[Game] Kings vs. Trail Blazers 10/19/2022 7pm Pacific 10pm Eastern

Predict the final result of tonight's game


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It's hard to imagine Barnes and Holmes having much value at all right now unfortunately
I know one game but I'm most concerned about Barnes right now. We can rehab Holmes value but we either are stuck with a declining Barnes or he figures his game out and contributes on the court or via trade. But yeah I am not seeing someone who offers a playoff team anything right now.
 
I think that was part of the problem. KZ was supposed to defend them but he was struggling. Barnes has to take a second tier offensive player defensively.
Like PDX said, if you can't trust Barnes to at least be average vs a Grant/Hart, how the hell do you expect him to hold up to actual elite tier offensive players?

We'll see what happens here going forward, but I was already pretty against giving a 31 year old Barnes an extension this off-season with him coming off 2 of the best offensive seasons of his career. If the lateral quickness is gone, you just can't keep him
 
Glad to see the board has rallied around a new scapegoat. I was thinking it would be Fox, now that Buddy is gone, but looks like the board has settled on HB. Pretty typical. There is always a bad guy on this board. And that isn't to say that Barnes might not be the weak link; just seems like it is awfully quick to have assigned a new scapegoat.
Whenever there is a loss, fans experience negative feelings and they tend to dump that emotional poison on some scapegoat to get temporary relief.

Athletes, like all people, will have their off days and can perform only what they are capable of doing on that particular day. Everyone knows HB is a role player, and to expect a star level consistency from him is naivety at best. If you have a dog, don't expect it to meow like a cat.
 
Gonna be honest, I don't think this is bad. This is basically the last season the Kings will operate under the cap (Before a Sabonis extension, and then Fox will have his mega extension). There are plenty of really really nice 3/4 types in RFA that would fit this team super well. Having money heading into FA with basically all the core signed long-term is a great spot to be in.
Assuming we remove all of our cap holds (Barnes, Davis, etc.) and considering the 2023 SAC 1st cap hold (assuming we get the 7th pick based off last year), we'll have ~$18.6 mil in cap space next year with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter / Monk
SF - Murray / Moneke
PF - Okpala
C - Sabonis / Holmes
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd

...that should give us some room to try and find a SF/PF that will fit with this core longer term. Some notable FAs that I'm sure we're keeping an eye on this year:
  • Jerami Grant (28)
  • Christian Wood (27)
  • Cam Johnson (26)
  • Jalen McDaniels (24)
  • Isaiah Roby (24)
  • PJ Washington (24)
  • Cam Reddish (23)
  • Paul Reed (23)
  • Grant Williams (23)
  • Jaxson Hayes (22)

Obviously, some of the players listed above would have to have a breakout season for us to consider them at starting SF/PF but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 had a solid season.

Having said all of that, the 2024 offseason is still an option to sign a notable free agent if we sign players to expiring deals in the 2023 offseason. If Sabonis signs a max extension in the offseason (which he shouldn't do since he can only get ~$104.9 mil over 4 years) or if he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, it will either result in a $23.3 mil cap hit (if he signs an extension) or a $29.1 mil cap hold (if he waits to resign), but let's just say he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, that leaves us with ~$21.9 mil in cap space during the 2024 offseason (assuming Holmes opts in). If Holmes opts out (or we trade him for cap space prior to this offseason), that leaves us with ~$33.7 mil in cap space with the following players still under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd

But even if we resigned Sabonis to the max during the 2024 offseason, we still could have a lot of cap space during the 2025 offseason if we are maintaining flexibility with the contracts we have signed in 2023 and 2024. For the 2025 season, Sabonis would be making $44.2 mil, Fox would be making $37.1 mil, Huerter would be making $18.0 mil, Murray would be making $11.1 mil, our 2023 SAC 1st would be making $7.2 mil (assuming it was the 7th pick), Mitchell would have a cap hold of $12.3 mil, and our 2025 SAC 1st would have a cap hold of $7.2 mil (assuming it was the 7th pick). If the salary cap jumps up to $171 mil like some are anticipating, we could have ~$27.6 mil in cap space with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd / 2025 SAC 1st / 2025 SAC 2nd / 2025 POR 2nd



TLDR: McNair could have ample cap space in 2023, 2024, and 2025 which maybe allows him to be patient and sign someone notable when the timing is right.
 
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Assuming we remove all of our cap holds (Barnes, Davis, etc.) and considering the 2023 SAC 1st cap hold, I think we'll have ~$22 mil in cap space next year with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter / Monk
SF - Murray / Moneke
PF - Okpala
C - Sabonis / Holmes
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd

...that should give us some room to try and find a SF/PF that will fit with this core longer term. Some notable FAs that I'm sure we're keeping an eye on this year:
  • Jerami Grant (28)
  • Christian Wood (27)
  • Cam Johnson (26)
  • Jalen McDaniels (24)
  • Isaiah Roby (24)
  • PJ Washington (24)
  • Cam Reddish (23)
  • Paul Reed (23)
  • Grant Williams (23)
  • Jaxson Hayes (22)

Obviously, some of the players listed above would have to have a breakout season for us to consider them at starting SF/PF but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 had a solid season.

Having said all of that, the 2024 offseason is still an option to sign a notable free agent if we sign players to expiring deals in the 2023 offseason. If Sabonis signs a max extension in the offseason (which he shouldn't do since he can only get ~$105 mil over 4 years) or if he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, it will either result in a $23.3 mil cap hit (if he signs an extension) or a $29.1 mil cap hold (if he waits to resign), but let's just say he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, that leaves us with ~$29 mil in cap space during the 2024 offseason (assuming Holmes opts in). If Holmes opts out (or we trade him for cap space prior to this offseason), that leaves us with ~$40-42 mil in cap space with the following players still under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd

But even if we resigned Sabonis to the max during the 2024 offseason, we still could have a lot of cap space during the 2025 offseason if we are maintaining flexibility with the contracts we have signed in 2023 and 2024. For the 2025 season, Sabonis would be making $44 mil, Fox would be making $37 mil, Huerter would be making $18 mil, Murray would be making $11 mil, our 2023 SAC 1st would be making around $5 mil (I'm guessing), Mitchell would have a cap hold of $12 mil, and our 2025 SAC 1st would have a cap hold of $3-5 mil (I'm guessing). If the salary cap jumps up to $171 mil like some are anticipating, we could have ~$35 mil in cap space with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd / 2025 SAC 1st / 2025 SAC 2nd / 2025 POR 2nd



TLDR: McNair could have ample cap space in 2023, 2024, and 2025 which maybe allows him to be patient and sign someone notable when the timing is right.
Really nice work. I'm extremely high on this class of 4's that could be amazing long-term fits next to Sabonis (PJ, Cam Johnson, Grant Williams) and I think all address serious needs. The nice things is it's a no-harm, no-foul as they're RFA and we can try again next season
 
Assuming we remove all of our cap holds (Barnes, Davis, etc.) and considering the 2023 SAC 1st cap hold, I think we'll have ~$22 mil in cap space next year with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter / Monk
SF - Murray / Moneke
PF - Okpala
C - Sabonis / Holmes
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd

...that should give us some room to try and find a SF/PF that will fit with this core longer term. Some notable FAs that I'm sure we're keeping an eye on this year:
  • Jerami Grant (28)
  • Christian Wood (27)
  • Cam Johnson (26)
  • Jalen McDaniels (24)
  • Isaiah Roby (24)
  • PJ Washington (24)
  • Cam Reddish (23)
  • Paul Reed (23)
  • Grant Williams (23)
  • Jaxson Hayes (22)

Obviously, some of the players listed above would have to have a breakout season for us to consider them at starting SF/PF but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 had a solid season.

Having said all of that, the 2024 offseason is still an option to sign a notable free agent if we sign players to expiring deals in the 2023 offseason. If Sabonis signs a max extension in the offseason (which he shouldn't do since he can only get ~$105 mil over 4 years) or if he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, it will either result in a $23.3 mil cap hit (if he signs an extension) or a $29.1 mil cap hold (if he waits to resign), but let's just say he waits until the 2024 offseason to resign, that leaves us with ~$29 mil in cap space during the 2024 offseason (assuming Holmes opts in). If Holmes opts out (or we trade him for cap space prior to this offseason), that leaves us with ~$40-42 mil in cap space with the following players still under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd

But even if we resigned Sabonis to the max during the 2024 offseason, we still could have a lot of cap space during the 2025 offseason if we are maintaining flexibility with the contracts we have signed in 2023 and 2024. For the 2025 season, Sabonis would be making $44 mil, Fox would be making $37 mil, Huerter would be making $18 mil, Murray would be making $11 mil, our 2023 SAC 1st would be making around $5 mil (I'm guessing), Mitchell would have a cap hold of $12 mil, and our 2025 SAC 1st would have a cap hold of $3-5 mil (I'm guessing). If the salary cap jumps up to $171 mil like some are anticipating, we could have ~$35 mil in cap space with the following players under contract...

PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Huerter
SF - Murray
PF -
C - Sabonis
Picks - 2023 SAC 1st / 2023 IND 2nd / 2023 SAC 2nd / 2024 DAL 2nd / 2025 SAC 1st / 2025 SAC 2nd / 2025 POR 2nd



TLDR: McNair could have ample cap space in 2023, 2024, and 2025 which maybe allows him to be patient and sign someone notable when the timing is right.

I have not double checked this, but did you factor in cap holds?
 
I have not double checked this, but did you factor in cap holds?
I did via off the top of the head math so could be off here and there.

EDIT: I went through it more thoroughly with the cap holds, rookie contracts, etc. and updated my original post. It dropped the cap space a bit across the years.
 
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I agree, and the question is now does Brown eventually find himself at the crossroads of going all in on talent or fit? I watched back the preseason games at some point and did see that yes, KZ is miles ahead of Murray defensively so I get it. This is a talent based league though. Hopefully Domas comes back to life and this isn't an issue but if and when it becomes one what Brown does and how he responds could determine whether this franchise is changing direction by this season or not. I'm not sold on this being a team that bases everything they want to do around being a top defensive team in the league. They simply don't have the tools overall although they should be solid for sure. Last nights defensive shortcomings literally came from their offensive hiccups. Something to watch for sure.
It's going to be impossible for Brown to keep Murray out of the starting lineup. As of today, KZ in the starting lineup seems forced.

A lot of the allure of drafting Murray is how well he compliments Fox and Sabonis. If the purpose of KZ being on the floor is to cause a slow start for the other team's best player, might he also cause a slow start for our best players when considering Murray is a much better fit? I think he might.
 
It's going to be impossible for Brown to keep Murray out of the starting lineup. As of today, KZ in the starting lineup seems forced.

A lot of the allure of drafting Murray is how well he compliments Fox and Sabonis. If the purpose of KZ being on the floor is to cause a slow start for the other team's best player, might he also cause a slow start for our best players when considering Murray is a much better fit? I think he might.
At this point Barnes is a weaker link than KZ.
 
At this point Barnes is a weaker link than KZ.
Not a chance. KZ is going to be the guy other teams leave on offense. And early on those turnovers that lead to easy points were largely because the Blazers played into the passing lanes. Until he can prove he's a threat either with the ball or as a spacer teams will take the trade off. That's why if Barnes and Domas aren't aggressive or hitting this team is going to be in trouble. We saw Boston choose defense in a crucial game 7 mistake over shooting and spacing. It may have cost them a ring. KZ might be fine as is but as said, if you are going to run a Lakers style role guy at 4 then Domas is going to have Shaq his way through the game. 18 ppg might not cut it. Right now, Brown has time to test things out. However, if and when it becomes a question of talent vs. need, or in this case, shooting vs. defense he has to make the call sooner than later. Oddly enough, Brown went so far as to find offense that he played about the smallest lineup he could with Davion, Monk, and TD out there with Barnes IIRC. It was bad, really bad and that's probably why Barnes took a hit on +/- in that game but that may have been partly that bad because their opponent is so huge on the wing. We'll see.
 
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