Its Midseason: The Numbers Thread

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
10 Sets of Stats To Chew On

And so, belatedly really, it has finally come time for the annual stat thread fun. I have done these as early as 10 games into the season in some past years -- which despite complaints about accuracy actually seemed to be an adequate sample size to see most major trends. But 41 games...well we are who we are at this point, so time to break it down.

If stats make your eyes roll up in your head, leave now while you still can. You have been warned.

1) The Overview: How Do We Suck, Let Us Count the Ways
Points For: 98.56 (NBA Rank: 14th)
Points Opp: 107.36 (NBA Rank: 29th)
Points Diff: -8.80 (NBA Rank: 30th)
Hm Shooting %: .446 (NBA Rank: 22nd)
Opp Shooting%: .475 (NBA Rank: 28th)
3pt Shooting %: .334 (NBA Rank: 25th)
Opp 3pt Shoot %: .412 (NBA Rank: 30th)
FT Shooting %: .800 (NBA Rank: 7th)
Assists/Game: 20.02 (NBA Rank: 22nd)
Reb Differential: -3.34 (NBA Rank: 28th)
Blocks Per Game: 4.02 (NBA Rank: 27th)
Steals Per Game: 6.70 (NBA Rank: 25th)
TOs Per Game: 15.82 (NBA Rank: 27th)


2)Record to reach 48 wins and #8
As it has been for most of the season, Utah and Dallas are currently tied for the #8 seed, winning 58.5% of their games, a 48 win pace. Following our rousing franchise worst 10-31 first half of the season, we can still catch those teams and tie for the #8 seed...by going 38-3 in the second half of the season. To get to .500 (41-41) its merely 31-10. To match last season's 38 wins, 28-13.


3) Point Differential
We have the single worst point differential in the entire NBA at -8.80, and its not even close. The second worst team is the Clippers who are outscored by a smidge over 7 a game, we are outscored by almost 9 a game. That alone makes a strong arguent that we might have been the worst basketball team in the NBA during the first half of the season, or at the very least the least competitive. Welcome to the bad ole days.


4) Rebounding
Remember that oh so brief week or so at the beginning of the season when it looked like we might finally have resolved a rebounding situation that has been disastrous basically every season since Bonzi left and could no longer cover for our frontcourt weakness? Well, its ok if you don't. I barely do myself. Nonethless the fact of the matter is we outrebounded 7 of our first 11 opponents. And have only outrebounded 9 of the past 31. Kind of makes you want to vomit in your mouth a little to see the Kings nightly destroyed in every one of the hard work/toughness categories.

Individually:
Miller 12.5 reb/48 (#43 of 84 Cs)
Hawes 11.8 reb/48 (#52 of 84 Cs)
---------------------------------------
Williams 13.1 reb/48 (#21 of 87 PFs)
Thompson 13.0 reb/48 (#22 of 87 PFs)
Thomas 12.7 reb/48 (#25 of 87 PFs)
Moore 9.8 reb/48 (#61 of 87 PFs)
---------------------------------------
Greene 6.2 reb/48 (#62 of 81 SFs)
Cisco 5.7 reb/48 (#65 of 81 SFs)
Salmons 5.1 reb/48 (#72 of 81 SFs)
---------------------------------------
Douby 5.2 reb/48 (#39 of 82 OGs)
Martin 4.0 reb/48 (#67 of 82 OGs)
---------------------------------------
Jackson 6.5 reb/48 (#10 of 80 PGs)
Udrih 4.5 reb/48 (#47 of 80 PGs)
Brown 2.8 reb/48 (#76 of 80 PGs)

Which interestingly enough suggests that our centers are barely adequate, our PFs other than the man our two idiot coaches have been fascinated by as a starter are actually pretty good, and the nightly board battle has really been lost more by our little people. Salmons is a natural OG and one of the worst rebounding SFs in the league. Kevin is nearly as one dimensional at OG, Cisco hasn't been much better this year, and in general the only little guy who has not been an active liability on the boards this season is a 35 year old who would have to wear heels to see 6'1", but who at least still has guts.


5) Defense
Defensively obviously there has been a complete collapse, and we are arguably the worst defensive team in the league. We allow the second most points in the league at 107.4ppg, and only the chuck and duck smallballers in Golden State allow more. We are 3rd worst in opponent shooting percentage (.475), and if you want to know how critical a statistic that is, here are bottom 7 teams: Memphis, New York, Washington, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Golden State, and Minnesota. In other words a who's who of suck. We remain THE worst team in the league at stopping opponent 3pt shooters -- opponents have shot an insane 41.2% from 3pt land against us. For comparison, Peja Stojakovic's career 3pt% is 40.5%. We have turned every player in the NBA into Peja by simply refusing to guard them.

A few years back we canned a coach after 8 straight playoff appearances with the excuse that he wasn't coaching enough defense for our tastes. Here are the defensive stats for every year in the last decade, with points allowed, opponent FG%, and opponent 3pt%. You can figure out what the --- line means.

YEAR__PtsAll_Fg%_3pt%
'98-'99 100.6 .446 .???
'99-'00 102.0 .452 .353
'00-'01 95.9 .452 .355
'01-'02 97.0 .440 .337
'02-'03 95.2 .420 .320
'03-'04 97.8 .454 .339
'04-'05 101.6 .459 .357
'05-'06 97.3 .454 .351
------------------------
'06-'07 103.1 .472 .365
'07-'08 104.8 .466 .370
'08-'09 107.4 .475 .412

But at least we continue to set records, recently adding most points allowed over a three game stretch (Orlando, Golden State, Milwaulkee = 401pts allowed :eek:) to our glittering resume of worst first half record in franchise history, most 3pters allowed etc. etc.


6) Steals
I'm thinking that whole get rid of Artest and we get better school of thought is largely defunct at this point anyway, but one place where the effect is immediate and obvious is in steals. We were top 5 last year led by one of the league's best thiefs, and this year the numbers have tumbeled all the way down to 25th in the league at 6.70 a game eliminating one of the few areas of strength we had.


7) Blocks
And you wonder why I was an early advocate fo the Thabeet GambitTM? Despite all the hullabaloo about Spencer showing he could actually block a shot, we are still miserable (4.02 = 27th in the league). Brad (0.6), Mikki (0.4) and unfortuntely Jason (0.6) are all miserable, while Spencer has fallen off, and even at his peak was not a dominant shotblocker. He was blocking them at such a pace because people didn't respect him. He can't be the guy, the only guy. But now if you added a major shotblocker to lead the team and let Spencer become your #2 guy....you might finally begin to have respectable presence inside again. Something that has been virtually impossible to acheive with Brad Miller and the 7 dwarves up front the past 4 years.


8) Turnovers
Hey, we're awful at this too (15.8, 27th in the league), but I don't think Natt should sweat it -- Boston is 28th. And besides we are only 2-11 in games where we win the turnover battle. Maybe the key is to have MORE turnovers, not less.


9) 3pt Shooting
Remains a mystery, especially since Kevin andJohn take most of our threes (8.4 a game between them) and both are above their career percentages. But Cisco (31.9%), Beno (24.3%) BJax (27.5%), Brown (33.8%) and Donte (31.6%) have all atruggled and that's been enough. Beno and Cisco have especially fallen off form last year and deprived us of those supplemental shooters. Cisco shot 39.1% last year, and Beno 38.7%. Of course the scary thing is that those performances last year were career highs for both those guys, so maybe they are merely returning to form.


10) What We Do Well
Shoot FTs! Woohoo!!

Yay -- we are the fat guy in the park who goes out by himself to shoot 100 standstill jumpers a day. Can't actually play basketball. But standing in one place with his feet set, he's pretty accurate. Is very exciting to watch too let me tell you. Especially when he gets there by flopping. Makes it just that much more special.
 
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6) Steals
I'm thinking that whole get rid of Artest and we get better school of thought is largely defunct at this point anyway, but one place where the effect is immediate and obvious is in steals. We were top 5 last year led by one of the league's best thiefs, and this year the numbers have tumbeled all the way down to 25th in the league at 6.70 a game eliminating one of the few areas of strength we had.

We are better without Artest, just not short term.
 
10 Sets of Stats To Chew On


1) The Overview: How Do We Suck, Let Us Count the Ways
Points For: 98.56 (NBA Rank: 14th)
Points Opp: 107.36 (NBA Rank: 29th)
Points Diff: -8.80 (NBA Rank: 30th)
Hm Shooting %: .446 (NBA Rank: 22nd)
Opp Shooting%: .475 (NBA Rank: 28th)
3pt Shooting %: .334 (NBA Rank: 25th)
Opp 3pt Shoot %: .412 (NBA Rank: 30th)
FT Shooting %: .800 (NBA Rank: 7th)
Assists/Game: 20.02 (NBA Rank: 22nd)
Reb Differential: -3.34 (NBA Rank: 28th)
Blocks Per Game: 4.02 (NBA Rank: 27th)
Steals Per Game: 6.70 (NBA Rank: 25th)
TOs Per Game: 15.82 (NBA Rank: 27th)


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Nice work. So, how do we fix it. It wasn't all caused by one problem, so there's not going to be one solution. And, some solutions may fix more then one symtom, so what's the best 1st step.

1. Defensive minded coach
2. Low post defensive player
3. Better defensive players at all positions
4. Strong defensive player at PG.(to take pressure off bigs)
5. Different defensive scheme
6. Different offensive scheme
7. Other
 
Nice work. So, how do we fix it. It wasn't all caused by one problem, so there's not going to be one solution. And, some solutions may fix more then one symtom, so what's the best 1st step.

1. Defensive minded coach
2. Low post defensive player
3. Better defensive players at all positions
4. Strong defensive player at PG.(to take pressure off bigs)
5. Different defensive scheme
6. Different offensive scheme
7. Other

You forgot the "all of the above" option. ;)
 
1. Defensive minded coach
I think that's more of a cliche than a real thing anymore. Is Dallas any better defensively with Rick Carlisle than they were with Avery Johnson?

I know that a really, really good coach can help his team be better defensively, but you have to have good defensive players on the floor.
 
Well.......by god, at least we're consistant. Something to be said for that. Obviously this is not something thats going to be fixed overnight, unless of course we trade teams with the Spurs or the Magic etc. There's no denying that statisticly were a bad team. We have a record to prove it. Whats befuddling, is that on paper we should be better than we are. A championship team? No. But certainly better.

Better rebounding would help, especially on the defensive end. More assists would help. Give me 25 team assists a night and I'll guarantee you a lot more wins. Better perimiter defense would help. God, please give me a Doug Christie type of player. I suspect that Martin will never be a good defender. Nor will Beno. Salmons is probably gone, so I don't see it getting any better soon. Oh well, I can dream.
 
Sports Illustrated did some mid-season grades. Here's what Aschburner had to say about the Kings:

Sacramento Kings: The way the Kings have been hemorrhaging points -- they've given up an average of 125.8 in the last five games, including a triple-overtime victory against Golden State -- the Bucks, Raptors and Cavs are drooling over their upcoming contests. Everyone is waiting for Brad Miller to be traded and for Beno Udrih to feel pushed by someone, anyone, at the point guard spot. Grade: D+

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/steve_aschburner/01/22/midseason.grades/1.html
 
That's a fantastic post. A great summary of the year so far. A couple of thoughts -

The first thing I look at is rebounding because as you imply that's the hustle/toughness stat. The rebounding was much better at the beginning of the year when Miller wasn't playing and Hawes was starting. If I recall, Thompson was also playing a lot more at that time (mid-season he got lost). Everybody can debate how good the Hawes-Thompson tandem is defensively, but until we see a stretch of at least 20 games with those guys playing consistent minutes together, we are not even going to have little more than a glimmer of their future defensive/rebounding potential. I totally agree with you on Salmons - he's not a three. He can't rebound well enough and he can't help defend well enough to be a three. He hurts us in both of those areas which we need oh so much help. He's a lousy fit for this team. Connecting the dots, I'd really like to see the frontcourt lineup of Hawes, Thompson and Garcia. Garcia can rebound better and help defend better than Salmons, which overall is more important than Salmon's on the ball defense.

The point differential has got to just kill Reynolds because Reynolds always used to bring it up as the most significant stat in the league to determine who was good or not. Needless to say (but I will) that Reynolds hasn't brought that stat up lately.:p It tell us that we are the worst in the league, and what's more the 2nd worse team, the Clipps, have a ton of guys injured right now, whereas we are totally healthy.

Lastly, the offense. The system is terrible in terms of exploiting the strengths of its players. Anytime I see Martin dribbling around past the three point line trying to get a shot for himself it just reminds me how bad a system it is.
 
Damn that is depressing :( it seems like yesterday we were at the top of everything.. wow
 
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Damn that is depressing :( it seems like yesterday we were at the top of everything.. wow

Don't worry, this epic level of suckitude can't last. To put it into historical perspective:

We're currently at 22.2% for the season.

The worst two years of the "Welcome to hell" era
1989-90: 28.0%
1987-88: 29.3%

The two worst years in franchise history:
1959-60: 25.3%
1958-59: 26.4%

Every other year we won over 30% of our games.

It can only get better.
 
Well, the NBA is a closed system of sorts. That is, there are only a certain number of wins to go around. Thus, for some teams to be really good, other teams have to be really bad. For some teams to be really good for a long time, other teams have to be really bad for a long time. Maybe the good years were a fluke? We haven't won a championship since 1951, maybe it's just our place to be bad.

Ugh, forgive the pessimism, I've been disappointed with the way things have been going lately (more then just basketball). Hopefully, in a few years, things will be looking up for the Kings and everyone else.
 
Don't worry, this epic level of suckitude can't last. To put it into historical perspective:

We're currently at 22.2% for the season.

The worst two years of the "Welcome to hell" era
1989-90: 28.0%
1987-88: 29.3%

The two worst years in franchise history:
1959-60: 25.3%
1958-59: 26.4%

Every other year we won over 30% of our games.

It can only get better.

History means almost nothing when it comes to current teams.

There is no reason to think things can get better besides the fact that things can't get much worse. The fact that previous teams have won 30% only shows how bad this year is, nothing more.
 
History means almost nothing when it comes to current teams.

There is no reason to think things can get better besides the fact that things can't get much worse. The fact that previous teams have won 30% only shows how bad this year is, nothing more.


Well, if nothing else I do think it shows that it is hard to sustain that level of sucktitude for extended periods.

The key of course is that the draft is the great renewer in the NBA. More than any other sport, high draft picks produce an overwhelming number of the most talented players, and more than any other sport a highly talented player can turn his team's fortunes around (reasons being only 5 players per side, small court for the size of the players, all players play both offense and defense (unlike football), no rules on who gets to have the ball so you can force it to your main player (unlike baseball), no playing time limitations so he can play almost the whole game (unlike hockey)). So in the NBA if you stay bad long enough, you will almost always end up picking up a player or players to improve things, at least a little. Or those valuable assets (the high picks) will allow you to acquire players to turn things (like we did in trading our #3 pick for Mitch Richmond back in the day, or Boston did in trading its #5 to get Ray Allen).

The difficulty is that this is looking to be a weak draft, and so unfortunately our odds of getting an immediate bounce are not what they would be if this was a LeBron/Melo/Bosh/Wade draft.

One note about our record now vs. our record then: I have long contended that we were consistently WORSE than our records back in those bad old days showed. The x-factor was that we had an insane home court advantage for such a terrible team. Every year we would be just about the worst road team in the NBA (for 8 straight seasons from '86-'87 to '93-'94 we never broke double figures in road wins), indicating that we were right down there as maybe just about the worst team in the NBA, but the homecourt advantage -- having a sold out arena no matter how terrible we got -- would gift us 5-10 homecourt wins a year. And so we might have been the worst team, or close to it, but rarely cratered out with a worst team's record. The home crowd just would not allow it. Now, alas, that advantage has largely evaporated, so to whatever degree we are terrible now, its all showing up in the record sheet (which may actually help us to speed this rebuild -- those great old home crowds ironically may have been abetting their team's sucking by causing them to pick later in the draft).
 
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The key of course is that the draft is the great renewer in the NBA. More than any other sport, high draft picks produce an overwhelming number of the most talented players, and more than any other sport a highly talented player can turn his team's fortunes around (reasons being only 5 players per side, small court for the size of the players, all players play both offense and defense).
Great point, Brick. How many QB's drafted in the high rounds, expected to turn around a franchise, turn out to be total busts - Gino Torreta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, etc - the list goes on and on. Players who leave early and are never heard from again. And in baseball, How many high draft picks make it past A ball in the minors? Not too many. They blow their wads too early. The ones who are successful in baseball seem to develop out of obscurity or off the radar, are drafted low, and develop their latent potential in the minors.

So many NBA first-rounders make an impact for their team right off the bat - Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, LeBron, Tim Duncan, Hakeem, Dwayne Wade, Shaq, Kobe, MJ, etc.
 
One note about our record now vs. our record then: I have long contended that we were consistently WORSE than our records back in those bad old days showed. The x-factor was that we had an insane home court advantage for such a terrible team. Every year we would be just about the worst road team in the NBA (for 8 straight seasons from '86-'87 to '93-'94 we never broke double figures in road wins), indicating that we were right down there as maybe just about the worst team in the NBA, but the homecourt advantage -- having a sold out arena no matter how terrible we got -- would gift us 5-10 homecourt wins a year. And so we might have been the worst team, or close to it, but rarely cratered out with a worst team's record. The home crowd just would not allow it. Now, alas, that advantage has largely evaporated, so to whatever degree we are terrible now, its all showing up in the record sheet (which may actually help us to speed this rebuild -- those great old home crowds ironically may have been abetting their team's sucking by causing them to pick later in the draft).

Totally agree. And by the same token, our draft slot has been lower than it should have, given the actual strength of the team. "Fortunately" we don't have that problem this year.
 
10 Sets of Stats To Chew On


2)Record to reach 48 wins and #8
As it has been for most of the season, Utah and Dallas are currently tied for the #8 seed, winning 58.5% of their games, a 48 win pace. Following our rousing franchise worst 10-31 first half of the season, we can still catch those teams and tie for the #8 seed...by going 38-3 in the second half of the season. To get to .500 (41-41) its merely 31-10. To match last season's 38 wins, 28-13.

Forget all the rest of the stats. If Coach Natt with help from Coachie can achieve 38 wins with 28 more wins, then Coach of the Year is in his grasp. Meaning he would have had to accomplish improvements in all the major stat categories.

Bucks game was one of their best road games this year. Raptors game started OK for 2 Q but the ugly 3rd reared its head again. Home games become the key now. Too bad there are only 19 home games remaining. 9 road wins not very practical at this point. But stranger things have happened. With Marion and better defense in the middle anything is possible.
 
That's a fantastic post. A great summary of the year so far. A couple of thoughts -

The first thing I look at is rebounding because as you imply that's the hustle/toughness stat. The rebounding was much better at the beginning of the year when Miller wasn't playing and Hawes was starting. If I recall, Thompson was also playing a lot more at that time (mid-season he got lost). Everybody can debate how good the Hawes-Thompson tandem is defensively, but until we see a stretch of at least 20 games with those guys playing consistent minutes together, we are not even going to have little more than a glimmer of their future defensive/rebounding potential. I totally agree with you on Salmons - he's not a three. He can't rebound well enough and he can't help defend well enough to be a three. He hurts us in both of those areas which we need oh so much help. He's a lousy fit for this team. Connecting the dots, I'd really like to see the frontcourt lineup of Hawes, Thompson and Garcia. Garcia can rebound better and help defend better than Salmons, which overall is more important than Salmon's on the ball defense.

The point differential has got to just kill Reynolds because Reynolds always used to bring it up as the most significant stat in the league to determine who was good or not. Needless to say (but I will) that Reynolds hasn't brought that stat up lately.:p It tell us that we are the worst in the league, and what's more the 2nd worse team, the Clipps, have a ton of guys injured right now, whereas we are totally healthy.

Lastly, the offense. The system is terrible in terms of exploiting the strengths of its players. Anytime I see Martin dribbling around past the three point line trying to get a shot for himself it just reminds me how bad a system it is.

I don't believe our rebounding was better because Hawes & JT were playing. I think it was because we played JT at the 3, with Hawes & Miller. Our rpg aver. in Nov. was actually our worst month. The system we play hurts our offensive rebounds because our center who should be our best rebounder is 17ft away from the basket.

But, as far as Martin dribbling, that's Martin fault. He's not a good enough ball handler to be doing that, and should be passing instead. He needs to catch the ball on the move and dribble penetrate or catch & shoot.

As far as Cisco's rebounding vs Salmons, I think your way off there. Cisco's barely beating Beno in rpg, and is even behind Martin. Half the time when Cisco goes to the basket he ends up on the floor, so he's not even good at rebounding his own misses. And, since Martin's return Salmons has been one of our best rebounders. In Jan. he's aver. 5.2rpg vs 3.3rpg in Dec.
 
Forget all the rest of the stats. If Coach Natt with help from Coachie can achieve 38 wins with 28 more wins, then Coach of the Year is in his grasp. Meaning he would have had to accomplish improvements in all the major stat categories.

Bucks game was one of their best road games this year. Raptors game started OK for 2 Q but the ugly 3rd reared its head again. Home games become the key now. Too bad there are only 19 home games remaining. 9 road wins not very practical at this point. But stranger things have happened. With Marion and better defense in the middle anything is possible.


Not that.

As of two days from now (after the Cleveland/Boston losses drop us to 10-37) in order to reach 38 wins this team would have to go 28-7 over its last 35 games. Not only is that basically impossible, its nothing to even root for either.

We've got a good shot to win fewer than 25, and that's what we should be actively rooting for at this point. The season is utterly lost, its been miserable, for god's sakes let's not waste it on pointless fake hustle charges. Take our lumps, get our reward (high pick + maybe cap space if we can pull the right kind of trade), turn over half the roster + the coaching staff this summer, and come back next near a brand new entity. Nobody on this board should have any desire for any more continuity at this point. We need a completely fresh start to wash all this ick away.
 
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Not that.

As of two days from now (after the Cleveland/Boston losses drop us to 10-37) in order to reach 38 wins this team would have to go 28-7 over its last 35 games. Not only is that basically impossible, its nothing to even root for either.

We've got a good shot to win fewer than 25, and that's what we should be actively rooting for at this point. The season is utterly lost, its been miserable, for god's sakes let's not waste it on pointless fake hustle charges. Take our lumps, get our reward (high pick + maybe cap space if we can pull the right kind of trade), turn over half the roster + the coaching staff this summer, and come back next near a brand new entity. Nobody on this board should have any desire for any more continuity at this point. We need a completely fresh start to wash all this ick away.

Right. And at this point, we're not talking about tanking. If we just keep doing what we've been doing through the first half, we're on pace for 20-25 wins. And it's not because we're putting the worst players on the floor, or because we're letting our best player sit out the rest of the season (like the '07 Celtics did with Pierce). It's because we truly do suck. We are a 30 win team, at best, and with the injuries and the coaching change, subtract ten from that, and you have a team on pace to win 20 games.

And I'm not sad about it, either. A couple seasons ago, it was depressing to see our eight year playoff streak die, but now, we've got to get on with it. Can't keep crying about the ex-girlfriend we let get away. Time to do what we have to do to rebuild the team.
 
I don't believe our rebounding was better because Hawes & JT were playing. I think it was because we played JT at the 3, with Hawes & Miller. Our rpg aver. in Nov. was actually our worst month. The system we play hurts our offensive rebounds because our center who should be our best rebounder is 17ft away from the basket.

But, as far as Martin dribbling, that's Martin fault. He's not a good enough ball handler to be doing that, and should be passing instead. He needs to catch the ball on the move and dribble penetrate or catch & shoot.

As far as Cisco's rebounding vs Salmons, I think your way off there. Cisco's barely beating Beno in rpg, and is even behind Martin. Half the time when Cisco goes to the basket he ends up on the floor, so he's not even good at rebounding his own misses. And, since Martin's return Salmons has been one of our best rebounders. In Jan. he's aver. 5.2rpg vs 3.3rpg in Dec.

At the very beginning of the year, Thompson was playing the pf; after Martin got injured they switched him to the three. Partly, it's the system, but in large measure it's the players that dictate the system. If the coaches were comfortable that Hawes & Thompson could consistently score in the low post, then you would definitely see more low post offense.

Martin needs to have more plays set up for him, more screens. He has virtually none of that right now because it's not politically correct in the world of Martin-Salmons-Natt.

The rpg stat doesn't mean much; it's rpm that I'd be looking at for Cisco and Salmons. Also, Cisco is a better help defender than Salmons, which is desperately needed at the three position.
 
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