I wouldn't be shocked if we won only 30 games this year (despite what a lot of people think here). However, I don't agree with a lot of Hollinger's reasons for why he thinks we will only win 30 games.
We had the 16th best record last year but we were 21st in NetRTG which tends to mean our record was better than what is expected, so there could be some natural "regression" with that alone.
Then there is always the question if players like Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Barnes, Giles, & Bagley even get better.
- Does Fox's 3PT% regress? Does he have the killer instinct when his team needs him to take over?
- Has Buddy reached his peak?
- Is Bogdanovic going to have tired legs? Can Bogdanovic produce on the Kings like he does in FIBA?
- Will Barnes stay happy in his role or will he start shooting more like he did in Dallas?
- Does Giles get his fouling & turnovers down? Does he have an injury setback?
- Does Bagley improve his defense? Does Bagley improve his shooting? Does Bagley learn how to box out? Does Bagley learn how to be a lob threat in the pick & roll?
Then you add in that the West got better with Leonard/Bogdanovic/Russell changing conferences (with Durant going the other way) , LeBron/Porzingis being healthy again (Thompson is hurt), Conley/Davis being rested/not caring when they're on the floor, and the #1 pick Zion being added to a Western team.
Lastly (and maybe the most important), we just had a coaching change. That is a new offense and new defensive schemes they are going to have to learn. It could take time, and during that time, we could be losing more than some of you are expecting.
I don't think 30 wins is completely out of range for us, but again, I don't think Hollinger's reason make much sense. The reasons above is what could cause a 30 win season. Personally, I have us winning ~36 games and missing the playoffs. God knows I hope I'm wrong and we make the playoffs. I'd love to be in our new arena for a playoff game.