Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[ParniValjak]

Their games are totally different but they are both full sized sf with excellent skills, high IQ and questionable athleticism. The knock on Luka is his athleticism will prevent him from being a good defender and a go to scorer. I personally cannot think of any players with his blend of size, skill and iq that failed or plateaued as a solid starter due to being average athletically.

I am 100% certain that Luka will NOT fail in the NBA. At worst he is a good starter on any team in the NBA. At best he is an all time European great rivaling Dirk.

As advanced as Luka's skill level is, I think you can still improve in a lot of areas. His handle could become tighter, shot could be fine tuned and that shot release could be quicker. Footwork is very good but could be sped up a bit more. He could be better shooting coming off screens and He is far from a finished product. His skills have another level or two to get to.

My main concerns are that first step, lateral quickness and body flexibility. Can that be improved enough to be adequate at the next level that will allow him to be a perennial all-star? Even in Europe he is not great at losing his man off the screen, making that hard, quick cut. When the big switches on him in pick and roll, he rarely goes past them and settles for a shot off the dribble. The flexibility part is interesting to me. He seems to be pretty stiff in the upper body, there is no contouring of the body on those drives like say Manu who he gets compared to in some circles.

Bottom line is Luka will not fail. He will not be a bust. He won't be Darko. He will be a very good starter in the NBA but the big question for me is how great can he be. Is he a Hedo Turkoglu or Toni Kukoc at his best, or is he a perennial all-star who is a nightly triple double threat who is also a good defender (not elite but good).

If Doncic had say MPJ's athleticism, he would be a sure #1 pick and while MPJ is a very good athlete, he is far from an athletic freak!

 

[iowamcnabb]

If Doncic had say MPJ's athleticism, he would be a sure #1 pick and while MPJ is a very good athlete, he is far from an athletic freak!

If this statement is true I believe Luka should be the pick. We have good reason to believe his rebounding rate will translate (college to pros often do anyway) his assists rate should be well above average, he gets to the line (every star does) and he has too good of a shot form not to be a very good shooter. I think this at least results in 17 7 7 (his floor). He appears to have a strong drive and work ethic, seems to be a student of the game and would be marketable (This may not seem important on the court but I believe having a marketable player would bring more attention to the Kings and potentially spur interest in players joining them in free agency) That is an incredibly nice floor. If he can fine tune his body, become an elite 3 point shooter ( I believe he can) and be apart of a team with great ball movement (Doncic, Giles, Fox, Bogs and even Hield of Dreams makes for a nice passing squad) he could be a star.

 

[Kingster]

Milos was injured all year and mostly reduced to a reserve role.

So they played him injured? I don't buy it. If the guy played I'm assuming he didn't play hobbling. When he played against the Kings, I didn't see him limping or anything. Maybe he was reduced to a reserve role because he wasn't all that good. So then how do his euro stats translate to the NBA?

 

[Kingster]

Rubio assists doubled, because he was primary ball handler in the NBA and not because he doubled his production. It was more or less the same, just the method of counting assists is more faborable in NBA. Teodosic played a lot off the ball. In addition to that he is aging, getting injured and slowing down. IMO he joined NBA too late.

Isn't Doncic the primary ball handler on his euro team? Will he be the primary ball handler on the Kings team? If he was the primary ball handler on the euro team and he becomes a secondary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down on a per minute basis? Or if he is the primary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down relative to the euro league? These are the questions I have. And I have the same questions when it comes to fg% and points scored.

 

[funkykingston]

So they played him injured? I don't buy it. If the guy played I'm assuming he didn't play hobbling. When he played against the Kings, I didn't see him limping or anything. Maybe he was reduced to a reserve role because he wasn't all that good. So then how do his euro stats translate to the NBA?

I don't know that he played injured. But he did miss a lot of games. And for a guy adapting to the NBA to miss a lot of times with injury and also have a lot of roster change and injuries to other players almost certainly made it hard for him to develop a rhythm and timing. For me at least, I'm giving him a bit of a Mulligan on this season.

Teodosic can't guard a chair so if he's not orchestrating the offense at a reasonably high level then he adds very little. So next season (if he's healthier) we'll see whether it was a rough adjustment period or if he's just not as well suited for the NBA game.

 

[Joshoua]

I don’t think people know who porter is man that dude is terrible defensively

You act like Bagley and Porter are good defenders.

Isn't Doncic the primary ball handler on his euro team? Will he be the primary ball handler on the Kings team? If he was the primary ball handler on the euro team and he becomes a secondary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down on a per minute basis? Or if he is the primary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down relative to the euro league? These are the questions I have. And I have the same questions when it comes to fg% and points scored.

Doesn’t matter what his assists numbers are and it doesn’t matter if he’s the main ball handler. You need multiple ball handlers to be successful he’ll if he doesn’t fit with Fox you trade Fox you take Doncic every time. And he played with Dragic where he played off ball and he looked good.

 

[roasthawg]

I am 100% certain that Luka will NOT fail in the NBA. At worst he is a good starter on any team in the NBA. At best he is an all time European great rivaling Dirk.

As advanced as Luka's skill level is, I think you can still improve in a lot of areas. His handle could become tighter, shot could be fine tuned and that shot release could be quicker. Footwork is very good but could be sped up a bit more. He could be better shooting coming off screens and He is far from a finished product. His skills have another level or two to get to.

My main concerns are that first step, lateral quickness and body flexibility. Can that be improved enough to be adequate at the next level that will allow him to be a perennial all-star? Even in Europe he is not great at losing his man off the screen, making that hard, quick cut. When the big switches on him in pick and roll, he rarely goes past them and settles for a shot off the dribble. The flexibility part is interesting to me. He seems to be pretty stiff in the upper body, there is no contouring of the body on those drives like say Manu who he gets compared to in some circles.

Bottom line is Luka will not fail. He will not be a bust. He won't be Darko. He will be a very good starter in the NBA but the big question for me is how great can he be. Is he a Hedo Turkoglu or Toni Kukoc at his best, or is he a perennial all-star who is a nightly triple double threat who is also a good defender (not elite but good).

If Doncic had say MPJ's athleticism, he would be a sure #1 pick and while MPJ is a very good athlete, he is far from an athletic freak!

This is a really good post, this is it exactly. I really wanna love Doncic but damn that lack of elite athleticism makes it hard to envision the best case scenario. Who is he best case? That's what I can't come up with.

 

[dude12]

This is a really good post, this is it exactly. I really wanna love Doncic but damn that lack of elite athleticism makes it hard to envision the best case scenario. Who is he best case? That's what I can't come up with.

Paul Pierce?

 

[BigVirg]

Trade Fox? Really? Luka being a primary band handler is a big reason I'm not too fond of him even though I definitely think he's a safe pick. If you believe in Fox, Bogie, and Buddy then using your pick on another ball dominant player is a poor choice of building a cohesive roster.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Let's break this star thing down a bit since we all are expecting a multi year all star out of the #2 pick.

First Tier
Lebron
KD
Harden
Curry
Westbrook
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Giannis
Kyrie

Second Tier
Klay
Chris Paul (due to age)
Lillard
Cousins
Jimmy Butler
John Wall
Joel Embiid (for now)
Kristaps Porzingis

Third Tier
Ben Simmons (for now)
Mitchell (for now)
Tatum (for now)
Kemba
Derozan
Lowry
Blake Griffin
Lamarcus Aldridge
Oladipo
Horford
Beal
Towns
Gordan Hayward

This isn't a complete list but you get the idea. I personally don't see any of this years draft class breaking into that first tier. 5 of the 9 top tier players have won a championship (4 of them on 2 teams) 1 player from the second tier and 0 from the third tier. One thing to remember when considering a player's potential is mental make up. All those top tier guys are super smart players. Doncic might have the highest BBIQ of this class and he is a proven winner at the second highest level of professional ball. Great stats/production are not enough to win.

 

[Kingster]

I don't know that he played injured. But he did miss a lot of games. And for a guy adapting to the NBA to miss a lot of times with injury and also have a lot of roster change and injuries to other players almost certainly made it hard for him to develop a rhythm and timing. For me at least, I'm giving him a bit of a Mulligan on this season.

Teodosic can't guard a chair so if he's not orchestrating the offense at a reasonably high level then he adds very little. So next season (if he's healthier) we'll see whether it was a rough adjustment period or if he's just not as well suited for the NBA game.

Holy Moly! I misread Doncic's stats on the web! He averaged 4.3 assists during the regular season in 26 min/game of play. In the playoffs he average 3 assists per game in an average of 26 minutes of play! In the final four he averaged 3 assists in 29.5 minutes/game average!

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2017#!E2017_FF

Is the above site for real or not?

To your point, Funky, Teodosic's defense is irrelevant for purposes of this discussion. We're using Teodosic an "assist comp" for Doncic. Specifically, we're talking about assists here and how the euro assist stats translate into the NBA and how 4.3 assists per game by Doncic makes us believe that he's going to be a great assist maker in the NBA. Certainly, the Kings would not take him for his defense or his shot making, so let's focus on what is supposed to be his greatest asset - assists.

Teodosic played about the same minutes per game as Doncic, which makes him a good comp for the NBA. (Maybe you're right and they played him less minutes because of his D, but they played him in the mid 20s minutes per game nonetheless, which is what Doncic played). Teodosic was in the high 6's for assists in the euro league; his assists plummeted to the 4s in the NBA, not exactly a sterling recommendation for drafting Doncic at 4.3 assists in regular season and 3 in the playoffs. So Teodosic had his troubles in the NBA in his first year, maybe because of injuries that caused sporadic play. Without those troubles do you think he gets to the 6's next year in the NBA? Should we believe he goes much higher? If so, why? And if he does, what do we infer from that about Doncic? Is Doncic going to be in the 6's? Why should believe that he could go much higher than that? I'm really searching hard for why exactly a guy with 5 assists per game is going to be the next John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, Marc Jackson, etc. Was his usage rate incredibly low, thereby leading one to believe that with an ordinary NBA usage rate he'd skyrocket to well above 8 assists a game? Did he have terrible finishers? It's already been stated that they are more conservative in the euro league in determining what an assist is, but again, Teodosic was in the high 6's and now he's in the 4s; one would think his assists would have been much higher than in the 4s, even with the sporadic play. We're back to the beginning again.

 

[Padrino]

Holy Moly! I misread Doncic's stats on the web! He averaged 4.3 assists during the regular season in 26 min/game of play. In the playoffs he average 3 assists per game in an average of 26 minutes of play! In the final four he averaged 3 assists in 29.5 minutes/game average!

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2017#!E2017_FF

Is the above site for real or not?

To your point, Funky, Teodosic's defense is irrelevant for purposes of this discussion. We're using Teodosic an "assist comp" for Doncic. Specifically, we're talking about assists here and how the euro assist stats translate into the NBA and how 4.3 assists per game by Doncic makes us believe that he's going to be a great assist maker in the NBA. Certainly, the Kings would not take him for his defense or his shot making, so let's focus on what is supposed to be his greatest asset - assists.

Teodosic played about the same minutes per game as Doncic, which makes him a good comp for the NBA. (Maybe you're right and they played him less minutes because of his D, but they played him in the mid 20s minutes per game nonetheless, which is what Doncic played). Teodosic was in the high 6's for assists in the euro league; his assists plummeted to the 4s in the NBA, not exactly a sterling recommendation for drafting Doncic at 4.3 assists in regular season and 3 in the playoffs. So Teodosic had his troubles in the NBA in his first year, maybe because of injuries that caused sporadic play. Without those troubles do you think he gets to the 6's next year in the NBA? Should we believe he goes much higher? If so, why? And if he does, what do we infer from that about Doncic? Is Doncic going to be in the 6's? Why should believe that he could go much higher than that? I'm really searching hard for why exactly a guy with 5 assists per game is going to be the next John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, Marc Jackson, etc. Was his usage rate incredibly low, thereby leading one to believe that with an ordinary NBA usage rate he'd skyrocket to well above 8 assists a game? Did he have terrible finishers? It's already been stated that they are more conservative in the euro league in determining what an assist is, but again, Teodosic was in the high 6's and now he's in the 4s; one would think his assists would have been much higher than in the 4s, even with the sporadic play. We're back to the beginning again.

Your intense focus on raw assist numbers is strange in the context of how basketball is played in the modern NBA. Teams like multiple ball handlers and willing passers. It’s rare to see lots of players averaging 8+ assists per game anymore, and rarer still to see guys averaging 10+. The responsibility is shared now more than ever before in the NBA.

Beyond that, successful ball movement is as much about the pass-before-the-assist as the assist itself. Based on the tape I’ve seen, I have no concern about Luka Doncic’s ability to facilitate effective ball movement as either a primary or secondary ball handler. The kid has excellent court vision, and he’s skilled at finding lanes that don’t often occur to players at his age. Who cares what his assist numbers are in the NBA if he’s helping his team find good shots?

 

[funkykingston]

I’m not saying below average. Pierce was elite... not sure Luca will be elite.

Pierce could maybe be called an elite scorer, but he was under 37% from three for his career.

Pierce is an interesting comp for Doncic in some ways but I don't see Luka being as aggressive a scorer and Pierce didn't have Doncic's court vision/playmaking.

 

[hrdboild]

Let's break this star thing down a bit since we all are expecting a multi year all star out of the #2 pick.

First Tier
Lebron
KD
Harden
Curry
Westbrook
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Giannis
Kyrie

Second Tier
Klay
Chris Paul (due to age)
Lillard
Cousins
Jimmy Buttler
John Wall
Joel Embiid (for now)
Kristaps Porzingis

Third Tier
Ben Simmons (for now)
Mitchell (for now)
Tatum (for now)
Kemba
Derozan
Lowry
Blake Griffin
Lamarcus Aldridge
Oladipo
Horford
Beal
Towns
Gordan Hayward

This isn't a complete list but you get the idea. I personally don't see any of this years draft class breaking into that first tier. 5 of the 9 top tier players have won a championship (4 of them on 2 teams) 1 player from the second tier and 0 from the third tier. One thing to remember when considering a player's potential is mental make up. All those top tier guys are super smart players. Doncic might be the highest BBIQ of this class and he is a proven winner at the second highest level of professional ball. Great stats/production are not enough to win.

There's no way Jayson Tatum is already in tier 3. I wouldn't put Kyrie in tier 1 either based on the other names you've got there. He's not a league MVP. But anyway, regarding this draft I think DeAndre Ayton clearly has tier 1 potential. He's right up there with Anthony Davis if he can turn up his defensive intensity because we already know he can score from anywhere, he's a physical mismatch against everyone, and he did show that he can play very good defense in bursts when he really locked in. He is almost the Platonic ideal of a modern NBA center. There might not be a better one coming into the league for 10 years or more.

Luka Doncic is hard to project because there really aren't a lot of players that fit his profile. His potential is as a true leading playmaker at the SG/SF position. The only guys currently in the league who fit that profile are Lebron, Ben Simmons, Giannis, and James Harden. Giannis and Ben Simmons are super athletes but neither one has a reliable outside shot yet. Lebron is obviously in his own tier. Harden has been my comparison for Doncic all year. He doesn't look very fast but he's got sneaky speed when he needs it and he's just got a knack for getting defenders off balance, finding open space, and seeing who's about to be open even before they're actually open. If you go back to the time they were drafted, nobody would have put Kawhi, Russ, or Steph in that top tier. Some pegged Giannis as a potential superstar but he was also seen as a huge risk. Harden would have been projected as tier 2 potential, he really only elevated himself to tier 1 when Coach D'Antoni made him the starting PG.

What really separates the MVP level players from the rest I think is the ability to take over a game. Those tier 2 guys can do it every now and then but they need help. A true MVP is a guy who you can surround with average talent and they will make those players look better. That might be because they can get you a bucket more often than not when you need one. That might be because they are outstanding playmakers. It might be because they're elite defensively. Mostly it's because you can't watch a game they're in without noticing them because they're everywhere doing whatever it takes to win. Some of this depends on what you think of the level of competition in NCAA and the Euroleague I suppose but Ayton and Doncic were absolutely those guys for their teams in the past year. No projection is needed -- they just need to be able to translate what they're already doing to the NBA. I'm not going to guarantee that either of them makes it to tier 1 but they certainly have that kind of potential. And I would be very surprised if they're not at least tier 2 by the end of their rookie contracts.

 

[burekijogurt]

Holy Moly! I misread Doncic's stats on the web! He averaged 4.3 assists during the regular season in 26 min/game of play. In the playoffs he average 3 assists per game in an average of 26 minutes of play! In the final four he averaged 3 assists in 29.5 minutes/game average!

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=005929&seasoncode=E2017#!E2017_FF

Is the above site for real or not?

To your point, Funky, Teodosic's defense is irrelevant for purposes of this discussion. We're using Teodosic an "assist comp" for Doncic. Specifically, we're talking about assists here and how the euro assist stats translate into the NBA and how 4.3 assists per game by Doncic makes us believe that he's going to be a great assist maker in the NBA. Certainly, the Kings would not take him for his defense or his shot making, so let's focus on what is supposed to be his greatest asset - assists.

Teodosic played about the same minutes per game as Doncic, which makes him a good comp for the NBA. (Maybe you're right and they played him less minutes because of his D, but they played him in the mid 20s minutes per game nonetheless, which is what Doncic played). Teodosic was in the high 6's for assists in the euro league; his assists plummeted to the 4s in the NBA, not exactly a sterling recommendation for drafting Doncic at 4.3 assists in regular season and 3 in the playoffs. So Teodosic had his troubles in the NBA in his first year, maybe because of injuries that caused sporadic play. Without those troubles do you think he gets to the 6's next year in the NBA? Should we believe he goes much higher? If so, why? And if he does, what do we infer from that about Doncic? Is Doncic going to be in the 6's? Why should believe that he could go much higher than that? I'm really searching hard for why exactly a guy with 5 assists per game is going to be the next John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, Marc Jackson, etc. Was his usage rate incredibly low, thereby leading one to believe that with an ordinary NBA usage rate he'd skyrocket to well above 8 assists a game? Did he have terrible finishers? It's already been stated that they are more conservative in the euro league in determining what an assist is, but again, Teodosic was in the high 6's and now he's in the 4s; one would think his assists would have been much higher than in the 4s, even with the sporadic play. We're back to the beginning again.

I watched a lot of Clippers games this season. between his own plantar fasciitis, injuries to almost the entire starting lineup, iso ball and lack of real purposeful movement in their offense, playing in lineups with ball dominant scoring guards such as austin rivers and lou williams, the normal adjustment to the NBA, the age at which he is making this adjustement, etc... his assists numbers suffered. i do not think Teo's assist numbers are a good example as to how assist numbers translate from euroleague to nba...

 

[iowamcnabb]

There's no way Jayson Tatum is already in tier 3. I wouldn't put Kyrie in tier 1 either based on the other names you've got there. He's not a league MVP.

Tatum isn't there yet but I project he will be by the end of his second year. Kyrie has to be close to that top tier considering he is a 5 time all star and an NBA champion.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Sloan's conference "Forcasting performance of International players in the NBA"
This is pretty wordy, but maybe a few of the statisticians on the forum could break this down in layman's terms

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...mance-of-International-Players-in-the-NBA.pdf

 

[ParniValjak]

I watched a lot of Clippers games this season. between his own plantar fasciitis, injuries to almost the entire starting lineup, iso ball and lack of real purposeful movement in their offense, playing in lineups with ball dominant scoring guards such as austin rivers and lou williams, the normal adjustment to the NBA, the age at which he is making this adjustement, etc... his assists numbers suffered. i do not think Teo's assist numbers are a good example as to how assist numbers translate from euroleague to nba...

People that have not watched Luka play other than the two games in the final 4 (if that) and watched some youtube highlight will try and use stats to come up with what they think is a valid point.

People keep calling him a primary ball handler, a PG and what else. Fact is Luka is not really a true PG in the same manner that Dejan Bodiroga was not a true PG. We are talking about a multi dimensional player who at least offensively can do a bit of everything. I would argue that Luka is at his best when he is played with a true PG like Sergio Llull or Goran Dragic. He still executes the creative passes and gets his team mates easy looks but it also allows him to be more aggressive as a scorer and rebounder.

IMHO, I think Doncic's best position is a SF who can also initiate the offense. His shot is better than his percentages indicate. In fact he is a better shooter than Bogdan was at the same age. He is a better ball handler, passer and creator than Bogdan was at the same age. I see people as claiming that Luka's major selling point are his assists and all that says to me is that these people have not seen him play semi regularly over the last couple of season. All I can say is WOW!

More spacing will make life easier for Luka in the NBA. Three point line is further out, the key dimensions are different.....there is just more room to operate and be more creative. Wherever he ends up, I want to see Luka be more aggressive as a scorer and I hope he is playing on a team that has a good PG. He would be at his best then. Luka will be one of the most productive rookies and possibly take home ROY. I would be more interested to see what his 2nd year in the league will be like more than his rookie season. Simply because I think he will finally have a summer where he can work on his body, athleticism and skill with NBA team that will no doubt put a great deal of resources in place to make him as best as he can be, certainly athletically.

 

[Joshoua]

Your intense focus on raw assist numbers is strange in the context of how basketball is played in the modern NBA. Teams like multiple ball handlers and willing passers. It’s rare to see lots of players averaging 8+ assists per game anymore, and rarer still to see guys averaging 10+. The responsibility is shared now more than ever before in the NBA.

Beyond that, successful ball movement is as much about the pass-before-the-assist as the assist itself. Based on the tape I’ve seen, I have no concern about Luka Doncic’s ability to facilitate effective ball movement as either a primary or secondary ball handler. The kid has excellent court vision, and he’s skilled at finding lanes that don’t often occur to players at his age. Who cares what his assist numbers are in the NBA if he’s helping his team find good shots?

It’s even funnier when you realize 3 assists in euro is like 7 in the nba

 

[hrdboild]

Here's some video evidence...

DeAndre Ayton first:

This dude is going to be a monster in the NBA. And he's from the Bahamas which means he and Buddy are going to be national team teammates for the next 10-15 years together if they want to be. I think that would be a great way for us to establish an identity. All we would need to do at that point is find a starting SF to compliment the group we currently have. Plus, how amazing would it be if we move on from Cousins and find another franchise big man a year later? When you combine the physical presence with the perimeter skills he's almost two players out there. He's your C and your PF. We wouldn't have to worry about our frontcourt for the forseeable future. Just plug in warm bodies next to him and let him do the rest. He's such a dream fit for us that we should be crying if Phoenix drafts him. Except, there's also this guy:

Luke Doncic:

I see some Jason Williams in there with the fast break pullup three and the wrap around no-look passes. I see some Paul Pierce with the turnaround mid-range jumper. I see some James Harden with the crossover and step back three and the perfectly lofted entry passes. I see some Manu in the funky euro-stepping drives and off-balance layups. Look at how he can stop on a dime and pull up from anywhere in the halfcourt. Nobody in college has this level of veteran savvy -- it's obvious he's been playing in a professional league for multiple years. Can you imagine how much fun it would be to play with a guy who can break down a defense and find open players with pinpoint accurate passes like that?

We'd have a little more work to do. None of our young bigs are physically dominant or exceptionally skilled yet. We have to figure out where Harry Giles is going to play. We'd probably need to add a combo forward who's an elite defender because some combination of Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, and Doncic on the perimeter looks good but not great defensively. But man oh man, we'd be well on our way to being the best passing team in the league with three guys who can create off the bounce like that. Can you imagine the out of bounds plays Dave Joerger will be able to draw up with Buddy and Bogie spotted up and Fox or Doncic handling the ball? That's two players who are virtually unguardable one-on-one and two of the best shooters in the league. It'll be a nightmare to defend these guys. It'll be open three pointers and layups/dunks all game long. We should be crying tears of joy if Luka Doncic's name gets called by the Kings on draft night. Get ready for the return of the Greatest Show on Court.

Is one of them better than the other? Who the heck cares? We were supposed to pick 7th in this draft. We'll take whichever of them is left and go home happy! Everyone else in this draft needs to work on something or fix something or get better at something to become an elite player. Luka and DeAndre are already elite and they're going to keep getting better. That's why there's a clear divide in my mind between the top 2 and everyone else. Sure someone else will probably force their way into that conversation but we don't need to bet on potential with these two. We just need to help them to stay focused off the court, keep them healthy, and allow them the chance to do what they were born to do.

I'm going to try to bow out of the conversation at this point. I feel like I've said all I need to say about it. If you're not feeling great about the position we're in draft-wise right now, watch some more videos and see if you don't get hyped up too. These are two special special players and either one of them would probably be the best player drafted by Sacramento which is actually saying something at this point. I was at DeMarcus' best game as a King. I still love the big fella and he'll always be a King in my heart. So this is no disrespect to him but I think these guys will be even better.

 

[BigVirg]

Pierce could maybe be called an elite scorer, but he was under 37% from three for his career.

Pierce is an interesting comp for Doncic in some ways but I don't see Luka being as aggressive a scorer and Pierce didn't have Doncic's court vision/playmaking.

The most elite aspect of Paul was with mental makeup. Alfa dog with a killer mentality. Not a lot of guys have that.

 

[roasthawg]

Here's some video evidence...

DeAndre Ayton first:

This dude is going to be a monster in the NBA. And he's from the Bahamas which means he and Buddy are going to be national team teammates for the next 10-15 years together if they want to be. I think that would be a great way for us to establish an identity. All we would need to do at that point is find a starting SF to compliment the group we currently have. Plus, how amazing would it be if we move on from Cousins and find another franchise big man a year later? When you combine the physical presence with the perimeter skills he's almost two players out there. He's your C and your PF. We wouldn't have to worry about our frontcourt for the forseeable future. Just plug in warm bodies next to him and let him do the rest. He's such a dream fit for us that we should be crying if Phoenix drafts him. Except, there's also this guy:

Luke Doncic:

I see some Jason Williams in there with the fast break pullup three and the wrap around no-look passes. I see some Paul Pierce with the turnaround mid-range jumper. I see some James Harden with the crossover and step back three and the perfectly lofted entry passes. I see some Manu in the funky euro-stepping drives and off-balance layups. Look at how he can stop on a dime and pull up from anywhere in the halfcourt. Nobody in college has this level of veteran savvy -- it's obvious he's been playing in a professional league for multiple years. Can you imagine how much fun it would be to play with a guy who can break down a defense and find open players with pinpoint accurate passes like that?

We'd have a little more work to do. None of our young bigs are physically dominant or exceptionally skilled yet. We have to figure out where Harry Giles is going to play. We'd probably need to add a combo forward who's an elite defender because some combination of Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, and Doncic on the perimeter looks good but not great defensively. But man oh man, we'd be well on our way to being the best passing team in the league with three guys who can create off the bounce like that. Can you imagine the out of bounds plays Dave Joerger will be able to draw up with Buddy and Bogie spotted up and Fox or Doncic handling the ball? That's two players who are virtually unguardable one-on-one and two of the best shooters in the league. It'll be a nightmare to defend these guys. It'll be open three pointers and layups/dunks all game long. We should be crying tears of joy if Luka Doncic's name gets called by the Kings on draft night. Get ready for the return of the Greatest Show on Court.

Is one of them better than the other? Who the heck cares? We were supposed to pick 7th in this draft. We'll take whichever of them is left and go home happy! Everyone else in this draft needs to work on something or fix something or get better at something to become an elite player. Luka and DeAndre are already elite and they're going to keep getting better. That's why there's a clear divide in my mind between the top 2 and everyone else. Sure someone else will probably force their way into that conversation but we don't need to bet on potential with these two. We just need to help them to stay focused off the court, keep them healthy, and allow them the chance to do what they were born to do.

I'm going to try to bow out of the conversation at this point. I feel like I've said all I need to say about it. If you're not feeling great about the position we're in draft-wise right now, watch some more videos and see if you don't get hyped up too. These are two special special players and either one of them would probably be the best player drafted by Sacramento which is actually saying something at this point. I was at DeMarcus' best game as a King. I still love the big fella and he'll always be a King in my heart. So this is no disrespect to him but I think these guys will be even better.

That was a good post, that bottom video was pretty fun to watch! Definitely has some jwill to his game.

 

[biltalent]

Sloan's conference "Forcasting performance of International players in the NBA"
This is pretty wordy, but maybe a few of the statisticians on the forum could break this down in layman's terms

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...mance-of-International-Players-in-the-NBA.pdf

I'll try my best to explain it.

The main ideas of the article that are relevant to this thread is to look (1) which statistic by players from europe translate to the NBA and (2) which statistics from europe predict success in the NBA.

The first question is pretty hands on. The author just looks at each players data achieved in euroleague and achieved in the NBA. He calculates a number that expresses the association, i.e. a correlation coefficient. The higher this coefficient, the higher the association.
The result is that pretty much all statistics correlate positively. For example, players that score more in Euroleague than other players that score less, typically also score more in the NBA than these other players. Same with rebounds, assists, blocks, ft/a, 3pt/a. However, for ft% and 3pt% there is only a very small or no such correlation. For example, you can not say that players with high 3pt% will also have a high 3pt% in the NBA.

The problem with this analysis is that it only tells us about certain statistics but not about individual success compared to other NBA players. Thus the author also looks at other variables. The problem however is how to define NBA success.
The authors uses NBA awards achieved, NBA years played, NBA minutes played, and NBA PER to define NBA success and correlates these variables with the stats from europe. The results basically show that only the following variables predict success in the NBA:
Blocks in euroleague
Awards achieved in euroleague
(Points in euroleague also correlate with NBA awards but this finding is not really robust)

Overall this is not a very deeply thought out study. Lots of methodological issues to be solved. But its a start.
In regards to Doncic you can maybe take away that we should not worry about his lower 3pt%. Also, him being one of the most productive players in europe achieving lots of awards is a positive sign.
If you want more complex models, you can check out the work by Kevin pelton from ESPN who I think does a better job creating models that predict nba success. And Doncic crushes his models.

 

[SCKingsfan]

That was a good post, that bottom video was pretty fun to watch! Definitely has some jwill to his game.

A tall Steve Nash ?

 

[sactowndog]

Here is a radio interview about Luca. Gets better at the 17 min mark.

https://shows.pippa.io/5a98c86b2554b4366cd397b0/david-pick-joins-to-talk-doncic-suns-1-pick-and-more

 

[iowamcnabb]

another podcast with Cole Zwicker. They talk about the draft at the 14 minute mark. The rest of the video is interesting as well

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Is one of them better than the other? Who the heck cares? We were supposed to pick 7th in this draft. We'll take whichever of them is left and go home happy! Everyone else in this draft needs to work on something or fix something or get better at something to become an elite player. Luka and DeAndre are already elite and they're going to keep getting better. That's why there's a clear divide in my mind between the top 2 and everyone else. Sure someone else will probably force their way into that conversation but we don't need to bet on potential with these two. We just need to help them to stay focused off the court, keep them healthy, and allow them the chance to do what they were born to do.

This is me. I watched 3/4 of Ayton's games last year and know him well. I know Doncic a lot less but I feel he's going to be a great fit in the modern NBA. Take whichever falls to us and call it a day. This is no time to get cute. Unless Atlanta or Memphis want to do some Brooklyn level of stupid trade to move up 1-2 slots, it's never going to get better than this for us.

 

[rosa u podne]

Isn't Doncic the primary ball handler on his euro team? Will he be the primary ball handler on the Kings team? If he was the primary ball handler on the euro team and he becomes a secondary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down on a per minute basis? Or if he is the primary ball handler on the Kings, will his assists go up or down relative to the euro league? These are the questions I have. And I have the same questions when it comes to fg% and points scored.

Who knows? For me it doesn't matter. If he has different role and is successfull, specific statistics don't matter. I argued wrong reading of euroligue statistics. You asked if his game will translate to the NBA. I don't know, the same as for all other prospects who played either in NCAA or high school. I guess Doncic will be good in NBA, RR impact level. Other prospects I haven't watched enough to even guess. Based on what I know, I'd say Doncic is pretty safe pick, while someone from this class will be perineal all star. As I mention in the other post, I am fine with RR level I just want to avoid Darko Milicic, Oden disaster.

 

[Kingster]

I watched a lot of Clippers games this season. between his own plantar fasciitis, injuries to almost the entire starting lineup, iso ball and lack of real purposeful movement in their offense, playing in lineups with ball dominant scoring guards such as austin rivers and lou williams, the normal adjustment to the NBA, the age at which he is making this adjustement, etc... his assists numbers suffered. i do not think Teo's assist numbers are a good example as to how assist numbers translate from euroleague to nba...

So how does one then intelligently translate euro assist stats to nba assist stats? Is there an overall multiplier that is out there that one can apply? If a multiplier existed, I would think it would be a composite of all euro players that went to the NBA, not just a couple of successful ones or a couple of unsuccessful ones that confirm one's biases either way.

 

[Kingster]

Your intense focus on raw assist numbers is strange in the context of how basketball is played in the modern NBA. Teams like multiple ball handlers and willing passers. It’s rare to see lots of players averaging 8+ assists per game anymore, and rarer still to see guys averaging 10+. The responsibility is shared now more than ever before in the NBA.

Beyond that, successful ball movement is as much about the pass-before-the-assist as the assist itself. Based on the tape I’ve seen, I have no concern about Luka Doncic’s ability to facilitate effective ball movement as either a primary or secondary ball handler. The kid has excellent court vision, and he’s skilled at finding lanes that don’t often occur to players at his age. Who cares what his assist numbers are in the NBA if he’s helping his team find good shots?

How is it strange? Is Doncic known for his defense? No. Is he known for his outside shooting? No. He's known for his playmaking ability. So what the hell stat should I be looking at, Padrino? Shot blocking? If you have stats showing "hockey assists" in euro land please feel free to share. I'd love to see them! What is strange is your abnormal obtuseness in the face of glaring obviousness.