Bagley out 4-6 weeks

People see what they want to see.

As great as Luka's highlights have been, he's still got real efficiency issues and defensively is a matador that is going to require serious game planning around to hide, which I'm sure Kingsfans would have no issue complaining about were he on the roster.
Thank you.

Our grass is green enough.
 
People see what they want to see.

As great as Luka's highlights have been, he's still got real efficiency issues and defensively is a matador that is going to require serious game planning around to hide, which I'm sure Kingsfans would have no issue complaining about were he on the roster.
Last year Luka had 4.1 BPM and 3,6 VORP,. Whatever his weaknesses are, he was a big net positive as a 19 year old playing the hardest/most valuable role. Its certainly not just his highlights, its his exceptional contribution on the court in the context of his age and his role in comparsion to other players in his draft class.
 
This sucks big time! He's going to lose a month and a half and then God knows how much more till he gets back to the 100% production.

Hope Giles would get back soon, because I'm not very excited about HB or Ariza spending many minutes at 4. Wonder if Bjelica could step up and play like he did at the beginning of last season.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
Well, this injury is going to cost us a run at the playoffs. I hope fortune smiles upon us this spring.
Vlade gave fortune the middle finger last draft, she hates us now. We're dropping spots for the next ten years...

It's funny, if we were picking 3rd or lower I'd be fine with Bagley. Hell, last year he was starting to put together awesome games, it just sucks that we passed on a superstar for a maybe, hopefully allstar.

I hope he gets well soon, and stays healthy (injury concerns may be a thing going forward). Not all Luka stans are rooting against Bagley. I reeeeeaaaaally want him to kick ass and meet his potential. I think he can be pretty legit in a couple years.
 
I said it would be a mistake to draft him and posted data to back up my claim only for the kings to go and select him. He’s exactly the player I feared he would be.
I'm sorry... what data that you have that can back up your claim about a team with the exact make-up of the Kings drafting a mobile flashy PF who you deemed a "non difference maker" (which btw, do you have data to back up THAT claim?) end up becoming a tragedy?
 
I'm sorry... what data that you have that can back up your claim about a team with the exact make-up of the Kings drafting a mobile flashy PF who you deemed a "non difference maker" (which btw, do you have data to back up THAT claim?) end up becoming a tragedy?
Ok but flashy?
 
As someone who has taken a huge step back away from sports in general, let me give my opinion on this Luka/Bagley thing. I only mention my step back from sports because as of now, I only want to be entertained and the kings are not very entertaining. I will not be investing valuable money, time, and emotion in something that is boring or a huge life suck.

Huge “fanatics” of the kings will say just about anything to pump up Bagley in order to soften the crushing realization that Vlade has made the biggest mistake in Sacramento era kings history. And I understand! It almost physically hurts when the team you love makes moronic decisions.
You read any other teams forum where people have no horse in this race and you get more of an objective view. Luka is going to be a superstar. He had the qualities pre draft. Those qualities are showing themselves more now. And, the kings have got to be kicking themselves for not drafting him. You don’t draft for need, you draft the best player! I mean for crying out loud, a specific team that every kings fan hates has a thread at their fan forum specifically dedicated to following Luka doncic. It’s been up since they day he was drafted. That should tell everyone something!
For me personally, I don’t care about the numbers. Watching what both of these young men contribute, there is no comparison. Luka is so much better than Bagley. Leaps and bounds better. The eye test usually works well enough for me.

Why beat this dead horse, as some here love to say? Because this inexcusable decision is going to end up setting back this franchise a decade or more. Vlade choosing Bagley over Luka will end up costing this team valuable time and lots of fan support. It will lead to many bad moves that probably wouldn’t have happened had the kings chosen Luka. Just my opinion of course.

Unfortunately for a lot of kings fanatics here, the Luka/Bagley debate is not going away. IMO, as luka gets better quicker, and Bagley just continues to be good, the debate is actually going to get a lot more contentious.
 
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I'm sorry... what data that you have that can back up your claim about a team with the exact make-up of the Kings drafting a mobile flashy PF who you deemed a "non difference maker" (which btw, do you have data to back up THAT claim?) end up becoming a tragedy?
JJJ has an elite skill (defense) what elite skill does bagley have? It certainly isn't defense. The chance of him becoming an elite offensive player are slim to none also. The only players that are high impact game altering offensive players A. Create shots for themselves B. Create shots for others. B is out of the question, it's extremely rare for a big and Bagley has not shown the chops. As far as creating offense for himself, post offense is inefficient.

In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.

—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.

Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher

Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB, Jokic, Karl Malone. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.

Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional Big big.

The story is the same for offensive RPM.

2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).

2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.

+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs


A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.
 
As someone who has taken a huge step back away from sports in general, let me give my opinion on this Luka/Bagley thing. I only mention my step back from sports because as of now, I only want to be entertained and the kings are not very entertaining. I will not be investing valuable money, time, and emotion in something that is boring or a huge life suck.

Huge “fanatics” of the kings will say just about anything to pump up Bagley in order to soften the crushing realization that Vlade has made the biggest mistake in Sacramento era kings history. And I understand! It almost physically hurts when the team you love makes moronic decisions.
You read any other teams forum where people have no horse in this race and you get more of an objective view. Luka is going to be a superstar. He had the qualities pre draft. Those qualities are showing themselves more now. And, the kings have got to be kicking themselves for not drafting him. You don’t draft for need, you draft the best player! I mean for crying out loud, a specific team that every kings fan hates has a thread at their fan forum specifically dedicated to following Luka doncic. It’s been up since they day he was drafted. That should tell everyone something!
For me personally, I don’t care about the numbers. Watching what both of these young men contribute, there is no comparison. Luka is so much better than Bagley. Leaps and bounds better. The eye test usually works well enough for me.

Why beat this dead horse, as some here love to say? Because this inexcusable decision is going to end up setting back this franchise a decade or more. Vlade choosing Bagley over Luka will end up costing this team valuable time and lots of fan support. It will lead to many bad moves that probably wouldn’t have happened had the kings chosen Luka. Just my opinion of course.

Unfortunately for a lot of kings fanatics here, the Luka/Bagley debate is not going away. IMO, as luka gets better quicker, and Bagley just continues to be good, the debate is actually going to get a lot more contentious.
I'm sorry to say this, but based on what I'm seeing so far this is 100% correct, unfortunately.

I do hope bags can prove me, and others who see the obvious, wrong. But that'll be a longshot...
 
We've missed on other picks in hindsight, but this was the only time we were handed a franchise-making opportunity on a silver platter that was blindingly obvious in the moment, and we said "no thanks."
It was the biggest stroke of luck the franchise has ever received. Usually this place compounds bad decisions with bad luck, such as dropping in the draft but reaching anyway. but this was the biggest example of the basketball gods smiling on them and they just threw it away.

I used to think that the Bagley pick was bad just because of Doncic, and that in a vacuum Bagley was a good pick at that spot. Now... I'm not so sure. Trae Young has proven me wrong completely, Ayton took Bagley's lunch the other night, JJJ seems to the definition of the modern big.
 
JJJ has an elite skill (defense) what elite skill does bagley have? It certainly isn't defense...

Thank you for sharing tyguy's comment. Unfortunately, you get no argument from me there. I loved Doncic back then. I just hope Bayley can still be great in his own way, for our sake.