in the basket any time he takes contact, and utilizes a rhythm hesitation dribble to get off a three point shot that rarely goes in. That's not encouraging at all!
Speaking of which... one of the biggest selling points for Porter has been his knockdown three point jumper so I'm most surprised to find that one of my biggest question marks right now is how he's going to find success shooting the ball the way he does. When I watched Lonzo Ball at UCLA I thought to myself "this is a guy who can't shoot" and yet there it was on the page: 55% from the field, 41% from three. How could my eyes be so wrong compared to the cold hard data? And then he gets to the NBA and he's an abysmal shooter in his rookie season. Suddenly it becomes very apparent that his non-existent mid range game is a liability because he can't live on dunks and layups like he did in college and those slingshot threes are streaky as hell. I don't think the situation is as dire for Porter by any means but it's a similar case of the eye-test not matching the stats for me.
I believe you were with me there for a little while in believing in Perry Jones. Is there any sense for you that Porter could end up turning out the same way? There's no "gotcha" in this for me, I'm just trying to understand if I'm missing something here or if maybe there's just a lot of follow-the-leader and confirmation bias going on with this guy. Obviously we need a SF and Porter has been billed as a huge wing with insane shooting talent and bounce and top of the charts athleticism who can create his own shots all over the floor. If that's the case how come he didn't show it in these All Star games? Why does he seem to have trouble getting by defenders in the half court?
Kevin Durant has been a popular comparison but if Porter had come into college and averaged 26 and 11 with 2 blocks and 2 steals per game like Durant did we wouldn't even be having this conversation. I don't want to draft a guy because he resembles Durant a little -- because we need a SF and the most optimistic of projections have Porter scrapping the surface of KD's MVP level talent. I want to feel confident that I'm drafting a player who will be a star in the NBA. With his massive production in college KD left little doubt about where his future lied. Unfortunately for Michael Porter he didn't get that chance. Well actually, he could have given himself that chance if he stayed at Missouri another year. I'm not going to hold that against him but I'm also not going to automatically give him credit for something he hasn't done. I have some doubts about his ability to excel even in college. Maybe that back injury was already an issue and that's why he didn't look good in the All Star games. Certainly that was the case for Harry Giles' short-lived college career.
This is a lot of rambling nonsense, I'm just trying to give you some sense of where my doubts come from. The risk with this guy is massive. If you pick him at #2 and he's Kevin Durant, we're in business! If you pick him at #2 and he's closer to Perry Jones than we're absolutely sunk. We've just blown the best chance this franchise has had in 30 years to propel itself forward with one draft pick. I can't justify that level of risk to myself. If there's some magical footage out there that involves more than dunking and shooting pull up jumpers on average high school players I'd love to see it! Especially if our front office is serious about potentially picking this kid.
I watched the McDonald's All American game and while Porter did win the MVP award, he made only 6 shots in that game, missed all 4 of his threes, and of those 6 shots 1 of them was a cherry picking dunk, 1 was an alley-oop, four were right under the basket, and 1 was a nice dribble drive and layup. Most of his drives got cut off and he was basically 0 for 7 on anything more than 5 feet from the hoop. For a guy billed as a smooth wing athlete, he sure looked a lot like a tweener PF in that game. Collin Sexton was the standout star of the night for me and my opinion of Porter actually went down after that performance.
Then I watched the Nike Hoop Summit. He did make a pull-up three in that game but other than that it was the same story. Free throws and open-court dunks. I have no doubts about his ability to finish plays above the rim or take advantage of mistakes under the basket because of his size and hops but so far in these two marquee games he's 1 for 8 on threes with a funky shooting motion that doesn't strike me as conducive to high percentage repeatability in the NBA and he's living at the line on some questionable contact calls rather than making tough shots. He's getting to the basket but when he does get there he's getting stuffed like crazy.
Now that's two games and there's some All-Star game matador defense played on both sides there, but it's at least against elite competition. High school games don't really tell me much because some of the competition is truly awful. I still remember watching Perry Jones play in High School and thinking "wow, this kid is going to be the next Tracy McGrady!" and then after a disappointing two years at Baylor it turns out he's not even an NBA player. Anybody 6'9" or taller who can jump like that and handle the ball in the open floor is going to be a monster against High School competition. Things get considerably more difficult when height alone is no longer the ultimate trump card and Porter has a similarly skinny frame.
So I said there'd be a question in here didn't I? This is what I'm wondering -- because you said you've watched Porter play a ton and I take your word for it -- do you think these high-ceiling projections for him are really reflective of his overall skill level or is it possible the dazzling athleticism, ability to finish above the rim in the open floor, and pull-up in the midrange (because even a high school three is an NBA midrange jumper) where his high release makes him basically unblockable in High School is inflating his value just a bit? Huge scoring numbers are nice but it's High School, the real question is does he look like an NBA star? I don't watch a lot of high school ball outside of the big All Star games so the few times I've been able to watch him play I see a guy who doesn't hustle on defense, struggles to put the ball in the basket any time he takes contact, and utilizes a rhythm hesitation dribble to get off a three point shot that rarely goes in. That's not encouraging at all!
Speaking of which... one of the biggest selling points for Porter has been his knockdown three point jumper so I'm most surprised to find that one of my biggest question marks right now is how he's going to find success shooting the ball the way he does. When I watched Lonzo Ball at UCLA I thought to myself "this is a guy who can't shoot" and yet there it was on the page: 55% from the field, 41% from three. How could my eyes be so wrong compared to the cold hard data? And then he gets to the NBA and he's an abysmal shooter in his rookie season. Suddenly it becomes very apparent that his non-existent mid range game is a liability because he can't live on dunks and layups like he did in college and those slingshot threes are streaky as hell. I don't think the situation is as dire for Porter by any means but it's a similar case of the eye-test not matching the stats for me.
I believe you were with me there for a little while in believing in Perry Jones. Is there any sense for you that Porter could end up turning out the same way? There's no "gotcha" in this for me, I'm just trying to understand if I'm missing something here or if maybe there's just a lot of follow-the-leader and confirmation bias going on with this guy. Obviously we need a SF and Porter has been billed as a huge wing with insane shooting talent and bounce and top of the charts athleticism who can create his own shots all over the floor. If that's the case how come he didn't show it in these All Star games? Why does he seem to have trouble getting by defenders in the half court?
Kevin Durant has been a popular comparison but if Porter had come into college and averaged 26 and 11 with 2 blocks and 2 steals per game like Durant did we wouldn't even be having this conversation. I don't want to draft a guy because he resembles Durant a little -- because we need a SF and the most optimistic of projections have Porter scrapping the surface of KD's MVP level talent. I want to feel confident that I'm drafting a player who will be a star in the NBA. With his massive production in college KD left little doubt about where his future lied. Unfortunately for Michael Porter he didn't get that chance. Well actually, he could have given himself that chance if he stayed at Missouri another year. I'm not going to hold that against him but I'm also not going to automatically give him credit for something he hasn't done. I have some doubts about his ability to excel even in college. Maybe that back injury was already an issue and that's why he didn't look good in the All Star games. Certainly that was the case for Harry Giles' short-lived college career.
This is a lot of rambling nonsense, I'm just trying to give you some sense of where my doubts come from. The risk with this guy is massive. If you pick him at #2 and he's Kevin Durant, we're in business! If you pick him at #2 and he's closer to Perry Jones than we're absolutely sunk. We've just blown the best chance this franchise has had in 30 years to propel itself forward with one draft pick. I can't justify that level of risk to myself. If there's some magical footage out there that involves more than dunking and shooting pull up jumpers on average high school players I'd love to see it! Especially if our front office is serious about potentially picking this kid.
That said, prior to the season, I had Porter right up there at the top of my list, along with Doncic. And then when Bagley reclassified, it became a three man race for number one in my mind.. I don't have a problem with Porter's shot, and I certainly wouldn't compare it to Ball's, which is one of the strangest shots I've ever seen. He does bring the ball further back than I would like, but he has a very high release that I do like. He's also very creative at times, scoring off the dribble in a variety of ways.
It's a shame we didn't get to see him compete in college. I totally discount the two games he did play in, which unfortunately leaves us with his highschool games to judge him on. But he wouldn't be the first player to be in that situation. What makes his case unique, is the fact he had the back injury. If he were allowed to go directly from highschool to the NBA, like Lebron, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. And that's not a comparison to Lebron other than the situation.
Look, there were times in highschool when he appeared to be disengaged, or perhaps confused defensively. And yes, that bothered me. There were times when I thought he forced up shots when he should have moved the ball. There were times when I thought he had a chance to take a charge, and instead played matador defense with an Ole!. But I could say the same thing about a lot of highschoolers. I always take a players age into consideration and remind myself that were dealing with kids, not adults.
On the other hand, I felt that for his young age, he was a very skilled player and more advanced than most others in his age group. No, he can't dribble the ball like Trae Young, but his handles are fine for a 19 year old SF/PF. While there are times I think he should have passed the ball, he does make very nice passes on occasion, which means he capable. Now will his current skill set make him an all star at the next level? No, of course not. It needs to improve, but as a young player, you don't really know how much, or at what, until confronted by an NBA defender.
It's a very rare player that doesn't have to make adjustments upon entering the NBA. The NBA is a spread the floor, pick and roll league. You won't see much of that at the college level, and certainly not at the highschool level. Particularly at the highschool level where defense is an afterthought. Think about it, how do you learn to defend the pick and roll if no one runs the pick and roll. Or seldom runs it. So before I end up writing a book, let me cut to the chase. If I have the 2nd pick in the draft, I would take Doncic if he's till sitting there. I doubt he'll ever be a superstar, but I do think he can be an all star.
Now if the Suns decide to take Doncic, then for me, it becomes more complicated. I'm stuck choosing between Bagley and Jaren Jackson. Purely a gut thing here. Something about Ayton bothers me, and I could be wrong about him. But I'm very high on Jackson, and to me he's the true mystery man in this draft. At the same time, I feel confident that Bagley will be a very good NBA player, just not sure how good. Hey, I felt that Kidd Gilchrist only needed to develop a consistent jumpshot to be a very good player. Never happened! So you never know do you?
So my last thought is this. In a league that currently values shooting more than anything else, it's probably a good idea to hang your hat on someone that can already shoot the ball as opposed to a player that you hope will develop into a good shooter. Unless that player is so unique in other ways, it justifies taking that gamble. One of the reasons I loved Mikal Bridges was the dude was an outstanding shooter, along with his solid defense. So pick your poison. I was partially wrong about Drummond, so I could be wrong about Ayton as well. With luck, I've confused everyone!