Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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I'm not sold on Doncic. I love the kid but I'm not sure I see a star in the making. At the very best I think he could be a bigger but slower and less athletic James Harden. I think it's more likely that he's a high level role player/good starting quality wing. If he isn't the primary ballhandler at least a good chunk of the time I'm not sure he reaches that level.
Also, to the idea that you don't consider trading the #2 pick, here are the guys drafted in that slot since 2000:
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers
2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies
Only THREE of those players have ever made an all-NBA team. Durant obviously has made one nearly every year, LaMarcus Aldridge has made a few and Tyson Chandler once made the third team.
A lot of role players, some very noticeable busts, one all-star and one definite Hall-of-Famer. Not a sure thing by any stretch. If you could move down a couple slots and get extra pieces or picks while still getting a prospect you like a lot, or potentially trade it for a proven star, you absolutely have to consider it.
Also, to the idea that you don't consider trading the #2 pick, here are the guys drafted in that slot since 2000:
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers
2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies
Only THREE of those players have ever made an all-NBA team. Durant obviously has made one nearly every year, LaMarcus Aldridge has made a few and Tyson Chandler once made the third team.
A lot of role players, some very noticeable busts, one all-star and one definite Hall-of-Famer. Not a sure thing by any stretch. If you could move down a couple slots and get extra pieces or picks while still getting a prospect you like a lot, or potentially trade it for a proven star, you absolutely have to consider it.
While I agree that we should stay at #2, if Atlanta offered their 2019 first and this years #3 for our number 2, I would really have to think long and hard about that.
I agree that we really need to concentrate on Quality over Quantity at this point, but if Vlade actually likes Bagley over Doncic and Atlanta tells them they would offer up the two first round picks to trade up one spot for Doncic, I think we should consider it.
But, if Vlade is in love with Doncic, we keep the #2 and take Doncic.
It really depends on who Vlade covets. That is why he needs to put up smoke screens, to see what offers are on the table.
But in any scenario, I would not trade down past #3.
I agree that we really need to concentrate on Quality over Quantity at this point, but if Vlade actually likes Bagley over Doncic and Atlanta tells them they would offer up the two first round picks to trade up one spot for Doncic, I think we should consider it.
But, if Vlade is in love with Doncic, we keep the #2 and take Doncic.
It really depends on who Vlade covets. That is why he needs to put up smoke screens, to see what offers are on the table.
But in any scenario, I would not trade down past #3.
The player that Doncic reminds me of is actually Klay Thompson. Smooth and controlled wing player. Not ultra athletic, but knows how to really play the game. Both really high basketball IQs. Doncic is a better passer though and Klay a better long range shooter.
Could a Klay Thompson-esq player be a franchise player or the best player on a championship caliber team? I'm not sure, but he would sure be a very solid All-Star level player for many, many years in the modern NBA.
Could a Klay Thompson-esq player be a franchise player or the best player on a championship caliber team? I'm not sure, but he would sure be a very solid All-Star level player for many, many years in the modern NBA.
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I agree. I hope the emoji showed I wasn't being entirely serious -- Ainge's ability to extract value by trading out of the top-2 of a "top 2 consensus" draft last year, while still landing what looks to be one of the top two prospects from that draft, should be instructive.
You need to rank the prospects in tiers and feel very comfortable about that -- and if you're able to get extra value by trading down and still selecting someone in the same tier, do it.
Interestingly enough, most folks here seem to be talking about trading down from taking Doncic, but if you look at the Stepien (the best draft site around in my book), they have Doncic on his own tier, but would seem to advise trading down from Ayton at two.
You need to rank the prospects in tiers and feel very comfortable about that -- and if you're able to get extra value by trading down and still selecting someone in the same tier, do it.
Interestingly enough, most folks here seem to be talking about trading down from taking Doncic, but if you look at the Stepien (the best draft site around in my book), they have Doncic on his own tier, but would seem to advise trading down from Ayton at two.
You never know.
If Atlanta is really in love with Doncic, they may give up the farm for him.
Who would had thought that Philly would trade our unprotected 2019 draft pick to move up 2 spots to take Fultz last year?
Although Atlanta may not make the offer, I could see Memphis trying to trade their future first to move up from #4 to #2. That would be a tougher decision though, because I would be hard pressed to give up a shot at Ayton/Doncic/Bagley for the #4 and a 2019 first rounder. I think I would keep the #2 in this case.
If Atlanta is really in love with Doncic, they may give up the farm for him.
Who would had thought that Philly would trade our unprotected 2019 draft pick to move up 2 spots to take Fultz last year?
Although Atlanta may not make the offer, I could see Memphis trying to trade their future first to move up from #4 to #2. That would be a tougher decision though, because I would be hard pressed to give up a shot at Ayton/Doncic/Bagley for the #4 and a 2019 first rounder. I think I would keep the #2 in this case.
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I'm impressed that you looked it up. So to be honest, I didn't hear or read Scot saying such a thing about Buddy. What I heard was Grant saying that Scot said he would be a bust in the NBA because he can't get his own shot. And Grant repeated it a few times. But there may have been something lost in translation. Like Scot could have said "he could be a bust if he can't get his own shot..."
Right now I have Ayton #1 and Bagley #2
Despite the talk of trading the pick I think the strong odds are that Phoenix takes Ayton. And even if they did trade the pick I think the team picking at #1 would still be trading up for Ayton.
Looking at the top names in this draft I think in terms of the chance of being a star player it goes:
1. Bagley
2. Ayton
3. Porter
4. Young
5. Jackson
6. Sexton
7. Doncic
8. Bamba
9. Carter
10. Smith/Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Miles Bridges
12. Mikal Bridges
Bagley and Young also carry a high bust potential IMO and Porter carries both a major injury risk as well as maybe the biggest adjustment other than Mitchell Robinson after essentially missing the whole year. That didn't seem to affect Kyrie but they are very different players.
I think the safest picks are Ayton, Jackson, Doncic, Carter, Doncic, and Mikal Bridges.
And I really like Doncic, I just have a hard time seeing his path to stardom as opposed to being a solid starter or high level role player. Same thing with Jackson though his age and physical tools give him a bigger window to evolving into a significantly better player than what we've seen so far.
So why Bagley? Because I think the Kings have to swing for the fences and because I think the odds are better that he'll be a star than a bust. Somewhere between Chris Bosh and a young/healthy Amar'e or McDyess.
And I don't even think (barring injury) that he can be a Darko or Anthony Bennett level bust. I think a bust for him would be to continue to be lost on defense and really only contribute as a hustle/energy guy. The type of bust that is an early disappoinent but still plays in the league 12-14 years.
Despite the talk of trading the pick I think the strong odds are that Phoenix takes Ayton. And even if they did trade the pick I think the team picking at #1 would still be trading up for Ayton.
Looking at the top names in this draft I think in terms of the chance of being a star player it goes:
1. Bagley
2. Ayton
3. Porter
4. Young
5. Jackson
6. Sexton
7. Doncic
8. Bamba
9. Carter
10. Smith/Gilgeous-Alexander
11. Miles Bridges
12. Mikal Bridges
Bagley and Young also carry a high bust potential IMO and Porter carries both a major injury risk as well as maybe the biggest adjustment other than Mitchell Robinson after essentially missing the whole year. That didn't seem to affect Kyrie but they are very different players.
I think the safest picks are Ayton, Jackson, Doncic, Carter, Doncic, and Mikal Bridges.
And I really like Doncic, I just have a hard time seeing his path to stardom as opposed to being a solid starter or high level role player. Same thing with Jackson though his age and physical tools give him a bigger window to evolving into a significantly better player than what we've seen so far.
So why Bagley? Because I think the Kings have to swing for the fences and because I think the odds are better that he'll be a star than a bust. Somewhere between Chris Bosh and a young/healthy Amar'e or McDyess.
And I don't even think (barring injury) that he can be a Darko or Anthony Bennett level bust. I think a bust for him would be to continue to be lost on defense and really only contribute as a hustle/energy guy. The type of bust that is an early disappoinent but still plays in the league 12-14 years.
This is becoming norm for the top 4 or 5 guys. Skipping measurements is commonplace for them since if they get measured differently (in a negative way) from what their reports say then that could affect their draft stock. For example, Marvin Bagley is listed at just over 6'11 with a 7 foot wingspan. If he got measured in front of all lottery teams at just over 6'9 with a 6'10 wingspan that could affect where he goes in the draft. Sliding from 3 to 5 could cost him millions. He's already almost a lock to go top 3 so why bother to do it? Whereas someone like Bamba can benefit greatly from it to move up a few spots.
He will still get measured in private by us if we choose to meet with him which we absolutely should. So until then he is still a lock at 2/3 for me.
He will still get measured in private by us if we choose to meet with him which we absolutely should. So until then he is still a lock at 2/3 for me.
I'm almost on board for Bagley -- I like the speed and athleticism of a Giles/Bagley frontcourt and I don't care all that much that neither one is a traditional center. More and more that position seems to be going away anyway unless you're lucky enough to snag an Embiid or Ayton at the top of the draft or uncover a surprise star like Jokic. But someone is going to have to sell me on how he can improve defensively from where he's at now. He doesn't need to be a two-way star but somewhere north of "complete liability" would be nice. Especially since I don't see how we're going to pull ourselves out of the depths of defensive incompetence if we're adding another defensive liability and playing him 36-40 minutes per game.
I find it interesting that no one mentions Jaren Jackson in the equation. I realize he was hard to get a read on because of how he was used, and the foul trouble that plagued him, but I think he's as talented as any of the other top three or four players. If, after analysis, you can't find a sure winner in your mind out of Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, and Jackson, then why not trade down a couple of spots and pick up another asset. But if you think there's a sure separation between Ayton, Doncic and the rest of the top picks, then you stand pat and take whose left between the two.
I'm not sure why you feel that way. Willie is a proven NBA player, who may be on the verge of a break out year (maybe). Whomever we pick, will have some adjusting to do. None of them are going to waltz in and dominate at the center position. Lets say we pick Ayton. Why not move Willie to the PF position where he has traditionally put up better numbers. People forget that's the position he played at Kentucky when he was paired with Towns. Or, you could move Willie to the backup center position and let Giles take over the PF position. After next year, unless he's resigned, Koufos is gone. I still don't have confidence in Skal.
So at the end of the day we could be left with just Ayton, Willie, and Giles as our big's. So I don't see why it becomes necessary to trade Willie just because we draft another big man. I might add, that Willie is exactly the type of big man that everyone in the league is looking for. Athletic, runs the floor and can defend on the perimeter. Willie isn't a great rebounder, but he did average 7 a game last season, and as I pointed out, only 11 NBA players averaged double digit rebounds last season.
So at the end of the day we could be left with just Ayton, Willie, and Giles as our big's. So I don't see why it becomes necessary to trade Willie just because we draft another big man. I might add, that Willie is exactly the type of big man that everyone in the league is looking for. Athletic, runs the floor and can defend on the perimeter. Willie isn't a great rebounder, but he did average 7 a game last season, and as I pointed out, only 11 NBA players averaged double digit rebounds last season.
Except for ATLANTAs first rounder the next year will likely be a top 15 or maybe 5-10. It would have to depend on who the Kings were aiming for....and if Atlanta was willing to divulge who they were after, and then of course who the Suns pick - several conditions. If it turned out the player the Kings wanted is not who the Hawks wanted and both are available, then absolutely go for it. Its a bit of a crap shoot anywho....why not get the guy you want (if the situation is right) and secure another pick?
I think my biggest reservation about JJJ is that his per 40 minute averages for fouls was I think about 5.9 per game. This would mean he would have fouled out of most every college game, if the coach allowed him to stay in every game. He only played like 20 minutes per game because of his foul troubles.
My concern is his BBIQ and his ability to stay on the floor the whole game. If he could control the fouling aspect of his game, so he can stay on the floor, then he could be a monster. But if you tone down his defense and fouling, does that make him less effective as a front line defender and his overall value?
If we traded down to #4 or #5, then I would definitely take a good hard look at him. But at #2, he seems to risky because of his fouling and ability to stay on the floor.
My concern is his BBIQ and his ability to stay on the floor the whole game. If he could control the fouling aspect of his game, so he can stay on the floor, then he could be a monster. But if you tone down his defense and fouling, does that make him less effective as a front line defender and his overall value?
If we traded down to #4 or #5, then I would definitely take a good hard look at him. But at #2, he seems to risky because of his fouling and ability to stay on the floor.
The positive thing with Willie is that last season he posted career highs in total rebounds and points. However, he still doesn't offer much in the way of rim protection and his total rebounds is still a single digit average using per36. If Willie is going to be a long term piece he either needs to up the ante and get more rebounds and be a more committed rim protector, or we need to pair him with someone that can do that side of things.
In today's era with positionless basketball it doesn't really matter whether he's a PF or a C because those match ups and assignments will vary. In a sense that's possibly a reason to draft someone like Jaren Jackson because he can protect the rim and shoot there's, which are two areas that Willie doesn't really contribute to the team at this point. However, I'm not totally sold on picking Jackson second overall.
I was surprised at that stat and Willie ranked 36th in total rebounds this season.
In today's era with positionless basketball it doesn't really matter whether he's a PF or a C because those match ups and assignments will vary. In a sense that's possibly a reason to draft someone like Jaren Jackson because he can protect the rim and shoot there's, which are two areas that Willie doesn't really contribute to the team at this point. However, I'm not totally sold on picking Jackson second overall.
I was surprised at that stat and Willie ranked 36th in total rebounds this season.
My thought is that Willie is a FA after next season. My guess is that he'll improve but not make a huge leap and the Kings will be left trying to figure out whether to overpay to keep him or let him go.
I'd more be looking to deal WCS for a SF, either as a draft pick or a player with more than one year left on their deal. It isn't just a move to clear up a log jam of bigs, it's to get value for an asset.
I'd more be looking to deal WCS for a SF, either as a draft pick or a player with more than one year left on their deal. It isn't just a move to clear up a log jam of bigs, it's to get value for an asset.
This. I’ve been harsh on Willie in the past but I have a fear that he will go somewhere else and blossom into what he could be here. I believe it will take a trade or one of the younger bigs breaking out and taking his minutes to force him to play the right way consistently, here’s hoping we don’t gamble on his potential and lose him for scraps at the trade deadline or let him walk.
I sometimes feel like you and I are the only ones on Willie’s side.
I also don’t understand why some foolishly believe that WCS needs to be traded if Ayton is drafted. Trill is much better suited for PF and has stated that’s where he feels most comfortable.
There’s nothing wrong with an Ayton, Trill, and Giles rotation. Trill brings skills the others don’t possess at the same level and vice versa.
Once Trill is part of a good team, people will finally realize his value.
I also don’t understand why some foolishly believe that WCS needs to be traded if Ayton is drafted. Trill is much better suited for PF and has stated that’s where he feels most comfortable.
There’s nothing wrong with an Ayton, Trill, and Giles rotation. Trill brings skills the others don’t possess at the same level and vice versa.
Once Trill is part of a good team, people will finally realize his value.
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