If you honestly think Porter is super raw, then I'm not sure I can have a conversation with you. It's unbelievable to me! I'll give you this. Doncic probably has the highest floor of the top players, but Porter might have the highest ceiling. Is there a bit of risk with Porter? Yes, but you know everyone on this forum is always talking about taking a risk when there's a chance to possibly grab a superstar. Well this may be that chance. No, there's no guarantee, and if there was, well then the Suns would grab him before us.
Porter is a very very talented player. About that I have no doubt. To think he's raw is ridiculous. You want a player that's raw, well then draft Bamba. He has no handles to speak of and he has no post game to speak of other than putbacks. He also has little feel for the game offensively away from the basket, other than shooting an open three. But, like Porter, he also has a very high ceiling. With any of these players your betting on development, which means your betting on whomever you choose being a hard worker
I think Porter and Bamba both want to be great players, so I'm willing to bet some money on them. I have a bit of doubt about Ayton in that area, but could be wrong. I can't get into a players head, and I don't have the ability to talk to his family or his past coaches. So I rely on rumors about a players work ethic. If a player has the reputation of being a gym rat, then he's usually a hard worker. If he's already talented, and he is indeed a hard worker, then your going to end up with a very good player.
I'm not saying that we should draft Porter or any other player. I've said that I think you almost can't go wrong with any of them. The hard part is figuring out which one will be the best in two or three years. If Porter is healthy, then it could be him, and to just discard him, or worse yet, feel the need to disparage him with unfounded criticism makes no sense to me.
You're one of the people here who's highest on Porter so I'm curious if you can answer this for me....
I watched the McDonald's All American game and while Porter did win the MVP award, he made only 6 shots in that game, missed all 4 of his threes, and of those 6 shots 1 of them was a cherry picking dunk, 1 was an alley-oop, four were right under the basket, and 1 was a nice dribble drive and layup. Most of his drives got cut off and he was basically 0 for 7 on anything more than 5 feet from the hoop. For a guy billed as a smooth wing athlete, he sure looked a lot like a tweener PF in that game. Collin Sexton was the standout star of the night for me and my opinion of Porter actually went down after that performance.
Then I watched the Nike Hoop Summit. He did make a pull-up three in that game but other than that it was the same story. Free throws and open-court dunks. I have no doubts about his ability to finish plays above the rim or take advantage of mistakes under the basket because of his size and hops but so far in these two marquee games he's 1 for 8 on threes with a funky shooting motion that doesn't strike me as conducive to high percentage repeatability in the NBA and he's living at the line on some questionable contact calls rather than making tough shots. He's getting to the basket but when he does get there he's getting stuffed like crazy.
Now that's two games and there's some All-Star game matador defense played on both sides there, but it's at least against elite competition. High school games don't really tell me much because some of the competition is truly awful. I still remember watching Perry Jones play in High School and thinking "wow, this kid is going to be the next Tracy McGrady!" and then after a disappointing two years at Baylor it turns out he's not even an NBA player. Anybody 6'9" or taller who can jump like that and handle the ball in the open floor is going to be a monster against High School competition. Things get considerably more difficult when height alone is no longer the ultimate trump card and Porter has a similarly skinny frame.
So I said there'd be a question in here didn't I? This is what I'm wondering -- because you said you've watched Porter play a ton and I take your word for it -- do you think these high-ceiling projections for him are really reflective of his overall skill level or is it
possible the dazzling athleticism, ability to finish above the rim in the open floor, and pull-up in the midrange (because even a high school three is an NBA midrange jumper) where his high release makes him basically unblockable in High School is inflating his value just a bit? Huge scoring numbers are nice but it's High School, the real question is does he look like an NBA star? I don't watch a lot of high school ball outside of the big All Star games so the few times I've been able to watch him play I see a guy who doesn't hustle on defense, struggles to put the ball in the basket any time he takes contact, and utilizes a rhythm hesitation dribble to get off a three point shot that rarely goes in. That's not encouraging at all!
Speaking of which... one of the biggest selling points for Porter has been his knockdown three point jumper so I'm most surprised to find that one of my biggest question marks right now is how he's going to find success shooting the ball the way he does. When I watched Lonzo Ball at UCLA I thought to myself "this is a guy who can't shoot" and yet there it was on the page: 55% from the field, 41% from three. How could my eyes be so wrong compared to the cold hard data? And then he gets to the NBA and he's an abysmal shooter in his rookie season. Suddenly it becomes very apparent that his non-existent mid range game is a liability because he can't live on dunks and layups like he did in college and those slingshot threes are streaky as hell. I don't think the situation is as dire for Porter by any means but it's a similar case of the eye-test not matching the stats for me.
I believe you were with me there for a little while in believing in Perry Jones. Is there any sense for you that Porter could end up turning out the same way? There's no "gotcha" in this for me, I'm just trying to understand if I'm missing something here or if maybe there's just a lot of follow-the-leader and confirmation bias going on with this guy. Obviously we need a SF and Porter has been billed as a huge wing with insane shooting talent and bounce and top of the charts athleticism who can create his own shots all over the floor. If that's the case how come he didn't show it in these All Star games? Why does he seem to have trouble getting by defenders in the half court?
Kevin Durant has been a popular comparison but if Porter had come into college and averaged 26 and 11 with 2 blocks and 2 steals per game like Durant did we wouldn't even be having this conversation. I don't want to draft a guy because he resembles Durant a little -- because we need a SF and the most optimistic of projections have Porter scrapping the surface of KD's MVP level talent. I want to feel confident that I'm drafting a player who will be a star in the NBA. With his massive production in college KD left little doubt about where his future lied. Unfortunately for Michael Porter he didn't get that chance. Well actually, he could have given himself that chance if he stayed at Missouri another year. I'm not going to hold that against him but I'm also not going to automatically give him credit for something he hasn't done. I have some doubts about his ability to excel even in college. Maybe that back injury was already an issue and that's why he didn't look good in the All Star games. Certainly that was the case for Harry Giles' short-lived college career.
This is a lot of rambling nonsense, I'm just trying to give you some sense of where my doubts come from. The risk with this guy is massive. If you pick him at #2 and he's Kevin Durant, we're in business! If you pick him at #2 and he's closer to Perry Jones than we're absolutely sunk. We've just blown the best chance this franchise has had in 30 years to propel itself forward with one draft pick. I can't justify that level of risk to myself. If there's some magical footage out there that involves more than dunking and shooting pull up jumpers on average high school players I'd love to see it! Especially if our front office is serious about potentially picking this kid.