Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[Dime Dropper]

How do you explain the stats? Ok, the assists are understated. What about the other stats? Snark isn't an argument, just snark.

The stats don't need to be explained as they are historically good. I honestly don't understand how you're using them as a stick to beat him with, when they are incredibly impressive. No other European player in the NBA or in history has put up his numbers at his age. Obviously doesn't guarantee success at the next level or mean that he's going to put up better numbers than Porzingis, but it does mean you need to find a different area to question.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

My biggest concern is defensively. If they are targeting him in the Euro league god forbid what the NBA will do. And it has nothing to do with being a Euro. Last year I watched Bogdan stay in front of Euro point guards and I thought he will be a decent defender on a step down to two guards. Which has proven true. Luca is guarding 4’s in Euro play and he’s not big enough to guard them in the NBA.

Yes, he is, and that’s exactly what he’ll do in the NBA. He’s 6’8”, 230 right now. In his prime he’ll play at a far more chiseled 230 or 240. He’ll be pretty switchable, but absolutely torch 3s and 4s on the other end. Most 3s won’t be strong enough to keep him out of the paint, and few 4s will have the lateral agility to stay in front of his handle.

 

[Kingster]

It is not about successes, it is about counting methodology. ParniValjak clearly described how is it counted and how to read them. Will Doncic be better or worst in the NBA I don't know, but his assist numbers in Euroligue are not bad.

I get that. But then the next step is how do they translate to the NBA. In an above post, it's mentioned that Rubio's assists doubled from the euro league. But as Teodosic's stats show, it may go in the opposite direction.

 

[Kingster]

The stats don't need to be explained as they are historically good. I honestly don't understand how you're using them as a stick to beat him with, when they are incredibly impressive. No other European player in the NBA or in history has put up his numbers at his age. Obviously doesn't guarantee success at the next level or mean that he's going to put up better numbers than Porzingis, but it does mean you need to find a different area to question.

We can agree on that at least. I don't think stats are the be-all, end-all. But I don't think they are off-limits either just because they don't support the player's case. If the stats don't accurately reflect the play of the player, don't you think it's useful to know why they don't accurately reflect the play of the player?

Normally, when a guy has mediocre stats and he is thought a great talent, it's because he has a high athletic ceiling and it is anticipated his skills will eventually catch up to his athleticism. Jackson Jr. would be an example. What is Doncic's situation?

 

[rosa u podne]

Rubio assists doubled, because he was primary ball handler in the NBA and not because he doubled his production. It was more or less the same, just the method of counting assists is more faborable in NBA. Teodosic played a lot off the ball. In addition to that he is aging, getting injured and slowing down. IMO he joined NBA too late.

 

[roasthawg]

We can agree on that at least. I don't think stats are the be-all, end-all. But I don't think they are off-limits either just because they don't support the player's case. If the stats don't accurately reflect the play of the player, don't you think it's useful to know why they don't accurately reflect the play of the player?

Normally, when a guy has mediocre stats and he is thought a great talent, it's because he has a high athletic ceiling and it is anticipated his skills will eventually catch up to his athleticism. Jackson Jr. would be an example. What is Doncic's situation?

I agree with what you're saying, just not the example you gave. Jackson Jr had pretty phenomenal numbers even though his minutes were limited. Rare to see a guy block shots at the rate he did and combine it with shooting efficiency on the offensive end. If he could keep those numbers in the NBA he'll be worthy of a top three selection.

 

[Mass]

I will agree on Porter, but his ceiling is drastically higher than Lukas.
They play against better top tier talent in the NCAA, while Luka plays in the Euroleague, which has a lot more of C+ talent, no stars. Which is my theory in why Luka is rated so high, because he is good, but just in the Euroleague. I wouldn't be against Luka being a King, just as long as Jackson, Porter and Bagley are gone.

So, according to you, the NCAA level is higher then the Euroleague... I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.
Please, if you don’t know anything about European basketball, don’t judge it. It’s very disrespectful to read that. It’s clear you don’t know what you’re talking about, I’m sorry.

 

[Tetsujin]

Fair enough. But here's a euro guy who in an average of 27 min/game had 6.8 assists in euro land. So what assists does he have in NBA land? 4.6 assists a game in 25 minutes of play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/milos-teodosic-1.html

Milos was injured all year and mostly reduced to a reserve role.

 

[sactowndog]

Yes, he is, and that’s exactly what he’ll do in the NBA. He’s 6’8”, 230 right now. In his prime he’ll play at a far more chiseled 230 or 240. He’ll be pretty switchable, but absolutely torch 3s and 4s on the other end. Most 3s won’t be strong enough to keep him out of the paint, and few 4s will have the lateral agility to stay in front of his handle.

That’s an interesting point if you wanted to play him at the 4 but I don’t think he is 6’ 8” without shoes and he doesn’t have much explosion to rebound.

 

[Tetsujin]

Luka (After years of film proving otherwise): sucky, just a shorter Brad Miller, probably barely even a 2nd round pick tbh

Porter (after sucking eggs in his limited NCAA film): probably the next KD

 

[burekijogurt]

Fair enough. But here's a euro guy who in an average of 27 min/game had 6.8 assists in euro land. So what assists does he have in NBA land? 4.6 assists a game in 25 minutes of play.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/euro/players/milos-teodosic-1.html

I get that. But then the next step is how do they translate to the NBA. In an above post, it's mentioned that Rubio's assists doubled from the euro league. But as Teodosic's stats show, it may go in the opposite direction.

Rubio assists doubled, because he was primary ball handler in the NBA and not because he doubled his production. It was more or less the same, just the method of counting assists is more faborable in NBA. Teodosic played a lot off the ball. In addition to that he is aging, getting injured and slowing down. IMO he joined NBA too late.

Milos was injured all year and mostly reduced to a reserve role.

In addition to his own injury, limited usage compared to Europe, and the age, Clippers kept getting their starters injured. They played tons of different lineups with different personnel which affected their cohesiveness. I would say movement was also lacking and Milos thrives when there is a lot of movement. I think the situation with Doncic will be different. My guess is his assists go up if his usage/minutes remain comparable...

 

[ParniValjak]

Instead of pairing Doncic stats with NCAA players, let's pairing them with Porzingis stats.
Same league, same opponents. Porzingis was one year older and he was playing on a bad team.
21 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 31% from three, 77% from ftline, 4.8 rpg, 0.4 apg,1.1 bpg.
He would have been a second rounder, I love this thread already hahahaha.

Different roles in their teams and different positions for starters. Let compare apples and oranges shall we?

 

[ParniValjak]

Lets get one thing clear, Euroleague is a level or two above the NCAA. No one in their right mind can possibly argue that in any way shape or form. It is rightly, widely considered the 2nd best league in the world behind the NBA.

One thing that NCAA might have over the Euroleague is the level of athleticism that players might have. Generally in college you get players who are athletically gifted so when a player goes up against his peers in the NCAA, then on occasions he goes up against NBA level athleticism and sometimes even length.

In Europe there is not as many elite level athletes (NOT saying there are not any) but just experienced, hardened basketball veterans that play a less athletic but physical brand of basketball.

 

[hrdboild]

That's the same thing everyone was saying about Tatum last year. I don't know that Porter's ceiling is higher than Doncic but if you pick a best case for him it could be a kd type of player.

Tatum played an entire season at Duke, he wasn't drafted based on how he played in High School. Harry Giles would be a better comparison in terms of draft circumstances and he went 20th. I also don't think people understand why Tatum is excelling this year. He went to an elite defensive team in need of scoring and he had an advanced back-to-the-basket midrange game already in college. He would not have been a defensive plus on most teams-- Boston's scheme let's him sit back in the passing lanes while Horford, Brown, and Smart do most of the heavy lifting. And on the other end he can create offense even if his outside jumper isn't dropping (which it has been most of the year). I don't think there's much of a comparison between Tatum and Porter and I also think Tatum's defensive shortcomings would be a much bigger problem on our team. Then again, if he's going to keep shooting 43% from three maybe that wouldn't matter.

Mostly I just don't understand how anyone can say Porter has a higher ceiling than Doncic when we've seen him play two games above the high school level and based on what he showed in those two games he's not even worthy of being drafted at all. It's all projection with him and that's a huge risk for a team in our position.

 

[roasthawg]

Tatum played an entire season at Duke, he wasn't drafted based on how he played in High School. Harry Giles would be a better comparison in terms of draft circumstances and he went 20th. I also don't think people understand why Tatum is excelling this year. He went to an elite defensive team in need of scoring and he had an advanced back-to-the-basket midrange game already in college. He would not have been a defensive plus on most teams-- Boston's scheme let's him sit back in the passing lanes while Horford, Brown, and Smart do most of the heavy lifting. And on the other end he can create offense even if his outside jumper isn't dropping (which it has been most of the year). I don't think there's much of a comparison between Tatum and Porter and I also think Tatum's defensive shortcomings would be a much bigger problem on our team. Then again, if he's going to keep shooting 43% from three maybe that wouldn't matter.

Mostly I just don't understand how anyone can say Porter has a higher ceiling than Doncic when we've seen him play two games above the high school level and based on what he showed in those two games he's not even worthy of being drafted at all. It's all projection with him and that's a huge risk for a team in our position.

Yeah I was responding to comparing mpj's style of play to Rudy Gay. That's what people were saying about Tatum last year. Doesn't matter how many games were played, the criticism is that the guy is a scorer and nothing else.

As far as upside goes with Doncic my concern is obviously athleticism. He has great stats in Europe, no one is debating that. Thing is Trae Young had the best stats in college this year and he's not in the running for a top pick. Why? Because people question if athletically he'll be able to the same things that worked for him in college in the NBA. Same concern with Doncic. If he had put up those numbers in Europe and had mpj's size and athleticism he'd be a no brainer if he was there at #2. He doesn't though. His skill level is great... So is trae's.

Overall, if I had to make the pick from my couch and trading back wasn't an option I think I'd go Doncic right now. But I don't feel good about it. Missing out on jjj or mpj could really leave a bad taste and set us back in a big way. Need to get the pick right, that goes without saying.

 

[ParniValjak]

Tatum played an entire season at Duke, he wasn't drafted based on how he played in High School. Harry Giles would be a better comparison in terms of draft circumstances and he went 20th. I also don't think people understand why Tatum is excelling this year. He went to an elite defensive team in need of scoring and he had an advanced back-to-the-basket midrange game already in college. He would not have been a defensive plus on most teams-- Boston's scheme let's him sit back in the passing lanes while Horford, Brown, and Smart do most of the heavy lifting. And on the other end he can create offense even if his outside jumper isn't dropping (which it has been most of the year). I don't think there's much of a comparison between Tatum and Porter and I also think Tatum's defensive shortcomings would be a much bigger problem on our team. Then again, if he's going to keep shooting 43% from three maybe that wouldn't matter.

Mostly I just don't understand how anyone can say Porter has a higher ceiling than Doncic when we've seen him play two games above the high school level and based on what he showed in those two games he's not even worthy of being drafted at all. It's all projection with him and that's a huge risk for a team in our position.

So you are going to base Porter's draft stock and potential based on the two games he played in collage where he clearly was still not 100% recovered from his back injury?

C'mon now, people have absolutely no right to get excited about Giles but then pot Porter for pretty much the same thing and Giles recurring injuries are MUCH more serious than Porter's back surgery from which plenty of players have recovered without any issues.

 

[miltonap]

So you are going to base Porter's draft stock and potential based on the two games he played in collage where he clearly was still not 100% recovered from his back injury?

C'mon now, people have absolutely no right to get excited about Giles but then pot Porter for pretty much the same thing and Giles recurring injuries are MUCH more serious than Porter's back surgery from which plenty of players have recovered without any issues.

I mean Giles looked like a beast in HS Porter doesn't

 

[sactowndog]

I mean Giles looked like a beast in HS Porter doesn't

How can you say that when he was on the short list pre season for the #1 pick? I was thinking at the time we needed to be #1 so we could draft Porter.

Without seeing his workouts none of us can make a judgement. But it seems premature to write off a player whom you haven’t seen.

 

[Joshoua]

I mean Giles looked like a beast in HS Porter doesn't

Giles had more perimeter skills and handles than future 25ppg player Porter. Let that sink in

 

[KingsSelecao]

I mean Giles looked like a beast in HS Porter doesn't

? Porter averaged 35 points a game in high school 35 points a game. I don't know what you're talking about. Porter was projected to be Number 1, if not for his injury. I wouldn't get too high on Giles. Especially, if he ends being nothing more than a role player. The guy has had 2 serious operations.

Vlade had the same injury as Porter and ended up playing a very long time. Giles injuries are typically career killers. Not one, but 2 torn Acl's.

 

[datamanwes]

Doncic has a very high basketball IQ. this team needs another high IQ player. High IQ guys who can play will usually find a way to win. A team of Fox, Bogie, Giles, and Doncic. All high BB IQ guys. That Excites me at the possibilities, then you add Hield and Willie and Skal to the core, along with both Mason and Jackson. You got nine young guys who are going to get better, you add Koufos and Shumpert and Temple and Zack as the replaceable pieces for trades if you can.

 

[ParniValjak]

I mean Giles looked like a beast in HS Porter doesn't

And hasn't repeated that going on 3 years now and has had more serious injuries than Porter has.

I can understand the septicemic about Porter but let's not pretend that 12 months ago he was considered by many to be a #1 pick in this draft class. At least in conversation to be #1. Now all of a sudden he is a dud, not that impressive and is a bust waiting to happen!

If 12 months ago someone said to the Kings fans that we would walk away from the 2018 NBA draft with Michael Porter Jr many here would be throwing a street party.

He missed a year due to back surgery (the type of surgery that many athletes had and went on to have great careers) and all of a sudden he wasn't impressive in high school. C'mon now! Let's at least be fair in discussing strengths and weaknesses of candidates for the #2 spot rather than belittling every other prospect except the one that people like. This pick is super important for the franchise. They need to make the right call. I sure as hell hope they are more open minded about prospects than some of the fans around here. This is not directed at you (even though I quoted your post) but in general to the whole board. The discussion is turning into a bit of a pissing contest of "my daddy is stronger than your daddy" type arguments

 

[VF21]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1000934688557490176

 

[rosa u podne]

? Porter averaged 35 points a game in high school 35 points a game. I don't know what you're talking about. Porter was projected to be Number 1, if not for his injury. I wouldn't get too high on Giles. Especially, if he ends being nothing more than a role player. The guy has had 2 serious operations.

Vlade had the same injury as Porter and ended up playing a very long time. Giles injuries are typically career killers. Not one, but 2 torn Acl's.

35 points average is imressive, competition is not. Don't you think Ayton, Bagley or even lesser NCAA talent would average 30 points a game against kids? I remember Rubio having 30-40 points game on regular bases against junior competition. 35 point average means that he was elite talent in his generation, but so are many other playes we discuss here. However, we have never seen him dominate more matured players. He might be great, but it is far from sure. What I saw in high school competition highlights is that he had physically dominant body.

That said I would not be too dissapointed if we end up with RR level player. I just want to avoid next Olowokandi, Milicic, Oden disaster.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

? Porter averaged 35 points a game in high school 35 points a game. I don't know what you're talking about. Porter was projected to be Number 1, if not for his injury. I wouldn't get too high on Giles. Especially, if he ends being nothing more than a role player. The guy has had 2 serious operations.

Vlade had the same injury as Porter and ended up playing a very long time. Giles injuries are typically career killers. Not one, but 2 torn Acl's.

Where do you guys think Giles was projected until his second ACL? Where do you guys think Skal was projected until his year at UK? I mean, I’m fine with trading back for MPJ if the Suns take Doncic, but some of the MPJ projections here (based solely on HS stats, LOL) are...optimistic. Right now, what we have on film is a sweet-shooting stretch 4 with enough handle and wiggle to attack closeouts, but not playmake. On the other end, he’s not quite strong enough to currently guard 4s and does not have the lateral agility or athletic range of motion to cover 3s. He could develop increased agility/range of motion now that his back is fixed. Personally, I think it’s likelier he gets stronger and easily covers 4s, or even plays crunchtime stretch 5. IMO, that’s a very valuable player from the 4th pick and beyond. Not top 2 material.

 

[Jkbiker]

So you are going to base Porter's draft stock and potential based on the two games he played in collage where he clearly was still not 100% recovered from his back injury?

C'mon now, people have absolutely no right to get excited about Giles but then pot Porter for pretty much the same thing and Giles recurring injuries are MUCH more serious than Porter's back surgery from which plenty of players have recovered without any issues.

sure we have a right to get excited about Giles, he was picked at #20 not #2 and might turn out to be a top player

MPJ vs Luka depends on whether Kings evaluate the players and determine which player will be our SF All-Star AND if they think his back will be a risk factor in the future - I am not qualified to make either determination so I will go with Kings pick. But would still trade with Altana to get something if target was MPJ

 

[hrdboild]

Where do you guys think Giles was projected until his second ACL? Where do you guys think Skal was projected until his year at UK? I mean, I’m fine with trading back for MPJ if the Suns take Doncic, but some of the MPJ projections here (based solely on HS stats, LOL) are...optimistic. Right now, what we have on film is a sweet-shooting stretch 4 with enough handle and wiggle to attack closeouts, but not playmake. On the other end, he’s not quite strong enough to currently guard 4s and does not have the lateral agility or athletic range of motion to cover 3s. He could develop increased agility/range of motion now that his back is fixed. Personally, I think it’s likelier he gets stronger and easily covers 4s, or even plays crunchtime stretch 5. IMO, that’s a very valuable player from the 4th pick and beyond. Not top 2 material.

This is it. I didn't like Porter at #1 even before the injury. He was somewhere in the top 5 I guess but I needed to see him prove it at the college level. Harrison Barnes was projected as a first overall pick out of HS too. Then he played in college and got exposed a bit. It's not just that the quality of competition is much lower in HS... it's hard to judge anyone on a level playing field because the level of competition is also vastly different from region to region. I'm not judging Porter on the 2 games after he came back from injury, I only brought that up to point out how limited the information we have is. Even if he comes in for a workout and looks amazing I'd be cautious about relying too heavily on how good he looks in a non-game context.

I think he's probably a stretch 4 in the NBA too because he's too upright and stiff looking on tape to really guard or attack most true wing players. His handle looks decent but I want to see him go against some real defense. If he can shoot he'll have value at any position but is a physically weak PF without any standout defensive attributes really one of the highest ceiling players in the draft? I'd rank Ayton, Doncic, Jackson, Bagley, Bamba, and even Mikal Bridges ahead of him in terms of ceiling. Porter is in the same category as Trae Young for me... we know they'll be able to score but what else will they be able to do against NBA competition?

Also, Kevin Durant is so much more than just a scorer. He's being talked about as an All-Defense team runner up this year. He came into Texas and had one of the greatest Freshman seasons anyone had ever seen, bolstering his 26ppg with 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks per game and winning the Player of the Year award. If anyone wants to compare Michael Porter to KD they're going to have to do a whole lot better than "he's 6'10" and can shoot and he was projected #1 out of HS". Those high school rankings aren't all that useful. Russell Westbrook was in the same high school class as KD and he didn't even make Rivals.com's Top 150 list that year.

Absolutely Porter is in the conversation at #5 but at #2 I think there are much better options. I don't think we should be pinning our hopes on a such a huge unknown.

 

[roasthawg]

Also, Kevin Durant is so much more than just a scorer. He's being talked about as an All-Defense team runner up this year. He came into Texas and had one of the greatest Freshman seasons anyone had ever seen, bolstering his 26ppg with 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks per game and winning the Player of the Year award. If anyone wants to compare Michael Porter to KD they're going to have to do a whole lot better than "he's 6'10" and can shoot and he was projected #1 out of HS". Those high school rankings aren't all that useful. Russell Westbrook was in the same high school class as KD and he didn't even make Rivals.com's Top 150 list that year.

This discussion might've been totally different if Porter hadn't been hurt. Per 40 mpj outrebounded freshmen kd 15 to 12. Both were over 2 stls per 40. Kd was at 28pts per 40 while mpj was at 22.

For a guy only playing parts of two games, coming off of major back surgery, being out of game shape with no real experience playing with his teammates mpj could've done much worse.

That said, yeah you're totally right you can't compare him to kd based on last year. We don't get to see the private workout though, that's where you can start making comparisons.

 

[KingsSelecao]

So, according to you, the NCAA level is higher then the Euroleague... I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.
Please, if you don’t know anything about European basketball, don’t judge it. It’s very disrespectful to read that. It’s clear you don’t know what you’re talking about, I’m sorry.

Their is a major flaw in that line of thinking.

NCAA is huge. You’re talking about hundreds of teams. Due to the number of university’s.

Let’s take the Top 10 NCAA players, or even better, pit the top 10 NBA players against Top 10 in Europe. Those Euros would get destroyed. It’s not even close. When the Euros finally have a Jordan, Kobe, or Lebron get back to me. I’ll be dead.

 

[kingsfan1984]

Im a fan of mpj, BUT Doncic i put in a clear tier just above mpj, jjj bagley.

There is no way id go mpj at #2, however, id certainly consider a draft night trade that brings a large amount of additional value our way.