Mock draft 2026

[twslam07]

Wagler intrigues me as well.

The fact that his 3PAR and FTAR are both above 47.5% is pretty impressive and unique…

So unique that I did a little bit of research to see how many top 10 picks in the past 20 years had both a 3PAR and FTAR above 47.5%. This is the list…

Eric Gordon (2008)
Nik Stauskas (2014)
Luka Doncic (2018)

That’s it. 3 players out of a pool of 200 top 10 selections. Damian Lillard barely missed the cut (.465 3PAR and .519 FTAR) and there are a couple others that were somewhat close like Trae Young (.531 3PAR and .443 FTAR) & Bradley Beal (.473 3PAR and .440 FTAR).

On top of that unique scoring profile, Wagler is an impressive passer/playmaker. So much so that he has a 2.46 AST:TO…as a freshman. He’s better in that metric compared to that list of 3 players (Doncic = 2.08, Stauskas = 1.76, and Gordon = 0.68).

Again, he has an interesting, unique scoring profile which seems to mesh very well with where the NBA has gone (threes and get to the FT line) and he’s a very good passer & playmaker who could have the potential to play a PG like role. Factor in that he’s 6’6”, a freshman, not a horrible defender, and you have quite a prospect on your hands.

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Wagler intrigues me as well.

The fact that his 3PAR and FTAR are both above 47.5% is pretty impressive and unique…

So unique that I did a little bit of research to see how many top 10 picks in the past 20 years had both a 3PAR and FTAR above 47.5%. This is the list…

Eric Gordon (2008)
Nik Stauskas (2014)
Luka Doncic (2018)

That’s it. 3 players out of a pool of 200 top 10 selections. Damian Lillard barely missed the cut (.465 3PAR and .519 FTAR) and there are a couple others that were somewhat close like Trae Young (.531 3PAR and .443 FTAR) & Bradley Beal (.473 3PAR and .440 FTAR).

On top of that unique scoring profile, Wagler is an impressive passer/playmaker. So much so that he has a 2.46 AST:TO…as a freshman. He’s better in that metric compared to that list of 3 players (Doncic = 2.08, Stauskas = 1.76, and Gordon = 0.68).

Again, he has an interesting, unique scoring profile which seems to mesh very well with where the NBA has gone (threes and get to the FT line) and he’s a very good passer & playmaker who could have the potential to play a PG like role. Factor in that he’s 6’6”, a freshman, not a horrible defender, and you have quite a prospect on your hands.

His defense in the houston game was impressive and for someone lacking strength/athleticism he gets to the line a lot like you pointed out

I like how versatile it will be to build around him compared to guys like flemming or Acuff with his size we could still draft another PG and not low size in the lineup

 

[jiimbob]

Yeah, if we’re outside the top four Wagler intrigues me most.
Figure a way to resign Precious as a big and build around a good sized front court.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Yes. He's my Dad.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Burries is a guard a lot of people are sleeping on. He has good size and plays both ends of the court.

I think it's because he's old for a Freshman (will be 21 when the season tips off). That's all I got.

 

[twslam07]

His defense in the houston game was impressive and for someone lacking strength/athleticism he gets to the line a lot like you pointed out

I like how versatile it will be to build around him compared to guys like flemming or Acuff with his size we could still draft another PG and not low size in the lineup

I have Flemings below both Wagler and Acuff at this point but the Wagler/Acuff debate is ongoing for me. Perhaps the combine measurements will be the final data point to tilt it one way or another.

But the case for Acuff is also notable compared to Wagler…

- Dawg mentality (Wagler doesn’t give me the same feeling when I watch him but it’s admittedly a “feeling”
- Volume scoring (averages 5.1 more points than Wagler per 36 min)
- Efficiency on that volume scoring (.604 TS% vs Wagler’s .597 TS%)
- AST:TO ratio (2.97 vs. Wagler’s 2.46)
- Strength (Acuff’s built like a football player and can create space with that strength. Wagler is lacking here but he has time to add it)
- Length (Acuff reportedly measured with a +4.5-5 inch wingspan meaning his wingspan is 4.5-5 inches longer than his height. Wagler’s wingspan is a little more up in the air but I’m seeing guesses of around 6’10”-7’0”. I don’t know if that’s accurate, but that would be very good for his draft stock. But coming back to Acuff…a 6’3” PG with a 6’7.5-6’8” wingspan and good strength is a good physical profile.)


I like Wagler as the better outside threat (his range beyond the line is eye popping). He’s obviously taller (and very likely longer) and he’s a better defender with the opportunity to be a solid NBA defender (as you already alluded to) which I don’t feel confident in saying about Acuff. But gun to my head, I think I favor Acuff’s offensive game more in the NBA which might get me to pull the trigger since we’re star hunting.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I think it's because he's old for a Freshman (will be 21 when the season tips off). That's all I got.

I think it's more that he's not a primary ball handler, and depending on how you define it this draft has 6 potentially elite ball handlers, which is that first element you really need to build a modern NBA team around. And he's probably going to measure out a bit small for an off guard - not terribly small - and maybe he'll have length to make up for it (I saw an estimate of a wingspan of 6'5" which isn't really head-turning).

I think offensively the best-case scenario is a guy like Jamal Murray - not really coming up as a primary ball handler but then demonstrating that yeah, actually he's that guy too in the NBA. So, you know, a really good player. I expect him to be drafted top-ten and can't see him falling out of the lottery in any case, it's just that this draft is loaded loaded LOADED with on-ball talent.

 

[bajaden]

I understand where you’re coming from. But Demar and Ingram are big outliers, and they play positions where you definitely want more 3s.

At the 1 spot, would it surprise you if the shot distribution for all-stars this year averaged 1/3 3pt, 1/3 at the rim, 1/3 midrange?

Sometimes I get confused with this negetivity with the midrange shot. Kevin Durant scores most of his points in the misrange. Dito Paul George, Kahwi Leonard, etc. Yes, it's only 2 pts instead of 3, but at the end of the day if he ends up with 20 pts on 55% shooting to go along with double digit rebounds, who cares? As long as a player is efficent, that's all that matters to me.

I'd rather have a player that scores 20 pt's on 10 or less shots, than a player that scores 30 pt's on 22 shots!

 

[bajaden]

He’s got a really good all around game. But he’s not really a kid. He’s older than Paolo Banchero

If Yaxel was 19 yr's old he'd be a top five pick. I've been following him for a couple of years now and he's one of those players thats a winner. There's not much he can't do. He's a player thats going to be a difference maker on a contending team. If I had a second 1st rd pick, and he was there, I'd grab him in a heart beat.

 

[bajaden]

I have Flemings below both Wagler and Acuff at this point but the Wagler/Acuff debate is ongoing for me. Perhaps the combine measurements will be the final data point to tilt it one way or another.

But the case for Acuff is also notable compared to Wagler…

- Dawg mentality (Wagler doesn’t give me the same feeling when I watch him but it’s admittedly a “feeling”
- Volume scoring (averages 5.1 more points than Wagler per 36 min)
- Efficiency on that volume scoring (.604 TS% vs Wagler’s .597 TS%)
- AST:TO ratio (2.97 vs. Wagler’s 2.46)
- Strength (Acuff’s built like a football player and can create space with that strength. Wagler is lacking here but he has time to add it)
- Length (Acuff reportedly measured with a +4.5-5 inch wingspan meaning his wingspan is 4.5-5 inches longer than his height. Wagler’s wingspan is a little more up in the air but I’m seeing guesses of around 6’10”-7’0”. I don’t know if that’s accurate, but that would be very good for his draft stock. But coming back to Acuff…a 6’3” PG with a 6’7.5-6’8” wingspan and good strength is a good physical profile.)


I like Wagler as the better outside threat (his range beyond the line is eye popping). He’s obviously taller (and very likely longer) and he’s a better defender with the opportunity to be a solid NBA defender (as you already alluded to) which I don’t feel confident in saying about Acuff. But gun to my head, I think I favor Acuff’s offensive game more in the NBA which might get me to pull the trigger since we’re star hunting.

I really like Acuff, but I have a serious problem with his lack of defense. Not saying he can't improve, but he has a long way to go to get where it's acceptable. I still have Fleming ahead of him, and one of the reasons is that Flemings is a very good defender, and also, a good shooter! While I'll give Acuff the edge on athleticism, don't go to sleep on Flemings, he's a surprisingly good athlete, who can explode and blow right by you.

Both players have excellent court vision and both are excellent passers. The biggest difference is that Acuff looks like a star and Flemings looks like a blue collar player who is always composed and looks in charge at all times. He doesn't come with all the bells and whistles that Acuff has.

 

[bajaden]

We'll see. Like I've said before, I don't see a ton of gap amongst any of the guards so where they fall is where they fall. Flemings was quite a bit above Acuff Jr. just a few weeks ago and now were hearing rumors some GM's see Acuff Jr. in the top 3. Usually indicative of this being a pretty up in air draft after a few picks.

One thing I wouldn't do is beleive anything a GM is saying as the truth. They have been known to lie at times. Also, I wouldn't let stats overly influence your decision. It can be part of the puzzle, but not the be all end all. I've said many times on this forum, that I go more on the eye test, and what my gut tells me. And, my track record is pretty good. I predicted before the draft that Haliburton would be the best player out of that draft. And now, I predict that Caleb Wilson with be the best player out of this draft. It's going to be tough between him and A. J. Let the best player win...

 

[Tizzy Flip]

I really like Acuff, but I have a serious problem with his lack of defense. Not saying he can't improve, but he has a long way to go to get where it's acceptable. I still have Fleming ahead of him, and one of the reasons is that Flemings is a very good defender, and also, a good shooter! While I'll give Acuff the edge on athleticism, don't go to sleep on Flemings, he's a surprisingly good athlete, who can explode and blow right by you.

Both players have excellent court vision and both are excellent passers. The biggest difference is that Acuff looks like a star and Flemings looks like a blue collar player who is always composed and looks in charge at all times. He doesn't come with all the bells and whistles that Acuff has.

Defense is such a major issue with Acuff, he falls behind Wagler, Flemings, and Brown Jr for me. If he was 6’4+ then I would overlook his defensive deficiencies. He has great offensive abilities but so does Cam Thomas.

Flemings was handcuffed in the Sampson offense. I’m not sure what blue chip PG would want to play in his system moving forward, but his style and Calipari’s style are complete opposites.

I really liked Wagler’s game since I saw his breakout for 46 against Purdue back in January. Got some Hali vibes. I think he does a great job pushing the pace but can still slow it down if needed. If we want more 3s next year from Keegan, Nique, and Hunter, we’ll need a PG that can push the pace.

 

[midtowner]

One thing I wouldn't do is beleive anything a GM is saying as the truth. They have been known to lie at times. Also, I wouldn't let stats overly influence your decision. It can be part of the puzzle, but not the be all end all. I've said many times on this forum, that I go more on the eye test, and what my gut tells me. And, my track record is pretty good. I predicted before the draft that Haliburton would be the best player out of that draft. And now, I predict that Caleb Wilson with be the best player out of this draft. It's going to be tough between him and A. J. Let the best player win...

Thank you for the insights. I’m looking forward to the official measurements. If I had to choose right now - AJ, Caleb, Wagler, Boozer are my top 4 in that order. I’m totally on the fence with Acuff, Peterson and Flemings for 5-7.

 

[Kingster]

Some interesting games last night. Flemings did not look great against Illinois. Looks like Illinois game plan was to trap and double him as soon as he got to half court and force him to pass. Sampson is known for his defense, but Underwood outcoached him on both sides. Wagler had some clutch 3s and passed well when he got to the paint and help came over. Had some shaky shots too though.

In the Zona/Arkansas game, Acuff was defended by a combo of Burries and Bradley. They both did a great job making it tough for him. Acuff definitely has a ton of offensive game and off-ball he’s really really good at reading screens and trying to get separation. It’s actually really impressive what he does without the ball. But defensively he and the rest of the team got killed. Zona shot 64% from the field and a lot were easy baskets. Burries may have been the most impressive guard last night.

This draft is so deep there are going to be dudes drafted in the 2nd round that would be definite 1st round picks in other years. There will be some really solid depth pieces in round 2.

I get the feeling that somebody in round two that Perry picks could be better than the guy he picks in round one. There is a lot of talent out there and I'm glad the Kings have two 2nd rounders.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

I get the feeling that somebody in round two that Perry picks could be better than the guy he picks in round one. There is a lot of talent out there and I'm glad the Kings have two 2nd rounders.

I get the feeling that there will be at least 1 or 2 (maybe more) teams that will end up seeing their 2nd round pick end up performing better than their top 5 or 6 pick in the 1st round. I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling that someone's gonna give out some serious Michael Olowokandi vibes throughout his playing career, and beyond.

 

[hrdboild]

I get the feeling that there will be at least 1 or 2 (maybe more) teams that will end up seeing their 2nd round pick end up performing better than their top 5 or 6 pick in the 1st round. I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling that someone's gonna give out some serious Michael Olowokandi vibes throughout his playing career, and beyond.

Yeah, this is always a risk. It doesn't always have to be a big man, but Bagley and Wiseman are other recent top 5 picks who belong in this category.

 

[hrdboild]

For fun, I thought I would list my top 10 right now. This is my ranking, not how I see the draft going.

1. Caleb Wilson
2. AJ Dybantsa
3. Cameron Boozer
4. Darryn Peterson
5. Kingston Flemings
6. Darius Acuff
7. Yaxel Lendeborg
8. Keaton Wagler
9. Labaron Philon
10. Karim Lopez

I missed this earlier and now I can't like it, so I'm dropping a reply instead.

My ranking would be very similar, I just have Philon a few spots higher. I'd be nervous about taking Peterson, but he still belongs in the top 4 on talent and potential alone.

 

[QWERTYLICIOUS]

I missed this earlier and now I can't like it, so I'm dropping a reply instead.

My ranking would be very similar, I just have Philon a few spots higher. I'd be nervous about taking Peterson, but he still belongs in the top 4 on talent and potential alone.

Do you take him at 4 if you're in charge and if 1-3 are already off the board, or do you go down a spot or few spots on the list?

 

[SacTownKid]

One thing I wouldn't do is beleive anything a GM is saying as the truth. They have been known to lie at times. Also, I wouldn't let stats overly influence your decision. It can be part of the puzzle, but not the be all end all. I've said many times on this forum, that I go more on the eye test, and what my gut tells me. And, my track record is pretty good. I predicted before the draft that Haliburton would be the best player out of that draft. And now, I predict that Caleb Wilson with be the best player out of this draft. It's going to be tough between him and A. J. Let the best player win...

He could be and opportunity will always be a factor. This is a draft without a clear number 1 like last year although I can certainly see why the typical top 3 are the top 3. So that means digging into the possibilities and what the stats or productivity show is extra important. Especially for a team like the Kings who desperately need something as close to a number 1 option as possible. If the Kings needed a PG and nothing else, it's easy, but they aren't nearly that fortunate.

 

[Telemachus]

I missed this earlier and now I can't like it, so I'm dropping a reply instead.

My ranking would be very similar, I just have Philon a few spots higher. I'd be nervous about taking Peterson, but he still belongs in the top 4 on talent and potential alone.

The only reason I have Peterson that high is all the scouts and people who do this for a living have him that high. His injury history and overall play scare me. He is talented, but I don't see a franchise player that others see. I see a poor man's Ray Allen.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I really like Acuff, but I have a serious problem with his lack of defense. Not saying he can't improve, but he has a long way to go to get where it's acceptable. I still have Fleming ahead of him, and one of the reasons is that Flemings is a very good defender, and also, a good shooter! While I'll give Acuff the edge on athleticism, don't go to sleep on Flemings, he's a surprisingly good athlete, who can explode and blow right by you.

Both players have excellent court vision and both are excellent passers. The biggest difference is that Acuff looks like a star and Flemings looks like a blue collar player who is always composed and looks in charge at all times. He doesn't come with all the bells and whistles that Acuff has.

I pretty much just go off the games vs. Arizona but Acuff had a very quiet and meaningless 28 points while the Razorbacks got tore up. Flemings had me in fits.

 

[hrdboild]

Do you take him at 4 if you're in charge and if 1-3 are already off the board, or do you go down a spot or few spots on the list?

Honestly, probably not. I don't like the "well he looked more athletic in high school" argument. So did Harry Giles. I have a tough time figuring out where to slot him right now. I think he's one of the 4 most talented players in this draft, but I don't particularly like the way he plays and then there's the question of why it's taking him so long to recover from his injuries and why he's already acting like his own brand is more important than his team as a 19 year old. It all adds up to a player I would prefer to avoid.

The only reason I have Peterson that high is all the scouts and people who do this for a living have him that high. His injury history and overall play scare me. He is talented, but I don't see a franchise player that others see. I see a poor man's Ray Allen.

Yeah, his lack of explosion around the basket is where I fall short of calling him a sure thing. He's had a few nice dunks this year but I mostly see him gliding in there and finishing with low effort layups which are going to be a lot harder for him to convert against NBA defenders. Of all the top players, he's the one I would be least surprised by if he turned out to be a bust. His shooting ought to keep him relevant at least as a role-player but then we all thought that about Ben McLemore too and I don't know that he was ever all that relevant in the NBA, even as a role-player.

It's a tough one. I'm also all-in on Caleb Wilson as the #1 guy this year. AJ and Cam Boozer are both very good options at 2 and 3 and I really like any of Flemings, Acuff, and Philon after that and could probably be convinced on Lendeborg and Wagler, I just need to watch them more. Peterson sticks out as the guy I ought to like more but just don't.

 

[Kingster]

I get the feeling that there will be at least 1 or 2 (maybe more) teams that will end up seeing their 2nd round pick end up performing better than their top 5 or 6 pick in the 1st round. I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling that someone's gonna give out some serious Michael Olowokandi vibes throughout his playing career, and beyond.

Me too. There are going to be some busts in the top 5 or so picks, imo.

 

[Joshyjosh31]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039125752164348007

Kings take Acuff over Peterson or boozer I’ll hand in my fan badge and skip the next ten years

 

[Telemachus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2039125752164348007

Kings take Acuff over Peterson or boozer I’ll hand in my fan badge and skip the next ten years

Peterson scares me to death. He has been very injury prone. He hasn't shown any of the dominance at the college level that he showed in HS. I have lost count of how many can't miss HS players that never translated to the NBA.

If Wilson and AJ are gone, I would think hard about taking Flemings, Acuff, Wagler or Phelon over Peterson. Probably not over Boozer though.

 

[dude12]

I’ll be honest, Boozer did have some trouble getting his shot blocked in the last game vs the UConn big man. He still filled up the box score and he’s good but where does he operate in the NBA game? Not a perimeter guy, Definitely a facilitator. Is he a tweener?

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Peterson scares me to death. He has been very injury prone. He hasn't shown any of the dominance at the college level that he showed in HS. I have lost count of how many can't miss HS players that never translated to the NBA.

If Wilson and AJ are gone, I would think hard about taking Flemings, Acuff, Wagler or Phelon over Peterson. Probably not over Boozer though.

He was clearly not close to healthy look at his HS tape vs at Kansas he barely got any lift on his jump shots and layups when you compare the two.

I’ll be honest, Boozer did have some trouble getting his shot blocked in the last game vs the UConn big man. He still filled up the box score and he’s good but where does he operate in the NBA game? Not a perimeter guy, Definitely a facilitator. Is he a tweener?

Jaylin Williams is is going for 17-7 when he gets 30mpg boozer is translating and will live at the line depending on the team he goes too. If anything Acuff the small guard with no defense is a dead and dying breed

 

[Telemachus]

He was clearly not close to healthy look at his HS tape vs at Kansas he barely got any lift on his jump shots and layups when you compare the two.




Jaylin Williams is is going for 17-7 when he gets 30mpg boozer is translating and will live at the line depending on the team he goes too. If anything Acuff the small guard with no defense is a dead and dying breed

There were a lot of reports saying he was close to 100% going into the tournament, but he still didn't show much. I have seen a lot of players who destroyed team in HS, but never seemed to do so in college. He may prove me wrong, but it is a big gamble for a GM with a top pick.

 

[Telemachus]

I’ll be honest, Boozer did have some trouble getting his shot blocked in the last game vs the UConn big man. He still filled up the box score and he’s good but where does he operate in the NBA game? Not a perimeter guy, Definitely a facilitator. Is he a tweener?

He reminds me a lot of Sabonis. Better outside shooter, but not as good of a facilitator. I think he will struggle to guard PFs and forced to play center.

 

[ESP47]

I’ll be honest, Boozer did have some trouble getting his shot blocked in the last game vs the UConn big man. He still filled up the box score and he’s good but where does he operate in the NBA game? Not a perimeter guy, Definitely a facilitator. Is he a tweener?

He can easily shoot well enough to be a perimeter guy. I just have my worries that his driving abilities will be limited in the NBA and that his defense is not going to cut it. His driving is more based on strength than speed and athleticism and his strength is going to still be an asset but won't be his bread and butter in the NBA like it is in college.

He reminds me a lot of Sabonis. Better outside shooter, but not as good of a facilitator. I think he will struggle to guard PFs and forced to play center.

If he can't play the 4 then there's no reason to even consider him. You can't roll with an undersized center that won't be able to play a lick of defense. You're stuck looking for a unicorn at 4 again.