Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[Capt. Factorial]

Their is a major flaw in that line of thinking.

NCAA is huge. You’re talking about hundreds of teams. Due to the number of university’s.

Let’s take the Top 10 NCAA players, or even better, pit the top 10 NBA players against Top 10 in Europe. Those Euros would get destroyed. It’s not even close. When the Euros finally have a Jordan, Kobe, or Lebron get back to me. I’ll be dead.

 

[Mass]

Their is a major flaw in that line of thinking.

NCAA is huge. You’re talking about hundreds of teams. Due to the number of university’s.

Let’s take the Top 10 NCAA players, or even better, pit the top 10 NBA players against Top 10 in Europe. Those Euros would get destroyed. It’s not even close. When the Euros finally have a Jordan, Kobe, or Lebron get back to me. I’ll be dead.

Yes, NCAA is huge. Hundreds of teams. Europe is small, just a few teams around...

If you pick the 10 best NCAA players and you put them against every Euroleague team, they would get destroyed. Send 10 NCAA players to play against Real Madrid, Fenerbache, CSKA or Olympiacos and see what happens.

Of course if you take the 10 best nba players you would destroy every European team, it’s obvious. I don’t know which point you are trying to prove with that. We are comparing NCAA and Euroleague. Saying the NCAA is a better league than Euroleague is just wrong. There’s no way around it. It’s just not true.

As you said, Europe never had a Lebron or a Kobe. So what? That means every American player is better than any European? In any case, it’s just a matter of time. There will be true superstars coming from outside the US. Giannis might be one. I hope Doncic will be one too if we pick him.

 

[sactowndog]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1000934688557490176

Being dominant at one level does not in any mean you will succeed at the next level. Players can have a weakness at one level no one can exploit that is terminal at the next level.

For an example, I knew a collegiate water polo goalie who was dominate. Probably the best ever collegiate goalie. Partly because he was so intelligent he could compensate for his lack of length by anticipating the shot location. At the next level, international competition, players could use that against him to open up holes.

I’m not saying Doncic will or will not be great at the next level. But posting how he dominated in Europe does not mean positively he will succeed in the NBA.

 

[roasthawg]

Being dominant at one level does not in any mean you will succeed at the next level. Players can have a weakness at one level no one can exploit that is terminal at the next level.

For an example, I knew a collegiate water polo goalie who was dominate. Probably the best ever collegiate goalie. Partly because he was so intelligent he could compensate for his lack of length by anticipating the shot location. At the next level, international competition, players could use that against him to open up holes.

I’m not saying Doncic will or will not be great at the next level. But posting how he dominated in Europe does not mean positively he will succeed in the NBA.

Exactly. His production against inferior competition was outstanding. No debating that. Will he be able to produce at that or an even higher level in the NBA though? I keep bringing up Trae Young. He was Steph Curry in college this year. Better production than all of the guys that are going to go above him. But does he have limitations that will keep him from producing like that in the NBA?

I really want to love Doncic as a dynamic wing would be an amazing add to this team. But his lack of elite or even above average athleticism could be a major issue in the NBA.

 

[sactowndog]

Exactly. His production against inferior competition was outstanding. No debating that. Will he be able to produce at that or an even higher level in the NBA though? I keep bringing up Trae Young. He was Steph Curry in college this year. Better production than all of the guys that are going to go above him. But does he have limitations that will keep him from producing like that in the NBA?

I really want to love Doncic as a dynamic wing would be an amazing add to this team. But his lack of elite or even above average athleticism could be a major issue in the NBA.

I’m not with you devaluing the Euroleague. It’s the second best league in the world hands down. But that doesn’t mean he will have the same success at the next level. Some traits translate and some don’t. That fact is what makes drafting not an exact science.

 

[BigVirg]

Anyone watching the playoffs should be able to clearly see a common theme on the defensive end. Rockets, Celtics, Cavs, and the Warriors all switch EVERYTHING! Defensive versatility is the key to success in todays NBA. That's why IMO Porter or Bagley is the direction this team wants to go. I think Luka will be good but doesn't have superstar potential and will at best be a good team defender.

 

[roasthawg]

I’m not with you devaluing the Euroleague. It’s the second best league in the world hands down. But that doesn’t mean he will have the same success at the next level. Some traits translate and some don’t. That fact is what makes drafting not an exact science.

I'm not devaluing the euro league? All I said is it's inferior vs the NBA.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm not devaluing the euro league? All I said is it's inferior vs the NBA.

Oh sorry was thinking you were saying the NCAA is better than the Euro league. If the NCAA had athletes for 4 years maybe but as shown we are judging 4-5 prospects each with holes. Euro league is a tougher league but I agree it’s not the NBA.

 

[iowamcnabb]

This is such a tough decision and I am glad I won't be making it! After hours and hours of reading and watching vids on these guys I still don't have a good feel for the right pick. Doncic is going to be really good, I have no doubt. If we are swinging for the fences, it might be Bagley. I'll be happy with either pick

 

[Telemachus]

I'm not devaluing the euro league? All I said is it's inferior vs the NBA.

Nobody has claimed otherwise.

 

[sactowndog]

Anyone watching the playoffs should be able to clearly see a common theme on the defensive end. Rockets, Celtics, Cavs, and the Warriors all switch EVERYTHING! Defensive versatility is the key to success in todays NBA. That's why IMO Porter or Bagley is the direction this team wants to go. I think Luka will be good but doesn't have superstar potential and will at best be a good team defender.

I haven’t seen enough to have an opinion nor am I a trained NBA guy but your point is my fear. From people I have talked to it’s a valid fear. But every player has holes in their games. The question is whose games can progress?

This draft is odd in their are lots of outstanding options but no clear number 1. Even Ayton has question marks on defense.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Exactly. His production against inferior competition was outstanding. No debating that. Will he be able to produce at that or an even higher level in the NBA though? I keep bringing up Trae Young. He was Steph Curry in college this year. Better production than all of the guys that are going to go above him. But does he have limitations that will keep him from producing like that in the NBA?

I really want to love Doncic as a dynamic wing would be an amazing add to this team. But his lack of elite or even above average athleticism could be a major issue in the NBA.

I think his overall athleticism is above average actually for a guy his size. He is very fast with the ball in his hands and travels the length of the court extremely well for a guy his size. People are mainly talking about his lack of elite jumping ability, and average lateral quickness. But he is pretty fast for someone that big, and he can definitely get significantly stronger.[/QUOTE]

 

[BigVirg]

One thing you can't teach is physical ability. Even Ayton who I think will be a 20/10 guy seems slow footed and will get exposed when he gets switched on Lebron/Harden/Kd etc.....More and more teams are emphasizing "positionless basketball" and its just my personal opinion Luka will have a tough time guarding the elite wings of the NBA. Hence the reason I think Bagley and Porter are the best players for postseason basketball.

 

[miltonap]

35 ppg doesn't mean much to me tbh, have to take competition into context. My opinion was based off what I saw with my own eyes. Never said he would be a scrub just can't justify taking him over Doncic , Ayton, or JJJ (still need to watch more vids on Bagley, Mikel Bridges, Bamba).

 

[hrdboild]

Anyone watching the playoffs should be able to clearly see a common theme on the defensive end. Rockets, Celtics, Cavs, and the Warriors all switch EVERYTHING! Defensive versatility is the key to success in todays NBA. That's why IMO Porter or Bagley is the direction this team wants to go. I think Luka will be good but doesn't have superstar potential and will at best be a good team defender.

I agree with the first part but this is the exact reason why I don't want us to pick Bagley or Porter. Bagley looked terrible in a zone defense at Duke. He was frequently exploited as the help defender. He's got size and athleticism no doubt and that helps on the boards but defensive rotations require anticipation and court vision and a full understanding of what everyone else on your team is going to do at any moment. Some of that can be taught but I would have hoped he would show progress throughout the season and I didn't see that.

As for Porter I have no idea. He's a complete unknown defensively and I don't agree that size and athleticism are enough to make any player a good defender. Al Horford was the best individual defender in that Boston/Cleveland series. He's not a freak athlete but he is very smart. Draymond Green is Golden State's best defender and he has below average size and athleticism. Just cause a guy looks like he should be able to play defense doesn't mean that he actually does.

I think the biggest takeaway from this year's playoffs (and it's really just an extension of the regular season) is that the more highly skilled guards and wings you have the better. You can get by with one quality bigman and a situational backup but nobody is making it very far without a whole bunch of guys who can shoot, handle, and pass. In that regard we're off to a good start with our guard rotation we just need to supplement with some wing players who can create offense and make intelligent switches defensively.

 

[YoungBlood]

One thing you can't teach is physical ability. Even Ayton who I think will be a 20/10 guy seems slow footed and will get exposed when he gets switched on Lebron/Harden/Kd etc.....More and more teams are emphasizing "positionless basketball" and its just my personal opinion Luka will have a tough time guarding the elite wings of the NBA. Hence the reason I think Bagley and Porter are the best players for postseason basketball.

You act like Bagley and Porter are good defenders.

 

[BigVirg]

I agree with the first part but this is the exact reason why I don't want us to pick Bagley or Porter. Bagley looked terrible in a zone defense at Duke. He was frequently exploited as the help defender. He's got size and athleticism no doubt and that helps on the boards but defensive rotations require anticipation and court vision and a full understanding of what everyone else on your team is going to do at any moment. Some of that can be taught but I would have hoped he would show progress throughout the season and I didn't see that.

As for Porter I have no idea. He's a complete unknown defensively and I don't agree that size and athleticism are enough to make any player a good defender. Al Horford was the best individual defender in that Boston/Cleveland series. He's not a freak athlete but he is very smart. Draymond Green is Golden State's best defender and he has below average size and athleticism. Just cause a guy looks like he should be able to play defense doesn't mean that he actually does.

I think the biggest takeaway from this year's playoffs (and it's really just an extension of the regular season) is that the more highly skilled guards and wings you have the better. You can get by with one quality bigman and a situational backup but nobody is making it very far without a whole bunch of guys who can shoot, handle, and pass. In that regard we're off to a good start with our guard rotation we just need to supplement with some wing players who can create offense and make intelligent switches defensively.

Great point! I agree that Bagley and Porter haven't shown the defensive aptitude yet but have the physical tools to be taught. I'll admit at this point I'm probably a bit biased and just see them as the swing for the fences with superstar potential. I can't really argue with your assessment though. Spot on!

 

[iowamcnabb]

I'll ask again, do we have an NBA example of a full sized wing with Plus handles, elite court vision, High BBIQ who has questionable athleticism? Paul Pierce?

Washington Wizards forward Paul Pierce doesn’t think he would get a good look if he was coming into the NBA these days.

In an interview on The Dan Patrick Show, Pierce joked that he “probably wouldn’t have got drafted” if he entered the NBA with this generation.
He says:
I probably wouldn’t have got drafted. A lot of stuff is based on potential, so I probably would have gone later in the first round or something.
Pierce was drafted 10th overall in the 1998 draft, partially because NBA teams questioned his athleticism. This was a silly thing to do, and Pierce is right to wonder why NBA teams keep valuing potential and athleticism over NBA-ready skill.

Pierce also said: “I think a lot of these young, talented kids are just rated on their pure, like, length and athleticism. But really no basketball IQ, no footwork, really can’t shoot the ball.”

 

[YoungBlood]

I definitely want Doncic at #2. I am worried that one of Bagely, MPJ, JAckson, or Bamba will become a superstar and we will regret not taking them. In fact that is my prediction since all of them seem to have a lot of potential. But the Kings have not had a great history in the draft and Doncic seems like he will at least be a good player in the NBA.

The last thing the Kings need right now is a bust at number two. Doncic is the safe pick the kings absolutely need to make. Especially considering we have no pick next year.

 

[netseee]

Any news about Luka Doncic will join NBA draft or not?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Any news about Luka Doncic will join NBA draft or not?

There are two potential (non-injury) reasons why Doncic might not be in the NBA in the 2018-2019 season:

1) Doncic has until June 11th to pull his name out of the draft. However, there do not appear to be any indications that he might do this, and I'm not even sure that there are any doom-and-gloomers who suggest he might do this. This almost certainly will not happen.

2) Because he has a good gig in Real Madrid, Doncic could potentially attempt to influence which NBA team he goes to in the draft by threatening to refuse to come the the NBA if the "wrong" team drafts him. However, outside of the speculation of some doom-and-gloomers, there do not appear to be any indications that he might do this. None of this doom-and-gloom speculation appears to be well-sourced, and to the extent that it suggests Doncic would not want to come to the Kings is likely reflective of a facile anti-Kings media narrative and not on anything Doncic has said. Everything that Doncic has said publicly suggests that he is not interested in avoiding any particular NBA teams.

So I would be quite surprised if Doncic refused to come to the NBA next season. That said, if, public statements to the contrary, Doncic had decided he did not want to sign with the Kings, he or his agent would certainly tell Vlade this. The entire point of holding out like that is to influence the decision of the team you are holding out on - you HAVE to tell them or it doesn't work. In the case (unlikely in my opinion) that Doncic tells Vlade no way is he coming to Sacramento...fine. Be that way. We can just draft Bagley. But don't worry, there's basically zero chance we get caught off guard on this.

 

[sactowndog]

I'll ask again, do we have an NBA example of a full sized wing with Plus handles, elite court vision, High BBIQ who has questionable athleticism? Paul Pierce?

Washington Wizards forward Paul Pierce doesn’t think he would get a good look if he was coming into the NBA these days.

In an interview on The Dan Patrick Show, Pierce joked that he “probably wouldn’t have got drafted” if he entered the NBA with this generation.
He says:
I probably wouldn’t have got drafted. A lot of stuff is based on potential, so I probably would have gone later in the first round or something.
Pierce was drafted 10th overall in the 1998 draft, partially because NBA teams questioned his athleticism. This was a silly thing to do, and Pierce is right to wonder why NBA teams keep valuing potential and athleticism over NBA-ready skill.

Pierce also said: “I think a lot of these young, talented kids are just rated on their pure, like, length and athleticism. But really no basketball IQ, no footwork, really can’t shoot the ball.”

Doncic is not the shooter Pierce is/was. If he was that would be a different story as he would be best off the ball.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Doncic is not the shooter Pierce is/was. If he was that would be a different story as he would be best off the ball.

Their games are totally different but they are both full sized sf with excellent skills, high IQ and questionable athleticism. The knock on Luka is his athleticism will prevent him from being a good defender and a go to scorer. I personally cannot think of any players with his blend of size, skill and iq that failed or plateaued as a solid starter due to being average athletically.

 

[funkykingston]

I definitely want Doncic at #2. I am worried that one of Bagely, MPJ, JAckson, or Bamba will become a superstar and we will regret not taking them. In fact that is my prediction since all of them seem to have a lot of potential. But the Kings have not had a great history in the draft and Doncic seems like he will at least be a good player in the NBA.

The last thing the Kings need right now is a bust at number two. Doncic is the safe pick the kings absolutely need to make. Especially considering we have no pick next year.

Part of my thinking around the draft is looking at each guys potential to make the Kings regret passing on him. This is a different mindset than imagining Bagley's rebounding shoring up that issue for the Kings or Ayton providing interior scoring or Doncic adding to the passing/playmaking of Bogdanovic, Fox & Cauley-Stein (and potentially Giles) this is thinking about how that player might torment the Kings.

I can envision Ayton scoring over WCS on the post and then when Koufos has to be brought in, stepping out and splashing jumpers on the way to a 20/10 night. I can picture Bagley killing the Kings on the boards and getting the Kings bigs in foul trouble with his activity. I can even squint and see Porter having a big scoring night or Bamba patrolling the paint and forcing the Kings to settle for jumpers rather than attack the basket.

But what scares me with Doncic and Jackson is that I struggle to envision them coming to town in a different jersey and thinking after the game, "that guy really killed us tonight."

Is Doncic a threat to hang 30 points on an NBA team? Or carve up a defense with his passing? I don't know.

I can see Jackson hitting some wide open jumpers, getting a few dive baskets and blocking a couple shots while grabbing 6-8 rebounds. Just like with Doncic, I can see him having a good game and being part of why a team beats the Kings but not necessarily saying, "man we just couldn't deal with that kid tonight."

Am I wrong?

 

[funkykingston]

Doncic is not the shooter Pierce is/was. If he was that would be a different story as he would be best off the ball.

Paul Pierce's freshman year (when he was Luka's age this season) he shot 30% from 3.

Doncic may or may not improve at a similar rate but he was definitely as good a shooter as Pierce was at the same age. And if you throw in Luka's usage rate, amount of off the dribble shots and discount his high number of end of quarter heaves there's a strong argument that he's a better shooter at the same age.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Paul Pierce's freshman year (when he was Luka's age this season) he shot 30% from 3.

Doncic may or may not improve at a similar rate but he was definitely as good a shooter as Pierce was at the same age. And if you throw in Luka's usage rate, amount of off the dribble shots and discount his high number of end of quarter heaves there's a strong argument that he's a better shooter at the same age.

There is zero doubt about that in my mind. This idea that Doncic is a below average shooter is just not true. I'm pretty certain he will be a 40% 3 point shooter in the NBA, he has that type of touch.

 

[ParniValjak]

Their is a major flaw in that line of thinking.

NCAA is huge. You’re talking about hundreds of teams. Due to the number of university’s.

Let’s take the Top 10 NCAA players, or even better, pit the top 10 NBA players against Top 10 in Europe. Those Euros would get destroyed. It’s not even close. When the Euros finally have a Jordan, Kobe, or Lebron get back to me. I’ll be dead.

With all due respect there is so much stupidity in this post.....I am absolutely dumb founded.

No one here is comparing the NBA to Europe. We are comparing the NCAA level to Euroleague in terms of quality of the competition. Let me put it this way, whatever you think those top 10 NBA players would do to top 10 of "Those Euros" is exactly what top 10 players from Euroleague would do to top 10 players from the NCAA.

Euroleague is a collection of all the top teams in Europe, that is selection of the strongest teams. I am certainly not sold on Doncic at pick 2 but he would run rings around the NCAA teams if he played in college as opposed to Euroleague. Would absolutely toy with them on a nightly basis.

 

[YoungBlood]

Part of my thinking around the draft is looking at each guys potential to make the Kings regret passing on him. This is a different mindset than imagining Bagley's rebounding shoring up that issue for the Kings or Ayton providing interior scoring or Doncic adding to the passing/playmaking of Bogdanovic, Fox & Cauley-Stein (and potentially Giles) this is thinking about how that player might torment the Kings.

I can envision Ayton scoring over WCS on the post and then when Koufos has to be brought in, stepping out and splashing jumpers on the way to a 20/10 night. I can picture Bagley killing the Kings on the boards and getting the Kings bigs in foul trouble with his activity. I can even squint and see Porter having a big scoring night or Bamba patrolling the paint and forcing the Kings to settle for jumpers rather than attack the basket.

But what scares me with Doncic and Jackson is that I struggle to envision them coming to town in a different jersey and thinking after the game, "that guy really killed us tonight."

Is Doncic a threat to hang 30 points on an NBA team? Or carve up a defense with his passing? I don't know.

I can see Jackson hitting some wide open jumpers, getting a few dive baskets and blocking a couple shots while grabbing 6-8 rebounds. Just like with Doncic, I can see him having a good game and being part of why a team beats the Kings but not necessarily saying, "man we just couldn't deal with that kid tonight."

Am I wrong?

Well part of the reason you feel this way could be that there are few players you can compare to Doncic. I've certainly never seen a 6' 8 European small forward with Doncic's skill set and shooting ability. It's hard to say how exactly his game will translate to the NBA, but I think it's safe to say he will be at least decent.

 

[ParniValjak]

Doncic is not the shooter Pierce is/was. If he was that would be a different story as he would be best off the ball.

Paul Pierce at the start of his career and the one the finish was a completely different shooters (i.e. the later version was MUCH better). However, one thing Pierce could do from the start is score. A pure scorer.

 

[sactowndog]

There is zero doubt about that in my mind. This idea that Doncic is a below average shooter is just not true. I'm pretty certain he will be a 40% 3 point shooter in the NBA, he has that type of touch.

I’m not saying below average. Pierce was elite... not sure Luca will be elite.