Could this be the Kings plan?

[bajaden]

While I don't think we will go with a 15 man roster I can certainly get on board the starting 5 of

Ayton
Giles
Hezonja
Bogdanovic
Fox

in a couple of years time.

I still think that there is a reasonable chance that WCS gets shipped out if Kings draft Ayton and Giles really is as advertised. In that case, I can definitely see us bringing back Kosta as a veteran mentor to Ayton who can start until we bring Ayton along slowly (similar to what we did with Hill and Fox this season)

I highly doubt Caboclo will be back next year and I personally would love Temple back but I am not sure that will happen especially with Shumpert unlikely to opt out of his deal.

The Kings are much higher on Willie, than people on this forum might think. Joerger love his defense and is encouraged by his improvement on the offensive side of the ball. So much so that he's given Willie a bit of a green light on offense. For Willie to be traded, it would have to be an offer that the Kings can't refuse. Trust me, many teams around the league have inquired about Willie. Even though many on this forum are blind to what Willie does on the floor defensively, the rest of the league isn't.

 

[ESP47]

True, but his breakout has come while starting at PF. I posted his season stats in this thread earlier on and they do show that on the offensive end he's doing well at PF. Is it his best position? Maybe if you value offense over defense and want him playing the position where he is most efficient. But is it ideal to start him there? Probably not if you value defense and want your team to play tough on that end to try and restrict teams to 100 points or less and go against the grain.

Would I sign him? Not as a starter because i would be concerned about his viability starting at PF long term. But I would consider signing him to come off the bench and start games where there is a favorable matchup at PF. Though it would have to be at a team friendly price.

Yes, I appreciated your breakdown of his performance by position, and I wonder why other posters seem to just blow by those numbers and assume we should acquire Hezonja to play SF, when we should stop and think about why he finally seemed to break out playing at PF. I haven't watched the Magic much this season, so I'd be curious to hear from those who have.

Some are saying the team should look into Hezonja only if the team doesn't land a SF, but I'll admit to being intrigued by a "positionless" lineup of Fox/Bogi/Doncic and WCS (with his switching on D) or Giles (with his alleged passing prowess) at the 5.

In terms of Hezonja being "bullied" by other PFs -- in the Western conference (I'm not going to get too worked up about matchups we'll see at most twice), it's mostly, who, Aldridge, Millsap and Davis? And that's assuming the Pelicans re-sign Boogie or get another center to keep Davis at PF.

Going from the stats Mike posted (thank you btw), Hezonja only has 2 starts at SF and came off the bench at SF in 18 games but he only averaged 8min a game. That's 710 min at PF vs. 204 min at SF. I still think it's too much of a small sample size, especially for a guy who may potentially be coming into his own the last couple weeks....and....a guy that has been inconsistent to boot.

There's a few things we have to ponder. Is he suddenly scoring 20pts a game every other night because he's just now figuring out the game of basketball? Is it because he has an offensive advantage at PF? Does the defensive speed at SF over match him? Are his SF stats not as good due to small sample size as well as the fact that they came earlier in the year when he wasn't playing well?

I'm no Magic expert but I have a feeling he's been playing more PF than SF lately because one, Aaron Gordon has been injured and two, because Fournier and Simmons take up the majority of the minutes at SF. I think he's more than likely playing there by committee but it's been working for him statistically speaking.

Me personally, if Fournier and Simmons got hurt and Hezonja was playing 30min a night at SF, I believe he would be playing just as well as he has been except he would be able to defend better because he would have less massive mismatches. In addition to Davis, Aldridge, and Millsap, he would have a lot of trouble guarding Randle, Green, Gibson and Favors. That's 6 guys in the West alone that would have a big advantage on him. Take all the guys in the east into account and add them all up and that's a lot of games where we have a very unfavorable match up locked in at PF every other night. I'd rather him play SF where he's going to have unfavorable matchups anyway against KD, Giannis, George etc but at least we can maybe have a guy at PF like Giles or a Jaren Jackson Jr that can cover the strong 4s as well as the stretch 4s.

 

[bajaden]

True, but his breakout has come while starting at PF. I posted his season stats in this thread earlier on and they do show that on the offensive end he's doing well at PF. Is it his best position? Maybe if you value offense over defense and want him playing the position where he is most efficient. But is it ideal to start him there? Probably not if you value defense and want your team to play tough on that end to try and restrict teams to 100 points or less and go against the grain.

Would I sign him? Not as a starter because i would be concerned about his viability starting at PF long term. But I would consider signing him to come off the bench and start games where there is a favorable matchup at PF. Though it would have to be at a team friendly price.

If that's your criteria for signing him, then I wouldn't sign him. The Kings aren't in a position to be wasting money on a bandaid player. If you sign Hezonja, its to battle it out with Jackson for the starting job at SF. I'm not that much of a stats guy as far as using them to make decisions on a player. I certainly don't discard them. I take them into consideration, but only to verify what my eye's have been telling me. I've watched Hezonja play, and the dude is a SF, who is quick enough to match up with some SG's in the league.

If I'm signing him, it's to fill the SF spot, or I'm not signing him. Period! As someone pointed out, he can play PF if we have this and if we have that. You don't sign a player for a position where you have to have another player cover for his deficiencies.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Going from the stats Mike posted (thank you btw), Hezonja only has 2 starts at SF and came off the bench at SF in 18 games but he only averaged 8min a game. That's 710 min at PF vs. 204 min at SF. I still think it's too much of a small sample size, especially for a guy who may potentially be coming into his own the last couple weeks....and....a guy that has been inconsistent to boot.

There's a few things we have to ponder. Is he suddenly scoring 20pts a game every other night because he's just now figuring out the game of basketball? Is it because he has an offensive advantage at PF? Does the defensive speed at SF over match him? Are his SF stats not as good due to small sample size as well as the fact that they came earlier in the year when he wasn't playing well?

I'm no Magic expert but I have a feeling he's been playing more PF than SF lately because one, Aaron Gordon has been injured and two, because Fournier and Simmons take up the majority of the minutes at SF. I think he's more than likely playing there by committee but it's been working for him statistically speaking.

Me personally, if Fournier and Simmons got hurt and Hezonja was playing 30min a night at SF, I believe he would be playing just as well as he has been except he would be able to defend better because he would have less massive mismatches. In addition to Davis, Aldridge, and Millsap, he would have a lot of trouble guarding Randle, Green, Gibson and Favors. That's 6 guys in the West alone that would have a big advantage on him. Take all the guys in the east into account and add them all up and that's a lot of games where we have a very unfavorable match up locked in at PF every other night. I'd rather him play SF where he's going to have unfavorable matchups anyway against KD, Giannis, George etc but at least we can maybe have a guy at PF like Giles or a Jaren Jackson Jr that can cover the strong 4s as well as the stretch 4s.

Yeah, that's the conundrum (at least to me, without having watched the Magic play much). Hezonja is flourishing without Gordon, but is that because he's able to take Gordon's spot at PF, which is suiting him better, or simply because he's soaking up Gordon's usage, and taking advantage of the extra opportunities? Hopefully the Kings are doing their homework...

 

[Mike]

Yeah, that's the conundrum (at least to me, without having watched the Magic play much). Hezonja is flourishing without Gordon, but is that because he's able to take Gordon's spot at PF, which is suiting him better, or simply because he's soaking up Gordon's usage, and taking advantage of the extra opportunities? Hopefully the Kings are doing their homework...

From what I've seen of the Magic since Gordon has missed games, they are spacing the floor better and shooting very well. The ball and player movement has improved, which is not surprising when Gordon and Vucevic are out because their strengths and style clashes with a more up tempo style.

So I'd say that Hezonja's breakout is a bit of both. Obviously the opportunity has helped him because he's got a defined role and an increase in minutes, but the tweaks to their system have also helped, which can partly be attributed to his involvement in the line up at PF because of his ability to shoot and get those looks which Gordon doesn't get.

For me, I don't think Hezonja would be doing as well at SF or SG with Gordon at PF and Vucevic at C. I could be wrong, but the improvements that have been seen in Hezonja have gone hand in hand with the tweaks to Orlando's starting line up and offensive system. With that in mind I think he's more likely to have success in line ups with better ball and player movement, rather than line ups that aren't as fluid with the movement.

 

[ParniValjak]

Yes, I appreciated your breakdown of his performance by position, and I wonder why other posters seem to just blow by those numbers and assume we should acquire Hezonja to play SF, when we should stop and think about why he finally seemed to break out playing at PF. I haven't watched the Magic much this season, so I'd be curious to hear from those who have.

Some are saying the team should look into Hezonja only if the team doesn't land a SF, but I'll admit to being intrigued by a "positionless" lineup of Fox/Bogi/Doncic/Hezonja and WCS (with his switching on D) or Giles (with his alleged passing prowess) at the 5.

In terms of Hezonja being "bullied" by other PFs -- in the Western conference (I'm not going to get too worked up about matchups we'll see at most twice), it's mostly, who, Aldridge, Millsap and Davis? And that's assuming the Pelicans re-sign Boogie or get another center to keep Davis at PF.

I think the analysis needs to be a LOT more thorough than just how he is performing in a certain position.

When looking at the data that points to Hezonja having a "breakout" as a PF, you also need to take into account the type of team, players on that team, how that team plays, how does Hezonja's game fit on the team in certain position etc...

There is a lot more to just "He had a breakout patch as a PF so that must be his best position! The fact that he can play some PF is a good thing but having watched this kid from his junior days prior to the NBA, his best position is SF. He plays the position in a very similar manner in which Peja played it. He is smaller than Peja but the at the same time a lot more athletic than Peja was.

 

[sactowndog]

From what I've seen of the Magic since Gordon has missed games, they are spacing the floor better and shooting very well. The ball and player movement has improved, which is not surprising when Gordon and Vucevic are out because their strengths and style clashes with a more up tempo style.

So I'd say that Hezonja's breakout is a bit of both. Obviously the opportunity has helped him because he's got a defined role and an increase in minutes, but the tweaks to their system have also helped, which can partly be attributed to his involvement in the line up at PF because of his ability to shoot and get those looks which Gordon doesn't get.

For me, I don't think Hezonja would be doing as well at SF or SG with Gordon at PF and Vucevic at C. I could be wrong, but the improvements that have been seen in Hezonja have gone hand in hand with the tweaks to Orlando's starting line up and offensive system. With that in mind I think he's more likely to have success in line ups with better ball and player movement, rather than line ups that aren't as fluid with the movement.

I think this style is the European style that Vlade wants to play and suits most of our young guys

 

[sactowndog]

While I don't think we will go with a 15 man roster I can certainly get on board the starting 5 of

Ayton
Giles
Hezonja
Bogdanovic
Fox

in a couple of years time.

I still think that there is a reasonable chance that WCS gets shipped out if Kings draft Ayton and Giles really is as advertised. In that case, I can definitely see us bringing back Kosta as a veteran mentor to Ayton who can start until we bring Ayton along slowly (similar to what we did with Hill and Fox this season)

I highly doubt Caboclo will be back next year and I personally would love Temple back but I am not sure that will happen especially with Shumpert unlikely to opt out of his deal.

Well I hope we follow the Celtics model and keep 15 on the roster with the intent of the two younger guys spending lots of time in Reno.

If you assume this 15 man roster
WCS, Ayton, KK
Giles, ZBo, Skal
Hezonja, JJ, Caboclo
Bogdan, Heild, Shumpert
Fox, Temple, Mason

You have 13 active and Skal, Caboclo and Mason either beat out the vets or if they are on the end of the bench they spend time in Reno. Even Ayton and Heild may spend a little time in Reno. Our second round picks should be given two-way contracts with Reno.

 

[sactowndog]

The Kings are much higher on Willie, than people on this forum might think. Joerger love his defense and is encouraged by his improvement on the offensive side of the ball. So much so that he's given Willie a bit of a green light on offense. For Willie to be traded, it would have to be an offer that the Kings can't refuse. Trust me, many teams around the league have inquired about Willie. Even though many on this forum are blind to what Willie does on the floor defensively, the rest of the league isn't.

I think we keep Willie unless we can sign Jokic as an UFA in 2019.

 

[Mike]

I think we keep Willie unless we can sign Jokic as an UFA in 2019.

Depending on how the lottery balls fall or how the picks before us go, we could end up drafting one of the bigs: Ayton, Bamba or Jackson.

At the minute we are unlikely to draft Trae Young because of Fox. Our interest in Michael Porter depends on his back. If Bagley and Doncic are gone (and there's debate over Bagley's fit next to Willie), a big might make the most sense and could make Willie expendable come extension time.

 

[Joshoua]

Willie isn’t expendable until Giles gets in the court and we have drafted a big.

 

[sactowndog]

Willie isn’t expendable until Giles gets in the court and we have drafted a big.

Even then you really need 3 bigs. Skal hasn’t proven anything.

 

[The_Jamal]

I think there would be more people than just Peja working with him but given that we would want him to play SF in a similar fashion that Peja played the position (i.e. defend, spread the floor, keep moving to get open, cut etc..) I could think of a far worse mentors to have.

Hezonja has the potential to be a Peja like player, i.e. player of the same caliber as Peja and have similar sort of career. He happens to play the position we have a need at, provides the sort of thing that is valued in todays game (long range shooting) and can also play some PF in smaller line up (like Peja did at times).

Overall the fit is there, talent is there, we are probably willing to back ourselves in to bring the best out of Hezonja and the price is probably going to be right for us. It all depends on what happens at draft time. If we draft a big (please let it be Ayton) then Hezonja makes so much sense for this team. Not only in terms of fit (position, age, game attributes) but also already established relationships here.

Not a bad comparison, I do think Peja would have been insane at small-ball PF in today's game as he was a pretty solid rebounder for the SF position. Just imagining him next to a Harden/LeBron/Steph/KD would have been so much fun to watch. Hezonja is in a similar vein where he has enough size not to get decimated in the post and is actually a decent rebounder. Probably won't ever reach Peja level, but the talent is their to craft a similar kind of player as you said.

I think even if we draft Doncic or Porter, that bringing in Hezonja is still a smart move. His best position just might be at small-PF where we certainly have a big need and nothing is decided on the team. Even if Skal develops takes the job, I still really like the idea of him possibly coming off the bench and being a flex scoring option off the bench at the 3 and 4. Or if he doesn't having 3 floor spacers and your 1 PnR big is a tantalizing proposition next to Fox's ability to get to the rim.

Fox || Mason
Bogdan || Buddy
Doncic || JJ
Hezonja || Skal
WCS || Giles

There's a ton of length/flexibility and firepower with that core and we'd have a bunch of guys who can straight get buckets on any given night. We'd have 3 guys who project as quality playmakers (something any good playoff team needs) and a ton of guys who should be really good shooters.

 

[The_Jamal]

That's precisely why you don't play him at PF. You need a bunch of variables around him to be correct for it to work and even with those variables in place, he's still going to get destroyed by Griffin, Davis, etc.

Disagree. I mean Davis, yeah, but the dude clowns anybody pretty much every game. Maybe 2 or 3 guys in the entire NBA who can reasonably check him and even then, he's still going to get his. But a guy like Griffin is a different story. He relies on the Face-up game and getting to the rim with his explosion rather than posting up and backing a guy down. Honestly, ZBO might be the last guy in the NBA who relies on a power-post up game. Pretty much all the other elite PF's can play out on the perimeter, handle, get to the rim, face-up from 15 and draw the foul. Defending the PF position very much so relies on being able to defend away from the rim and having the lateral quickness to stave off drives to the rim and deal with ball-handling big men.

So unless you have a Draymond or Aminu type who's a proven defender of the new-age PF's or one of the elite offensive PF's, (who all spend time at C now btw), teams would be much better-suited playing smaller and adding an extra elite-floor spacer and making them play defense on the other end.

 

[ParniValjak]

Even then you really need 3 bigs. Skal hasn’t proven anything.

That's true but you need to look at the cost allocation of the salary cap to 3 positions. If you need to sign WCS for $12-15 million and lets for arguments sake say that Giles and a drafte (e.g. Ayton) are going to be max or near max type of players, then that is far too much money allocated to 3 positions. You are better off getting someone for $8 million who can be a big off the bench for you than spending $12-15 million on WCS.

It really all hypothetical at this point to be honest for a number of reasons

1. We don't know who will will draft
2. We don't know what WCS will cost
3. We don't know if Giles will come close to living up to the hype
4. We still don't know if Skal will develop into a good NBA player
5. And we don't know how all those players will fit or complement each other on the court.

A LOT of water to go under the bridge but if all goes really well, then there will be tough decisions that need to be made at some point in time.

 

[ParniValjak]

Not a bad comparison, I do think Peja would have been insane at small-ball PF in today's game as he was a pretty solid rebounder for the SF position. Just imagining him next to a Harden/LeBron/Steph/KD would have been so much fun to watch. Hezonja is in a similar vein where he has enough size not to get decimated in the post and is actually a decent rebounder. Probably won't ever reach Peja level, but the talent is their to craft a similar kind of player as you said.

I think even if we draft Doncic or Porter, that bringing in Hezonja is still a smart move. His best position just might be at small-PF where we certainly have a big need and nothing is decided on the team. Even if Skal develops takes the job, I still really like the idea of him possibly coming off the bench and being a flex scoring option off the bench at the 3 and 4. Or if he doesn't having 3 floor spacers and your 1 PnR big is a tantalizing proposition next to Fox's ability to get to the rim.

Fox || Mason
Bogdan || Buddy
Doncic || JJ
Hezonja || Skal
WCS || Giles

There's a ton of length/flexibility and firepower with that core and we'd have a bunch of guys who can straight get buckets on any given night. We'd have 3 guys who project as quality playmakers (something any good playoff team needs) and a ton of guys who should be really good shooters.

I just don't buy Hezonja as a full time PF hype. It is a terrible fit, no rebounding, no defense for some shooting. Peja was actually a pretty good one on one defender and his height allowed him to defend some PFs out there. One game he was defending Michael Redd then the next game he was defending Dirk and doing a pretty good job in both cases.

Hezonja will not have the size or strength to go with Davis, Favors, Griffin, Green, etc... West is loaded with good PFs. Can he play spot minutes at PF in certain games? Sure! As a full time PF, I am not convinced. The line up that you presented would get abused on the glass on a nightly basis and better PFs in the league would have career games each night.

 

[sactowndog]

That's true but you need to look at the cost allocation of the salary cap to 3 positions. If you need to sign WCS for $12-15 million and lets for arguments sake say that Giles and a drafte (e.g. Ayton) are going to be max or near max type of players, then that is far too much money allocated to 3 positions. You are better off getting someone for $8 million who can be a big off the bench for you than spending $12-15 million on WCS.

It really all hypothetical at this point to be honest for a number of reasons

1. We don't know who will will draft
2. We don't know what WCS will cost
3. We don't know if Giles will come close to living up to the hype
4. We still don't know if Skal will develop into a good NBA player
5. And we don't know how all those players will fit or complement each other on the court.

A LOT of water to go under the bridge but if all goes really well, then there will be tough decisions that need to be made at some point in time.

Your correct but we have 4 years and a qualifying offer on the rookies you can offer Willie a 3-4 year deal and still be okay on total salary. After their rookie deals ends your point becomes a real deal.

 

[sactowndog]

That's true but you need to look at the cost allocation of the salary cap to 3 positions. If you need to sign WCS for $12-15 million and lets for arguments sake say that Giles and a drafte (e.g. Ayton) are going to be max or near max type of players, then that is far too much money allocated to 3 positions. You are better off getting someone for $8 million who can be a big off the bench for you than spending $12-15 million on WCS.

It really all hypothetical at this point to be honest for a number of reasons

1. We don't know who will will draft
2. We don't know what WCS will cost
3. We don't know if Giles will come close to living up to the hype
4. We still don't know if Skal will develop into a good NBA player
5. And we don't know how all those players will fit or complement each other on the court.

A LOT of water to go under the bridge but if all goes really well, then there will be tough decisions that need to be made at some point in time.

I would agree we don’t know about Giles but after playing in practice all year I have to think the Kings have a good idea.

 

[Blob]

Even though many on this forum are blind to what Willie does on the floor defensively, the rest of the league isn't.

Nonsense alert.

 

[Blob]

I don't think Hezonja is any better than JaKarr Sampson with regards to being an impact player.

We should sign JaKarr Sampson to a 3 year 4 million deal before giving a dime to Mario in free agency.

JaKarr Sampson is the type of player that Darryl Morey identifies and acquires.

If we don't secure him long term don't be surprised if Sampson is wearing a Rockets jersey in 2018-19.

 

[sactowndog]

I don't think Hezonja is any better than JaKarr Sampson with regards to being an impact player.

We should sign JaKarr Sampson to a 3 year 4 million deal before giving a dime to Mario in free agency.

JaKarr Sampson is the type of player that Darryl Morey identifies and acquires.

If we don't secure him long term don't be surprised if Sampson is wearing a Rockets jersey in 2018-19.

I haven’t seen Sampson in the plan. Kings seem to have a surplus of high athletic, low IQ players. Does Sampson help here.