Luka Doncic

[ockingsfan]

You're forming an argument against me based on something that I never even said. Where is this talk about ball handling and ball dominance? I said that Fox and Doncic more than likely won't be able to coexist and you're assuming that I'm talking about it's because they both handle the ball even though I specifically mentioned shooting in the post above and made no mention of ball handling.

You're comparing apples to oranges here. For one, you're giving me a list that has what, 6 of the 10 best players on the planet? Not to mention that they're all great 3 point shooters sans Lebron, who is only one of the best players of all time. Those guys playing along side each other has nothing to do with the Kings situation.

All of those guys, sans Lebron, are great 3 point shooters. Fox is not. Will Fox ever become one? I don't know. Odds are that he won't wind up shooting a handful of them a game at a 40% clip like a lot of those guys mentioned. It's one of the biggest knocks on his game. It's real easy to say that all Fox has to do is learn to play off the ball and become a good shooter to be able to form a formidable duo with Doncic but you're asking him to turn all the weakest parts of his game into his biggest strengths. That's wishful thinking if you ask me. Not an impossibility but certainly not something I'd be putting money on happening.

I really don't see anything in Fox's shot that tells me it's broken and that he can't become a respectable 3 point shooter. He won't ever be a Curry type shooter, but there is no reason he can't develop into a Kyle Lowry or John Wall level shooter.

Fox is known as a hard worker and gym rat so I think he will be able to develop his shot in 1-2 years. Once he gets the 3 point shot consistent, it will be very difficult to guard him.

Personally, I have faith in Fox to develop and get better every year.

Doncic's 3 point shot looks fine to me and it will also improve with experience.

 

[kingsboi]

From what I recall, Fran Fraschilla doesn't think Doncic should be your primary PG.

Here's what Mike Schmitz said about Doncic in his latest ESPN article

I think Doncic should be your primary ball handler. However, I think you should have a PG next to him. Just a speedster who can drive and dish, but also play off-ball. DX alluded to this, I'd definitely put him in a James Harden role.

if Doncic is your primary ball handler, does that make Fox useless unless he develops a jumpshot and is able to move without the ball? Let's not forget Bogs would share ball handling duties as well because that's where he excels

 

[ockingsfan]

if Doncic is your primary ball handler, does that make Fox useless unless he develops a jumpshot and is able to move without the ball? Let's not forget Bogs would share ball handling duties as well because that's where he excels

I think that is where Bogs would be more valuable coming off the bench as your super 6th man.

Then Buddy can start and be our dead eye 3 point bomber in the starting line up.

 

[206Fan]

if Doncic is your primary ball handler, does that make Fox useless unless he develops a jumpshot and is able to move without the ball? Let's not forget Bogs would share ball handling duties as well because that's where he excels

Yeah it does. But if he never learns to shoot or move without the ball, then he's a fringe starting PG in the NBA anyways.

Bogs will have a minimized role, probably backup PG. I don't see Fox-Bogdan-Doncic working out. That's way too many ball dominant players.

 

[kingsboi]

Yeah it does. But if he never learns to shoot or move without the ball, then he's a fringe starting PG in the NBA anyways.

Bogs will have a minimized role, probably backup PG. I don't see Fox-Bogdan-Doncic working out. That's way too many ball dominant players.

which is precisely why the Kings won't have to worry about such a line up because they won't have a chance at Luka anyway

 

[ESP47]

I really don't see anything in Fox's shot that tells me it's broken and that he can't become a respectable 3 point shooter. He won't ever be a Curry type shooter, but there is no reason he can't develop into a Kyle Lowry or John Wall level shooter.

Fox is known as a hard worker and gym rat so I think he will be able to develop his shot in 1-2 years. Once he gets the 3 point shot consistent, it will be very difficult to guard him.

Personally, I have faith in Fox to develop and get better every year.

Doncic's 3 point shot looks fine to me and it will also improve with experience.

I don't think his shot is broken either but we have 2 full years of data that tells us he can't shoot so I'm not going to put all my eggs in the Fox will be able to shoot in the future basket just based on a hunch.

The reason why I like Bogie is because he can play with anybody. If you put the ball in his hands, he can make some plays. If you take the ball out of his hands, he can knock down shots. We have no idea if Fox is going to be like that but the data up until this points suggests that his shooting is an issue and it doesn't always magically clear up just because a player practices a lot or because us fans want it to.

 

[ockingsfan]

I don't think his shot is broken either but we have 2 full years of data that tells us he can't shoot so I'm not going to put all my eggs in the Fox will be able to shoot in the future basket just based on a hunch.

Fox shot the 3s pretty well in high school.

Here is the thing about Fox's game, he is so ultra fast that he could get to the basket so easily in high school and college, that he never had to work on his outside shot. I think once he puts more time and practice into it, which he knows he has to, he can become a consistent 35-40% 3 point shooter over time.

Just like DMC had no outside shot at first, because he was so dominant in the paint all through college, until he worked on it in the NBA.

 

["The Serbian Sniper"]

I guess Luka is on watch list again, after draft lottery. Euroleague f4 starts in 2 days (18th May), Real Madrid is playing in semifinal game against CSKA (9pm european, i guess thats something about 3pm US/NY? Maybe someone can correct me if i made a mistake). Final game is in May 20th. It will be interesting to see what can Doncic do in games with high pressure on his back...

 

[Chupacabra]

I had to go and break down some Doncic footage, here is what I've found so far: Not super quick, but he doesn't look slow to me. He shows quick feet with his step backs and has some really nice jab step moves. His ability to free up his jumper in 1v1 situations is really good. He does a great job of sensing which direction his opponent's momentum is going. I would honestly say that he has very good handles for a 6'8 player, no concern there. When you absorb everything he can do it's tough to knock him for not being able to 'wow' you with athleticism. He plays with a high degree of awareness and is always in attack mode. He really doesn't waste a lot of movement. He looks like a great prospect before you even account for his age. As a 19 year old, however, he is amazing. I think there is a fair chance that he is going to be a dominant player. For me, his worst case scenario is an above average starter. Once I remember that he is 19 and clowning euro pros I doubt that the worst case scenario is what will play out. He is too tough of a cover and too confident to fizzle out.

 

[Hansel]

He's gonna be close to ASG level from day one.
Unfortunately he'll be the first pick.

 

[ParniValjak]

He's gonna be close to ASG level from day one.
Unfortunately he'll be the first pick.

While I would prefer Ayton, I think that some of the comments here about Luka in the last couple of days are way off the mark. People are saying his 3pt % is not great but he is a better shooter at the same age than Bogdan was. Better passer, better rebounder just overall a better, more talented player.

Dončić will be a rookie that will be in the running for ROY. He will be a triple double threat if given the freedom to create.

My question marks on Dončić are whether or not he can be a #1 guy on a contender which is what the Kings lack and why I favor Ayton for the Kings. If we already had that player on our roster, I am picking Dončić and feeling pretty bloody good about it.

What Dončić is doing at his age has never been done by any other European legend. Dražen Petrović was nowhere near this good at 19, neither was Dirk, nor Ginnobili, nor Stojaković, nor Porzingis, or either of the Gasol brothers.

Dončić is just in a league of his own when it comes to what he has achieved at the age of 19. If Real Madrid manage to upset Fener on Sunday, there is literally nothing else that would be left for him to achieve in Europe and that is as a 19 year old. It is just insane.

 

[Dime Dropper]

He's gonna be close to ASG level from day one.
Unfortunately he'll be the first pick.

I believe Ayton is the likely choice at 1 for a variety of reasons, which is why I have kept quiet about him since the lottery. But my opinion on him is clear from my previous posts about him. He will be dominant, I do not care about his current weaknesses defensively or the supposed "lack of motor." If we come out of this with Ayton, everyone should be ecstatic, even if they do prefer Doncic.

But I agree. Doncic is going to play at an extremely high level from the outset. He should be very productive, at least 14/5/3 in somewhat limited minutes. Maybe not all-star level right away, but quickly on the way there. His step-back is already unguardable, and I absolutely guarantee that will continue in the NBA after an adjustment period. It's crazy how much space he regularly creates with it.

 

[rosa u podne]

While I would prefer Ayton, I think that some of the comments here about Luka in the last couple of days are way off the mark. People are saying his 3pt % is not great but he is a better shooter at the same age than Bogdan was. Better passer, better rebounder just overall a better, more talented player.

Dončić will be a rookie that will be in the running for ROY. He will be a triple double threat if given the freedom to create.

My question marks on Dončić are whether or not he can be a #1 guy on a contender which is what the Kings lack and why I favor Ayton for the Kings. If we already had that player on our roster, I am picking Dončić and feeling pretty bloody good about it.

What Dončić is doing at his age has never been done by any other European legend. Dražen Petrović was nowhere near this good at 19, neither was Dirk, nor Ginnobili, nor Stojaković, nor Porzingis, or either of the Gasol brothers.

Dončić is just in a league of his own when it comes to what he has achieved at the age of 19. If Real Madrid manage to upset Fener on Sunday, there is literally nothing else that would be left for him to achieve in Europe and that is as a 19 year old. It is just insane.

Actually, Drazen Petrovic was even better, he dominated European competition at that age.

 

[206Fan]

It's really neat to see how Doncic has changed his game throughout the last couple of years.
As a 16/17yearold with limited PT, he looked very impressive. He had a knack for PnR passing and showed off his great vision. He looked like an oversized 6'7 PG.
As a 17/18yearold, he got more minutes and became a legitimate pass-first player. Continued to showcase his facilitating with a few fancy passes in between. He looked to create for others rather than score. He was regarded as a big 6'7 PG. At the end of that season, he played for the Slovenian national team in the summer. Oddly enough, he became a score-first player instead. Actively looked to create his own shot. He showed a completely changed himself from a playmaker into a scorer.
As an 18/19yearold(this season), he continue that transition as a score-first player. After a couple solid games to start the season, he exploded for 20pts+ in 3 or 4 consecutive games. After a while, he cooled down. This was the first time we saw a Doncic go from a 6'7 playmaker to a 6'7 scorer. However, he never hit that same peak again, and reverted back into a passer(although not the same level of a playmaker we saw at 17yearsold). This time he became a balanced scorer and playmaker. That's what we saw for most of this season. He looked more like a point-forward.

So now, I think we're starting to see what type of player Doncic is. He's a 6'8 point-forward. It's a very interesting timeline of growth for him. I don't think he'll massively change his style of play from here on out, he'll continue to get better.

I think he plays like the less athletic version of Gordon Hayward.

 

[ParniValjak]

Offensively, Doncic can really play any way you need him to play. Want him to initiate your offense and be a pass first player? Sure! Want him to be a scorer? He can do that no problem.

He is similar to Bogdan in that regard. Not sure he is selfish enough to be that elite scorer but he can score when needed. Offensively he is almost a complete player. A jack of all trades. Now while his skill level is really advanced for his age, some of those same skills have another level to get to IMHO.

You are getting a really really good player. A multi-dimensional player offensively. Question is, can he be an alpha dog at the next level? Another question is can he improve enough athletically to get to the Harden/Curry level where is it good enough to execute his skills? If the answer is yes to both of those questions, then you take him.

Gordon Hayward is a great player but he is no perennial all-star.

 

[Old-School]

Offensively, Doncic can really play any way you need him to play. Want him to initiate your offense and be a pass first player? Sure! Want him to be a scorer? He can do that no problem.

He is similar to Bogdan in that regard. Not sure he is selfish enough to be that elite scorer but he can score when needed. Offensively he is almost a complete player. A jack of all trades. Now while his skill level is really advanced for his age, some of those same skills have another level to get to IMHO.

You are getting a really really good player. A multi-dimensional player offensively. Question is, can he be an alpha dog at the next level? Another question is can he improve enough athletically to get to the Harden/Curry level where is it good enough to execute his skills? If the answer is yes to both of those questions, then you take him.

Gordon Hayward is a great player but he is no perennial all-star.

 

[Old-School]

From what I have seen of Doncic he really reminds me of Larry Bird. At 19 years 3 months, what was Bird like? You can not teach that kind of Basketball IQ. It's a freaking gift. You see the court unfold before other players do. I am 70 and have watched a lot of NBA BB. Get him at any cost.

 

[allrightythen]

From what I have seen of Doncic he really reminds me of Larry Bird. At 19 years 3 months, what was Bird like? You can not teach that kind of Basketball IQ. It's a freaking gift. You see the court unfold before other players do. I am 70 and have watched a lot of NBA BB. Get him at any cost.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't like the Gordon Hayward comparison because it invites these "that's it?" type of comparisons. Hayward can score and he's got some playmaking skills but he hasn't been a primary ballhandler. He was more of a catch and shoot guy at Butler. Until his breakout All Star season last year he was seen as a complimentary scorer. Doncic also has a talent for drawing fouls which is hugely important for him to meet his potential as a #1 option. So if you want to say he's like a bigger Hayward but with a PG mentality, more aggressive attacking the basket, and a much better ability to shoot off the dribble you'd be getting somewhere but at that point why make the comparison at all?

I don't like the Lonzo Ball comparison either because Lonzo has no midrange game to speak of and creating pullups and step backs in the midrange has been a huge part of Luka's offense. He's got some of the same court vision but he likes to have the ball in his hands more. Lonzo is an expert in the long range outlet pass and I haven't seen a lot of that from Doncic (someone correct me if he does that in the games I didn't watch). Somewhere between Ginobili and Harden but with a SF body is kindof where I see him ending up. He's going to toy with defenders like Harden does and while he might not have the same blow-by ability to get all the way into the lane he makes up for it with craftiness and a knack for seeing the floor and finding the easy pass even when it doesn't appear to be there.

The real separation for me though between Luka and the rest of this draft class is his unbelievably advanced feel for the game. I've watched a lot of basketball to this point in my life. There are prospects that wow me every year with their athletic ability but it's pretty rare to watch an 18 year old and think "how did he even see that play was there?" He might not have the longest wingspan or the highest vertical leap or a chiseled muscular body or ideal shooting form but nobody in this draft matches him in flair for the game. Maybe we haven't seen an NBA superstar yet from Europe but the way basketball has exploded internationally in the last 20 years you have to figure its only a matter of time. Giannis is knocking on the door already. And as a son of a Serbian League professional player who's spent his entire life on a basketball court, I think Luka is a strong bet to be the next in what will likely be a long line of star players from that part of the world. Look at how baseball is dominated now by players from Central and South America and more recently from Japan and Korea. Eastern Europe seems to have embraced basketball the way those regions have embraced baseball.

So in that respect "yeah but it hasn't happened before" is a pretty weak counter-argument in my eyes. The world changes. Past events do not necessarily predict future events. We've had an ever increasing number of All Star level players from Euroleague teams already. Once the talent pool is deep enough to produce multiple All Stars, that truly transcendent superstar will be coming eventually. I think winning the MVP award at age 19 is a pretty good sign that we're witnessing something that we haven't seen before. This kid has something exceptional that you can't teach and I will bet on that kind of talent any day of the week.

 

[206Fan]

I don't like the Gordon Hayward comparison because it invites these "that's it?" type of comparisons. Hayward can score and he's got some playmaking skills but he hasn't been a primary ballhandler. He was more of a catch and shoot guy at Butler. Until his breakout All Star season last year he was seen as a complimentary scorer. Doncic also has a talent for drawing fouls which is hugely important for him to meet his potential as a #1 option. So if you want to say he's like a bigger Hayward but with a PG mentality, more aggressive attacking the basket, and a much better ability to shoot off the dribble you'd be getting somewhere but at that point why make the comparison at all?

I'm comparing current Hayward to Doncic, not Butler Hayward. Hayward is just as aggressive as attacking the rim as Doncic. I'm also not sure why you think Doncic is better at shooting of the dribble, I'd give that edge to Hayward by a large margin. As a matter of fact, I question Doncic's ability to create consistently. Have you watched Hayward the last few years? He's not just some catch and shoot player... Most of his points come from creating off the dribble. He's played point-forward for Utah. He attacks the rim more than Doncic does. In the last 3 years, Hayward has averaged 6 FTA/game compared to 10 2PTA/game. So I'm not sure where this narrative of Hayward not being a good shot creator or slasher comes from? I actually think Doncic settles way too much for step back jumpers and struggles to consistently attack the rim, but that's just my eyes.

You're acting like it's some kind of insult to compare Doncic to Hayward. I compare them because I see them as both 6'8 point-forward with good passing and some ability to score. Maybe you need to watch some Hayward highlights. You should be happy if Doncic turned out as good as Hayward.

For what it's worth, Bogdan averaged 3 FTA/game in Europe. He's only averaged 1.5 FTA/game in the NBA. Doncic is at 5 FTA.

 

[Joshoua]

I'm comparing current Hayward to Doncic, not Butler Hayward. Hayward is just as aggressive as attacking the rim as Doncic. I'm also not sure why you think Doncic is better at shooting of the dribble, I'd give that edge to Hayward by a large margin. As a matter of fact, I question Doncic's ability to create consistently. Have you watched Hayward the last few years? He's not just some catch and shoot player... Most of his points come from creating off the dribble. He's played point-forward for Utah. He attacks the rim more than Doncic does. In the last 3 years, Hayward has averaged 6 FTA/game compared to 10 2PTA/game. So I'm not sure where this narrative of Hayward not being a good shot creator or slasher comes from? I actually think Doncic settles way too much for step back jumpers and struggles to consistently attack the rim, but that's just my eyes.

You're acting like it's some kind of insult to compare Doncic to Hayward. I compare them because I see them as both 6'8 point-forward with good passing and some ability to score. Maybe you need to watch some Hayward highlights. You should be happy if Doncic turned out as good as Hayward.

For what it's worth, Bogdan averaged 3 FTA/game in Europe. He's only averaged 1.5 FTA/game in the NBA. Doncic is at 5 FTA.

Agreed on everything and Doncic is very good at getting fouls and contact

 

[hrdboild]

I'm comparing current Hayward to Doncic, not Butler Hayward. Hayward is just as aggressive as attacking the rim as Doncic. I'm also not sure why you think Doncic is better at shooting of the dribble, I'd give that edge to Hayward by a large margin. As a matter of fact, I question Doncic's ability to create consistently. Have you watched Hayward the last few years? He's not just some catch and shoot player... Most of his points come from creating off the dribble. He's played point-forward for Utah. He attacks the rim more than Doncic does. In the last 3 years, Hayward has averaged 6 FTA/game compared to 10 2PTA/game. So I'm not sure where this narrative of Hayward not being a good shot creator or slasher comes from? I actually think Doncic settles way too much for step back jumpers and struggles to consistently attack the rim, but that's just my eyes.

You're acting like it's some kind of insult to compare Doncic to Hayward. I compare them because I see them as both 6'8 point-forward with good passing and some ability to score. Maybe you need to watch some Hayward highlights. You should be happy if Doncic turned out as good as Hayward.

For what it's worth, Bogdan averaged 3 FTA/game in Europe. He's only averaged 1.5 FTA/game in the NBA. Doncic is at 5 FTA.

I don't like the comparison because it fails to account for growth curves. If Gordon Hayward were as good at 19 years old as he was last year at 27 years old, how much better would we expect him to be after 8 years of working on his game? He wasn't playing point forward in college and he had more turnovers than assists in his sophomore season. The reason I bring up Hayward's college production is that we're trying to extrapolate what Doncic's potential is not just how good we expect him to be as a rookie. There's no narrative of Hayward not being a good slasher or shot creator, I'm just saying that he wasn't reliably doing either at a high level until his 4th or 5th year in the league. That's a credit to him that he kept improving every year and it's why he's made himself into an All Star level player but as prospects there's no comparison. Luka might be 80% right now as a 19 year old of the player that Gordon Hayward is in his prime.

As for the free throw issue, you're ignoring minutes played. Bogdan averaged 4 FTA per 36 minutes his last season in the Euroleague as a 24 year old. Luka was 18 most of the year and he averaged 7.2 FTA per 36 minutes and in fact led the entire league in FTA this year. In the championship game last Sunday he struggled with his jumper a bit but got to the line 10 times. That's what I want to see in a scorer -- those are free points if you can get them and he showed all season long that he was better at drawing fouls than any of his peers. I don't think you can directly translate these numbers from one league to the other, it's just an encouraging sign in his favor. The court opens up a bit more in the NBA so there's more room for crafty ballhandlers to get into defenders with a head of steam. There's also a lot of questionable contact called in the favor of the offense lately. You have to play aggressively though to get those kinds of calls. I think Bogdan will end up closer to his Euroleague numbers as he gets more comfortable in the league and starts to attack more and I expect Doncic to be in the top 10% in that category once he settles in too.

 

[King Baller]

Watching Doncic I see an occasional flash of Jason "White Chocolate" Williams. His passing and ball handing is extraordinary to a level not seen often even in the NBA. And he is a couple of inches taller than Bogi. IMO picking Doncic is a no brainer if the Suns pick Ayton. Then the Kings can sign the best wing defender out there as a FA because scoring should be in good shape with Buddy, Bogi, Fox, Skal and Doncic.

 

[mac]

I don't like the Gordon Hayward comparison because it invites these "that's it?" type of comparisons. Hayward can score and he's got some playmaking skills but he hasn't been a primary ballhandler. He was more of a catch and shoot guy at Butler. Until his breakout All Star season last year he was seen as a complimentary scorer. Doncic also has a talent for drawing fouls which is hugely important for him to meet his potential as a #1 option. So if you want to say he's like a bigger Hayward but with a PG mentality, more aggressive attacking the basket, and a much better ability to shoot off the dribble you'd be getting somewhere but at that point why make the comparison at all?

I don't like the Lonzo Ball comparison either because Lonzo has no midrange game to speak of and creating pullups and step backs in the midrange has been a huge part of Luka's offense. He's got some of the same court vision but he likes to have the ball in his hands more. Lonzo is an expert in the long range outlet pass and I haven't seen a lot of that from Doncic (someone correct me if he does that in the games I didn't watch). Somewhere between Ginobili and Harden but with a SF body is kindof where I see him ending up. He's going to toy with defenders like Harden does and while he might not have the same blow-by ability to get all the way into the lane he makes up for it with craftiness and a knack for seeing the floor and finding the easy pass even when it doesn't appear to be there.

The real separation for me though between Luka and the rest of this draft class is his unbelievably advanced feel for the game. I've watched a lot of basketball to this point in my life. There are prospects that wow me every year with their athletic ability but it's pretty rare to watch an 18 year old and think "how did he even see that play was there?" He might not have the longest wingspan or the highest vertical leap or a chiseled muscular body or ideal shooting form but nobody in this draft matches him in flair for the game. Maybe we haven't seen an NBA superstar yet from Europe but the way basketball has exploded internationally in the last 20 years you have to figure its only a matter of time. Giannis is knocking on the door already. And as a son of a Serbian League professional player who's spent his entire life on a basketball court, I think Luka is a strong bet to be the next in what will likely be a long line of star players from that part of the world. Look at how baseball is dominated now by players from Central and South America and more recently from Japan and Korea. Eastern Europe seems to have embraced basketball the way those regions have embraced baseball.

So in that respect "yeah but it hasn't happened before" is a pretty weak counter-argument in my eyes. The world changes. Past events do not necessarily predict future events. We've had an ever increasing number of All Star level players from Euroleague teams already. Once the talent pool is deep enough to produce multiple All Stars, that truly transcendent superstar will be coming eventually. I think winning the MVP award at age 19 is a pretty good sign that we're witnessing something that we haven't seen before. This kid has something exceptional that you can't teach and I will bet on that kind of talent any day of the week.

Let's just hope our coach and rest of players are smart enough to benefit from such high bball iq. Even the best playmaker can't do much if teammates don't set good screens, guys just stand around, or the coach just says dump it to ZBo and hang around.

 

[206Fan]

I don't like the comparison because it fails to account for growth curves. If Gordon Hayward were as good at 19 years old as he was last year at 27 years old, how much better would we expect him to be after 8 years of working on his game? He wasn't playing point forward in college and he had more turnovers than assists in his sophomore season. The reason I bring up Hayward's college production is that we're trying to extrapolate what Doncic's potential is not just how good we expect him to be as a rookie. There's no narrative of Hayward not being a good slasher or shot creator, I'm just saying that he wasn't reliably doing either at a high level until his 4th or 5th year in the league. That's a credit to him that he kept improving every year and it's why he's made himself into an All Star level player but as prospects there's no comparison. Luka might be 80% right now as a 19 year old of the player that Gordon Hayward is in his prime.

As for the free throw issue, you're ignoring minutes played. Bogdan averaged 4 FTA per 36 minutes his last season in the Euroleague as a 24 year old. Luka was 18 most of the year and he averaged 7.2 FTA per 36 minutes and in fact led the entire league in FTA this year. In the championship game last Sunday he struggled with his jumper a bit but got to the line 10 times. That's what I want to see in a scorer -- those are free points if you can get them and he showed all season long that he was better at drawing fouls than any of his peers. I don't think you can directly translate these numbers from one league to the other, it's just an encouraging sign in his favor. The court opens up a bit more in the NBA so there's more room for crafty ballhandlers to get into defenders with a head of steam. There's also a lot of questionable contact called in the favor of the offense lately. You have to play aggressively though to get those kinds of calls. I think Bogdan will end up closer to his Euroleague numbers as he gets more comfortable in the league and starts to attack more and I expect Doncic to be in the top 10% in that category once he settles in too.

It's hard to project Doncic's growth. I know you're hinting a bit towards his ceiling, so I'll take a dip there. You can improve on everything skill-related in basketball. You can improve on your ball handling, shooting, passing, rebounding, etc. However, what you can't improve on is how high you jump, how quick you turn the corners, how fast your feet move, etc. Improved conditioning can only help to an extent. This is where it gets difficult and even controversial to predict Doncic's ceiling. Yes 19yearold Doncic is better than 19yearold Hayward, but in my personal opinion, I think they'll eventually end up at the same peak. As much as people don't want to hear this, ceilings are affected by athletic abilities. From his physical profile+talents+skills, you have to determine how high of a ceiling he has. I was listening to theStephien podcast the other day where they had a former FO guy named Ben Falk on the show. To paraphrase it in a few sentences, he said that it was important to establish a player's floor, middle line, and ceiling. He says that's what FOs do.

I'll go back to a prospect from last year's draft, Jonathan Isaac. 6'10 SF who had problems getting big defenders and often settled for a contested jumpshot. The reason why he struggled to get by defenders was because he just didn't have a quick enough first step to blow by them. Unless he massively worked on escape dribbles to create space, he would always be a step slow. I thought to myself that the only way he could ever become a #1 scorer in the NBA was if he became an elite shooter like KD where he could just rise over on top of guys. Then I realized how unrealistic it was to become as good of a shooter as KD is. At that moment, I realized that he was more of a C than he was a SF.

Now going back to Doncic, the question is how will he counteract his lack of athleticism? This is going to be a hot debate for the next month.

 

[206Fan]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23581610/is-luka-doncic-top-three-2018-nba-draft-pick

Very good read.

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The Kings were initially supposed to have GM Vlade Divac in Belgrade, according to a Sacramento front-office executive at the combine, but Divac never made it, instead electing to attend his son's college graduation in California. People I trust say the Kings' front office has been expressing significant skepticism about Doncic's NBA prospects all year in private conversations, long before they moved up in the draft. At this stage, I think a lot of NBA teams have already made up their minds about Doncic, and it isn't quite as flattering as we initially thought.

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The Kings are also worth monitoring. They were reportedly one of the teams that were highest on Michael Porter Jr. before they moved up from No. 7 to No. 2 in the lottery. Would they look to slide down a few spots to take Porter and pick up another asset in the process? They don't have a draft pick in either round in 2019 at the moment, which has to be a little scary considering how far away they are from contending for a playoff spot.

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MOD NOTE: You CANNOT quote veratim from ESPN INSIDER, which is accessible only by PAID subscription. For this reason, I have deleted most of your post. Sorry, but rules is rules.

 

[206Fan]

A little bit hard to read, but I bolded the main points. Seems like his lack of athleticism is a problem for NBA scouts. He also did have a very bad stretch where he was putting up single digit points and struggled. He actually had 2-3 very bad games a few weeks ago as well. His 3P% has taken a hit this year. His FTA/G isn't as good as it would seem. He benefits from the European style of play where they use up their fouls to slow down games. This results in them being over the foul limit. Some of his FTAs come from ticky tack fouls that aren't in the act of shooting. See his last game as an example.

Giovny doesn't believe in these claims at all. He sees Doncic as the #1 prospect. So he's not out to bash Doncic in any way, he actually defends him a lot in the piece. He's just reiterating what he's been hearing and seeing in the NBA circle.

Doncic isn't a homerun pick. I'm sure some of this might be smokescreen, but a lot can happen between now and draft time.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

As a note, ESPN got the Kings' draft pick status in 2019 wrong (sorry no quote, but I'm on my phone and it would take 20 minutes to cut out the extraneous stuff). Anyway, we actually hold TWO second rounders in 2019, not zero. We hold the least favorable of ours/Milwaukee's, and the second-best of Orlando/Cleveland/Houston.

 

[hrdboild]

This is a lot to respond to but all I'm going to say right now is that I haven't found any of these insider takes or commentary pieces very useful. I've read some of the articles at The Stepien for instance and found the analysis to be overly generalized. I really just like to watch the games and make up my own mind. So if other scouts think Doncic's athleticism will limit his upside that's fine. I don't agree though. In some cases athleticism is very important. I would cite Gerald Wallace as an example. He was never a great shooter, he couldn't really create off the dribble. As a wing these are huge problems right? But he found his niche anyway as an athletic terror willing to jump over other players to get to blocks, dunks, and rebounds. But I also think it's overrated when it comes to evaluating prospects. If you think you're going to teach a 20 year old how to play basketball you've really got your work cut out for you. Players can and do improve on their skills but if there's nothing there to begin with they're just too far behind the curve.

As this relates to Doncic, I really don't understand what other people are seeing. He breaks down defenders and creates good looks all the time. Sure the NBA in general has some of the best athletes in the world but it's not like everyone in the league is a track-star/mega-dunker. There are also a lot of good athletes who just flat out know how to play the game. And this is where I think so many people (myself included) miss on prospects. They're looking for wow factor when they should really be looking for two things: (1) What is this player going to do consistently on the basketball court that contributes to helping a team win and (2) Do they have the tools to excel in those areas? It's not going to be the same for every player. And in that respect I don't understand any of the criticism levied at Doncic. It's like people think he's going to turn into a pumpkin and forget how to do all of the things he's doing already.

We saw this before with Steph Curry. He's too small, too weak, he won't be able to get that shot off in the NBA. He's an undersized shooting guard who'll struggle to lead a team. Did any of that turn out to be true? I hate to bring up examples which make it sound like I'm implying Doncic will succeed because Steph succeeded. I'm just saying that some of the criticism is really reaching in my opinion. Maybe Michael Porter is taller and has a prettier jumpshot but does that really give him a higher ceiling? Sometimes I feel like people make these overly simplistic assertions like "I'd rather have a Kevin Durant than a Gordon Hayward" but Porter is not Durant and Doncic is not Hayward. They may be similar players at a point in time but that's it.

 

[dude12]

I thought I read that Vlade WAS in Belgrade during this time.....not sure the ESPN article is correct.