Anatomy of a Stalled Rebuild: Which Kings Team Was Better?

[twslam07]

I'm leaning fairly strongly in this direction. I've been thinking for a while now that this team isn't close to having an established core, that relative stability is a long way off. I don't think any differently today.

The core is currently Cousins and Gay. Assume the Kings resign Gay after this year. They add a #1 pick to the roster in the draft. If they resign Gay under that scenario I'm assuming they would presumably have had a respectable year, somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 ball. (It's hard to imagine they resign Gay if it's a distastrous year). So that means they don't have a top 5 pick, more like a pick that's #10 or greater. Where exactly does that get you? And who else do you have to trade to get better? Thompson? LOL. McLemore? LOL. How about Williams? Double LOL. I just don't see the yellow brick road with that core and with the non-assets the Kings currently have in their possession. At best I see a team wandering in the no-man's land of mediocrity for years to come, getting into the playoffs, but having no chance whatsoever of getting to the promised land.

The Kings have had bad drafts, got next to nothing for the guys they did draft correctly - Tyreke and Thomas - and now are left with a bare cupboard. It's not going to surprise me in the least if they blow it up again, including Cousins, including Gay, and start from scratch.

I agree. That is why this season is so important when it comes to Gay. We're not going to get another player of his caliber to come here so we better hope & pray that he pans out and plays like the unselfish, efficient #2 option we need; otherwise, we'll be stuck in no mans land until we are able to draft some more talent (not bringing in anyone significant in free agency and not going to be able to trade for anyone significant with the lack of talent) and after we resign Cousins again (which is probably unlikely if we go through another 4 years of losing). It's a very scary time right now, and for all our sake, I hope Gay plays like the player we need (He's not off to a good start).

 

[ForlornKing]

2010-2011

I remember that year when literally almost every game we were competitive and in the game until the last few minutes. Then our inexperience took over and we couldn't close out the games. I remember thinking once we can just gain experience with this roster we will be fine.

 

[swisshh]

I would say there's more useful players on the team right now, but the talent of the top five is still only slightly better. Actually, I would say with all of those rosters the one thing that remains an issue in all of those years is that it's hard to pick out a solid starting five from the available players.

 

[Larry David]

The problem is that bad teams tend to remain bad until they back into a young all-star or two because they don't commit to doing the right things on both sides of the ball.* We've been bad or mediocre for 8 years. We are in the neighborhood of 90s Clippers level of bad. So, even when a few players now try to give a crap, our players are even more likely than those other bad teams to say, "Screw it. They don't care. So I don't care. Time to work on my numbers so I can get paid." That happened here for a long time in the late 80s and 90s, until Richmond, Brian Grant, Roony, Michael Smith and others helped drag this team out of hell bit by bit.

As detailed above, they Kings changed the owner, GM, coach, and over 90% of the players in just three years trying to "change the culture." Yet, it's clear as day that the team often still has long spells where they give no craps about either defense or sharing the ball. As such, the notion that firing another coach or making a few more tweaks to the roster will lead this group to commit to lock down defense and sharing the ball seems like pie in the sky.

They probably need to either:

Not obscenely overpay Rudy on a 4 or 5 years deal, when 2-3 other teams line up to over pay Rudy this summer thereby locking up mediocrity for the foreseeable future, and after he walks start to rebuild yet again via the draft. This would suck.

Swing for the fences again with some of the wild trades for distressed assets or potential free agents being bantered about this summer; show players Sacramento isn't NBA hell; let some of the air out of that risky balloon; and then build up the right way. I think the team will keep heading down this road and I wouldn't be shocked to start hearing rumors about Rondo and Boston getting the right to swap picks with the Kings in 2016 or 2018. If this goes badly (Rondo and Gay walk and we have Boston's 2016 pick, not ours), the Kings will end up missing the playoffs for another 4-5 years. Odds favor this is worse than option A.

This is what happens when morons are allowed to neglect a team for over 6 years and then a new excited owner starts gunning for the playoffs with non-playoff talent simply because he and the fans both want to win now.




* The young all star often doesn't know how to win, but the teams put good vets around them: who want to ride that young start out of NBA hell and into the playoffs; and teach the player to play the right way.

We did not bring in those guys for Cousins. Also, Cousins had/has issues with listening to people telling him that he's doing things wrong, when we started to. Bit of a two way street on that.

 

[Kingster]

I agree. That is why this season is so important when it comes to Gay. We're not going to get another player of his caliber to come here so we better hope & pray that he pans out and plays like the unselfish, efficient #2 option we need; otherwise, we'll be stuck in no mans land until we are able to draft some more talent (not bringing in anyone significant in free agency and not going to be able to trade for anyone significant with the lack of talent) and after we resign Cousins again (which is probably unlikely if we go through another 4 years of losing). It's a very scary time right now, and for all our sake, I hope Gay plays like the player we need (He's not off to a good start).

Yes, Gay has got to play well in order to be a valuable asset. If he is a valuable asset, we either retain his services for the Kings or we trade him to another team for value (The opposite of the Tyreke/IT situations). If Gay doesn't play well and you're left with a devalued asset, you're screwed. Then the best you can do is let him walk, pocket the money, and go out in FA trying to acquire the best player(s) you can for a perennial bottom-dweller. That'll probably give you mediocrity for as far as you can see.

Best case: Gay plays just below All-Star level and Kings exceed .500
2nd Scenario: Kings play lousy in the first half of the season, Gay still has value; Kings do a midseason trade with him for value.
3rd Scenario: Kings play lousy, Gay is terrible; Kings can't get much for a midseason trade and either accept the dregs they get for Gay in the trade or let him go and get FAs during the summer who aren't all that great because they never are all that great when the playoffs are light years away. You will then be in Dante's Limbo for all eternity.

 

[twslam07]

Yes, Gay has got to play well in order to be a valuable asset. If he is a valuable asset, we either retain his services for the Kings or we trade him to another team for value (The opposite of the Tyreke/IT situations). If Gay doesn't play well and you're left with a devalued asset, you're screwed. Then the best you can do is let him walk, pocket the money, and go out in FA trying to acquire the best player(s) you can for a perennial bottom-dweller. That'll probably give you mediocrity for as far as you can see.

Best case: Gay plays just below All-Star level and Kings exceed .500
2nd Scenario: Kings play lousy in the first half of the season, Gay still has value; Kings do a midseason trade with him for value.
3rd Scenario: Kings play lousy, Gay is terrible; Kings can't get much for a midseason trade and either accept the dregs they get for Gay in the trade or let him go and get FAs during the summer who aren't all that great because they never are all that great when the playoffs are light years away. You will then be in Dante's Limbo for all eternity.

Again, this is pretty much how I see it as well. I really hope it works out; otherwise, I could see us maxing out at as a fringe playoff team by the time Cousins is up for his next contract. He's a loyal guy, but I'm not sure how loyal he's going to be after 8 seasons of losing/mediocrity.

 

[Kingster]

I'd like to throw this out to the board for discussion. From the beginning of the new Kings organization, it seemed to me that was a lot of talk about a three-year plan. This plan would roughly coincide with the opening of the new arena. I just wonder if the Kings management/ownership has created their own box by this artificial deadline. It's tough enough to be successful in the NBA, but when you put arbitrary deadlines on exactly what type team you're going to have by X date it seems to me you make it that much harder to finally reach your goal.

 

[Larry David]

I'd like to throw this out to the board for discussion. From the beginning of the new Kings organization, it seemed to me that was a lot of talk about a three-year plan. This plan would roughly coincide with the opening of the new arena. I just wonder if the Kings management/ownership has created their own box by this artificial deadline. It's tough enough to be successful in the NBA, but when you put arbitrary deadlines on exactly what type team you're going to have by X date it seems to me you make it that much harder to finally reach your goal.

Yes. This. The justifications for the two or three year plan I've seen are: the fans are tired of losing; and we want to be good when we open the new arena. I get the why and those are good reasons. But, you can't make yourself a playoff team in the West just because you want to be. But you can delay or even screw up your future by picking in the back half of the lottery and jacking up your cap chasing a goal that you can't logically reach.

You don't have to try to suck like the 76ers. But you might want to objectively consider what you have, how the rebuild process is done, and what the downside risks are.

If this was just the start of another season of suck, it would be one thing. I'm very concerned Viveck and the Gerbil are going to push or non-playoff streak to 11+ years due to rookie mistakes and hubris.

 

[Larry David]

value[/I].
.

I can't see the Kings and another team working out a trade where we take back 17+ million in contracts (total season value) that are expiring and/or something we value. Seems like a very tall order.

Rudy will hit free agency. If he doesn't play well, the Kings will over him 4 years at around 110% of his market value and he'll go elsewhere. If he plays well, to keep him, the Kings will give him a 5 year deal at over 120% of his market value whatever that is. Once he's paid, I think he becomes the guys Raptors and Grizzlies fans weren't a big fan of.

 

[Kingster]

Yes. This. The justifications for the two or three year plan I've seen are: the fans are tired of losing; and we want to be good when we open the new arena. I get the why and those are good reasons. But, you can't make yourself a playoff team in the West just because you want to be. But you can delay or even screw up your future by picking in the back half of the lottery and jacking up your cap chasing a goal that you can't logically reach.

You don't have to try to suck like the 76ers. But you might want to objectively consider what you have, how the rebuild process is done, and what the downside risks are.

If this was just the start of another season of suck, it would be one thing. I'm very concerned Viveck and the Gerbil are going to push or non-playoff streak to 11+ years due to rookie mistakes and hubris.

Very well said. You put into words some of my unformed doubts about this approach. Another item to add to the list may be that if PDA doesn't feel like he's within reach of the three-year goal he may panic and mortgage the future for a short term pop.

 

[gunks]

Just for fun:

Tyreke had 22/9/10 tonight, shot 50% from 3 (made 3 out of 6). Highest +/- on the Pelicans (who lost to the new look Mavs).


Really, I think letting Reke go was the biggest **** up of the new FO. With the contracts/extensions being handed out, Reke's deal is a bargain. Ah well...