Lottery position thread
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
We don't really know! If Charlotte loses, they stay tied with us at 33, but NY drops into a tie with us. If Charlotte wins, they drop out of a tie with us but NY stays ahead. If Minny, Portland and NY all won, we could have a huge tie and potentially benefit from better pingpong ball and coin flip chances -- but that's very unlikely. It might be better to just have Charlotte get their 34th win and fall behind us.
So I'm really not sure who we're rooting for in the Charlotte-NY game!
So I'm really not sure who we're rooting for in the Charlotte-NY game!
Good result with the NY win over Charlotte. Pulls them into a three way tie with us for 8th. If Minnesota or Portland wins, it would be a 4 way tie for 7th, and if both win, a 5 way tie for 6th...
In any event, the NY win gives us a shot at 8th (if we won coin flip) and of course if we lose tonight...
In any event, the NY win gives us a shot at 8th (if we won coin flip) and of course if we lose tonight...
Which is all well and fine if we win the coin flips, it would be great to move up. But with NY and Charlotte both tying us now, it also means that we can drop a slot lower than we could have otherwise, if we do badly at the coin flips. We'll know whether this outcome was good or bad for us in a few days, when they have broken the ties.
I hate the Timberwolves.
GO PORTLAND!!!
I hate the Timberwolves.
GO PORTLAND!!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups
I don't think the draft position between us, NY and CHA will be decided upon by a coin toss. If you click on this link and scroll to the bottom, it shows how tiebreakers are determined between 3 teams.
I don't think the draft position between us, NY and CHA will be decided upon by a coin toss. If you click on this link and scroll to the bottom, it shows how tiebreakers are determined between 3 teams.
Here's the announcement from last year:
NEW YORK, April 21, 2006 – Seven ties among teams that finished the 2005-06 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for NBA Draft 2006, which will be held on Wednesday, June 28 at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The drawings were conducted live on NBA TV earlier today at the NBA League Office in New York City by Stu Jackson, NBA Senior Vice President, Basketball Operations.
The results of the random drawings:
Charlotte (26-56) won a tie-breaker with Atlanta
Minnesota (33-49) won a tie-breaker with Boston
Houston (34-48) won a tie-breaker with Golden State
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (38-44) won a tie-breaker with Philadelphia
Chicago (41-41) won a tie-breaker with Indiana
Sacramento (44-38) won a tie-breaker with Denver
New Jersey (49-33) won a tie-breaker with Memphis
NEW YORK, April 21, 2006 – Seven ties among teams that finished the 2005-06 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for NBA Draft 2006, which will be held on Wednesday, June 28 at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The drawings were conducted live on NBA TV earlier today at the NBA League Office in New York City by Stu Jackson, NBA Senior Vice President, Basketball Operations.
The results of the random drawings:
Charlotte (26-56) won a tie-breaker with Atlanta
Minnesota (33-49) won a tie-breaker with Boston
Houston (34-48) won a tie-breaker with Golden State
New Orleans/Oklahoma City (38-44) won a tie-breaker with Philadelphia
Chicago (41-41) won a tie-breaker with Indiana
Sacramento (44-38) won a tie-breaker with Denver
New Jersey (49-33) won a tie-breaker with Memphis
Random drawing to break ties according to this article from last year:
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_a...eaks_ties_for_nba_draft_2006_order_selection/
Seven ties among teams that finished the 2005-06 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for NBA Draft 2006, which will be held on Wednesday, June 28 at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_a...eaks_ties_for_nba_draft_2006_order_selection/
Seven ties among teams that finished the 2005-06 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for NBA Draft 2006, which will be held on Wednesday, June 28 at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
1-250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2-199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3-156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4-119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5-88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6-63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7-43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8-28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9-17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10-11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11-8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12-7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13-6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14-5 combinations, 0.5% chance
In the event of a tie, a simple tiebreaker (usually a coin flip) is performed to determine which team gets the better position. The combinations for the spots in question are split evenly among the tied teams with any extra pick given to the winner of the tiebreaker.
So, it seems to me, the order of selection is by coin flip. My guess is with a 3-way tie, they might use a 3-way draw. It just says usually a coin toss.
However, the number of chances you get at the top 3 picks is determined by adding (in our case) the chances for 8/9/10 and dividing by three. So even if we ended up with the 10th selection, we would still have more chances at a top 3 pick, than a #10 would normally get. What kind of sucks for the #8 slot is that they actually get fewer chances than a #8 would normally get, but the consolation is getting to pick higher than the two teams you beat in the "coin toss." Unless one or both actually greatly luck out and get 1, 2 or 3.
Anyway, tying for #8, is better than finishing alone at #10.
2-199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3-156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4-119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5-88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6-63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7-43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8-28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9-17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10-11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11-8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12-7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13-6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14-5 combinations, 0.5% chance
In the event of a tie, a simple tiebreaker (usually a coin flip) is performed to determine which team gets the better position. The combinations for the spots in question are split evenly among the tied teams with any extra pick given to the winner of the tiebreaker.
So, it seems to me, the order of selection is by coin flip. My guess is with a 3-way tie, they might use a 3-way draw. It just says usually a coin toss.
However, the number of chances you get at the top 3 picks is determined by adding (in our case) the chances for 8/9/10 and dividing by three. So even if we ended up with the 10th selection, we would still have more chances at a top 3 pick, than a #10 would normally get. What kind of sucks for the #8 slot is that they actually get fewer chances than a #8 would normally get, but the consolation is getting to pick higher than the two teams you beat in the "coin toss." Unless one or both actually greatly luck out and get 1, 2 or 3.
Anyway, tying for #8, is better than finishing alone at #10.
Okay, take this for what you will, but after looking at Kennadog's numbers, and the numbers over at the wiki (which is proabbly where kenna got them from? Yes?) this is how I think our odds turn out:
Tied for 8th/9th/10th
which if you look at the example year at the bottom of the wiki, means that the percentages for the 8th spot, 9th spot, and 10th spot, will be be added up and divided by three. Each team getting an equal %.
So:
total chance of #1:
5.6% divided by 3 = 1.87%
total chance of #2:
6.6% divided by 3 = 2.2%
total chance of #3:
7.9% divided by 3 = 2.63%
Total chance of landing a Top 3 pick =: 1.87 + 2.2 + 2.63 = 6.7%
Note, that there is a easily spottable error in the following breakdowns (i.e. they do not add up to 100%, so the fact that we are tied must tweak the percentages higher for 8th and lower for 10th (reason being that due to the tie the 10th pick this year has a higher than normal chance of going Top 3, and thus knocking the 8th place team back into 9th/10th, whereas the 8th place team due to the tie has a lower than normal chance at going Top 3. Anyway:
If we win the coin flip or whatever to be called "8th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, a 72.5% chance to pick 8th, 18.4% at 9th and about 1% at 10th.
If the coin flip makes us "9th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, a 79.7% chance to pick 9th, 12.1% at 10th and about 1% at 11th.
If the coin flip makes us "10th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, an 87.0% chance to pick 10th, 8.9% at 11th and about 1% at 12th.
Tied for 8th/9th/10th
which if you look at the example year at the bottom of the wiki, means that the percentages for the 8th spot, 9th spot, and 10th spot, will be be added up and divided by three. Each team getting an equal %.
So:
total chance of #1:
5.6% divided by 3 = 1.87%
total chance of #2:
6.6% divided by 3 = 2.2%
total chance of #3:
7.9% divided by 3 = 2.63%
Total chance of landing a Top 3 pick =: 1.87 + 2.2 + 2.63 = 6.7%
Note, that there is a easily spottable error in the following breakdowns (i.e. they do not add up to 100%, so the fact that we are tied must tweak the percentages higher for 8th and lower for 10th (reason being that due to the tie the 10th pick this year has a higher than normal chance of going Top 3, and thus knocking the 8th place team back into 9th/10th, whereas the 8th place team due to the tie has a lower than normal chance at going Top 3. Anyway:
If we win the coin flip or whatever to be called "8th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, a 72.5% chance to pick 8th, 18.4% at 9th and about 1% at 10th.
If the coin flip makes us "9th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, a 79.7% chance to pick 9th, 12.1% at 10th and about 1% at 11th.
If the coin flip makes us "10th", then we have a 6.7% chance to pick Top 3, an 87.0% chance to pick 10th, 8.9% at 11th and about 1% at 12th.
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I have no idea whether this is how they do it but it makes sense.
Three coins. Each team picks either heads or tails. All three are flipped. If heads comes up twice, and tails once, tails gets the highest pick. If three heads comes up (or three tails) then the flip is done again.
However, it probably isn't done this way! My way also doesn't account for some possible scenarios (eg. two teams picking heads, and heads comes up only once, thus both teams "win" the highest pick)
Anyone able to clear it up? I think I'm way off. Must have saw this technique on a film or something!
Three coins. Each team picks either heads or tails. All three are flipped. If heads comes up twice, and tails once, tails gets the highest pick. If three heads comes up (or three tails) then the flip is done again.
However, it probably isn't done this way! My way also doesn't account for some possible scenarios (eg. two teams picking heads, and heads comes up only once, thus both teams "win" the highest pick)
Anyone able to clear it up? I think I'm way off. Must have saw this technique on a film or something!
I doubt it's an actual coin flip. They probably just put the team names into their fancy bowl shaped like a cut off basketball and draw them out one at a time.
As for the lottery, it's not a system that looks exciting on TV. They draw out 4 ping pong balls from a hopper with 14 balls numbered 1 -14. They then have a sheet with all the possible combinations divided among the teams in the lottery. You can see the number of combination chances for each team in Kennadog's post above. So in the 8,9,10 tie, it goes 28 + 17 + 11 = 56 then 56 / 3 = 18.6. So round that off and each tied team will receive 18 number combinations. I'm guessing the extra 2 combinations are marked as NO TEAM. So they would just redraw in the unlikely chance that combination gets drawn. Riveting, eh?
As for the lottery, it's not a system that looks exciting on TV. They draw out 4 ping pong balls from a hopper with 14 balls numbered 1 -14. They then have a sheet with all the possible combinations divided among the teams in the lottery. You can see the number of combination chances for each team in Kennadog's post above. So in the 8,9,10 tie, it goes 28 + 17 + 11 = 56 then 56 / 3 = 18.6. So round that off and each tied team will receive 18 number combinations. I'm guessing the extra 2 combinations are marked as NO TEAM. So they would just redraw in the unlikely chance that combination gets drawn. Riveting, eh?