Marvin Bagley III

[ESP47]

Chris Chiozza may not be an NBA player, but he's a 6'0 175lb PG playing on a very good Florida team... and Bagley was playing great D against him. If he were a 6'7 stiff PF/SF, that's a different story, but he's a small speedy PG. All of the guys in this draft have gone up against guys who will never sniff the NBA. Even Doncic himself.

I think you're maissvely underrating Bagley's athleticism and quickness.

go to 3:48 if the video doesn't start at there. more than enough speed and quickness to keep up with NBA PFs. The weaknesses show his poor defensive awareness, but through those lapses, you can see he has very quick feet.

That was some good defense right there. The one at 4:04 I wouldn't count because that PG from Pitt looks slow as molasses.

I'm curious to see if he can develop a right hand because he looks as awkward as it gets when he spins to his left and then realizes he's not in position to go up with his left hand. I haven't paid enough attention, do you know if any other big men are as one hand dominant as he is? I'd imagine he would be a lot easier to defend than anticipated since you don't really have to worry about him getting a good shot up if he spins left.

One thing I do like is that through all his defensive lapses, he never looks disinterested. I don't get that kind of ho hum defensive feel from him like I do with Ayton. He looks locked in and energized, even if he is completely flubbing the play up.

 

[BigVirg]

 

[Kingster]

I think many are blowing Bagley's defense out of proportion. There is no doubt that he struggled with his defensive awareness when playing team defense, but he showed quick feet and agility when guarding one on one. The question is can he learn team defense? Only time will tell.

With his quick jumping ability, he should be a good defender. He just hasn't shown it yet.

 

[Kingster]

I agree, the fluidity in Jacksons game is pretty ridiculous.. you rarely see a big so coordinated like that. 3.1 blks in 21 mpg is insane. Kirilenko potential?

I would think. And then you add the fluidity that Kirilenko never really had and you get...?

 

[Telemachus]

With his quick jumping ability, he should be a good defender. He just hasn't shown it yet.

That is a common problem with a lot of guys who dominate in HS. They are so much better than the competition that they don't have to try on defense and AAU seems to discourage defense altogether.

What I liked about Bagley is that he put forth effort on defense. He just wasn't always very effective. If he is willing to give the effort, then he is likely willing to learn how to do it right.

 

[Kingster]

Here is a fun comparison. The stats of one Duke frosh (Tatum) with another Duke frosh (Bagley):

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jayson-tatum-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/marvin-bagleyiii-1.html

Bagley has him beat in FG%, 3 pt %, and rebounding, while Tatum has the edge in assists, steals, and blocks, with a very large margin in free throw percentage.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

Another thing to be aware of with Bagley is that the Duke team he played on was loaded with talent. Wendell Carter, Grayson Allen, Gary Trent Jr, and Trevon Duval all might go in the first round. He strongly benefited from tons of open looks and being set up right at the hoop by his team mates. I still love the guy as a top 3 prospect, but we definitely need to be aware of inflated stats.

 

[Sam0ah]

Another thing to be aware of with Bagley is that the Duke team he played on was loaded with talent. Wendell Carter, Grayson Allen, Gary Trent Jr, and Trevon Duval all might go in the first round. He strongly benefited from tons of open looks and being set up right at the hoop by his team mates. I still love the guy as a top 3 prospect, but we definitely need to be aware of inflated stats.

You can also flip it and say Bagley put up great rebounding numbers with Wendell Carter in the lineup.

 

[Mike]

Another thing to be aware of with Bagley is that the Duke team he played on was loaded with talent. Wendell Carter, Grayson Allen, Gary Trent Jr, and Trevon Duval all might go in the first round. He strongly benefited from tons of open looks and being set up right at the hoop by his team mates. I still love the guy as a top 3 prospect, but we definitely need to be aware of inflated stats.

To be honest I'm not concerned that he produced the numbers he did on a good team. He could easily have taken a backseat and coasted through that year based on his athleticism and size. Instead he utilized his competitive instinct and motor to be a primary option on that team and produced good performances.

If we look at past drafts we could say the same about other prospects. Jayson Tatum played on a Duke team that featured Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen; and De'Aaron Fox played his college ball with fellow first round picks Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo. There are other prospects down the years that played on teams loaded with talent. I don't think it should make us question whether his stats are inflated or not. It's like Trae Young, an argument could be made that his stats are only that high because they didn't really have anyone else, but the flip side of that argument is that scoring that many points per game proves he can carry a team. So while I see what you're trying to say, I don't think there is much to worry about with Bagley because he seems as safe a prospect as any in this year's draft.

 

[ESP47]

Another thing to be aware of with Bagley is that the Duke team he played on was loaded with talent. Wendell Carter, Grayson Allen, Gary Trent Jr, and Trevon Duval all might go in the first round. He strongly benefited from tons of open looks and being set up right at the hoop by his team mates. I still love the guy as a top 3 prospect, but we definitely need to be aware of inflated stats.

I'd say it's all a wash because those guys also took shots away from him. Maybe they set him up for some easy looks but they also didn't give him the ball enough in certain situations. That was one of the knocks on that Duke team, they didn't get Bagley the ball enough sometimes.

He has a knack for finding exactly where he needs to be under the basket to be ready for the pass. That's an important skill that not a ton of players have. He can get you 4-5 point blank points a game just by shifting into position while the play is being broken down by the guards.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

To be honest I'm not concerned that he produced the numbers he did on a good team. He could easily have taken a backseat and coasted through that year based on his athleticism and size. Instead he utilized his competitive instinct and motor to be a primary option on that team and produced good performances.

If we look at past drafts we could say the same about other prospects. Jayson Tatum played on a Duke team that featured Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen; and De'Aaron Fox played his college ball with fellow first round picks Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo. There are other prospects down the years that played on teams loaded with talent. I don't think it should make us question whether his stats are inflated or not. It's like Trae Young, an argument could be made that his stats are only that high because they didn't really have anyone else, but the flip side of that argument is that scoring that many points per game proves he can carry a team. So while I see what you're trying to say, I don't think there is much to worry about with Bagley because he seems as safe a prospect as any in this year's draft.

Bagley's numbers are much less concerning than Young's from an inflation standpoint.

I just look at this Duke team and I see two phenomenal passers (for college) in Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval and then I see three players on the team that took more than 3 3's a game in Allen, Trent Jr, and Duval. Then I watch his tape and see him taking tons of wide open jumpers and uncontested dunks because defenders are so preoccupied chasing the other guys around. I just think it is something to consider because half the shots he is making per game won't be there in the NBA.

 

[ppine]

The Kings were near the bottom of the league in defensive rebounds last year. A guy like Bagley could help.

 

[roasthawg]

The Kings were near the bottom of the league in defensive rebounds last year. A guy like Bagley could help.

Every player we're talking about at number two could help the Kings. It's about a lot more than helping, it's about hitting a homerun by drafting a perennial all star. That's the goal at number two overall.

 

[Joshoua]

Every player we're talking about at number two could help the Kings. It's about a lot more than helping, it's about hitting a homerun by drafting a perennial all star. That's the goal at number two overall.

Ya rebounding should be last we need playmaking and scoring. Ayton/Doncic/Bagley are all good rebounders anyways

 

[ppine]

Maybe you didn't notice that the Kings are last in the league in defensive rebounding.
We already have playmaking and scoring in Fox, Bogdan and Hield. Jackson is right there.
The Kings are going nowhere with Willie and Skal.
I hope Giles can help.
Don't be surprised if the Kings do not draft Ayton because he will be with the Suns. They may not draft Doncic either.

 

[Blob]

Right now I have Ayton #1 and Bagley #2

Despite the talk of trading the pick I think the strong odds are that Phoenix takes Ayton. And even if they did trade the pick I think the team picking at #1 would still be trading up for Ayton.

Looking at the top names in this draft I think in terms of the chance of being a star player it goes:

1. Bagley
2. Ayton
3. Porter
4. Young
5. Jackson
6. Sexton
7. Doncic
8. Bamba
9. Carter
10. Smith/Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Miles Bridges
12. Mikal Bridges

Bagley and Young also carry a high bust potential IMO and Porter carries both a major injury risk as well as maybe the biggest adjustment other than Mitchell Robinson after essentially missing the whole year. That didn't seem to affect Kyrie but they are very different players.

I think the safest picks are Ayton, Jackson, Doncic, Carter, Doncic, and Mikal Bridges.

And I really like Doncic, I just have a hard time seeing his path to stardom as opposed to being a solid starter or high level role player. Same thing with Jackson though his age and physical tools give him a bigger window to evolving into a significantly better player than what we've seen so far.

So why Bagley? Because I think the Kings have to swing for the fences and because I think the odds are better that he'll be a star than a bust. Somewhere between Chris Bosh and a young/healthy Amar'e or McDyess.

And I don't even think (barring injury) that he can be a Darko or Anthony Bennett level bust. I think a bust for him would be to continue to be lost on defense and really only contribute as a hustle/energy guy. The type of bust that is an early disappoinent but still plays in the league 12-14 years.

If the Suns take Doncic, we should take Ayton. If the Suns take Ayton, we should take Bagley. Simple. This has been my stance since the night of the lottery and I don't see any reason to come off of it after watching a lot of tape on these guys. This is not being against Doncic, who I like a lot, this is being for players who are more likely to be dominant.

If you accept the premise that Doncic is better younger version of Boggy, ask yourself how much better is he? So is Doncic 30% better? 40% better? 100% better? I don't know if you can quantify.

Boggy is great as a passer out of the pick and roll. So is Doncic. Both are multi-position defenders. Boggy can guard 2s and 3s and low level 1s. Doncic will be able to guard 2s and 3s and low level 4s. Both have good awareness defensively. Fundamentally sound. Doncic may get clipped more often getting over picks because of his size. But he can do it.

Doncic is better getting the board and going coast-to-coast. He is better at carving space in the lane with his size. He probably has better foot speed, not that he is blazing. Boggy is the better catch and shoot guy and better off the ball. Though this aspect of Doncic's game will catch up with experience.

So the difference amounts to Doncic doing more at a younger age, height and weight. Doncic foremost skill if he has one is controlling tempo on offense, exploiting lanes and passing angles. He is not great at beating his man off the bounce but he does have decent juke moves that will work against more slow footed wings.

To maximize the ability of Doncic you have to take the ball out of the hands of Fox and Boggy. It could work. Sharing is caring. But I want the ball in Fox hand on the break and often in the half court sets. I want Boggy slicing and dicing.

How many cooks do we want in the kitchen? This is not a strong case against Doncic, because one cannot objectively be made, but variables to consider.

This brings me to Bagley. This kid destroyed the ACC at the tender age of 18 with a 31 PER 64% TS and 21.5% rebound rate....including 4 offensive rebounds per game! If you accept the premise we have three legitimate core players (Buddy, Boggy, Fox), and a bunch of guys still trying to figure it out, then ask how to best complement this trio?

Fox - superior athlete
Buddy - average athlete
Boggy - average athlete
----
Bagley - superior athlete
Doncic - average athlete

Do you want to add another average athlete in Doncic to our core? I am not thrilled by the idea of it. Bagley and Fox as superior athletes with good skill better complement our average athletes (Buddy, Boggy) with superior skill. I am all aboard with BPA but the pieces need to fit!

Another average athlete further relegates you to a half court style that this coach purports to be adverse to. The stats say otherwise.

If we are building around Fox, give him guys to run with. Thats Bagley. Bagley and Fox would be a devastating duo. Bagley can get you 15 PPG the first half of the season and probably 20 PPG in the second half with transition, half hooks, lobs, put backs and beneficiary of pick and roll with Boggy and Fox. He can a #1 option on offense. I mean, this is fairly obvious to me, if we are not so overly intrigued by the European Wonder Boy with duplicative skill set.

Baby Giraffe over at Sactown Royalty brought up the pace the Kings play despite having the fastest PG in the NBA. Our pace was dead last.

With Doncic, he is going to push it. He's going to run. But he's not going to beat you with his speed. He's savvy. He's going to make passes over the top in half court sets. Bagley is going to outrun you. He is going to clear the boards so we can run. He can defense rebound then fill the lane! From a stylistic standpoint, and to get the most out of Fox, Doncic is NOT the optimal choice with Bagley on the board.

Ayton is a more dominant version of Bagley with more defensive upside. He's not going to run the floor as well, but because of increased length and power, he is the obvious pick over Bagley. Ayton is the obvious choice for the Suns. Whether they do the obvious remains to be seen!

Jaren Jackson and Bamba project as better defenders than Bagley. Jackson is not going to be a hub offensively. He is Derrick Favors-like to me. He is 10 PPG 12 RPG with shot blocking. I want a more versatile scorer at #2. Bamba is a great prospect but there is more risk there with his high center of gravity. But he is coordinated with nice hands and feet. He is going to be great as long as his team is patient. He is going to take more seasoning. Bagley will provide more immediate returns and the safer pick.

All this is kind of obvious to me. I hope its obvious to Vlade.

 

[bajaden]

The Kings were near the bottom of the league in defensive rebounds last year. A guy like Bagley could help.

Jaren Jackson was also a better defensive rebounder than offensive. Don't have exact numbers in front of me, but out of around 201 rebounds, close to 150 boards were defensvie. However, as I pointed out in another thread, I think his offensive rebounding would have been better if he hadn't been forced to play mostly on the perimeter on offense.

 

[midtowner]

If the Suns take Doncic, we should take Ayton. If the Suns take Ayton, we should take Bagley. Simple. This has been my stance since the night of the lottery and I don't see any reason to come off of it after watching a lot of tape on these guys. This is not being against Doncic, who I like a lot, this is being for players who are more likely to be dominant.

If you accept the premise that Doncic is better younger version of Boggy, ask yourself how much better is he? So is Doncic 30% better? 40% better? 100% better? I don't know if you can quantify.

Boggy is great as a passer out of the pick and roll. So is Doncic. Both are multi-position defenders. Boggy can guard 2s and 3s and low level 1s. Doncic will be able to guard 2s and 3s and low level 4s. Both have good awareness defensively. Fundamentally sound. Doncic may get clipped more often getting over picks because of his size. But he can do it.

Doncic is better getting the board and going coast-to-coast. He is better at carving space in the lane with his size. He probably has better foot speed, not that he is blazing. Boggy is the better catch and shoot guy and better off the ball. Though this aspect of Doncic's game will catch up with experience.

So the difference amounts to Doncic doing more at a younger age, height and weight. Doncic foremost skill if he has one is controlling tempo on offense, exploiting lanes and passing angles. He is not great at beating his man off the bounce but he does have decent juke moves that will work against more slow footed wings.

To maximize the ability of Doncic you have to take the ball out of the hands of Fox and Boggy. It could work. Sharing is caring. But I want the ball in Fox hand on the break and often in the half court sets. I want Boggy slicing and dicing.

How many cooks do we want in the kitchen? This is not a strong case against Doncic, because one cannot objectively be made, but variables to consider.

This brings me to Bagley. This kid destroyed the ACC at the tender age of 18 with a 31 PER 64% TS and 21.5% rebound rate....including 4 offensive rebounds per game! If you accept the premise we have three legitimate core players (Buddy, Boggy, Fox), and a bunch of guys still trying to figure it out, then ask how to best complement this trio?

Fox - superior athlete
Buddy - average athlete
Boggy - average athlete
----
Bagley - superior athlete
Doncic - average athlete

Do you want to add another average athlete in Doncic to our core? I am not thrilled by the idea of it. Bagley and Fox as superior athletes with good skill better complement our average athletes (Buddy, Boggy) with superior skill. I am all aboard with BPA but the pieces need to fit!

Another average athlete further relegates you to a half court style that this coach purports to be adverse to. The stats say otherwise.

If we are building around Fox, give him guys to run with. Thats Bagley. Bagley and Fox would be a devastating duo. Bagley can get you 15 PPG the first half of the season and probably 20 PPG in the second half with transition, half hooks, lobs, put backs and beneficiary of pick and roll with Boggy and Fox. He can a #1 option on offense. I mean, this is fairly obvious to me, if we are not so overly intrigued by the European Wonder Boy with duplicative skill set.

Baby Giraffe over at Sactown Royalty brought up the pace the Kings play despite having the fastest PG in the NBA. Our pace was dead last.

With Doncic, he is going to push it. He's going to run. But he's not going to beat you with his speed. He's savvy. He's going to make passes over the top in half court sets. Bagley is going to outrun you. He is going to clear the boards so we can run. He can defense rebound then fill the lane! From a stylistic standpoint, and to get the most out of Fox, Doncic is NOT the optimal choice with Bagley on the board.

Ayton is a more dominant version of Bagley with more defensive upside. He's not going to run the floor as well, but because of increased length and power, he is the obvious pick over Bagley. Ayton is the obvious choice for the Suns. Whether they do the obvious remains to be seen!

Jaren Jackson and Bamba project as better defenders than Bagley. Jackson is not going to be a hub offensively. He is Derrick Favors-like to me. He is 10 PPG 12 RPG with shot blocking. I want a more versatile scorer at #2. Bamba is a great prospect but there is more risk there with his high center of gravity. But he is coordinated with nice hands and feet. He is going to be great as long as his team is patient. He is going to take more seasoning. Bagley will provide more immediate returns and the safer pick.

Does Bagley’s free throw percentage concern you? Also good passing and decision making increases pace - so I don’t see Doncic as a drag on pace.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm not sold on Doncic. I love the kid but I'm not sure I see a star in the making. At the very best I think he could be a bigger but slower and less athletic James Harden. I think it's more likely that he's a high level role player/good starting quality wing. If he isn't the primary ballhandler at least a good chunk of the time I'm not sure he reaches that level.

Also, to the idea that you don't consider trading the #2 pick, here are the guys drafted in that slot since 2000:

2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers
2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

Only THREE of those players have ever made an all-NBA team. Durant obviously has made one nearly every year, LaMarcus Aldridge has made a few and Tyson Chandler once made the third team.

A lot of role players, some very noticeable busts, one all-star and one definite Hall-of-Famer. Not a sure thing by any stretch. If you could move down a couple slots and get extra pieces or picks while still getting a prospect you like a lot, or potentially trade it for a proven star, you absolutely have to consider it.

2nd/3rd Pick
2017 Ball/ Jason Tatum
2016 Ingram/ Jaylon Brown
2015 Russell/ Jahlil Okafor
2014 Parker/ Joel Embid
2013 Oladipo/ Otto Porter
2012 Gilchrist/ Bradley Beal
2011 Williams/ Kanter
2010 Turner/ Enes Kanter
2009 Thabeet/ James Harden
2008 Beasley/ Mayo
2007 Durant/ Al Horford
2006 Aldridge/ Adam Morrison
2005 Williams/ Deron Williams
2004 Okafor/ Ben Gordon
2003 Milicic/ Carmelo Anthony.

I think the message is if you are drafting 2 you are likely looking at an All-star. But don’t assume the 2nd sure thing is that guy. Do your homework, project forward, draft best player available.

 

[Kingster]

If the Suns take Doncic, we should take Ayton. If the Suns take Ayton, we should take Bagley. Simple. This has been my stance since the night of the lottery and I don't see any reason to come off of it after watching a lot of tape on these guys. This is not being against Doncic, who I like a lot, this is being for players who are more likely to be dominant.

If you accept the premise that Doncic is better younger version of Boggy, ask yourself how much better is he? So is Doncic 30% better? 40% better? 100% better? I don't know if you can quantify.

Boggy is great as a passer out of the pick and roll. So is Doncic. Both are multi-position defenders. Boggy can guard 2s and 3s and low level 1s. Doncic will be able to guard 2s and 3s and low level 4s. Both have good awareness defensively. Fundamentally sound. Doncic may get clipped more often getting over picks because of his size. But he can do it.

Doncic is better getting the board and going coast-to-coast. He is better at carving space in the lane with his size. He probably has better foot speed, not that he is blazing. Boggy is the better catch and shoot guy and better off the ball. Though this aspect of Doncic's game will catch up with experience.

So the difference amounts to Doncic doing more at a younger age, height and weight. Doncic foremost skill if he has one is controlling tempo on offense, exploiting lanes and passing angles. He is not great at beating his man off the bounce but he does have decent juke moves that will work against more slow footed wings.

To maximize the ability of Doncic you have to take the ball out of the hands of Fox and Boggy. It could work. Sharing is caring. But I want the ball in Fox hand on the break and often in the half court sets. I want Boggy slicing and dicing.

How many cooks do we want in the kitchen? This is not a strong case against Doncic, because one cannot objectively be made, but variables to consider.

This brings me to Bagley. This kid destroyed the ACC at the tender age of 18 with a 31 PER 64% TS and 21.5% rebound rate....including 4 offensive rebounds per game! If you accept the premise we have three legitimate core players (Buddy, Boggy, Fox), and a bunch of guys still trying to figure it out, then ask how to best complement this trio?

Fox - superior athlete
Buddy - average athlete
Boggy - average athlete
----
Bagley - superior athlete
Doncic - average athlete

Do you want to add another average athlete in Doncic to our core? I am not thrilled by the idea of it. Bagley and Fox as superior athletes with good skill better complement our average athletes (Buddy, Boggy) with superior skill. I am all aboard with BPA but the pieces need to fit!

Another average athlete further relegates you to a half court style that this coach purports to be adverse to. The stats say otherwise.

If we are building around Fox, give him guys to run with. Thats Bagley. Bagley and Fox would be a devastating duo. Bagley can get you 15 PPG the first half of the season and probably 20 PPG in the second half with transition, half hooks, lobs, put backs and beneficiary of pick and roll with Boggy and Fox. He can a #1 option on offense. I mean, this is fairly obvious to me, if we are not so overly intrigued by the European Wonder Boy with duplicative skill set.

Baby Giraffe over at Sactown Royalty brought up the pace the Kings play despite having the fastest PG in the NBA. Our pace was dead last.

With Doncic, he is going to push it. He's going to run. But he's not going to beat you with his speed. He's savvy. He's going to make passes over the top in half court sets. Bagley is going to outrun you. He is going to clear the boards so we can run. He can defense rebound then fill the lane! From a stylistic standpoint, and to get the most out of Fox, Doncic is NOT the optimal choice with Bagley on the board.

Ayton is a more dominant version of Bagley with more defensive upside. He's not going to run the floor as well, but because of increased length and power, he is the obvious pick over Bagley. Ayton is the obvious choice for the Suns. Whether they do the obvious remains to be seen!

Jaren Jackson and Bamba project as better defenders than Bagley. Jackson is not going to be a hub offensively. He is Derrick Favors-like to me. He is 10 PPG 12 RPG with shot blocking. I want a more versatile scorer at #2. Bamba is a great prospect but there is more risk there with his high center of gravity. But he is coordinated with nice hands and feet. He is going to be great as long as his team is patient. He is going to take more seasoning. Bagley will provide more immediate returns and the safer pick.

All this is kind of obvious to me. I hope its obvious to Vlade.

I agree with a lot of your post, especially the point about adding a mediocre athlete to a lot of mediocre athletes. But I actually feel more comfortable with Bagley than I do Ayton. I think that Ayton is going to be much more of a prototypical inside center, whereas Bagley I see with much more offensive versatility. Yes, Ayton should be more dominant inside than Bagley, but Bagley is going to be more dominant outside than Ayton, imo. I see Bagley eventually making the plays that a small forward can make - being a good enough ballhandler to make plays for others off the dribble, for example. I don't think Ayton will every do that. Also, there seemed to be too many times last year in which Ayton was pretty apathetic about the game. I didn't get that from Bagley.

 

[roasthawg]

Right now I kinda think it's between Porter and Bagley. Porter has the higher upside imo but a bunch more questions too. Bagley is healthy and ready to roll. He'd be a great add but just not sure if everything breaks right for him just how great he can be. Without being a long shot blocker on the defensive end his upside is kinda limited.

 

[funkykingston]

I have some reservations with Bagley's game (terrible defensive awareness, minimal rim protection as a big, lack of a right hand) but I think almost all of them are correctable on the next level. My larger concern is more about his value in today's NBA because in a vacuum I think Bagley's a stud.

In the case where the Kings run out two bigs Bagley makes sense as a PF. He's got the footspeed to stick with stretch 4's and he shores up the team's rebounding while also running the floor hard, scoring down low and having a lot of potential as a shooter and face up big. The downside is that you now have a team with Fox, Bagley and (presumably) Cauley-Stein starting leaving only Bogdanovic and whoever gets trotted out at SF to space the floor. That's problematic. And while Bagley has shown some ability to hit from the college corner, and WCS has a hit or miss midrange jumper, there's not a lot of floor spacing with that lineup, even if you go small with Buddy and Bogie.

So then you look at what Houston, GS, Boston and other teams do with one PG, three wings and a big. Bagley has the rebounding to be that big but otherwise I'd be terrified to have him be then only interior defender and rim protector. It's actually the ideal role for WCS if he'd ever buy into it and start playing tough and consistently rebound and defend instead of trying to be an offensive star. But back to Bagley. I love a lot about his game but he's not suited to be the only big in the lineup unless the idea is (like the Cavs with Love at C) that his great offensive production will offset the lack of having a defensive anchor. It also exacerbates the issue the Kings already have in terms of not only not having a starter quality SF, but also not having a stretch 4 or a large SF that can slide to the PF spot. Fox/Hield/Bogdanovic/Jackson/Bagley is going to get pushed around.

So that's where I'm at. I like Bagley at #2 but if he always has to be played alongside another big that limits the team's flexibility against the best teams in the league. And it still leaves the Kings with a giant hole at SF with a large collection of young & veteran bigs in Bagley, Cauley-Stein, Giles, Labissiere, Koufos and Randolph.

A trade down with Atlanta for #3 and #19 with the Kings drafting either Porter or Doncic at #3 and either Keita Bates-Diop or Chandler Hutchinson at #19 would give the Kings a more versatile, modern lineup/roster.

Still, I love Bagley. This is going to be a long few weeks until draft night.

 

[roasthawg]

I have some reservations with Bagley's game (terrible defensive awareness, minimal rim protection as a big, lack of a right hand) but I think almost all of them are correctable on the next level. My larger concern is more about his value in today's NBA because in a vacuum I think Bagley's a stud.

In the case where the Kings run out two bigs Bagley makes sense as a PF. He's got the footspeed to stick with stretch 4's and he shores up the team's rebounding while also running the floor hard, scoring down low and having a lot of potential as a shooter and face up big. The downside is that you now have a team with Fox, Bagley and (presumably) Cauley-Stein starting leaving only Bogdanovic and whoever gets trotted out at SF to space the floor. That's problematic. And while Bagley has shown some ability to hit from the college corner, and WCS has a hit or miss midrange jumper, there's not a lot of floor spacing with that lineup, even if you go small with Buddy and Bogie.

So then you look at what Houston, GS, Boston and other teams do with one PG, three wings and a big. Bagley has the rebounding to be that big but otherwise I'd be terrified to have him be then only interior defender and rim protector. It's actually the ideal role for WCS if he'd ever buy into it and start playing tough and consistently rebound and defend instead of trying to be an offensive star. But back to Bagley. I love a lot about his game but he's not suited to be the only big in the lineup unless the idea is (like the Cavs with Love at C) that his great offensive production will offset the lack of having a defensive anchor. It also exacerbates the issue the Kings already have in terms of not only not having a starter quality SF, but also not having a stretch 4 or a large SF that can slide to the PF spot. Fox/Hield/Bogdanovic/Jackson/Bagley is going to get pushed around.

So that's where I'm at. I like Bagley at #2 but if he always has to be played alongside another big that limits the team's flexibility against the best teams in the league. And it still leaves the Kings with a giant hole at SF with a large collection of young & veteran bigs in Bagley, Cauley-Stein, Giles, Labissiere, Koufos and Randolph.

A trade down with Atlanta for #3 and #19 with the Kings drafting either Porter or Doncic at #3 and either Keita Bates-Diop or Chandler Hutchinson at #19 would give the Kings a more versatile, modern lineup/roster.

Still, I love Bagley. This is going to be a long few weeks until draft night.

This is a great post, really sums up my hesitation with Bagley. Without him being a great rim protector to go along with his offense his upside seems to be limited. I'm really hoping Porter blows everyone away with his workouts cause on paper if he was healthy he's the higher upside guy imo.

 

[ESP47]

I think Bagley would make the Kings very watchable and much more exciting but I'm having trouble trying to figure out if you can win with him. I just feel like wings put so much more of a stamp on winning these days. Having Giles and Bagley back there would be fun as hell if it worked out but man it's just so much different than what other teams are running. You'd basically be trying to start a revolution but the odds of that revolution working out are low.

 

[beb0p]

I think Bagley would make the Kings very watchable and much more exciting but I'm having trouble trying to figure out if you can win with him. I just feel like wings put so much more of a stamp on winning these days. Having Giles and Bagley back there would be fun as hell if it worked out but man it's just so much different than what other teams are running. You'd basically be trying to start a revolution but the odds of that revolution working out are low.

I disagree, the NBA is always evolving, and seemingly things can turn in a single season. Roy Hibbert went from stud to relic in literally one playoff series (and his type of bigs went out of style soon after). Next thing you know, the small ball thing is out of fashion and any team that are trying to mimic it will be left in the dust.

I want the Kings to be different (the sane kind, not the 4 on 5 defense kind). Instead of mimicking them, the Kings should put together a team that can pound small ball lineups; and I think Bagley is the perfect player to do that - he is quick enough to guard stretch 4s/5s; and he can score and rebound like a real big. That's a headache for the other team - the whole point of using stretch bigs is to beat the slow plodding big men. When the opponent's big is quick, athletic, and can also pound your small ball bigs into submission, that's a huge problem for the opposing coaches. When Bagley and WCS or Giles are repeatedly out jumping opposing bigs on the offensive glass, the other teams have no choice but to match them; and then their offense will fall apart and the Kings will have defeated the small ball.

Now, I don't think Bagley is at that level defensively and I know Giles are probably not there yet. But the possibility of having two quick athletic bigs is tantalizing; especially if the Kings pair them with good shootings and defense. I think a lot of small ball teams will hate playing against them.

.

 

[Sac.Kings]

To those that watch the NCAA extensively and don't rely on highlights, what does Bagley's offense consist of? A lot of the highlights are dunks and pick and roll leads to the basket. What is he capable of? He looks far more fluid than Ayton to me, but is slightly smaller.

 

[Blob]

I think Bagley would make the Kings very watchable and much more exciting but I'm having trouble trying to figure out if you can win with him. I just feel like wings put so much more of a stamp on winning these days. Having Giles and Bagley back there would be fun as hell if it worked out but man it's just so much different than what other teams are running. You'd basically be trying to start a revolution but the odds of that revolution working out are low.

Watch this video and I think you will be persuaded on Bagley. I concur with this assessment 100%. The scout puts words to what my eyes see. Bagley has a motor that is unparalleled. He is relentless on the boards. His quick hops make up for his subpar wingspan. He and Doncic were born two weeks apart. I am totally sold on Bagley and have been since I first started scouting him.

He and Ayton have been my favorite players in the draft. When the Kings started winning and projected to be out of the Top 3 I started targeting Miles and Sexton. But our tremendous fortune allows us to get a potential All-NBA player instead of a potential all-star. Our fortune is incredible. I pray we do not botch it.

 

[Blob]

I agree with a lot of your post, especially the point about adding a mediocre athlete to a lot of mediocre athletes. But I actually feel more comfortable with Bagley than I do Ayton. I think that Ayton is going to be much more of a prototypical inside center, whereas Bagley I see with much more offensive versatility. Yes, Ayton should be more dominant inside than Bagley, but Bagley is going to be more dominant outside than Ayton, imo. I see Bagley eventually making the plays that a small forward can make - being a good enough ballhandler to make plays for others off the dribble, for example. I don't think Ayton will every do that. Also, there seemed to be too many times last year in which Ayton was pretty apathetic about the game. I didn't get that from Bagley.

Bagley has a nice shot too. His mechanics are lovely. He just didn't need to shoot it. He refused to settle when he knew he could attack inside. This will make him a versatile scorer and effective pick and pop man in spite of not having a well-developed right hand (yet).

If Buddy is going to settle into role as super sub, which may or may not be the case, the Kings need to define who is their dominant scorer. I think that can be Fox. He can be a 20 PPG scorer in this league as I have said from the outset. But I would rather that burden not be on him to carry the offense.

Bagley can most easily absorb this predominant scoring load than any prospect we are considering.

 

[Blob]

Does Bagley’s free throw percentage concern you? Also good passing and decision making increases pace - so I don’t see Doncic as a drag on pace.

I agree Doncic will not necessarily hinder pace but he is not a exactly speed demon in the open floor. I don't have a lot negative to say about Doncic, I just like Ayton and Bagley more. In fact, I might take Bamba before Doncic too. Then you pair Bamba with Julius Randle and destroy all comers at both ends of the floor.

 

[roasthawg]

Watch this video and I think you will be persuaded on Bagley. I concur with this assessment 100%. The scout puts words to what my eyes see. Bagley has a motor that is unparalleled. He is relentless on the boards. His quick hops make up for his subpar wingspan. He and Doncic were born two weeks apart. I am totally sold on Bagley and have been since I first started scouting him.

He and Ayton have been my favorite players in the draft. When the Kings started winning and projected to be out of the Top 3 I started targeting Miles and Sexton. But our tremendous fortune allows us to get a potential All-NBA player instead of a potential all-star. Our fortune is incredible. I pray we do not botch it.

That was a good video. This is such a tough spot...I really hope blade and co fall in love with one of these guys. They're really tough to separate imo. All with different strengths and weaknesses.