2021 Free Agency Mega Thread

[pdxKingsFan]

It doesn't really matter where we had Mitchell, it matters where the Kings had him on their boards. I will say this, he wasn't a reach at 9. Most draft experts had the Warriors taking either Bouknight or Mitchell with the 7th pick. You have to look pretty hard to find one that didn't have him in their top 10.

Everyone always says to "take the best player available"; but the moment a team does, they get criticized for taking a player that doesn't fit.

to be honest, I was able to find quite a few mocks where he wasn't top 10 but they also had guys who fell into the late teens and 20s. the stupid ESPN ticker had a handful of players ranked in their top 5 BPA when we were picking that went mid-2nd round. But I'm somewhat inclined to agree that had Suggs gone to Toronto and Orlando picked Barnes, Mitchell is off the board by 8. The other wild card of course was OKC picking Giddey instead of Mitchell, Kuminga or Bouknight. I do believe that Barnes and Giddey pretty much 1-2 blew up the rest of the lottery. hon. mention to Primo and the Spurs.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I hate to say it, but if there was a consensus BPA at #9 this year, it was probably Mitchell. As I tried to make clear in my previous post, you are confusing two ideas: 1) Taking a bad player who you think will be good a player and 2) Taking who you think is the best player when he contributes to a positional logjam. #1 is always a bad outcome, regardless of whether there is a positional logjam or not. #2 is almost always a good outcome as long as the player you think is the best player turns out to be close to the best player.

My draft would probably have been Jalen Johnson given the players available at #9 (and I would have been tempted by Isaiah Todd, particularly if he had better draft stock). Once Wagner went off the board, I probably would haave tried to trade down for something like OKC's 16+18, where both of those players would have been available, as well as Sengun. But I'm not GM. And if Monte thought that Davion was the clear BPA, that's who he should pick, regardless of fit. That's what I assume happened.

Davion was in no way a reach - he was being mocked as high as #7. If the major consequence of the logjam is that we had to send off an OK backup PG for a backup center, that's really not a huge deal.

I would have been very comfortable trading down entering the day (or out for a major trade) and also after Wagner got picked hat Mitchell been gone as well. Lot of guys with very high upside potential but also glaring holes or red flags in the next 10 picks. I don't think I could ever overcome my personal bias against Duke players who don't work out and given JJ a go.

 

[ESP47]

McNair may have had him as the BPA but most of us didn't. If the Kings had the 5th pick and picked Suggs.....there would have been way less people shocked by the pick because Suggs would have been the consensus BPA by most Kings fans even though he plays a redundant position.

Even though this thread was more of a "best pick for the Kings" thread instead of a BPA thread, we still had Suggs at 5. We had Davion at 14. I think most Kings fans had either Moody or Jalen Johnson as the BPA at 9 when the Kings were on the clock. We'll see if it's another case of the fans being right again or if the GM can outsmart the consensus for once. Not saying we've never missed but I honestly can't think of a time in recent memory where the GM picked a non consensus type player and he wound up being better than who most of us wanted.

https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/kingsfans-2021-draft-board-24.80189/

 

[EIM86]

Also BMac and Stauskas were exhibits due to "consensus player" being available and an owner who knew everything. ugggh. best not to revisit the final magoof and double-bonehead early years of vivek.

ughhhhh he just kept saying Stauskas over and over again I was losing my mind

 

[The_Jamal]

McNair may have had him as the BPA but most of us didn't. If the Kings had the 5th pick and picked Suggs.....there would have been way less people shocked by the pick because Suggs would have been the consensus BPA by most Kings fans even though he plays a redundant position.

Even though this thread was more of a "best pick for the Kings" thread instead of a BPA thread, we still had Suggs at 5. We had Davion at 14. I think most Kings fans had either Moody or Jalen Johnson as the BPA at 9 when the Kings were on the clock. We'll see if it's another case of the fans being right again or if the GM can outsmart the consensus for once. Not saying we've never missed but I honestly can't think of a time in recent memory where the GM picked a non consensus type player and he wound up being better than who most of us wanted.

https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/kingsfans-2021-draft-board-24.80189/

This has me thinking I totally fell into the trap of "Kings need-centric" big board rather than actual BPA. I honestly did no homework on Mitchell scouting; the Kings didn't need a guard and I didn't think there was a chance we'd take one. Now, I would have taken Moody fairly easily at 9, but maybe if I'm truly BPA centric and I did more work on Mitchell pre-draft, that changes? Idk

But if Mitchell was 6th on McNair's big board and Moody was 14th, he should take his higher value prospect, not the one that "fits" better. That's what BPA is. It's on him to clean up the roster glut to fit around his draft investments afterwards.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423881163689582597

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Obviously we can't judge by a summer league game but Moody does not look like he is going to contribute immediately. That might be ok if he is stashed away on the Warriors but if you're drafting for need and the player is a 2-3 year project I don't get how that beats going BPA (if your board is different) and making a trade for need.

 

[steelevt]

It doesn't really matter where we had Mitchell, it matters where the Kings had him on their boards. I will say this, he wasn't a reach at 9. Most draft experts had the Warriors taking either Bouknight or Mitchell with the 7th pick. You have to look pretty hard to find one that didn't have him in their top 10.

Everyone always says to "take the best player available"; but the moment a team does, they get criticized for taking a player that doesn't fit.

https://www.nba.com/news/2021-consensus-mock-draft

most mocks had him going 13 or 14. They had him going to gs but with their second pick. And the main reason he only went to them is because he was considered nba ready due to age and how long he played in college. Not due to potential. GS needed that because the are win now mode. He was a reach. They decided to go with Kuminga because he was a consensus BPA that fell.
Again I want davion to do well cuz he’s a king. Just like bagley over Luka. But this whole discussion started because we needed a wing and at 9, there isn’t a clear bpa to use the bpa over fit argument.

 

[sactowndog]

Yeah, and there are 40 teams that wish they picked Jokic. The point isn't that you "lose" the draft if you don't find the surprise all-star, the guy who is absolutely the best player who was available when all is said and done. The point is that you DON'T "lose" the draft by picking a very good player who creates a positional logjam. (And, do you really think that if Portland shied away from McCollum for positional reasons that they'd have gone with Giannis? I doubt it. What if they go with Shabazz Muhammad?)

well it’s a longer argument but I would argue having two shoot first undersized point guards is a quandary Portland has not been able to solve. And Giannis was picked 5 spots behind CJ so it wasn’t an out of the ball park stretch.

Philly is a better example of your point because neither center was better than Meh. Once you are overlapping a potential/likely all-star the point like many absolute truisms can be stretched too far.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

https://www.nba.com/news/2021-consensus-mock-draft

most mocks had him going 13 or 14. They had him going to gs but with their second pick. And the main reason he only went to them is because he was considered nba ready due to age and how long he played in college. Not due to potential. GS needed that because the are win now mode. He was a reach. They decided to go with Kuminga because he was a consensus BPA that fell.
Again I want davion to do well cuz he’s a king. Just like bagley over Luka. But this whole discussion started because we needed a wing and at 9, there isn’t a clear bpa to use the bpa over fit argument.

I think this is a good test to see how Monte's evaluation skills are overall. And let's be honest, at 9, it's pretty much a coinflip at best on whether you get a rotation player, a bust or you find the one guy everyone missed. I have no clue but I have a pretty good feeling he won't be the bust.

 

[The_Jamal]

https://www.nba.com/news/2021-consensus-mock-draft

most mocks had him going 13 or 14. They had him going to gs but with their second pick. And the main reason he only went to them is because he was considered nba ready due to age and how long he played in college. Not due to potential. GS needed that because the are win now mode. He was a reach. They decided to go with Kuminga because he was a consensus BPA that fell.
Again I want davion to do well cuz he’s a king. Just like bagley over Luka. But this whole discussion started because we needed a wing and at 9, there isn’t a clear bpa to use the bpa over fit argument.

You just answered the question. Bagley was a better "fit (although, I'd even argue this point that Luka and Fox couldn't play together) as a great prospect while the Kings didn't "need" another ball-dominant player.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what the consensus big board or our big board is. It's what Monte's big board is and he's shown he's very willing to follow it, no matter what it does to the roster construction. If Moody is the next Mikal Bridges while we're stuck with Pat Bev off the bench.. yeah it's going to be annoying that random Kings fans once again saw the right pick over a GM getting paid millions of dollars. But if Moody is the next Mikal Bridges while Mitchell is making the All-defensive team every year? I don't think fans will really care all that much on passing on Moody.

 

[NewArena]

Yesterday Carmichael Dave tweeted that Monte is being aggressive in trying to get deals done so I'm not quite sure we can shut the door on things yet.

Yup, and being smart about it as well. Once the excitement of doing a trade wears off, what happens when everyone hates it? I’d rather Monte be aggressive but not necessarily jump at the first two deals that are discussed. Fans are just impatient and tired of losing which i understand of course.

 

[sactowndog]

I think this is a good test to see how Monte's evaluation skills are overall. And let's be honest, at 9, it's pretty much a coinflip at best on whether you get a rotation player, a bust or you find the one guy everyone missed. I have no clue but I have a pretty good feeling he won't be the bust.

right but to be a good pick at 9 not being a bust isn’t the measure. In the lottery, especially top 10, you should be getting a long term starter. That means he has to be better than Fox or Hali or you can trade him for a starter. It’s certainly possible he isn’t better than Fox, Haliburton or Richardson and doesn’t get the needed time to develop. You certainly saw such a scenario with Holmes and Noel in Philly.

Now the above doesn’t mean either you never take BPA and always draft for fit. You never saw anyone complaining about Haliburton last year. But like most absolute positions ......

 

[sactowndog]

The other thing to consider is if you look at how teams like Boston and San Antonio draft, they often take SF/Larger Wing type players in the front part of the draft and guards in the back of the draft. Height isn’t always the best measure because length matters but look at Boston’s picks
6 Marcus Smart guard/wing
16 Rosier small guard
28 RJ Hunter small guard
3 Jaylen Brown large wing
16 Gershwin large wing
23 Zizic Big
3 Tatum large wing
27 Williams Big
14 Langeford guard
20 Thybulle wing
22 Grant williams wing
14 Nesmith large wing
26 Pritchard guard

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I think this is a good test to see how Monte's evaluation skills are overall. And let's be honest, at 9, it's pretty much a coinflip at best on whether you get a rotation player, a bust or you find the one guy everyone missed. I have no clue but I have a pretty good feeling he won't be the bust.

I’m not making an argument for or against the bolded portion. Just an honest question to ponder.

Assuming the statement to be true, why are lottery picks considered as valuable as they are?

 

[SacTownKid]

Obviously we can't judge by a summer league game but Moody does not look like he is going to contribute immediately. That might be ok if he is stashed away on the Warriors but if you're drafting for need and the player is a 2-3 year project I don't get how that beats going BPA (if your board is different) and making a trade for need.

I'd find it difficult to see Moody or Kuminga get much burn, that is a team loaded with wings. The fact is the Warriors loaded up on a value position with the next draft from the initial looks of it being pretty darn light on those types.

 

[SacTownKid]

right but to be a good pick at 9 not being a bust isn’t the measure. In the lottery, especially top 10, you should be getting a long term starter. That means he has to be better than Fox or Hali or you can trade him for a starter. It’s certainly possible he isn’t better than Fox, Haliburton or Richardson and doesn’t get the needed time to develop. You certainly saw such a scenario with Holmes and Noel in Philly.

Now the above doesn’t mean either you never take BPA and always draft for fit. You never saw anyone complaining about Haliburton last year. But like most absolute positions ......

Yeah, there was no BPA at 9. And the craziness a few picks right after the range of the true BPA's showed it. And the issue is still what happens long term when you draft 3 players who all play the same basic spot. Can you afford to keep them all if they do live up to the hype? Or even if 1 is a minimized bench player but another team sees the potential?

 

[Dime Dropper]

Yeah, there was no BPA at 9. And the craziness a few picks right after the range of the true BPA's showed it. And the issue is still what happens long term when you draft 3 players who all play the same basic spot. Can you afford to keep them all if they do live up to the hype? Or even if 1 is a minimized bench player but another team sees the potential?

BPA is subjective, dude, it's not decided by mock drafts (which are literally someone's opinion, and often following the lead of other mock drafts).

Saying there was no BPA at 9 doesn't make sense. Was Davion BPA? No idea, but Monte thought he was, and that's the whole point of going BPA. Now we have to wait and see if his talent evaluation is right. If so, he needs to figure out the rest of the roster to accommodate that.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I hate to say it, but if there was a consensus BPA at #9 this year, it was probably Mitchell. As I tried to make clear in my previous post, you are confusing two ideas: 1) Taking a bad player who you think will be good a player and 2) Taking who you think is the best player when he contributes to a positional logjam. #1 is always a bad outcome, regardless of whether there is a positional logjam or not. #2 is almost always a good outcome as long as the player you think is the best player turns out to be close to the best player.

My draft would probably have been Jalen Johnson given the players available at #9 (and I would have been tempted by Isaiah Todd, particularly if he had better draft stock). Once Wagner went off the board, I probably would haave tried to trade down for something like OKC's 16+18, where both of those players would have been available, as well as Sengun. But I'm not GM. And if Monte thought that Davion was the clear BPA, that's who he should pick, regardless of fit. That's what I assume happened.

Davion was in no way a reach - he was being mocked as high as #7. If the major consequence of the logjam is that we had to send off an OK backup PG for a backup center, that's really not a huge deal.

Thank you for posting this so I don't have to. I think people are misunderstanding the concept of BPA. Mitchell would not have been my pick, I agree with your post 100%, but I am fine with Mitchell because it demonstrates Monte is a BPA guy. Whether he will be right or not remains to be seen, but I absolutely want a GM who has BPA philosophy.

I love Mitchell's game, I just didn't have him as BPA. But it's clear he will bring positive attributes to the team that are sorely needed. So let's see if Monte was indeed right about him.

 

[Woot!]

If Moody is the next Mikal Bridges while we're stuck with Pat Bev off the bench.. yeah it's going to be annoying that random Kings fans once again saw the right pick over a GM getting paid millions of dollars. But if Moody is the next Mikal Bridges while Mitchell is making the All-defensive team every year? I don't think fans will really care all that much on passing on Moody.

Actually, I just want Mitchell to be very good; I don't much care how Moody or any other player not-chosen does. Similarly, if Bagley were a building block player for the Kings - as Ayton is for the Suns - I'd be fine w/his being not as good as Luka.

Many of us are hoping desperately that Monte can get rid of Marvin for a bag (haha) o' chips this offseason while also hoping a Bags/Buddy trade can bring back someone who can play .... the role Marvin was supposed to play! For me, *that* stings much worse than whatever Luka's doing.

 

[TaxMan]

BPA is subjective, dude, it's not decided by mock drafts (which are literally someone's opinion, and often following the lead of other mock drafts).

Saying there was no BPA at 9 doesn't make sense. Was Davion BPA? No idea, but Monte thought he was, and that's the whole point of going BPA. Now we have to wait and see if his talent evaluation is right. If so, he needs to figure out the rest of the roster to accommodate that.

I would take your statement on mock drafts one step further….they aren’t necessarily even the author’s opinion on best player, but their best guess at where a player will be drafted. Sure those are two concepts that are related, but they are developed by trying to play the tea leaves and sort through all the rumors and smoke that is blown up their ass by front offices. James Bouknight started the draft “season” going in the teens, rose in the mocks, and then ended up in the original range estimated. He didn’t rise in the rankings because some draft expert was truly refining their book on him. He generated rumored momentum and it took hold in the later mocks. The mocks all have a life of their own, partly just to drive eyeballs and clicks.

 

[sactowndog]

Thank you for posting this so I don't have to. I think people are misunderstanding the concept of BPA. Mitchell would not have been my pick, I agree with your post 100%, but I am fine with Mitchell because it demonstrates Monte is a BPA guy. Whether he will be right or not remains to be seen, but I absolutely want a GM who has BPA philosophy.

I love Mitchell's game, I just didn't have him as BPA. But it's clear he will bring positive attributes to the team that are sorely needed. So let's see if Monte was indeed right about him.

The problem with what people are expousing is if you continue to draft 9-12 and you religiously draft BPA: you will almost for sure have a team filled with 6’ 4” and down guards. Why? Because the rest of the league places a priority on hard to find large wings and will take them first.

Examples: Toronto taking Barnes before Suggs. San Antonio taking Vassell over Haliburton, Boston’s entire draft strategy. Chicago taking taking Patrick Williams at 4.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424034203054878724

 

[joemama]

Shams Charania

@ShamsCharania
Australia’s Aron Baynes was missing from the Boomers’ medal podium in Tokyo. Tough news: Sources say Baynes remains in the hospital with severe nerve damage in his neck, an injury more significant than initially diagnosed, and could miss the entire 2021-22 season.

 

[The_Jamal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424034203054878724

This is the not nearly as good brother, but I'd still pick him up and trade for Cody.

 

[Double-K]

I’m not making an argument for or against the boldest portion. Just an honest question to ponder.

Assuming the statement to be true, why are lottery picks considered as valuable as they are?

It is a question that I still couldn't find an answer for, where a lot of fans would rather take a gamble on unproven rookies (and by doing so, gambling on our front office's ability to pick them) over a seasoned NBA player who not only can contribute right away but also have proven to be doing so the season prior.

I understand the way a good rookie can change the franchise, I've witnessed Haliburton last season. But if you look at the track record, you'll know that the odds are low to find that generational talent in the NBA draft.

 

[Warhawk]

It is a question that I still couldn't find an answer for, where a lot of fans would rather take a gamble on unproven rookies (and by doing so, gambling on our front office's ability to pick them) over a seasoned NBA player who not only can contribute right away but also have proven to be doing so the season prior.

I understand the way a good rookie can change the franchise, I've witnessed Haliburton last season. But if you look at the track record, you'll know that the odds are low to find that generational talent in the NBA draft.

I think it is a couple of things....

• Draft picks have generally lower costs than established quality vets on the open market and are under team control for a set time.
• It is easier to stock up on numerous picks if your fan base can withstand losing lots of games for a few years. This means you have more shots at getting picks "right".
• There are no guarantees that any established player you trade for or pick up in free agency will effectively mesh with the rest of the team.
• Some just like the spectacle or process of the draft and the gambling aspect of it. It's almost like a lottery ticket with a few of the first numbers scratched off, and you are hoping the rest of the numbers match the ones you need to "win".

I'm in the camp that I'd typically rather have a young proven vet than lottery picks, but those players are often the hardest to get, aren't they?

 

[The_Jamal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424026623490265093

They already cut Caleb, but I'd be incredibly interested in Jalen McDaniels and Cody Martin if they were shopping them or if they were just planning to release them.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424049683866038275

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1424026623490265093

They already cut Caleb, but I'd be incredibly interested in Jalen McDaniels and Cody Martin if they were shopping them or if they were just planning to release them.

McDaniels does fit pretty much every single metric Monte seems to be looking for in a player.