[Game] Kings vs. Suns, 11/08/21 7pm Pacific 10pm Eastern

[kingwin]

Booker read the play and was cheating into the passing lane so... kinda?

ok. great analysis. u dont need to make up scenarios to be mad about.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Yeah but those teams usually wind up losing.

There is difference between drawing up a three pointer down three and randomly panicking and jacking up a thirty footer when you're down two with quite a bit of time left on the clock (Luke drew up a Barnes iso for two there that the Suns sniffed out btw).

I would think the percentages tend to greatly favor the team up 3 with under :10 to go regardless what the opposition does.

Are there detailed numbers available from a wide sample size of teams opting for a quick 2 when time permits all while having a time out available versus those opting for 3?

You may not agree with the decision but it’s far from unprecedented. There was plenty of time to employ the strategy.

Unless there is overwhelming statistical analysis demonstrating it to be far lower success rate given the circumstances the KINGS faced, I don’t see it fair to overly criticize.

 

[Livinthedream]

The fact that someone can watch the same play and come away with the opposite POV proves exactly why the call is “subjective”. The call on the floor should have stood. It makes zero sense to change a subjective call on the floor with another subjective call via replay. That’s not how replay is supposed to work.

As for your assertion that he established legal guarding position, how do you explain him lifting and dragging his right leg backward to get even better position as HB changed direction with his euro step? Go re-watch. He was not set!

Furthermore IDK when backpedaling then stopping right in front of someone on a fast break became acceptable defense, but it’s beyond lame. That didn’t used to fly, along with the myriad of traveling moves everyone uses today.

Regardless, while the block/charge rules have always been open to subjective interpretation, what Booker did doesn’t pass the eye test. He wasn’t set for even close to a count and further re-established his right leg position a split second before HB contacted him. Hence he was moving and not set!

In real time I get seeing it either way. But in slow-mo you can clearly see him re-establish. And see that he wasn’t set long enough.

It was a terrible overturn. The entire point of replay is that the call made live stands unless conclusive evidence shows otherwise. They are overturning far too many calls via subjective option, not conclusive evidence. Because he wasn’t conclusively set. No chance.

A defensive player has a right to a spot on the floor. Both players can be moving and the offensive player still does not have a right to go through him and initiate contact. Just like a defender can jump with a player, and not be called for a foul as long as his arms are straight up.

 

[SacTownKid]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458144459208773636

Everyone just needs to relax tbh. We've played the hardest schedule in the league by a decent margin with a positive Net Rating

True, but if Walton does what he did at the start of the 3rd strategically then they better start coming up with better excuses now because it's going to be another year of 2 steps forward, 2 back. haha. Almost every team this season has been without a major player so it all goes both ways. These teams missing one of their top 3 probably is no longer in the discussion of hardest schedule.

 

[hrdboild]

The thing you're missing is Fox's play has regressed. It's one thing if he gets paid and his play has leveled off. It's another if he gets paid and his play has fallen off a cliff. 11 games is sufficient sample size to worry.

I would agree that 11 games is a sufficient sample to worry about what might be wrong with Fox right now and whether it's merely a slump or the beginning of something more serious. But I don't think it's large enough to count as regression yet. He's had 5 seasons of continual progression before this. If these are still his numbers at the end of the season, then I will agree that he has regressed. Right now I think his production is not that far off from his usual numbers if he just fixes his shooting percentages. The eye test is more of a concern but I'm on record already since the first week of the Luke Walton era in believing that his offensive "system" is broken and it's a miracle Fox was able to be as effective as he was last year with a half dozen plays and a license to "just wing it" when those plays inevitably go nowhere.

I also meant to mention the drastic change in how shooting fouls are called in my last post, which is impacting a lot of the league's top scorers. The league has changed the ball and changed their rules this off-season with regards to how they're officiating contact on ball handlers. It's going to take primary ballhandlers some time to feel out those changes and find new ways to gain an edge when driving to the basket. That's not really a problem if your goal is just to bomb away from way behind the arc like Buddy... which is evidently what the league office thinks basketball is supposed to be.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

A defensive player has a right to a spot on the floor. Both players can be moving and the offensive player still does not have a right to go through him and initiate contact. Just like a defender can jump with a player, and not be called for a foul as long as his arms are straight up.

Yes, a defensive player has a right to be on the floor. But just like when the charge/block takes place near the restricted area, the defender must be set and not re-adjusting position when the contact occurs.

Booker re-adjusted his position and was not set when the contact occurred. I don’t think he was set long enough even before he re-adjusted his right leg to better slide in front of HB after he made his first Euro step.

Regardless, we can debate about it all day. The call was at least close enough that the on-floor call should have stood. That’s the larger point. If it had been called a charge on the floor, I’d have much less of a problem with the call standing for reasons already stated.

They simply should not be overturning subjective calls with another subjective call. It needs to be 100% undeniable or the call on the floor stands. This was not 100% undeniable.

 

[Tetsujin]

I would think the percentages tend to greatly favor the team up 3 with under :10 to go regardless what the opposition does.

Are there detailed numbers available from a wide sample size of teams opting for a quick 2 when time permits all while having a time out available versus those opting for 3?

You may not agree with the decision but it’s far from unprecedented. There was plenty of time to employ the strategy.

Unless there is overwhelming statistical analysis demonstrating it to be far lower success rate given the circumstances the KINGS faced, I don’t see it fair to overly criticize.

Yeah, I'm not good enough with numbers to even try to look that up. The thing to keep in mind though is that the Suns have two of their best free throw shooters in the league on their team (and Crowder is currently at 90% on the year as well) and Booker most definitely wasn't going to miss two in a row again.

Extending the game in the last minute isn't a bad plan per se but with less than ten seconds on the clock it just seems like trying to use a garden hose to put out a forest fire.

 

[Tetsujin]

ok. great analysis. u dont need to make up scenarios to be mad about.

Huh?

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Yeah, I'm not good enough with numbers to even try to look that up. The thing to keep in mind though is that the Suns have two of their best free throw shooters in the league on their team (and Crowder is currently at 90% on the year as well) and Booker most definitely wasn't going to miss two in a row again.

I agree, percentage wise Booker wasn’t likely to miss again. But percentage wise he shouldn’t have missed the two that he did miss. He very well could have missed at least one again. Same goes for any other shooter. Strange things happen under pressure.

Extending the game in the last minute isn't a bad plan per se but with less than two seconds on the clock it just seems like trying to use a garden hose to put out a forest fire.

There was 7.8 on the clock as Fox held the ball to inbound it. There was 5.8 on the clock after throwing the
late pass that Metu fumbled out of bounds.

It’s pretty easy to conclude less time would have elapsed had Fox executed the play properly and hit Metu as he became open going directly to the basket. I’ve re-watched the play numerous times. The play was there to be had rather easily. But Fox looked away for some reason then came back to it too late.

Point being, there would have been far more than 2 seconds (or less) remaining. Likely as many as 5-6 seconds assuming the KINGS were able to foul quickly. Even if there was only 3-4 that’s still plenty of time when inbounding from half court.

 

[The_Jamal]

True, but if Walton does what he did at the start of the 3rd strategically then they better starly coming up with better excuses now because it's going to be another year of 2 steps forward, 2 back. haha. Almost every team this season has been without a major player so it all goes both ways. These teams missing one of their top 3 probably is no longer in the discussion of hardest schedule.

Yeah we'll see. I think the only 2 games where we were clearly the better team on paper was the Pelicans games, which we won. People were clowning the Pacers, but they're gonna make the playoffs, especially with Carlisle at the helm. And yeah the Suns without Ayton, but still it's the 2nd night of a B-B to take on the western champs.

What's going to dictate our success is how we beat up these bad teams. If you can hover around .500 against good teams (like we did) and really beat up the bottom feeders, you probably have a good chance to make the playoffs. 4-game road trips are tough, but these are all teams we'll likely be favored against. Need to be 3-1 to really keep the playoff momentum going

 

[Tetsujin]

I agree, percentage wise Booker wasn’t likely to miss again. But percentage wise he shouldn’t have missed the two thay he did. He very well could have missed at least one again. Same goes for any other shooter. Strange things happen.



There was 7.8 on the clock as Fox held the ball to inbound it. There was 5.8 on the clock after throwing the
late pass that Metu fumbled out of bounds.

It’s pretty easy to conclude less time would have elapsed had Fox executed the play properly and hit Metu as he became open going directly to the basket. I’ve re-watched the play numerous times. The play was there to be had rather easily. But Fox looked away for some reason then came back to it too late.

Point being, there would have been far more than 2 seconds (or less) remaining. Likely as many as 5-6 seconds assuming the KINGS were able to foul quickly. Even if there was 3-4 that’s still plenty of time when inbounding from half court.

Whoops, yeah, meant to say less than ten seconds lol. Definitely moe than two secs.

 

[hrdboild]

I find it fascinating that this fanbase seems more critical of the team now that it's been playing solid defense for a good ten game span than it was when, say, Dave Joerger torpedoed a potential playoff run because he was upset about the assistant GM and the Kings drafting Marvin Bagley. This team is displaying a level of competence on defense that it hasn't really shown since Mike Malone got fired or even dating back to the Ron Ron/Bonzi Kings. We're seeing the Kings stay in games they would have absolutely gotten pantsed in over most of the last ten years and, more importantly, we're seeing easily identifiable room for improvement. This isn't an "OH GOOD LORD! I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS TEAM LET'S PANIC AND DO SOMETHING KANGSY" situation anymore but rather a "Keep up the defensive intensity and try to fix the offense and defensive play calls and schematics to maximize the talent already on the roster" situation. One big trade or transaction might add to the problems rather than address them.

The one thing that really confuses me, given the offensive issues this team is having in general and criticisms of Fox's mental engagement, is this fixation on Ben Simmons as the answer to all of our problems. Last I checked, offensive issues and mentally checking out were the two things Ben Simmons is as elite at as playing defense.

I'm not even saying the Kings would be a worse team with Ben Simmons instead of Fox or whatever. Ben Simmons is a really good player, there's no denying that. But I think it's naïve to expect him to come in and randomly become a newer, more confident, better player the second he leaves Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Fox has shown himself to be the only King capable of generating his own offense on ball, even if the shots haven't been going in this season at the same rate they were last year. Couple that with a coach shifting him to a different role (more of his baskets are assisted than ever in his career) and generally tinkering with the scheme that made him a 25 point scorer last season and sure he's going to look off. This doesn't make him immune to criticism of course. He's taking far too many pull up mid-range shots on the year (partly a product of Walton having him take more secondary side drives than those from primary middle-out actions) and he still has occasional lapses on the defensive end (he also has games where he has three steals and three blocks like he did last night) and his shot in general appears to have left him. When he edges back towards his shooting averages from his career instead of the career lows he's having right now, things will look better.

When the only two guys who seem to be having above-average success in an entire offensive system are a ten-year vet seeing his highest usage numbers since he was the primary option on a bad Dallas team and a shooting guard who pretty much ignores whatever offensive principles the scheme dictates he follow to shoot at every opportunity he gets, the issue appears to be more on the scheme than it is with the personnel. But it's fixable by simply going back to some of what we were doing before.

The idea of trading for Ben Simmons has grown on me since the season started. The impact that adding a 6'10 first team all-defense swiss army knife defender would have for this team would probably propel us to a mid-seed and maybe even home court advantage in the first round. That's only if we also keep Davion as our point of attack defender though and don't completely fall apart offensively by subtracting too many scorers and that's why I think it would have to be Halliburton rather than Fox going back to Philadelphia as the key piece. Obviously I would hate to lose Tyrese but you can't build a team around Ben Simmons and not have a go-to scorer like Fox next to him. And if you're adding Simmons you probably want him at least co-handling the ball as well which makes at least one of our ballhandling guards redundant. I don't think it's a slam dunk move for the same reasons you listed -- Simmons collapsed in the playoffs last year and he seems to be doing everything he can to avoid accepting responsibility for his own failings and working to get better. So is it a buy-low move or just a dumb one? You only make that move if you think he'll accept responsibility for his own weaknesses once he gets out of a situation which has become toxic, and that's anyone's guess.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

eliminating red meat isn't as hard once you realize it gives you acid reflux. by the way, don't get pulled into the plant-based scheme, keep it simple. quinoa, lentils, beans = victory and tasty

Lower carbs eliminated acid reflux for me, so I think it's not as simple as red meat in/out. Mine was at its worst on a high-burrito diet.

 

[kingsboi]

Lower carbs eliminated acid reflux for me, so I think it's not as simple as red meat in/out. Mine was at its worst on a high-burrito diet.

not saying it's strictly red meat as the main culprit. It's simply one of many. What you included in your burrito very well could of given you acid reflux such as onions, tomatoes and lime juice

 

[KingsFanSince85]

LOL.

Tell me you know nothing about math without telling me you know nothing about math

13% of the season is enough to worry.

Well, this settles it. Damian Lillard is screwed just like Swipa.

 

[kingdivac]

Fox isn’t playing great but Harkless with 1 board in 17 mins and zeros everywhere else is a problem. The roster is just terribly constructed.

Indeed, you cannot have goose-eggs as a starter - that can't sit. Harkless is hurting the team's cause with his disappearing act on offense. It's Walton's stubbornness that it happened twice in a row.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Do you really trust Luke Walton to draw up two good plays in a row?

Amongst my list of complaints about Walton, drawing up plays out of a timeout has not *historically* been one of them. In fact, I think he has shown himself to be pretty good at that aspect of his job. The last two games? Not so much, but execution has at least played a role.

The play call yesterday that should have resulted in an easy lob for Metu actually worked, at least to the extent that Metu was wide open. Fox didn't get the pass in on time (execution), and going for two in that situation is a questionable but not necessarily wrong call (strategy), but the play design got a man wide open at the bucket.

 

[SacTownKid]

Amongst my list of complaints about Walton, drawing up plays out of a timeout has not *historically* been one of them. In fact, I think he has shown himself to be pretty good at that aspect of his job. The last two games? Not so much, but execution has at least played a role.

The play call yesterday that should have resulted in an easy lob for Metu actually worked, at least to the extent that Metu was wide open. Fox didn't get the pass in on time (execution), and going for two in that situation is a questionable but not necessarily wrong call (strategy), but the play design got a man wide open at the bucket.

Yeah, just like Joerger, that's one of the few areas you can't make a complaint about. The issue is overthinking when it's not required. When thinking becomes a key part of a tight game Walton is usually pretty good. I'd say just behind Joerger when compared to every single coach since the Kings have been a dumpster fire.

 

[SacTownKid]

Indeed, you cannot have goose-eggs as a starter - that can't sit. Harkless is hurting the team's cause with his disappearing act on offense. It's Walton's stubbornness that it happened twice in a row.

Monte has to work to do. GR3 one year and Harkless as the upgrade will not cut the mustard. It didn't in the first place.

 

[The_Jamal]

Well, this settles it. Damian Lillard is screwed just like Swipa.

Honestly, should just forget about his 6x All-NBA appearances. These first 10 games are who he is now.

 

[Tetsujin]

Honestly, should just forget about his 6x All-NBA appearances. These first 10 games are who he is now.

Sorry guys, James Harden and Trae Young suck now and will suck until they retire. Those are the rules.

 

[Tetsujin]

Also, while Luke deserves credit for playing and sticking with Damian Jones, he probably deserves some blame for playing him the entire fourth quarter without any breaks. Poor dude went from DNP for the first ten games to playing twelve whole minutes in a row.

 

[sactowndog]

Who in that lineup is going to be capable of creating their own shot? How are we going to be generating solid offensive looks when teams just sag off of Simmons and help off of Holmes because they're totally non-factors offensively when outside of the paint. Are we moving Haliburton off-ball again after making all these grand gestures at making him the focal point of the offense? Fox at least attempts outside shots enough to keep defenses honest. Simmons pretty much refuses to shoot anything that isn't a direct drive to the hoop and that's only for the first three quarters, after which he apparently won't shoot at all. Barnes isos only work so much and work even less when people know they're coming. Defense be damned, how is that team going to be able to score anything when the game's on the line?

Yeah I agree Holmes and Simmons aren’t a great match though you can run a Simmons/Holmes pick and role and play Hali off the ball. Also Mitchell like Fox can take other players off the dribble.

But you have options you don’t have otherwise. You can run with Simmons as a small ball 5 surrounded by shooters. Now your small ball lineup: Simmons, Barnes, Buddy, Hali, Mitchell has some punch.

Metu can play more as can Len both of who can shoot outside and they are surrounded by elite defenders.

 

[dude12]

Amongst my list of complaints about Walton, drawing up plays out of a timeout has not *historically* been one of them. In fact, I think he has shown himself to be pretty good at that aspect of his job. The last two games? Not so much, but execution has at least played a role.

The play call yesterday that should have resulted in an easy lob for Metu actually worked, at least to the extent that Metu was wide open. Fox didn't get the pass in on time (execution), and going for two in that situation is a questionable but not necessarily wrong call (strategy), but the play design got a man wide open at the bucket.

Like Luke, I went back to the tape to watch that out of bounds play. If Metu just stays where he was which was at the hoop, that pass is delivered to where he was but he started to gain ground on the pass and it made it appear high…..to be clear, not a perfect pass but if Metu stayed right by the basket, that pass was there.

 

[sactowndog]

Do you really trust Luke Walton to draw up two good plays in a row?

Well he certainly drew up 1 as Metu was wide open. As much has mods get on KB about Fox your comments about Luke are equally over the top. The strategy was fine. Fox’s execution was brain dead. But Fox has always been a 2 guard in a points body.

 

[dude12]

Putting the snark aside for a minute, has anyone heard what the players are saying about the new ball? I mean, it’s a thing in regards to the lower shooting percentages. What is it about the ball?

 

[sactowndog]

Like Luke, I went back to the tape to watch that out of bounds play. If Metu just stays where he was which was at the hoop, that pass is delivered to where he was but he started to gain ground on the pass and it made it appear high…..to be clear, not a perfect pass but if Metu stayed right by the basket, that pass was there.

Yes Metu should have stopped but the initial F up was Fox. It was a good play design and forces PHX to make 2 with limited downside as you had a timeout.

 

[dude12]

Well he certainly drew up 1 as Metu was wide open. As much has mods get on KB about Fox your comments about Luke are equally over the top. The strategy was fine. Fox’s execution was brain dead. But Fox has always been a 2 guard in a points body.

Wrong. Go back and look at that play. Metu left his area. Fox passed it to where he was and Metu was moving forward towards the ball. Not blaming either guy but it’s not cut and dried Fox’s error

 

[sactowndog]

Indeed, you cannot have goose-eggs as a starter - that can't sit. Harkless is hurting the team's cause with his disappearing act on offense. It's Walton's stubbornness that it happened twice in a row.

Walton’s or Monte’s stubbornness? Who gave Walton a lineup with 1 starting 2-3-4 and 3 main guys (Hali, Mitchell, Fox) who play best with the ball in their hands?

 

[sactowndog]

Wrong. Go back and look at that play. Metu left his area. Fox passed it to where he was and Metu was moving forward towards the ball. Not blaming either guy but it’s not cut and dried Fox’s error

Fox was way late with the pass.

1) The play design was well done
2) Fox F’d up the timing of the pass, even said as such.
3) Once Fox F’d up Metu should have stopped.