Lottery position thread
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
Tonight's amazing, blowout lin over the Nets put us into sole possession of 9th place, which doesn't sound all that exciting, but we are getting close to paydirt. Had Portland not choked out a last-moment lin against Memphis tonight, we'd be in 8th. If we could turn 2 of our past wosses into lins, we'd be in 5th right now. So close, so close...
Can Muss lead us safely through this home stretch of lottery frenzy?
Stay tuned!
Can Muss lead us safely through this home stretch of lottery frenzy?
Stay tuned!
If you watch the trends, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Portland have all been winning now that they're healthy. Seattle has not, but they're only a few games ahead of us and they've been playing without their best player for two months (well, Lewis had been their best player early in the season anyway) so they might pick it up. Memphis and Boston are a lost cause but Philadelphia is actually winning more since the Iverson trade now that Igoudala is playing like a franchise player. Oh yeah and I forgot about the Bucks. They're not helpign us at all by losing a bunch of close games. They were a 500 team before all the injuries though. If they can somehow put it together, they should be winning some more games. In the eastern conference, there's even a chance for them to nab playoff spot so maybe they'll have some motivation. It's hard to predict what the Kings will do. If they play like they just did against New Jersey, even the number one spot is not outside the realm of possibility. But considering the teams we're up against are mostly young teams that have been getting better throughout the course of the season (except Seattle and Milwaukee anyway) and we're one big disfunctional mess right now, I'm predicting we finish with the fourth worst record with an outside shot at a first or second pick. Which is a nice place to be since Joakim Noah or Brandon Wright would both help a lot too. That's what I'm hoping for. A lot of things have to go our way for that to happen, but the key thing is losing ball games. And we do seem to be pretty good at that.
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If all of the above teams stay healthy, I think the Kings have a legit shot at the 5th pick. I don't see how they can get past Celts, Buck, Sixers, Grizzlies. I think Charlotte and Portland are just better teams than the Kings and should have better records than the Kings at year end. Atlanta I'm not sure about, but they play in the East, so that benefits them. Like you say, Lewis is back with Seattle and pretty soon he'll be coming into full form after his long layoff. Sonics have at least a 50-50 shot to get past the Kings in wins. The Kings schedule is just now starting to get very difficult. In addition, having veterans is not going to benefit them -- it's not like they are playing for next year like the Bobs and Hawks, for example. Also, Bibby will be thinking about his moving plans pretty soon. So, after all is said and done, I think we'll be in the 5-7 slot, which ain't bad in this draft.
Bye the way, I'm not a Noah fan. He's overhyped in my opinion, so if some team takes him before we do, I'll be happy.
Bye the way, I'm not a Noah fan. He's overhyped in my opinion, so if some team takes him before we do, I'll be happy.
So what did this lin do to our lottery position?
By the way, my new prediction is that we finish with the 5th worst record in the league, behind Boston, Memphis, Philly, and one of either Mil, Seattle, Charlotte or Atlanta. Of course, that puts us even out of Brandan Wright territory, so hopefully we'd get lucky and slip up a spot (or two) in the lottery.
Yeah, our position is unchanged, I will post any time it changes. To get into the playoffs, all else continuing as it has this year, means winning at least 67% of our games from here on out. Considering that we're sitting at 42% now, this seems extremely unlikely.
You can't usually move up one slot because of the way the lottery is set up. The first 3 picks are based totally on the pingpong balls. After that, it's based partly on who hasn't gone already, i.e. the worst team is not allowed to do any worse than 4th place, so if they were not in the top 3, they are automatically 4th. If the 2nd-worst team wasn't in the top 4, then they get their chance at 5th, and so on. Nobody is allowed to do a lot worse than their natural draft position. This setup leaves every team (below 3rd) with a little gap above them. The 5th worst team has a good shot at 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, but no shot at 4th, an excellent chance at 5th, and are otherwise virtually guaranteed 6th, and so on.
It's weird, but it works out, just take our word for it.
You can't usually move up one slot because of the way the lottery is set up. The first 3 picks are based totally on the pingpong balls. After that, it's based partly on who hasn't gone already, i.e. the worst team is not allowed to do any worse than 4th place, so if they were not in the top 3, they are automatically 4th. If the 2nd-worst team wasn't in the top 4, then they get their chance at 5th, and so on. Nobody is allowed to do a lot worse than their natural draft position. This setup leaves every team (below 3rd) with a little gap above them. The 5th worst team has a good shot at 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, but no shot at 4th, an excellent chance at 5th, and are otherwise virtually guaranteed 6th, and so on.
It's weird, but it works out, just take our word for it.
Recent nbadraft.net update has some interesting changes:
1. Noah has dropped to 6th, with the Wright "brothers" moving to 3rd and 4th.
2. Spencer Hawes has moved into the mock draft, after being a mainstay on the 2008 mock.
3. Kings still at #9, picking Thabeet. Hawes and McRoberts also potentially available at this spot. Would really like to see us move up to top 4 or 5 (either trhough wins or trade) because you have a lot more options among big men.
4. Kings 2nd round pick suddenly is now listed as being traded to Orlando (through Utah, part of Keon Clark trade). I thought this happened a long time ago. Maybe not.
1. Noah has dropped to 6th, with the Wright "brothers" moving to 3rd and 4th.
2. Spencer Hawes has moved into the mock draft, after being a mainstay on the 2008 mock.
3. Kings still at #9, picking Thabeet. Hawes and McRoberts also potentially available at this spot. Would really like to see us move up to top 4 or 5 (either trhough wins or trade) because you have a lot more options among big men.
4. Kings 2nd round pick suddenly is now listed as being traded to Orlando (through Utah, part of Keon Clark trade). I thought this happened a long time ago. Maybe not.
Unfortunately (as far as the lottery is concerned) it looks like the Kings did not get the message about losing. Minnesota and Golden State seem to be in full tank mode and are putting up less resistance than the French army these days. That being said maybe Bibby is sticking it to us on his way out by actually trying for a change and moving us down in the draft.
Regardless I now don't know what to think, after a losing streak I am like okay, now they are giving up and tanking it so just keep losing for Christ sake but no that can't get that right. Then they start winning and looking playoff worthy so then I am like okay then f'n win and show heart but then they roll into Philly and get beat by the 76ers. I don't know what to think anymore.....they beat the heck out of a supposedly good Laker team, they are playing and inferior (record wise) Portland team tonight so they should win..........but........like always just when you think they are coming around........uggggg
Regardless I now don't know what to think, after a losing streak I am like okay, now they are giving up and tanking it so just keep losing for Christ sake but no that can't get that right. Then they start winning and looking playoff worthy so then I am like okay then f'n win and show heart but then they roll into Philly and get beat by the 76ers. I don't know what to think anymore.....they beat the heck out of a supposedly good Laker team, they are playing and inferior (record wise) Portland team tonight so they should win..........but........like always just when you think they are coming around........uggggg
Yep. We could still get the 8th playoff spot. And I guess the Maloofs and Petrie will be just whooping it up if we got that. We are healthy and it seems that everyone we play against, isn't. All I can say is, if we end 8th or 9th in the West, with a lower draft pick, Petrie sure as heck better make a great deal (or deals) in the offseason to make up for his inaction before the trade deadline. Otherwise, it will demonstrate that they don't have the "guts" that Jerry West was saying is necessary to rebuild a team. We'll be in purgatory for a long, loooooong time.
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unfortunately.....
As I said in the past, with #52 and #9 being the stiffs they are and eating up so much of our cap we most likely will be in pergatory until BOTH of them are off the roster.......so I am looking forward to the end of the 2009-10 season when they are gone......IF NOT SOONER......(buyouts for both please, ASAP)
That being said, drafting from #12 to #16 for the next 3-4 years (which we seem destined to do) while we wait for them to go away may not help either, like with the draft though some it is evaluation of talent and a lot of it has to do with luck.....I mean honestly, who would have thought Kevin Martin would have been averaging 21 PPG EVER when he was drafted out of Western Carolina....THE ZANESVILLE ZAPPER like Jerry reynolds like to remind us of every game.....love JR though......Grant, he can go somewhere like #9 and #52.....lol.....
As I said in the past, with #52 and #9 being the stiffs they are and eating up so much of our cap we most likely will be in pergatory until BOTH of them are off the roster.......so I am looking forward to the end of the 2009-10 season when they are gone......IF NOT SOONER......(buyouts for both please, ASAP)
That being said, drafting from #12 to #16 for the next 3-4 years (which we seem destined to do) while we wait for them to go away may not help either, like with the draft though some it is evaluation of talent and a lot of it has to do with luck.....I mean honestly, who would have thought Kevin Martin would have been averaging 21 PPG EVER when he was drafted out of Western Carolina....THE ZANESVILLE ZAPPER like Jerry reynolds like to remind us of every game.....love JR though......Grant, he can go somewhere like #9 and #52.....lol.....
As I said in the past, with #52 and #9 being the stiffs they are and eating up so much of our cap we most likely will be in pergatory until BOTH of them are off the roster.......so I am looking forward to the end of the 2009-10 season when they are gone......IF NOT SOONER......(buyouts for both please, ASAP)
That being said, drafting from #12 to #16 for the next 3-4 years (which we seem destined to do) while we wait for them to go away may not help either, like with the draft though some it is evaluation of talent and a lot of it has to do with luck.....I mean honestly, who would have thought Kevin Martin would have been averaging 21 PPG EVER when he was drafted out of Western Carolina....THE ZANESVILLE ZAPPER like Jerry reynolds like to remind us of every game.....love JR though......Grant, he can go somewhere like #9 and #52.....lol.....
That being said, drafting from #12 to #16 for the next 3-4 years (which we seem destined to do) while we wait for them to go away may not help either, like with the draft though some it is evaluation of talent and a lot of it has to do with luck.....I mean honestly, who would have thought Kevin Martin would have been averaging 21 PPG EVER when he was drafted out of Western Carolina....THE ZANESVILLE ZAPPER like Jerry reynolds like to remind us of every game.....love JR though......Grant, he can go somewhere like #9 and #52.....lol.....
