Kings lose tie breaker, get #7 pick!

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#91
Let's say the BPA at 7 or 8 when we pick is Trae Young and Colin Sexton. I don't think that is a major issue. We could possibly decide to follow the Trail Blazers backcourt:

Damian Lillard is 6ft 3 and 195lbs
CJ McCollum is 6ft 3 and 190lbs

Currently Fox is listed at 6ft 3 and 175lbs. Trae Young is listed at 6ft 2 and 180lbs, while Colin Sexton is listed at 6ft 3 and 190lbs. With a bit of work on adding muscle there's no reason why Fox and Young can't add a bit more to their frame if the team felt that was needed. Otherwise stick with them as the new look backcourt. I'm not saying they will be as good as Lillard and McCollum, but trying to replicate an explosive scoring backcourt might be an option.

The alternative could be to look at teams that might want to trade for a point guard. Orlando spring to mind. If they decide to take Bamba, they might be willing to trade for Young or Sexton. The best option could be if they pick Bagley or Porter, that makes Isaac or Gordon expendable and could be an option in a trade. Let them send us their first round pick for next year. Alternatively see if we can trade back with the Clippers, maybe they'll want a point guard and will send us their two picks.

Granted the best scenario for us is if a big or a forward falls to us at 7 or 8, but a point guard is not really the end of the world.
That's a major issue tbh

You know why?

Sexton was shooting 33 % from the three in his freshman year, De'Aaron Fox 24 % from the three in his freshman year...

While Damian was shooting just a little under 40 % from three in his college career and C.J. McCollum was shooting 38 % from three in his college career and over 50 % in his last year... you see the difference? I don't trust a backcourt which can't shoot the ball good, I know Fox showed some flashes last year, but he was hot/cold all the time.

And we have so many guards who will need playing time next year, Fox/Mason/Buddy/Bogdanovic likely we will sign some vet also if we are not keeping Temple.

We just have to hope that Porter JR drops to us, because our depth at SF is Justin Jackson only... I have a feeling we will sign Hezonja, but if the Kings try to sign max contract to add at the forward spot with Jabari or Gordon it will be again another move to get us deeper in the mediocrity, because those two will not be game changers who will likely get Max money this offseason.
 

hrdboild

Hall of Famer
#92
Fox and Sexton could be a tough backcourt pairing at first until both guys get their shooting legs but you wouldn't have that problem with Young. And nobody is really talking about Gilgeous-Alexander but he should probably be in the conversation too. He can also shoot and defend multiple positions. Why would we be running them together though when we have Hield and Bogdanovic already shooting the cover off the ball? If you get another guard someone ends up on the bench as a supersub with either Bogie or Buddy. That's 48 minutes of elite guard play any way you slice it and we fill in the other positions with versatile defenders, shooters, and rebounders.

There's no reason to make this more complicated than it is. We've made every draft mistake a team can make over the last 10 years. Even the picks we got right came with issues (Tyreke was injury prone and a poor shooter, DeMarcus had much publized attitude concerns that never went away, Whiteside is a knucklehead who doesn't take constructive criticism well, Isaiah is a terrible defender and can be a black hole on offense) This time let's not get cute trying to craft a perfect lineup and let's just draft the best guy on the board. If it's another PG so be it. We'll find a way to make it work. We're just as stacked with potential talent at the C/PF position with Skal, Willie, and Giles -- especially when you consider that teams are running with only 1 traditional big for much of the game now -- but that shouldn't deter us from taking a big guy if that's how the draft plays out. We can get wings in other ways. If we draft Porter, Mikal Bridges, or Miles Bridges it should be because they're the prospect we believe in most of the guys available not because we're so desperate for a wing that we ignore everyone else. The #7 pick this year is a great spot to be in provided we don't screw it up again.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#93
Here's the thing, Vlade and Joerger have already talked about how they're going to make the young guys earn their PT. If we did draft a guard like Trae Young, he would get the Malik Monk treatment. You really think Joerger will let our rookie play through his mistakes? dO He didn't even let Fox or Buddy do that until January.

I'm just not as excited by our "big 3" as most fans are. I don't even think the coaches can even put them in a position to succeed. It's not a coincidence that Buddy and Fox "broke out" after Joerger benched the vets.

Malik Monk got the Malik Monk treatment because he objectively sucked this year.
 
#94
Now for all intents and purposes I think this is not a fair statement. The organization that played to win, the players that went out and competed, do not deserve to get a worse draft pick. We shot ourselves in the foot in terms of draft positioning due to a flawed system, and we have to live with the suboptimal results, but in no way does the team "deserve" to be worse off, let's get that clear.
We “shot ourselves in the foot” by choice. Vlade and Joeger made that decision to develop the current young players over trying to improve draft position to get a shiny new toy. Whether the team is better or worse off as a result of that decision remains to be seen next year. But whether the results are good or bad results; the team, the supportive local media, and the large number of vocal anti-tank fans certainly deserve the results.

If this team plays well next year and contends for the playoffs I will gladly come back and eat crow.
 
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Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#95
We “shot ourselves in the foot” by choice. Blade and Joeger made that decision to develop the current young players over trying to improve draft position to get a shiny new toy. Whether the team is better or worse off as a result of that decision remains to be seen next year. But whether the results are good or bad results; the team, the supportive local media, and the large number of vocal anti-tank fans certainly deserve the results.

If this team plays well next year and contends for the playoffs I will gladly come back and eat crow.
How dare the Kings try to develop young talent this year instead of punting the ball so they could try to do the same thing next year
 
#96
Nope.

4-10 is a wash. The mocks are all over the place, and some of the guys in the upper half of the top 10 have major bust potential to go along with the upside (JJJ, Bamba, Porter) while the guys available to us are safer picks with decent ceilings (the Bridges).

Would I prefer a high upside pick like Bamba? Heck yeah. But I'm not going to lose sleep over it. I stopped pulling my hair out over our halfarsed tank months ago.

Vivek was gonna pick Trae with the 1st pick anyways. Now we can get him at 7 or 8! (I keed, I keed)
I am not a Miles Bridges fan at all. Not terribly long. Straight line dribble with a marginal handle. Team underperformed. I would take Bonga over Bridges.
 
#97
How dare the Kings try to develop young talent this year instead of punting the ball so they could try to do the same thing next year
I’m not mocking the choice.... it’s their judgement the talent they had was sufficient. We shall see what the results are. But whatever they are (good or bad), don’t you agree they deserve them? It’s not the systems fault.
 
#99
By the way, it’s not like we haven’t been in this position before. When you do a histogram of the Kings pick lucky 7 comes up the most frequently in the Sacramento Kings era:
2013 Ben Mclemore
2011 Bismack Biyambo
1998 Jason Williams
1993 Bobby Hurley
1992 Walt Williams
1990 Lionel Simmons
 
We “shot ourselves in the foot” by choice. Vlade and Joeger made that decision to develop the current young players over trying to improve draft position to get a shiny new toy. Whether the team is better or worse off as a result of that decision remains to be seen next year. But whether the results are good or bad results; the team, the supportive local media, and the large number of vocal anti-tank fans certainly deserve the results.

If this team plays well next year and contends for the playoffs I will gladly come back and eat crow.
I guess we are holding to different definitions of "deserve". Is the current outcome a result of choices they made? Absolutely. Do they deserve a worse outcome than other teams just because they actually tried to (HORROR OF HORRORS) develop guys and win games? No, that's absolutely a flaw of the system. A team that tries to win games with their young players should not be penalized over an NBA, revenue-collecting team that sits its players and trots out G leaguers. What the Kings deserve is a break for trying to do things the right way and (albeit foolishly) holding to standards of a professional basketball team. The Suns and Grizzlies deserve a hefty fine and the last pick in the draft for what they did.
 
I guess we are holding to different definitions of "deserve". Is the current outcome a result of choices they made? Absolutely. Do they deserve a worse outcome than other teams just because they actually tried to (HORROR OF HORRORS) develop guys and win games? No, that's absolutely a flaw of the system. A team that tries to win games with their young players should not be penalized over an NBA, revenue-collecting team that sits its players and trots out G leaguers. What the Kings deserve is a break for trying to do things the right way and (albeit foolishly) holding to standards of a professional basketball team. The Suns and Grizzlies deserve a hefty fine and the last pick in the draft for what they did.
The system is what it is. I find it interesting the same fans who bemoan others about not just accepting the Kings strategy bemoan the system.

Kings management made a strategic choice. They are well aware of the system and odds of success at each draft slot. They choose to make a different choice and absolutely deserve to be held accountable or reap the praise for the results. If you don’t like the system go watch a different sport where a single superstar player can’t have such an outsized impact on the results.
 
Malik Monk got the Malik Monk treatment because he objectively sucked this year.
He's a raw rookie who got completely shafted. He finished the last 5 games averaging 20ppg. That say something. If the last 5 Charlotte games are somehow meaningless, would you say that so were the Kings last 5? Meaning all those stats are invalid somehow? no.
 
The system is what it is. I find it interesting the same fans who bemoan others about not just accepting the Kings strategy bemoan the system.

Kings management made a strategic choice. They are well aware of the system and odds of success at each draft slot. They choose to make a different choice and absolutely deserve to be held accountable or reap the praise for the results. If you don’t like the system go watch a different sport where a single superstar player can’t have such an outsized impact on the results.
That's not what I was arguing. I'm not saying blame the system if we don't turn out well. I'm saying that a team that plays hard and tries to win games should not be "rewarded" with. or should not merit (or as you/others have said - getting what they deserve) a bad pick. Just because the system is what it is doesn't mean I have to be happy about it.

"If you don’t like the system go watch a different sport where a single superstar player can’t have such an outsized impact on the results."
I'm not even going to comment on this statement.
 
That's not what I was arguing. I'm not saying blame the system if we don't turn out well. I'm saying that a team that plays hard and tries to win games should not be "rewarded" with. or should not merit (or as you/others have said - getting what they deserve) a bad pick. Just because the system is what it is doesn't mean I have to be happy about it.

"If you don’t like the system go watch a different sport where a single superstar player can’t have such an outsized impact on the results."
I'm not even going to comment on this statement.
Whether they should or not is irrelevant. That is how the system works and the model is well known. Phoenix and the Kings took two different paths. We shall see how it works out for them both.
 
.......

"If you don’t like the system go watch a different sport where a single superstar player can’t have such an outsized impact on the results."

I'm not even going to comment on this statement.
Umm, saying your not going to comment is actually making a comment. ;)

I do agree with your gist of not deserving. System stinks.
 
Bull fans seem to be pretty excited about winning the 6th pick slot and the prospect of drafting MPJ or Bamba/JJJ

That Jimmy Butler trade has worked out pretty nice for them
JJJ would be nice for them but Bamba or MPJ are probably the most risky picks in the top ten. MPJ could top out as a one-dimensional scorer that never passes and shoots you out of games (he already did so against Georgia). Bamba may never develop into the defender everyone wants him to be and rather focuses on offense. I have him at #11.
 
Whether they should or not is irrelevant. That is how the system works and the model is well known. Phoenix and the Kings took two different paths. We shall see how it works out for them both.
Well then don't pick on a point that I'm not making! And don't follow my post and say anti-tank fans and the organization "deserve" a bad pick if you refuse to operate on the same definitions.
 
Normally I pretty much agree with basically all of your analyses. Thats Why I'm curious: Why do you think of Miles Bridges as a disappointing pick? He would have been my target at #10 last year in what I believed to be a better top ten than this year. He also improved a lot this year. His pull-up shooting is more advanced and his Ast/To is better. It wouldnt shock me if we look back in a few years and he is better than Bamba or MPJ and more impactful on winning than Bagley/Ayton.
Not to mention he is a terrific fit for a Kings team that starves for wing talent. Joerger will love him and might trust him at the 4 in crunch time. A small line-up of Fox-Hield-Bogdan-Miles with Wcs or C might be a really potent closing/playoff line-up.
I mean, if you looked back to last year on my posts about him, I was all about the Bridges hype-train. I think a lot of him being a little "lower" on him in this draft is I didn't see the growth I wanted to see from him on the offensive end. I preach about it all the time about how much I love 3/4 flex players and I see him as a flawless fit into that role at the next level because he can space the floor and should excel at defending both the 3 and 4.

But for me, one of the biggest weakness I saw in his game as a Freshman was he took too many contested pull-ups or just settled for 3s, rather than using his size/speed/strength to get to the rim. It was a lot of the same this year too. He has the ability to do so and he just doesn't choose to do it enough. A .239 FTr, which is actually a bit down from his Freshman year, is concerning to me as who he tries to be as an offensive player. A guy with his physical gifts/talents should be close to double that in the college game honestly. The better AST/TO ratio is encouraging for sure and he did improve his ball-handling from his freshman season.

As I said though, I still like him as a prospect, but he's just clearly #9 on my board for us and I have the first 8 a good few notches ahead of him. He fits the profile of that coveted swing wing, but I have concerns if he tries to be old man Melo on offense in the NBA rather than a physical beast who can attack the rim when he wants. Might just me being overly nit-picky too since I've watched him a ton the last 2 years too.
 
I mean, if you looked back to last year on my posts about him, I was all about the Bridges hype-train. I think a lot of him being a little "lower" on him in this draft is I didn't see the growth I wanted to see from him on the offensive end. I preach about it all the time about how much I love 3/4 flex players and I see him as a flawless fit into that role at the next level because he can space the floor and should excel at defending both the 3 and 4.

But for me, one of the biggest weakness I saw in his game as a Freshman was he took too many contested pull-ups or just settled for 3s, rather than using his size/speed/strength to get to the rim. It was a lot of the same this year too. He has the ability to do so and he just doesn't choose to do it enough. A .239 FTr, which is actually a bit down from his Freshman year, is concerning to me as who he tries to be as an offensive player. A guy with his physical gifts/talents should be close to double that in the college game honestly. The better AST/TO ratio is encouraging for sure and he did improve his ball-handling from his freshman season.

As I said though, I still like him as a prospect, but he's just clearly #9 on my board for us and I have the first 8 a good few notches ahead of him. He fits the profile of that coveted swing wing, but I have concerns if he tries to be old man Melo on offense in the NBA rather than a physical beast who can attack the rim when he wants. Might just me being overly nit-picky too since I've watched him a ton the last 2 years too.
Nice breakdown -- I do wonder, though, how concerning the concerns you list really are. I mean, it would be one thing if he tried to get to the rim but didn't have the handles get there or strength to finish. But he has the ability, he just needs the habit. That, to me, is something that can be developed with a greater likelihood than if he had the opposite problem, provided he receives proper coaching.

Not quite the same situation, but folks were concerned that Tatum would also just be old man Melo, but Brad Stevens has put him on a path to something more. Could Coach Joerger do the same with Bridges here?
 
Let's say the BPA at 7 or 8 when we pick is Trae Young and Colin Sexton. I don't think that is a major issue. We could possibly decide to follow the Trail Blazers backcourt:

Damian Lillard is 6ft 3 and 195lbs
CJ McCollum is 6ft 3 and 190lbs

Currently Fox is listed at 6ft 3 and 175lbs. Trae Young is listed at 6ft 2 and 180lbs, while Colin Sexton is listed at 6ft 3 and 190lbs. With a bit of work on adding muscle there's no reason why Fox and Young can't add a bit more to their frame if the team felt that was needed. Otherwise stick with them as the new look backcourt. I'm not saying they will be as good as Lillard and McCollum, but trying to replicate an explosive scoring backcourt might be an option.

The alternative could be to look at teams that might want to trade for a point guard. Orlando spring to mind. If they decide to take Bamba, they might be willing to trade for Young or Sexton. The best option could be if they pick Bagley or Porter, that makes Isaac or Gordon expendable and could be an option in a trade. Let them send us their first round pick for next year. Alternatively see if we can trade back with the Clippers, maybe they'll want a point guard and will send us their two picks.

Granted the best scenario for us is if a big or a forward falls to us at 7 or 8, but a point guard is not really the end of the world.
I’d start Young/Bogdan so we keep size at SG all for of Young/Bogdan/Buddy/Fox would still play 30mpg though. Our bench would be lethal with Fox and Buddy on it.

I hope Vlade would take Young over Bridges and Carter. His potential is to good to pass up at 7 or 8
 
Nice breakdown -- I do wonder, though, how concerning the concerns you list really are. I mean, it would be one thing if he tried to get to the rim but didn't have the handles get there or strength to finish. But he has the ability, he just needs the habit. That, to me, is something that can be developed with a greater likelihood than if he had the opposite problem, provided he receives proper coaching.

Not quite the same situation, but folks were concerned that Tatum would also just be old man Melo, but Brad Stevens has put him on a path to something more. Could Coach Joerger do the same with Bridges here?
True, but Brad is challenging Pop as the best coach in the NBA. That dude is flat out amazing and legitimately is a franchise-altering talent from the sideline. Joerger just isn't the same level of coaching talent.

Point-well taken about him learning to play more aggressively, but I think that and the fact that his progress as a player was for all-intensive purposes pretty stagnant this season. What we liked and disliked about him last year pretty much holds true for this season. I don't know if that should be held against him, but it's enough to keep him at #9 for me.
 
I’d start Young/Bogdan so we keep size at SG all for of Young/Bogdan/Buddy/Fox would still play 30mpg though. Our bench would be lethal with Fox and Buddy on it.

I hope Vlade would take Young over Bridges and Carter. His potential is to good to pass up at 7 or 8
I'm just out on Trae Young. Talented offensive player for sure, but I just don't see how he becomes a passable defensive player at the next level. On the shorter side already, small wing-span and (if I'm being generous) average athleticism. PG just isn't the spot in the NBA where you can afford to be a limited athlete and/or limited size anymore.

Trying to recreate the next Steph is just fool's errand. I'd let other teams go ahead and make that mistake.
 
The problem is when you look at the past 30 years smart teams tend to avoid the 6,7,8 picks. Their is about a -70 percent correlation between how many times you pick 6,7,8 over the past 30 years and your average win total.

The Kings with this latest year will have picked 6,7,8 a total of 11 times in the past 30 years. The next closest team to that level of stupidity is the LA Clippers at 8 times.
 
The problem is when you look at the past 30 years smart teams tend to avoid the 6,7,8 picks. Their is about a -70 percent correlation between how many times you pick 6,7,8 over the past 30 years and your average win total.

The Kings with this latest year will have picked 6,7,8 a total of 11 times in the past 30 years. The next closest team to that level of stupidity is the LA Clippers at 8 times.
we're very good at being mediocre. small victories are celebrated.

we are consistent which is a positive
 
#7 is a great position for the Kings to sit based on their current roster and talent levels. As much as it is exciting for the fans now a #1 or high pick isn’t going to instantly turn this franchise around. What the Kings need are long-term prospects with the ceiling to become Allstars. They have one in Fox but that's it. As much as I love the scoring power of both Buddy and Bogdan they don't have the same ceiling so unfortunately unless the 'i'd be happy with' rosters you guys keep posting have a different number one scoring option or you're looking at either of these guys as a trade piece for a future acquisition the Kings are never going to be a playoff team.

The guys in this draft that could fall to #7 and have that ceiling are Michael Porter and Mikal Bridges period. Both these guys could not only be transcendent talents but they both can shoot, rebound and most importantly defend. I'm happy for the other teams to make mistakes and take a Bagley who can't defend, hence why Duke had to zone for the majority of the year, or a Mo Bamba who has terrible basketball IQ and couldn't get them past Nevada in the second round. Trae Young will hit shots and make the transition to the NBA but is overrated and will never be more than Frank Mason, D'Vonte Graham, Grayson Allen or Brunson which you can and have picked up for next to nothing in the 2nd round.

If Porter or Bridges were no longer on offer I'd trade down and get Omari Spellman if he's in the draft still as that kid is going to be something special but more than likely he returns to Villanova and goes Top 5 the following year. Kings won't get a shot at him next year so I believe it's worth rolling the dice now.

Best case scenario Giles comes into the side after a year of training and development giving him an edge over other rookies as Ben Simmons had.

With the selection of Porter/Bridges, this gives us a future potential Allstar at the PG, Wing and Power Forward/Centre.

The Kings need to remain young and pick up free agents and trades from underplayed and expiring rookie contracts to build the roster around Fox/Giles/Porter. I'd much rather watch and play on a side that that took a chance on a Looney, Okafor or Hezonja to round out their rotations instead of a Carter and Cooley.

75% of Z-Bo's FGA need to go to the younger players next season. There is no way Kings sign any of their existing older players again in 2019 so why persist with it now. Show Sacramento as a destination for young players to play minutes and get shots up on a young side and allow the team to build as one. Once the team improve add an older specific piece like the 76ers did with Reddick on a one year contract as a push to the playoffs and pick up more experience if the Kings can get on the bubble like 76ers did with Belinelli and Ilyasova.

Stay young and pick a player based on their ceiling instead of what's considered 'the next best player' and we'll be a 48 win team within the next three seasons.
 
If the Kings drop to 8, which so many of you are fearing, that means one of the teams that tanked even less than we did jumped up to a top 3... which means we'd have been better off with an extra meaningless win or two.

While I'd love Doncic or Ayton if we somehow win the lottery, I really do think in the modern game most of the guys in the 3-10 range are going to succeed or fail based on what team drafts them and how they are developed rather than on pure talent alone.
right. it's been proven idk how many times now lol didn't Curry drop to 7? yea ....
 
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